The Remarkable Progress of Renewable Energy

[Tigers!]

It has taken along time but finally a major energy retailer in Australia admits that renewables are not cheaper, now or in the future
Solar energy is not cheaper

I have saying this for a long time to anyone who will listen but always told "but it is cheaper". We are paying an awful lot to go green and it will not get any cheaper.

The then Labour opposition promised in 2022 that electricity prices would be $275cheaper for households by 2025 if they won the election. We eagerly wait the reduction in electricity costs.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Solar doesn't have to be cheaper. Fuck cheaper. It needs to be zero carbon, generally sustainable, and generally provide energy on demand.

I'm sorry Debbie, my daughter. We aimed at saving the planet from mankind caused climate change, but it was going to cost us a little extra money.

 

[bilby]

Solar doesn't have to be cheaper. Fuck cheaper. It needs to be zero carbon, generally sustainable, and generally provide energy on demand.

Until they abolish nightime, that description only fits one generation technology, and it ain't solar.

I'm sorry Debbie, my daughter. We aimed at saving the planet from mankind caused climate change, but it was going to cost us a little extra money.

 

[Tigers!]

Solar doesn't have to be cheaper. Fuck cheaper. It needs to be zero carbon, generally sustainable, and generally provide energy on demand.

I'm sorry Debbie, my daughter. We aimed at saving the planet from mankind caused climate change, but it was going to cost us a little extra money.

If renewables (not just solar. Whilst the article does not directly mention wing much the same pricing constraints apply) cost too much then it will affect industry, commerce, households etc.
Already in Aust. we have what is called energy stress as people are having to choose between power, food, housing costs etc.

 

[Swammerdami]

Sabine Hossenfelder discusses the phase-out of nuclear power in Germany.


An expert report told Parliament that "extending the life of nuclear plants is compatible with safety requirements." Or rather it WOULD have told them that except that some bureaucrat apparently inserted a "NOT" before the word "compatible"! (But Ms. Hossenfelder notes that other mistakes may have doomed the nuclear extension anyway.)

 

[lpetrich]

Energy Transition Hub — Bluesky - a Twitter alternative

Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Uses Electricity - The New York Times - "They’re delivering solar power after dark in California and helping to stabilize grids in other states. And the technology is expanding rapidly."

... Since 2020, California has installed more giant batteries than anywhere in the world apart from China. They can soak up excess solar power during the day and store it for use when it gets dark.

Those batteries play a pivotal role in California’s electric grid, partially replacing fossil fuels in the evening. Between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. on April 30, for example, batteries supplied more than one-fifth of California’s electricity and, for a few minutes, pumped out 7,046 megawatts of electricity, akin to the output from seven large nuclear reactors.

...
Most grid batteries use lithium-ion technology, similar to batteries in smartphones or electric cars. As the electric vehicle industry has expanded over the past decade, battery costs have fallen by 80 percent, making them competitive for large-scale power storage. Federal subsidies have also spurred growth.

As batteries have proliferated, power companies are using them in novel ways, such as handling big swings in electricity generation from solar and wind farms, reducing congestion on transmission lines and helping to prevent blackouts during scorching heat waves.

Great. Now for alternatives to lithium-ion batteries.

California now has 10,000 megawatts of battery capacity on the grid, enough to power 10 million homes for a few hours. Those batteries are “able to very effectively manage that evening ramp where solar is going down and customer demand is increasing,” said John Phipps, executive director of grid operations for the California Independent System Operator, which oversees the state’s grid.

 

[lpetrich]

Renewable energy passes 30% of world’s electricity supply | Renewable energy | The Guardian - "Report says humans may be on brink of cutting fossil fuel generation, even as demand for electricity rises"

Clean electricity has already helped to slow the growth in fossil fuels by almost two-thirds in the past 10 years, according to the report by climate thinktank Ember. It found that renewables have grown from 19% of electricity in 2000 to more than 30% of global electricity last year.

“The renewables future has arrived,” said Dave Jones, Ember’s director of global insights. “Solar, in particular, is accelerating faster than anyone thought possible.”

Solar was the main supplier of electricity growth, according to Ember, adding more than twice as much new electricity generation as coal in 2023.

It was the fastest-growing source of electricity for the 19th consecutive year, and also became the largest source of new electricity for the second year running, after surpassing wind power.

