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The MLB 2016 Season Thread

 
 
 
blastula said:
I haven't seen a game yet, but is Pete Rose still on the post game shows? I have to tune in for that.
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Haven't stuck around for post-game myself.

On another note, this series is triggering the fact that the baseball season is about to end, which is a depressing thought. This winter might be the time to finally go through Ken Burns' documentary.
 
With Kluber pitching on short rest and the Cubs being familiar with him, it will be up to Kluber and Roberto Perez to out duel Chicago's bats. And with the not quite as sharp John Lackey up for the Cubs, this may just be a game where both teams score for once. Yes, that is my bold prediction, both teams will score runs. Alas, with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen both relatively fresh from the minimal pitching of last night, Terry Francona will likely use them both again in a close game. Indians up 3-1.
 
The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does

CHICAGO — With a 2-1 World Series deficit and home-field advantage slipping away, the Cubs needed this game. Instead, the Indians soundly defeated the Cubs 7-2 on Saturday night in Game 4, silencing the normally raucous Wrigley crowd and drastically decreasing Chicago’s chance of taking home the championship. In a World Series marked by low scores, Cleveland has shut down the Cubs’ bats more than ever this year.

Pitching has defined this World Series. The average number of runs per game so far has been only 5.5, which is tied with 2015 and 2011 for the lowest total since 1983. Offense is down even more when you take into account the higher regular-season scoring in 2016: This year has seen the largest gap between World Series runs scored and the regular-season average since 1966.

Paradoxically, neither team’s pitchers have been altogether overpowering. In Game 3, an inconsistent strike zone kept both teams from plating many runs. On Saturday, the Indians batters managed to capitalize on mistakes while Corey Kluber kept the Cubs quiet. Kluber’s final line (6 IP, 1 ER) is somewhat deceptive: Throwing on only three days’ rest, his stuff seemed to lack the crispness and velocity that usually characterizes one of the best pitchers in the American League.

But Kluber’s 81 pitches went through the sixth inning, enough to hand the game over to the invincible Cleveland relievers. Outside of a solo home run allowed to Dexter Fowler, the Indians bullpen stopped any further scoring. Between the shaky starters and overpowering relievers, the Indians have totally controlled the Cubs offense. The four World Series games so far have seen the Cubs score only 7 runs, which is a lower total than they’ve racked up in any four consecutive games in the 2016 regular season.

Part of the problem was bad luck and sloppiness on the part of the Cubs. That included two errors by Kris Bryant, the Cubs’ normally sure-handed third baseman. Another problem was a gusting wind that turned at least one probable homer into a double.1 But credit must be given where due: The Indians are executing their gameplan to perfection, getting small but reliable leads and then deploying their absurd bullpen to maintain them.

It will be hard for the Cubs to come back from this 3-1 deficit. As the Cavaliers taught us earlier this year, a 3-1 lead isn’t insurmountable, but Elo rates the Cubs’ the total chance of winning the Series at a measly 15 percent. (That’s a smaller chance than FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model currently gives Donald Trump to win the White House.) But if Chicago is going to have any chance of a Series win, they’ll have to awaken their bats in Sunday’s game.
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Just goes to show: in seven games anything can happen.
 
Cubbies win it 3-2, keep series alive.
 
The series has been a pretty good one. The bats want to rip it, but the pitching is staying just ahead of them. Cleveland was in a real bind that eventually cost them the game, but it could have been much worse. Go Tribe! Let's finish it off in Cleveland. I don't know what in the heck is causing it, but it is supposed to be in the 70s on Tuesday in NE Ohio. Probably a bit chillier by the Lake, but fuck... 60s in November? Good timing for a World Series!
 
The WS is rigged.

/Dodgers fan
 
Alright, this could be it and I think Cleveland will put it away tonight, handily.
 
Was supposed to see Kansas with the MIL tonight. Concert cancelled because Cleveland in World Series.
 
TSwizzle said:
Alright, this could be it and I think Cleveland will put it away tonight, handily.
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I expect a narrow Cub win tonight, and think Cubs winning "handily" is more probable than Indian's winning "handily".

