The effects of warming: Kilodeaths

[steve_bank]

The ignorant conservatives do not know the defense between local weather and global climate republican from congress walked up to the podium wih a snowball in his hand during a big snow storm and said how can there be global warming.

The main indicator is ocean water temperatures which are rising globally with consequences. It may seem trivial to tye ignorant, coral are dyeing off from rising temperature. Coral provides habitat for marine life at the bottom of the food chain. Up the food chain are salmon, haddock, and the rest of the commercial fishing we eat.

Cold waters sinking at the poles drives major ocean currents, like the one passing by Europe. If the current stalls it will affect European climate and fishing. The current churns nutrients in the water.

The local weather in Greenland could have been above average without a big melt.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The mainstream and dare I say it, Leftist media are always ready for news selling fake alarmism like "Record temperatures broken by Climate Change." But ponder this for a second..................Last time it was this hot was in 1938. Did we have GW/CC/CD in 1938? If so, why wasn't anything done about it then?

It wasn't this hot in 1938. Perhaps in one city it was, but I'm talking about the whole world, not just a point on it.

Arctic was warmer in 1940
"Temperatures in the Arctic and in Greenland were warmer by up to 3 Fahrenheit degrees in the late 1930s and early 1940s than they are at present" (Christopher Monckton)

Can you prove otherwise?

He's not even a scientist!

https://skepticalscience.com/Monckton_Myths_arg.htm

 

[fromderinside]

The mainstream and dare I say it, Leftist media are always ready for news selling fake alarmism like "Record temperatures broken by Climate Change." But ponder this for a second..................Last time it was this hot was in 1938. Did we have GW/CC/CD in 1938? If so, why wasn't anything done about it then?


Arctic was warmer in 1940
"Temperatures in the Arctic and in Greenland were warmer by up to 3 Fahrenheit degrees in the late 1930s and early 1940s than they are at present" (Christopher Monckton)

Can you prove otherwise?

Eyup.

https://skepticalscience.com/Monckton_Myths_arg.htm

From which we get:

As real scientists tend to be very skeptical beasts, it is important that we assess his claim for quality to ensure that it is not based solely on a cherry-pick. In order to do so I ran clear climate code’s Gistemp reimplementation using Python and also their scripts for adding in more data from Environment Canada that was otherwise not included in the Gistemp analysis. This implementation is likely the best representation of the trends in the Arctic as it assumes that stations in the high Arctic follow similar trends to stations in the low Arctic whereas other methods (HadCrut) exclude these regions thereby assuming they have similar trends to the global trend. The accuracy of the reconstruction can be validated through comparison with the various reanalysis datasets which are reassessments of temperature changes combining meteorological stations, satellite measurements, weather balloon data and meteorological models. I have included the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for comparison.
[h=3]So what do the results show?[/h]

Figure 1: Temperature Anomalies (1951-1981 Baseline) for the Arctic region (64-90°N) over the past 130 years according to ccc-gistemp analysis and NCEP reanalysis.

 

[JohnG]

Eyup.



From which we get:

As real scientists tend to be very skeptical beasts, it is important that we assess his claim for quality to ensure that it is not based solely on a cherry-pick. In order to do so I ran clear climate code’s Gistemp reimplementation using Python and also their scripts for adding in more data from Environment Canada that was otherwise not included in the Gistemp analysis. This implementation is likely the best representation of the trends in the Arctic as it assumes that stations in the high Arctic follow similar trends to stations in the low Arctic whereas other methods (HadCrut) exclude these regions thereby assuming they have similar trends to the global trend. The accuracy of the reconstruction can be validated through comparison with the various reanalysis datasets which are reassessments of temperature changes combining meteorological stations, satellite measurements, weather balloon data and meteorological models. I have included the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for comparison.
[h=3]So what do the results show?[/h]

Figure 1: Temperature Anomalies (1951-1981 Baseline) for the Arctic region (64-90°N) over the past 130 years according to ccc-gistemp analysis and NCEP reanalysis.

That chart shows a good example of P Hacking. That's where you take any data set that goes up or down in a jagged line (like weather, economy...) and snip out a portion that briefly goes in the direction that supports your claim.

There may have been a period where the temperature dropped, but the overall trend is upward.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Eyup.



From which we get:

As real scientists tend to be very skeptical beasts, it is important that we assess his claim for quality to ensure that it is not based solely on a cherry-pick. In order to do so I ran clear climate code’s Gistemp reimplementation using Python and also their scripts for adding in more data from Environment Canada that was otherwise not included in the Gistemp analysis. This implementation is likely the best representation of the trends in the Arctic as it assumes that stations in the high Arctic follow similar trends to stations in the low Arctic whereas other methods (HadCrut) exclude these regions thereby assuming they have similar trends to the global trend. The accuracy of the reconstruction can be validated through comparison with the various reanalysis datasets which are reassessments of temperature changes combining meteorological stations, satellite measurements, weather balloon data and meteorological models. I have included the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for comparison.
[h=3]So what do the results show?[/h]

Figure 1: Temperature Anomalies (1951-1981 Baseline) for the Arctic region (64-90°N) over the past 130 years according to ccc-gistemp analysis and NCEP reanalysis.