Solar energy is doing much better than I expected a decade ago, when I became interested in renewable energy. At that time, I expected concentrated solar power to be the way to go, and I am very pleasantly surprised to see photovoltaic cells doing so well. That's because they are made like computer chips, though with much more simple designs. That greater simplicity has enabled shortcuts that have made solar panels *very* cheap.

Although fossil fuel use in the world’s electricity system may begin to fall, it continues to play an outsized role in global energy – in transport fuels, heavy industry and heating.

A separate study by the Energy Institute found last year that fossil fuels including oil, gas and coal made up 82% of the world’s primary energy.

So we still have a way to go. But we have something feasible for us to do.

 

[lpetrich]

Second article:
Global renewables approach 30% share in 2023, on the back of solar, EU leadership – Euractiv

2023 may well have been the last time global power sector emissions increase. Without last year’s drought in China, global power emissions would have fallen.

Aside from the megatrend of a power sector inching towards climate neutrality, two things stand out: Europe and solar power.

...
In 2023, 76% more solar panels were installed than in 2022, due to “steep declines in costs, supportive policy environments, technology efficiency improvements, and increased manufacturing capability,” the report finds.

With the world looking to triple its renewable capacity by 2030, solar is expected to carry the day: going from 1.5 terawatts (TW) today, the figure is projected to grow to 6 TW capacity by the end of the decade.

Solar will then make up 55% of all renewables – outpacing wind, despite its ten-year head start, and hydropower, with a century-long head start. Already solar provides more than 10% of annual power generation in 33 countries.

 

[lpetrich]

Renewable Energy: safe, clean, sustainable energy for our future

Third article:
Renewables provided record 30% of global electricity in 2023, Ember says | Reuters

Cutting fossil fuel use and emissions in the power sector is seen as vital to meeting global climate targets. More than 100 countries at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai last year agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

...
More than half of the global additions in solar and wind capacity came in China last year, the report said, with total global solar generation up 23.2% and wind power up 9.8%.

Welcome that China is doing something.

Solar to contribute over 60% of new U.S. electricity generation in 2024 – pv magazine USA

Bill awaiting DeSantis’ OK would end years of renewable energy policies – Sun Sentinel

If signed, the law would reverse 16 years of state policy, finishing the work started by former Gov. Rick Scott and undoing Gov. Charlie Crist’s signature piece of environmental legislation.

Most troubling to environmentalists, it would eliminate any mention of climate change, even though mostly flat Florida is extremely vulnerable to global warming, as already seen with rising waters in the Keys, Miami Beach and Tampa Bay.

The bill (HB 1645) would ban offshore wind power while encouraging exploring emerging technologies in nuclear energy, a frightening prospect to those who remember nuclear plants at Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and Crystal River.

Microsoft announces largest-ever corporate procurement of renewable energy – pv magazine USA - "The tech giant signed on for 10.5 GW of renewable energy with Brookfield Renewable Partners, which may cost more than $11.5 billion to build, according to Bloomberg NEF."

Nicaragua President Daniel Ortega Greenlights Major Solar Power Project - SolarQuarter - "The project, titled the El Photovoltaic Plant, is slated to boast a capacity of 67.35 MW and will be situated in Ciudad Darío, Matagalpa, in the nation’s northern region."

 

[lpetrich]

Italy curbs installation of solar panels on agricultural land | Reuters

Italy's rightwing coalition on Monday passed rules curbing the installation of solar panels on agricultural land, ministers said, in a move that triggered criticism as it could undermine Rome's decarbonisation goals.

The new rules, part of a broader package of measures to protect farming and fisheries, included a ban on the installation of photovoltaic systems with modules placed on the ground in areas classified as agricultural.

"We put an end to the wild installation of ground-mounted photovoltaic (panels)," Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida told a news conference after the cabinet meeting that approved the measures.

...
Lollobrigida said the scheme does not target agri-voltaic projects, which place solar panels over fields and vineyards to get double use out of the land by producing power during periods of heavy sunlight, while still allowing crops to grow.

Good that they made that exception.

A Major Technology for Long-Duration Energy Storage Is Approaching Its Moment of Truth - Inside Climate News - "Hydrostor Inc., a leader in compressed air energy storage, aims to break ground on its first large plant by the end of this year."

Batteries smash more records as they shift solar to evening peak in one of world's biggest grids | RenewEconomy - in California

The stunning new dynamics of the California grid have been emerging rapidly this northern spring, where renewable energy records are also tumbling, reaching a new peak of 158 per cent of demand on Saturday, and providing enough power to meet all local demand for up to nine hours a day, or more.