Vegas has it about right. They have Indians favored to win the series because they only need 1 of 2, but have Cubs favored tonight. Home teams with a 3-2 lead are only at 55% odds of winning in Game 6. But Cubs have several advantages over the majority of teams that have been down in this situation. First, they are the generally superior team than Indians with a more reliable and consistent performance over the long season. Second, while both of tonight's pitchers did great in their last outing, Arrietta has been the far more reliable pitcher this season and is on full rest. All that shifts the Cubs to a slight favorite tonight.

Note, if the Cubs do even it up tonight, then none of the historical 1-3 comeback stats against them will mean anything for game 7. That's a gamblers fallacy. Once its 3-3, then none of the odds related to what it was before matters, because almost none of those prior teams down 1-3 got to 3-3.
Game 7 odds would only be a matter of which team was in a better position to win that 1 game and that would favor the Cubs too because of Kluber pitching his 2nd short rest game in week. But that only matters if they win as they should tonight.

Given that Cubs have Arrietta
 
TV and credit cards said:
It's called Indian's Summer.
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No it isn't. Its called unseasonably warm... over and over again. We had a record warm August, September, entire Summer. And the warmth just keeps going. In the 70s in early November. It was seasonable for what, a week or two around here in October? Mosquitoes were bothering me while doing the candy thing Saturday night for Halloween!
 
ronburgundy said:
TSwizzle said:
Alright, this could be it and I think Cleveland will put it away tonight, handily.
Click to expand...

I expect a narrow Cub win tonight, and think Cubs winning "handily" is more probable than Indian's winning "handily".

Vegas has it about right. They have Indians favored to win the series because they only need 1 of 2, but have Cubs favored tonight. Home teams with a 3-2 lead are only at 55% odds of winning in Game 6. But Cubs have several advantages over the majority of teams that have been down in this situation. First, they are the generally superior team than Indians with a more reliable and consistent performance over the long season. Second, while both of tonight's pitchers did great in their last outing, Arrietta has been the far more reliable pitcher this season and is on full rest. All that shifts the Cubs to a slight favorite tonight.

Note, if the Cubs do even it up tonight, then none of the historical 1-3 comeback stats against them will mean anything for game 7. That's a gamblers fallacy. Once its 3-3, then none of the odds related to what it was before matters, because almost none of those prior teams down 1-3 got to 3-3.
Game 7 odds would only be a matter of which team was in a better position to win that 1 game and that would favor the Cubs too because of Kluber pitching his 2nd short rest game in week. But that only matters if they win as they should tonight.

Given that Cubs have Arrietta
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One thing, the game(s) is (are) in Cleveland. And while Cleveland finally won a pro title last Spring for the first time in a long time, this will be like that never happened. Cleveland wants it, as bad as Chicago (likely even more). Chicago has had champions and even a dynasty. Cleveland has the sting of '97 and a tough loss against the Braves in '95 and so many lean years that make Major League 2 seem decent. That crowd will not stop and may be the difference maker. They'll help carry the Indians over the top.
 
ronburgundy said:
TSwizzle said:
Alright, this could be it and I think Cleveland will put it away tonight, handily.
Click to expand...

I expect a narrow Cub win tonight, and think Cubs winning "handily" is more probable than Indian's winning "handily".

Vegas has it about right. They have Indians favored to win the series because they only need 1 of 2, but have Cubs favored tonight. Home teams with a 3-2 lead are only at 55% odds of winning in Game 6. But Cubs have several advantages over the majority of teams that have been down in this situation. First, they are the generally superior team than Indians with a more reliable and consistent performance over the long season. Second, while both of tonight's pitchers did great in their last outing, Arrietta has been the far more reliable pitcher this season and is on full rest. All that shifts the Cubs to a slight favorite tonight.

Note, if the Cubs do even it up tonight, then none of the historical 1-3 comeback stats against them will mean anything for game 7. That's a gamblers fallacy. Once its 3-3, then none of the odds related to what it was before matters, because almost none of those prior teams down 1-3 got to 3-3.
Game 7 odds would only be a matter of which team was in a better position to win that 1 game and that would favor the Cubs too because of Kluber pitching his 2nd short rest game in week. But that only matters if they win as they should tonight.