That chart shows a good example of P Hacking. That's where you take any data set that goes up or down in a jagged line (like weather, economy...) and snip out a portion that briefly goes in the direction that supports your claim.

There may have been a period where the temperature dropped, but the overall trend is upward.

How is this p-hacking? The graph shows the whole time frame where we have been burning fossil fuels to a substantial degree.

 

[skepticalbip]

That chart shows a good example of P Hacking. That's where you take any data set that goes up or down in a jagged line (like weather, economy...) and snip out a portion that briefly goes in the direction that supports your claim.

There may have been a period where the temperature dropped, but the overall trend is upward.

How is this p-hacking? The graph shows the whole time frame where we have been burning fossil fuels to a substantial degree.

For starters, it uses a starting point as reference just after the end of the 'little ice age", just as the Earth was emerging from the coldest period in the entire Holocene.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That chart shows a good example of P Hacking. That's where you take any data set that goes up or down in a jagged line (like weather, economy...) and snip out a portion that briefly goes in the direction that supports your claim.

There may have been a period where the temperature dropped, but the overall trend is upward.

How is this p-hacking? The graph shows the whole time frame where we have been burning fossil fuels to a substantial degree.

For starters, it uses a starting point as reference just after the end of the 'little ice age", just as the Earth was emerging from the coldest period in the entire Holocene.

It's 20 years after the end of the little ice age. I also suspect that's as far back as the data goes.

 

[skepticalbip]

For starters, it uses a starting point as reference just after the end of the 'little ice age", just as the Earth was emerging from the coldest period in the entire Holocene.

It's 20 years after the end of the little ice age. I also suspect that's as far back as the data goes.

Actually there is data back a few billion years (though far from detailed), a bit more reliable data over the last several million years (tracing the glaciation and inter-glacial periods of the current ice age), better data back to the beginning of the Holocene.

 

[steve_bank]

Polar ice cores show climate lo ver time including atmospheric gases.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core

An ice core is a core sample that is typically removed from an ice sheet or a high mountain glacier. Since the ice forms from the incremental buildup of annual layers of snow, lower layers are older than upper, and an ice core contains ice formed over a range of years. Cores are drilled with hand augers (for shallow holes) or powered drills; they can reach depths of over two miles (3.2 km), and contain ice up to 800,000 years old.

The physical properties of the ice and of material trapped in it can be used to reconstruct the climate over the age range of the core. The proportions of different oxygen and hydrogen isotopes provide information about ancient temperatures, and the air trapped in tiny bubbles can be analysed to determine the level of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide. Since heat flow in a large ice sheet is very slow, the borehole temperature is another indicator of temperature in the past. These data can be combined to find the climate model that best fits all the available data.

Impurities in ice cores may depend on location. Coastal areas are more likely to include material of marine origin, such as sea salt ions. Greenland ice cores contain layers of wind-blown dust that correlate with cold, dry periods in the past, when cold deserts were scoured by wind. Radioactive elements, either of natural origin or created by nuclear testing, can be used to date the layers of ice. Some volcanic events that were sufficiently powerful to send material around the globe have left a signature in many different cores that can be used to synchronise their time scales.

Ice cores have been studied since the early 20th century, and several cores were drilled as a result of the International Geophysical Year (1957–1958). Depths of over 400 m were reached, a record which was extended in the 1960s to 2164 m at Byrd Station in Antarctica. Soviet ice drilling projects in Antarctica include decades of work at Vostok Station, with the deepest core reaching 3769 m. Numerous other deep cores in the Antarctic have been completed over the years, including the West Antarctic Ice Sheet project, and cores managed by the British Antarctic Survey and the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition. In Greenland, a sequence of collaborative projects began in the 1970s with the Greenland Ice Sheet Project; there have been multiple follow-up projects, with the most recent, the East Greenland Ice-Core Project, expected to complete a deep core in east Greenland in 2020.

Glacial periods appear periodic. A long standing puzzle was how human ancestors crossed the African desert. Relatively recent archaeological evidence shows the region is periodically wet. Cave drawings depict water, plants, and animals.

None of the know periodic climate variations account for the rise in temperature from the start of the Industrial Revolution.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age

 

[fromderinside]

I knew there were sufficient hammers available here to nail down this Christopher Monckton fraud. Good work. Looks real good. Thanks.