The excess supply of solar in the middle of the day, and negative wholesale prices, has prompted big batteries to soak up as much as they can in the middle of the day – sometimes accounting for up to 31 per cent of all load – and then injecting it back into the grid, where it accounts for up to 29 per cent of all supply.

 

[bilby]

Yeah, batteries are great, as long as California doesn't need electricity after 10pm, doesn't want much electricity between sunset an 10pm, doesn't care that wholesale prices are frequently negative, making low carbon sources to fill the nighttime (and other low-solar perriods, such as cloudy days) gaps less competitive than burning gas, and doesn't mind paying eyewateringly large amounts of money to achieve this.

Batteries remain polluting, dangerous, and massively environmentally damaging to manufacture.

If you want safe, clean, sustainable energy for our future, batteries are a dreadful idea on all three counts; More so in the light of the fact that we have had a genuiny safe, clean, and sustainable option for seventy years, and have been denigrating it and refusing to even consider it for fifty.

Humans are fucking stupid.

Paricularly when they cherry pock what they think are the good attributes of a system, and consistently ignore all the myriad major problems with it, as an article of faith.

 

[lpetrich]

It's not just remarkable progress.
The astonishing growth of renewable energy - "Renewable energy is taking over the world!"

Extrapolating current trends and estimating 100% renewable by 2048.

Nuclear energy? Non-hydro renewable energy passed it in 2017.

Despite the ritualistic pronouncements from the nuclear industry about an imminent upsurge in nuclear power through a new ‘renaissance’ (which has been supposed to be happening for the last 20 years) renewables are triumphing.

...
As strong as they are, fossil fuel and nuclear interests cannot stop the renewables takeover. Sure, they can slow it down to an extent by misinformation about renewable energy and technologies like EVs and heat pumps, but green energy will win in the end. That is because there is an unbeatable combination of grassroots energy activists campaigning for renewable energy and also because renewable energy and renewable-friendly technologies are developing so fast!

Like electricity storage and synfuels.

Virginia scientists 3D print wind turbine with recyclable polymer - Interesting Engineering - "The 3D printed wind turbine can help save time and energy spent on transportation of components since it can be printed on-site."

As part of the Department of Energy’s initiative to make renewable energy production more sustainable, the researchers at the Design, Research, and Education for Additive Manufacturing Systems (DREAMS) laboratory developed a new approach to 3D printing and computational design for making turbine blades using high-strength thermoplastic material.

The new approach allows the printing of objects that are larger than the printer itself. More importantly, the printing can be carried out closer to installation sites, reducing the time and energy spent transporting components from large production facilities.

The raw material will still have to be brought on site, but it should fit into typical truck trailers.

 Thermoplastic - a plastic that softens when it is heated enough. That makes it possible to mold it to a new shape and thus reuse it.

 Thermosetting polymer - a plastic that does not soften when heated.

 

[bilby]

Extrapolating current trends and estimating 100% renewable by 2048.

That's frankly ridiculous and absurd. If it could be done, the world couldn't afford it.

Intermittent power generation suffers extreme diminishing returns - the more you have, the more difficult and expensive it gets to increase it further.

Getting to 30% is hard; Getting higher than that is near impossible.

Assuming linear (or even near linear) growth in intermittent generation, towards 24x7 availability, is insane.

 

[bilby]

Nuclear energy? Non-hydro renewable energy passed it in 2017.

So what?

The question of how to get carbon free energy worldwide is a technical question, not a popularity competition.

I don't need you to tell me we aren't doing, or even trying to do, the one thing we must do in order to achieve that goal - I am painfully aware of that.

 

[lpetrich]

Yeah, batteries are great, as long as California doesn't need electricity after 10pm, doesn't want much electricity between sunset an 10pm, doesn't care that wholesale prices are frequently negative, making low carbon sources to fill the nighttime (and other low-solar perriods, such as cloudy days) gaps less competitive than burning gas, and doesn't mind paying eyewateringly large amounts of money to achieve this.

Improved batteries will likely make that kvetching totally out of date, batteries like sodium-ion ones and flow ones. Also such technologies as compressed air.

Batteries remain polluting, dangerous, and massively environmentally damaging to manufacture.

???

 

[lpetrich]

Nuclear energy? Non-hydro renewable energy passed it in 2017.

So what?

It shows how little the nuclear industry has been doing to rise up to the challenge.