Given that Cubs have Arrietta
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Indeed, it does look like the set up is for Cleveland to win it in game seven but I think they will go for it tonight and be successful.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
ronburgundy said:
I expect a narrow Cub win tonight, and think Cubs winning "handily" is more probable than Indian's winning "handily".

Vegas has it about right. They have Indians favored to win the series because they only need 1 of 2, but have Cubs favored tonight. Home teams with a 3-2 lead are only at 55% odds of winning in Game 6. But Cubs have several advantages over the majority of teams that have been down in this situation. First, they are the generally superior team than Indians with a more reliable and consistent performance over the long season. Second, while both of tonight's pitchers did great in their last outing, Arrietta has been the far more reliable pitcher this season and is on full rest. All that shifts the Cubs to a slight favorite tonight.

Note, if the Cubs do even it up tonight, then none of the historical 1-3 comeback stats against them will mean anything for game 7. That's a gamblers fallacy. Once its 3-3, then none of the odds related to what it was before matters, because almost none of those prior teams down 1-3 got to 3-3.
Game 7 odds would only be a matter of which team was in a better position to win that 1 game and that would favor the Cubs too because of Kluber pitching his 2nd short rest game in week. But that only matters if they win as they should tonight.

Given that Cubs have Arrietta
Click to expand...
One thing, the game(s) is (are) in Cleveland. And while Cleveland finally won a pro title last Spring for the first time in a long time, this will be like that never happened. Cleveland wants it, as bad as Chicago (likely even more). Chicago has had champions and even a dynasty. Cleveland has the sting of '97 and a tough loss against the Braves in '95 and so many lean years that make Major League 2 seem decent. That crowd will not stop and may be the difference maker. They'll help carry the Indians over the top.
Click to expand...

Cleveland has the same anxious and not all that confident crowd that were at Wrigley, and that cuts both ways. It did little to help the Cubs and might have hurt them. The anxiety was palpable and if Cubs get an early lead tonight will ooze from the stands into the Indian's dugout. Even if one presumes that home-field will boost Indian's chances, Cubs still have the overall edge. Likely bigger factors than home-field, will be whether Baez and Contreras can play like they did in the first two series and not just swing for the fences and the impact of random factors, like whether the Umpire Joe West injects himself into the game and impacts the outcome like he is famous (and widely disliked) for doing.
 
On a side-note, does anybody who visits this thread know of any decent all-around baseball forums?
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
ronburgundy said:
I expect a narrow Cub win tonight, and think Cubs winning "handily" is more probable than Indian's winning "handily".

Vegas has it about right. They have Indians favored to win the series because they only need 1 of 2, but have Cubs favored tonight. Home teams with a 3-2 lead are only at 55% odds of winning in Game 6. But Cubs have several advantages over the majority of teams that have been down in this situation. First, they are the generally superior team than Indians with a more reliable and consistent performance over the long season. Second, while both of tonight's pitchers did great in their last outing, Arrietta has been the far more reliable pitcher this season and is on full rest. All that shifts the Cubs to a slight favorite tonight.

Note, if the Cubs do even it up tonight, then none of the historical 1-3 comeback stats against them will mean anything for game 7. That's a gamblers fallacy. Once its 3-3, then none of the odds related to what it was before matters, because almost none of those prior teams down 1-3 got to 3-3.
Game 7 odds would only be a matter of which team was in a better position to win that 1 game and that would favor the Cubs too because of Kluber pitching his 2nd short rest game in week. But that only matters if they win as they should tonight.

Given that Cubs have Arrietta
Click to expand...
One thing, the game(s) is (are) in Cleveland. And while Cleveland finally won a pro title last Spring for the first time in a long time, this will be like that never happened. Cleveland wants it, as bad as Chicago (likely even more). Chicago has had champions and even a dynasty. Cleveland has the sting of '97 and a tough loss against the Braves in '95 and so many lean years that make Major League 2 seem decent. That crowd will not stop and may be the difference maker. They'll help carry the Indians over the top.
Click to expand...
Or maybe not.
 
Well, an unusual game. The two dolts in the outfield for Cleveland fucked things up a bit when they didn't get the fly ball. So it comes down to game seven. Ooooh the drama ! I'm looking forward to it.
 
When I said home field advantage, I thought at least half the crowd would have been from Cuyahoga County, not Cook County.
 
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