I agree with you and see success as just pure luck.Basically, yes.
It's kinda like the end of the Matrix movies. The Architect asks the Oracle "How long do you think this peace will last?" to which she flatly replies "As long as it can."
Maybe that's a tad fatalistic, but victory is context-specific and not always even permanent. You beat your opposition, you basically win whatever argument you were having. That may or may not put you in a slightly better position for the next argument, or the next arguer, or the next non-military social conflict that follows.
Democracy was invented to take the bloodshed out of those conflicts and transform what WOULD have been a military campaign into a purely political one. In the same sense, just because you won in the polls today doesn't mean you're going to win next time.
Nothing to get too excited about.
Success often hinges on good fortune, but all the luck in the world can't help the person who is unprepared to take advantage of the opportunity.