 

[lpetrich]

Want less mining? Switch to clean energy. | MIT Technology Review

In the new analysis, Wang and his colleagues considered the total mining footprint of different energy technologies, including the amount of material needed for these energy sources and the total amount of rock that needs to be moved to extract that material.

Many minerals appear in small concentrations in source rock, so the process of extracting them has a large footprint relative to the amount of final product. A mining operation would need to move about seven kilograms of rock to get one kilogram of aluminum, for instance. For copper, the ratio is much higher, at over 500 to one. Taking these ratios into account allows for a more direct comparison of the total mining required for different energy sources.

Updated Mining Footprints and Raw Material Needs for Clean Energy | The Breakthrough Institute

Their numbers, of metric tons of total material mined for each gigawatt-hour of electricity:

• Nuclear energy: 10 to 14
• Solar photovoltaic farm: 45
• Onshore wind farm: 59
• Offshore wind farm: 35
• LFP batteries: 40
• Natural gas: 120
• Coal: 1,180

LFP = lithium-iron-phosphate, a kind of lithium-ion battery chemistry

Nuclear energy is the clear winner, but wind and solar and batteries are better than natgas, and much better than coal.

 

[lpetrich]

Biden Administration Unveils New Five-Year Offshore Wind Leasing Schedule

The DOI’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) anticipates future offshore wind energy lease sales in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Pacific, and the waters offshore of the U.S. territories over the next five years.

Collapse of wind farm projects spoils New York's climate goals. Here’s why. - POLITICO - "The three offshore wind projects would have provided 6.6 percent of the electricity New York needs in 2030."

For months, it’s been clear GE Vernova, a spinoff of GE, couldn’t deliver the crucial parts all three wind farms were forced to use. And, late last week, New York officials announced all three projects are dead in the water.

Solar balconies are booming in Germany. Here’s what you need to know about the popular home tech | Euronews - solar panels hanging from the top edges of balconies. Installation is easier than for rooftop solar panels.

Biden unveils $7 billion for rooftop solar in Earth Day message | Reuters

President Joe Biden on Monday celebrated Earth Day by announcing $7 billion in grants for residential solar projects that will power nearly a million low-income households.

The announcement kicks off a week of activities aimed at touting his administration's record on climate change.

Biden revealed the funding in a speech at Prince William Forest Park in Triangle, Virginia, where he also announced that applications are open to join the American Climate Corps, a program to prepare young people for jobs in climate-related industries.

Thus making a lot of people more self-reliant.

 

[lpetrich]

France plans 240MW solar capacity for highways - Power Technology - "Legislation approved by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2022 requires all large car parks to be covered in solar panels, with the deadline for implementation now fast approaching."

French authorities have announced plans to launch tenders to supply 240MW of solar power capacity along the country’s highways.

The Regional Highways Division (DIR) will open the first calls for expressions of interest from April to May 2024 and has identified 140 car parking areas and 100 highway interchanges as potential suitable areas for solar deployments.

Solar canopies?

Noting
Important appels à manifestation d’intérêt à venir pour la solarisation du foncier autoroutier national – pv magazine France - Important upcoming calls for expressions of interest for the solarization of national highway land

Status Quo - One Year Since Germany’s Nuclear Exit: Renewable Capacity Expands, Electricity from Fossil Fuels Significantly Reduced - Fraunhofer ISE

 

[lpetrich]

Romania's biggest battery system comes online within wind-solar hybrid power plant - "Located in Constanța county in Romania, the facility has 6 MW in operating power and a capacity of four hours, It translates to 24 MWh, making it the biggest battery energy storage system or BESS in the country."

Not very much, but comparable to what they are building:

Monsson’s new BESS will store excess electricity from wind turbines and solar panels, to be used at times when domestic demand is stronger. The unit will be charged with energy from the existing 50 MW Mireasa wind farm at the same location, the developer reiterated. It said it is building the 35 MW Gălbiori 2 PV farm at the site. The unit is scheduled to be connected to the grid before the end of the year and added to the equation.

The existing Gălbiori solar power plant has just above 1 MW in connection capacity.

Construction to Soon Begin on Biggest US Offshore Wind Farm | Offshore Wind - Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) - 2.6 gigawatts

Gov. Lamont pushes for more solar panels on schools - "Around 300 schools in Connecticut have solar panels. Gov. Lamont wants to quadruple that number."

More and more. Great.