The long term effect of the failed Trump presidency?

[Harry Bosch]

I'd be the first to admit that HRC was not inspiring as a candidate. I'd have preferred others. But to claim that Sanders knocked everyone's socks off is FALSE. HRC got 55% of the democratic vote. Sanders got 43%. Putin and Trump would have smoked him in the general election....

I'm not arguing that Sanders outperformed HRC. The point is that the response to him was far stronger than anyone imagined. And a large part of that was uhc. So it seems to me, after passing the House abortion, I forget the name, the Cook political report said control of the House was in play. Add to that all the town halls and more favorable coverage, I predict in 2018 Congressional candidates will run on it.

When will it happen? I dunno, you could be right about 30 years…but the Dems, particularly the mainstream Dems like Pelosi are almost as obstructionist as the Repugs.

Yes, Sanders created a lot of excitement. It wasn't just UHC. It was also increasing min wage, free tuition, anti corporate doners, and etc. But the Bernie or bust crowd took the steam out of his sails by helping Trump and Putin. HRC ran a terrible campaign. She lost. Period. But the BoB guys hurt the Sanders movement. They won't be trusted in the future as much...

 

[Horatio Parker]

I'm not arguing that Sanders outperformed HRC. The point is that the response to him was far stronger than anyone imagined. And a large part of that was uhc. So it seems to me, after passing the House abortion, I forget the name, the Cook political report said control of the House was in play. Add to that all the town halls and more favorable coverage, I predict in 2018 Congressional candidates will run on it.

When will it happen? I dunno, you could be right about 30 years…but the Dems, particularly the mainstream Dems like Pelosi are almost as obstructionist as the Repugs.

Yes, Sanders created a lot of excitement. It wasn't just UHC. It was also increasing min wage, free tuition, anti corporate doners, and etc. But the Bernie or bust crowd took the steam out of his sails by helping Trump and Putin. HRC ran a terrible campaign. She lost. Period. But the BoB guys hurt the Sanders movement. They won't be trusted in the future as much...

They won't, tho Sanders shares much of the blame, even while his stock rises.

Still, more people than ever are aware that we pay twice as much for poorer results than the rest of the first world.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yes, Sanders created a lot of excitement. It wasn't just UHC. It was also increasing min wage, free tuition, anti corporate doners, and etc. But the Bernie or bust crowd took the steam out of his sails by helping Trump and Putin. HRC ran a terrible campaign. She lost. Period. But the BoB guys hurt the Sanders movement. They won't be trusted in the future as much...

They won't, tho Sanders shares much of the blame, even while his stock rises.

Sanders got a good deal of his platform into the DNC and he went out and fought for Clinton.

 

[LordKiran]

I anticipate that right-wing talk radio and the tea-party will have (much?) less influence than they did. I've already seen some sign that at least some people are slowly but surely realizing that they were duped...Obama wasn't evil incarnate and Trump wasn't the savior of the country. After a few years many will be claiming that they never supported Trump in the first place. That will be good thing.

I also expect (or maybe just hope) that the political parties will retake control of the process to determine their own candidates. The primaries used to have far less overall impact on the decision, but the way it is now an populist idiot with a tiny plurality can become the front runner. I doubt that either party will let a fiasco like this happen again.

I suspect lawmakers may enact a Cursus Honorum type law for the executive branch. Far easier that way.

 

[Horatio Parker]

Sanders got a good deal of his platform into the DNC and he went out and fought for Clinton.

At the last minute.

 

[Toni]

My sense is that there are a lot of Bernie or Bust people who greatly wished that they had effectively voted. There's nothing to cheer here: the Trump presidency has been a calamity for many, and will continue to hurt many.

The ones I know are still happy they voted for Bernie. Or worse (shudder): Stein.

- - - Updated - - -

Personally, I'm much more worried about what happens if Trump has a successful presidency. That's the real danger here.

 

[Toni]

Sanders got a good deal of his platform into the DNC and he went out and fought for Clinton.

At the last minute.

I don't blame Sanders. I do blame his voters for not actually following him to the Clinton camp. Now, most of them are pretty insulated from the very real harm that will come out of 4 years of Trump. As are most of the people I know who voted for Trump. Despite what they like to claim, most of such voters will be pretty well armored by their oh so white skin and middle class status.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I'm not arguing that Sanders outperformed HRC. The point is that the response to him was far stronger than anyone imagined. And a large part of that was uhc. So it seems to me, after passing the House abortion, I forget the name, the Cook political report said control of the House was in play. Add to that all the town halls and more favorable coverage, I predict in 2018 Congressional candidates will run on it.

When will it happen? I dunno, you could be right about 30 years…but the Dems, particularly the mainstream Dems like Pelosi are almost as obstructionist as the Repugs.

Yes, Sanders created a lot of excitement. It wasn't just UHC. It was also increasing min wage, free tuition, anti corporate doners, and etc. But the Bernie or bust crowd took the steam out of his sails by helping Trump and Putin. HRC ran a terrible campaign. She lost. Period. But the BoB guys hurt the Sanders movement. They won't be trusted in the future as much...