 

[angelo]

The mainstream and dare I say it, Leftist media are always ready for news selling fake alarmism like "Record temperatures broken by Climate Change." But ponder this for a second..................Last time it was this hot was in 1938. Did we have GW/CC/CD in 1938? If so, why wasn't anything done about it then?

But that was a single unusually hot year. Recent years were all unusually hot. Statistics means something, angelo.

Arguing with angelo on this is about as nonsensical in itself, as denial about the Earth warming. We are witnessing records over periods of a month or a year with temperatures.

Locally, in NE Ohio, will we have had 13 days that were more than 10 degrees warmer than average. During Xmas week, we had one day with a high below 50! We were 20 degrees above average for the week.

I was mulching leaves after Xmas. In 2004, leaves were picked up on Election Day.

*waits for angelo to swap to... 'it is warming but mankind is causing it' part of AGW denial argument cycle*

I also deny the existence of any gods!

 

[fromderinside]

Nope. Not working.

 

[steve_bank]

I knew there were sufficient hammers available here to nail down this Christopher Monckton fraud. Good work. Looks real good. Thanks.

Elementary my dear doctor.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

For starters, it uses a starting point as reference just after the end of the 'little ice age", just as the Earth was emerging from the coldest period in the entire Holocene.

It's 20 years after the end of the little ice age. I also suspect that's as far back as the data goes.

Actually there is data back a few billion years (though far from detailed), a bit more reliable data over the last several million years (tracing the glaciation and inter-glacial periods of the current ice age), better data back to the beginning of the Holocene.

No--this is specifically arctic temperature, not world temperature. I could imagine some tree ring data from such areas but what else will indicate the local temperature?

 

[angelo]

Actually there is data back a few billion years (though far from detailed), a bit more reliable data over the last several million years (tracing the glaciation and inter-glacial periods of the current ice age), better data back to the beginning of the Holocene.

No--this is specifically arctic temperature, not world temperature. I could imagine some tree ring data from such areas but what else will indicate the local temperature?

If it's any help. Here in very sunny Perth Western Australia, the temperature right now is a very cool, [ for this time of the year] 18C with the maximum reaching a scorching 24C at 2pm today. Looking at the forecast for the next week or so, it may get to 33C on Saturday the 10th of January. This practically the middle of our Summer. Mind you, we have had one 40C day in December so far this Summer.

 

[skepticalbip]

Actually there is data back a few billion years (though far from detailed), a bit more reliable data over the last several million years (tracing the glaciation and inter-glacial periods of the current ice age), better data back to the beginning of the Holocene.

No--this is specifically arctic temperature, not world temperature. I could imagine some tree ring data from such areas but what else will indicate the local temperature?

There are several proxies used for determining paleoclimates. There are ice cores measuring trapped gasses from glaciers around the world from the Alps, Andies, and Himalayas, other than the Arctic. There are ocean bed core samples from around the world that provide several proxies such as diatom species. There is pollen grain analysis from lake beds around the world. Even tree ring proxies take us back better than a thousand years (certainly far enough to have shown the Medieval Warm Period clipped from that chart).

Analysis of trapped gasses gives a much better idea of global temperatures than tree rings because gasses circulate and mix, trees don't.

 

[aupmanyav]

Russia is having a hot summer, India a record breaking winter (for more than a century). Climate, sure, is uncertain.

.. with the maximum reaching a scorching 24C at 2pm ..

Your scorching 24C makes me laugh. Here 42C is norm in summer.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Looks like December 2019 in NE Ohio might have been the warmest on record (45.0 degrees average high)... again... slightly edging the 2015 record (44.3 degrees), which broke the 1889 record by around 3 degrees.

And again, this is the average high temp for the month... not a single day. Xmas week was ridiculously warm with lows above the average highs.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Actually there is data back a few billion years (though far from detailed), a bit more reliable data over the last several million years (tracing the glaciation and inter-glacial periods of the current ice age), better data back to the beginning of the Holocene.

No--this is specifically arctic temperature, not world temperature. I could imagine some tree ring data from such areas but what else will indicate the local temperature?

There are several proxies used for determining paleoclimates. There are ice cores measuring trapped gasses from glaciers around the world from the Alps, Andies, and Himalayas, other than the Arctic. There are ocean bed core samples from around the world that provide several proxies such as diatom species. There is pollen grain analysis from lake beds around the world. Even tree ring proxies take us back better than a thousand years (certainly far enough to have shown the Medieval Warm Period clipped from that chart).

Analysis of trapped gasses gives a much better idea of global temperatures than tree rings because gasses circulate and mix, trees don't.

You're still talking about global temperatures. I agree there are multiple ways to figure that out. What I'm question is whether there is anything to figure out local climates in the absence of vegetation.

 

[steve_bank]

News report, Moscow has no snow for its winter festival.