It wasn't the Bernie or Bust crowd. Bernie was the choice of millennials, but the millennials failed to turn out and vote. Which is normal. The younger cohorts rarely turn out to vote in large numbers Young millenial women, who stood to lose the most from a Trump victory were almost absent from the voting booth. Hillary did not get their vote for the same reason. Young voters fail to show up to vote. These voters could have swung the election, had they showed up and voted.

For the Democrats to prevail, they have to learn how to get younger voters to the polls. Older voters, who heavily lean Republican are reliable GOP voters.

For more info...

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/

 

[Tom Sawyer]

My sense is that there are a lot of Bernie or Bust people who greatly wished that they had effectively voted. There's nothing to cheer here: the Trump presidency has been a calamity for many, and will continue to hurt many.

The ones I know are still happy they voted for Bernie. Or worse (shudder): Stein.

- - - Updated - - -

Personally, I'm much more worried about what happens if Trump has a successful presidency. That's the real danger here.

Ya, I don't think there's much danger of that.

 

[LordKiran]

Where were they then? Still buying into neoliberal bullshit about "socialism".

HRC shouldn't have learned that particular lesson.

Surely one reason Sanders resonated so well with voters was uhc.

But it's a long way from over. The Senate repugs have some very fine needle threading to do.

I'd be the first to admit that HRC was not inspiring as a candidate. I'd have preferred others. But to claim that Sanders knocked everyone's socks off is false. HRC got 55% of the democratic vote. Sanders got 43%. Putin and Trump would have smoked him in the general election....

HRC's votes came from red states she never stood a chance of winning anyway. the states that reliably vote blue prefer bernie.

Willing to bet you all my alternate universe speculation points he wouldn't have lost PA.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Hillary beat Sanders in the deep South where Black American voters went for Clinton almost 2 to 1. This is where Bernie lost the primaries.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I'd be the first to admit that HRC was not inspiring as a candidate. I'd have preferred others. But to claim that Sanders knocked everyone's socks off is false. HRC got 55% of the democratic vote. Sanders got 43%. Putin and Trump would have smoked him in the general election....

HRC's votes came from red states she never stood a chance of winning anyway. the states that reliably vote blue prefer bernie.

Willing to bet you all my alternate universe speculation points he wouldn't have lost PA.

California isn't a red state! Here's the deal: most minorities didn't trust Bernie. Most whites tend to vote republican. It's been said (but I don't know if it's true - terrible trumpster line), that HRC lost due to Bernie or bust crowd not voting. I don't know. Haven't seen the evidence. But everyone assumes that if Dems had given the nomination to Sanders, despite losing the electoral and popular vote, that HRC voters just would have come together and voted for Sanders.

Bottom line: I hate the false assumption that there were a bunch of back office dems in a dark smoky room who threw the primary to Sanders. HRC won the democratic fair and square.

 

[LordKiran]

HRC's votes came from red states she never stood a chance of winning anyway. the states that reliably vote blue prefer bernie.

Willing to bet you all my alternate universe speculation points he wouldn't have lost PA.

California isn't a red state! Here's the deal: most minorities didn't trust Bernie. Most whites tend to vote republican. It's been said (but I don't know if it's true - terrible trumpster line), that HRC lost due to Bernie or bust crowd not voting. I don't know. Haven't seen the evidence. But everyone assumes that if Dems had given the nomination to Sanders, despite losing the electoral and popular vote, that HRC voters just would have come together and voted for Sanders.

Bottom line: I hate the false assumption that there were a bunch of back office dems in a dark smoky room who threw the primary to Sanders. HRC won the democratic fair and square.

Maybe, it's just a shame that how we elect nominees is not reflective of how we elect presidents in terms of demographics.

Keep in mind that my assertions that Bernie would have won is based on a few casual assertions I know I can't really prove but have good reason to believe to be correct.

Young voters as mentioned here are notoriously fickle and difficult to please as electorates go, but the right person who comes along and can sway them to vote is all it takes.

 

[Horatio Parker]

HRC's votes came from red states she never stood a chance of winning anyway. the states that reliably vote blue prefer bernie.

Willing to bet you all my alternate universe speculation points he wouldn't have lost PA.

California isn't a red state! Here's the deal: most minorities didn't trust Bernie. Most whites tend to vote republican. It's been said (but I don't know if it's true - terrible trumpster line), that HRC lost due to Bernie or bust crowd not voting. I don't know. Haven't seen the evidence. But everyone assumes that if Dems had given the nomination to Sanders, despite losing the electoral and popular vote, that HRC voters just would have come together and voted for Sanders.

Bottom line: I hate the false assumption that there were a bunch of back office dems in a dark smoky room who threw the primary to Sanders. HRC won the democratic fair and square.

It bears repeating that Trump's margin of victory was 80k votes over five states.

I think the biggest factor was Comey's "reopening" of the Clinton investigation.

 

[LordKiran]

California isn't a red state! Here's the deal: most minorities didn't trust Bernie. Most whites tend to vote republican. It's been said (but I don't know if it's true - terrible trumpster line), that HRC lost due to Bernie or bust crowd not voting. I don't know. Haven't seen the evidence. But everyone assumes that if Dems had given the nomination to Sanders, despite losing the electoral and popular vote, that HRC voters just would have come together and voted for Sanders.

Bottom line: I hate the false assumption that there were a bunch of back office dems in a dark smoky room who threw the primary to Sanders. HRC won the democratic fair and square.

It bears repeating that Trump's margin of victory was 80k votes over five states.

I think the biggest factor was Comey's "reopening" of the Clinton investigation.

I'd argue it was that clinton had that over her head to begin with but hey culpability doesn't have to be one-to-one.

Also people like to throw around the bernie bro's as the reason clinton lost? But here's a much better question:

How much of an impact did TYT's negative pres against clinton contribute to her loss? There's something to be said for spiting the silver medal just because you couldn't get the gold.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

One interesting development from all of this is California's plan to move up their primary to a very early date in the election process. The complaint from California's Democrats is that they vote late, after the issue has all but been decided. They lose influence to the early voting states.

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/328508-california-seeking-to-move-up-presidential-primary

California's top elections official is reportedly looking to move the state's primary contest to an earlier date, arguing the state should not be an "afterthought."
Secretary of State Alex Padilla on Tuesday said he was in support of a bill that would push up California's presidential primary to take place third — after the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“We need to make California, and California issues, much more of a priority for all people seeking the presidency,’’ Padilla told Politico on Tuesday.

----

It's hard to say if this world change the dynamics and boost a Progressive candidate's chances, but it will be interesting to see if California does this.

 

[J842P]

Here's the deal: most minorities didn't trust Bernie.

Nonsense. Most minorities, indeed, most *democratic primary voters*, had never heard of Bernie. The DNC did their damnedest to keep it that way, because they know what everyone in politics knows: the more people get to know Hillary Clinton, the more her support falls. She started out with perhaps the biggest name-recognition a candidate can ever hope for, and a wide-open primary field. The DNC wanted her, and didn't want the same thing that happened in 2008 to happen this time around. And it almost did.

HRC won the democratic fair and square.

Yeah, OK haus. whatever you say...

 

[Will Wiley]

What do you think the long term effect of the Trump presidency will be on US politics?

Close to zero. When things are going downhill people hope that something will change, but it never does just due to one person, even if he is the Pres.

Will US politics look substantially different a decade from now than it would have had Hillary won? Will Democrat politics look different? Will Republican politics look different?

Maybe but it's hard to see why Trump would be responsible

 

[Opoponax]

Bottom line: I hate the false assumption that there were a bunch of back office dems in a dark smoky room who threw the primary to Sanders. HRC won the democratic fair and square.

And quite convincingly at that.

But it was't just Bernie Bros that fucked us. It was people that didn't show up in the same numbers as they did for Obama; purist Greens who thought Hillary wasn't good enough for them; the socially-left Libertarians who thought Trump would be better at turning government into a profitable business (god, that's so fucking stupid, I feel like an idiot just writing it out).

It was a collective hissy fit on the part of uncompromising myopics that played such a crucial role in putting Trump in office. And what really puts some extra stink on that cumulative pile of shit is that they won't admit just how badly they fucked up. It's the same Naderites still denying having anything to do with the election of Dubbya. 100's of thousands of dead, trillions in expenditures, and they'll still whine about how Gore wasn't the perfect candidate/made mistakes in his campaign. It's all so fucking stupid.

 

[SimpleDon]

I recall a few people during the election season, myself included, wondering if a brief Trump presidency could act as a "scorched earth" scenario, destroying the politics in Washington as we new it and creating space for non-mainstream politicians. I imagined the decimation of Hillary's corporate democrats may put more people in Bernie's socialist democrat camp, and I think it has, with Bernie now the most popular politician in the USA. I imagined the Democratic party shifting accordingly, but I don't think that has happened, at least not yet, because the corruption and big donor money is just too strong. I imagined that the Republicans may take a licking from this and create an opening for the Democrats (the Bernie type ones) to sweep in at the next election and then get some real progress happening. I don't see that happening. Democrats are actually still as a group rated very low in the opinion polls, even as Trump burns the whitehouse down, again maybe because the Democrat party refuses to evolve.

What do you think the long term effect of the Trump presidency will be on US politics? Will US politics look substantially different a decade from now than it would have had Hillary won? Will Democrat politics look different? Will Republican politics look different?

It is hard to predict what the effect will be. The failed presidency of George W. Bush had little long lasting impact on US politics and he lead us into the worse terrorist attack the US had ever suffered, a war started supposedly by a mistake and the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. And two of those happened before he was re-elected.

The very fact that Trump was elected tells you all that you need to know about the Democratic party. There is nothing that Trump has done that wasn't predicted before his election. He was dogmatic, authoritarian, inept, naive about government, naive about foreign affairs, naive about Russia, etc. before the election and the Democrats couldn't take advantage of it. They are going to ride post-modernism and identity politics into total irrelevancy, leaving us to the mercies of the corporations and the conspiracy theories of Fox News.