The Remarkable Progress of Renewable Energy

[bilby]

https://www.bizjournals.com/houston...o-has-big-plans-for.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

...
Pattern Energy Group Inc.’s (Nasdaq: PEGI) development executives all touched down in Houston this week to finalize planning for the next step in an $8 billion, 3.5-gigawatt expansion of the company’s New Mexico wind energy footprint.
...
Pattern is preparing to start construction in 2020 on the Western Spirit transmission line — that’s what the team came to Houston to discuss. The project is meant to open the door for further investment in New Mexico wind farms, said Johnny Casana, senior manager on Pattern’s U.S. political and regulatory affairs team. Once Western Spirit is done, Pattern has an agreement in place to sell it to New Mexican utility company PNM for about $300 million, but the real prize is the more than $1 billion in wind farm projects the transmission line will enable.
....

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40252

Texas alone has 24.2 gigawatts capacity in 2019.

Nice. I bet that gets them almost 6GW of actual power. It's a shame that they have fuck all control over when or how much they get. Do Texans only want electricity when it's windy? Or do Texans just like having an excuse to burn lots of gas?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/25/us/texas-wind-energy-trnd/index.html

...
(CNN)Wind power has surpassed coal for the first time in Texas, according to a new report. The numbers cap an enormous rise in wind power in the nation's top energy-producing state over the past decades.
Wind has generated 22% of the state's electrical needs this year. It just edged out coal, which provided 21% of the Lone Star State's power, according to the Electrical Reliability Council of Texas, which manages electrical flow on about 90% of the Texan grid.

Sixteen years ago, in 2003, wind made up just 0.8% of the state's power, and coal satisfied 40% of electrical needs, the council documents show.
...

Never let those who say it cannot be done interrupt those who are doing it.

 

[lpetrich]

On controlled nuclear fusion, I'll believe it when I see it.

A banner year for advancing non-battery storage – pv magazine International - "This has been a breakthrough year for non-battery storage, with key advances in pumped hydro, power-to-gas, and thermal storage technologies. Many industry players are moving beyond pilot projects to contracted projects, which could lead to increased scale and lower costs."

Power-to-gas (hydrogen) I find the most interesting one of these, because that's a synfuel one. Mentioning plans for 20 MW, 30 MW, and 10 MW systems, with a 100 MW one and even a GW one in early planning stages.

One can make ammonia with the hydrogen, or else capture CO2 from the air and make hydrocarbons or oxygenated ones like methanol (Fischer-Tropsch).

About thermal storage, the best-known sort is of heat, like molten-salt storage. But there are some schemes for storing "cold":

England-based Highview Power began operating a pilot-scale 5 MW cryogenic energy storage facility near Manchester in June 2018. The technology uses electricity to chill and liquefy air at -320˚F, store the liquid air in insulated, low-pressure tanks, and later expose the liquid air to ambient temperatures to rapidly re-gasify the air, expanding it to 700 times its liquid volume in order to provide power to turbines.

A simple form of such a system is running refrigerators to make ice, then letting the ice do A/C.

Also a system for heating volcanic rocks, then powering steam turbines with their heat.

The slow, inexorable rise of green hydrogen – pv magazine International - "The International Renewable Energy Association says the integration of hydrogen into the energy transition will not happen overnight and electrolysis costs will not be halved until the 2040s. That hydrogen and related products could revolutionize the world energy landscape, however, is not in doubt."

Rather pessimistic, it seems to me, given the rapid development of renewable-energy-related technologies that we have seen so far.

 

[lpetrich]

Hydrogen powered mining trucks are coming – pv magazine International - "The building-sized trucks run on diesel and prompt logistical complications as large amounts of diesel must be shipped to remote mining sites. Attempts to decarbonize the mining sector will have to consider the heavy-duty vehicles."

Giant dump trucks.

Global mining companies are increasingly turning to renewables to power operations with landmark projects in Australia including Juwi’s Sandfire DeGrussa mine making headlines. Given mines have a limited life span, are in remote, off-grid locations and have vast areas of land nearby, solar and wind power is an obvious choice.

Now French power company Engie and mining giant Anglo American have announced a partnership to develop the world’s first hydrogen powered mining haul truck.

Green hydrogen airs at G20 meeting of energy ministers this week – pv magazine International - "Hello hydrogen! A number of factors are floating renewably powered hydrogen to the top of the agenda for worldwide energy ministers. Australia is among the countries most favourably placed to turn hydrogen hype into the biggest source of decarbonized energy the world has yet seen."

This weekend, in the mountain resort of Karuizawa in Japan’s Nagano prefecture, G20 energy ministers will be presented with an International Energy Agency (IEA) study on the state of play of clean hydrogen, along with recommendations for immediate practical steps to accelerate the development of hydrogen as the world’s most significant clean energy delivery and storage mechanism. Proponents say hydrogen is capable of decarbonizing major global industrial sectors from electricity supply to transportation, agriculture and steel making.

After noting demand for renewable-energy-powered fuels,

And, “in parallel with that pull,” said Daniel Roberts, leader of the CSIRO hydrogen energy systems future science platform, the cost of “key technology components – in particular fuel cells and electrolyzers – and renewable energy are coming down to a point that is beginning to see them approach or even get to parity with some of the systems they’re seeking to replace”.

Seems like it's going the way of wind turbines and photovoltaic cells and lithium-ion batteries. It's so remarkable to see.

 

[steve_bank]

Hydrogen just moves the location of the carbon footprint.

Hydrogen takes energy to create.

In the news America;s biggest coal company has filed for bankruptcy. Coal production has dropped to the lowest level since Carter. Mines are closing.

 

[Sarpedon]

Yes hydrogen moves the carbon footprint elsewhere, but if it can be more efficient, it is still a net gain. From the sound of it, the hydrogen trucks can have their hydrogen producer nearby, reducing need to spend fuel to ship fuel. Even if the hydrogen eloctrolysis were conducted using power from a coal plant, there may be savings by transmitting that power via powerlines instead of shipping tanker trucks from a distant port.

Despite the fact I just posted about fusion, I believe that we need to find multiple ways to improve efficiencies, instead of one magic bullet.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Hydrogen just moves the location of the carbon footprint.

Hydrogen takes energy to create.

In the news America;s biggest coal company has filed for bankruptcy. Coal production has dropped to the lowest level since Carter. Mines are closing.

Unless it's moved to nuclear or renewables.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/wo...d-orders-51573132569?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

...
Vestas Wind Systems’s stock surged on Thursday as the world’s biggest wind turbine manufacturer reported record orders and a 30% sales jump.
The Danish company said its order backlog was now worth a record high of €32.8 billion and signalled a “very busy 2020.” The stock climbed 10.8% in morning trading.
The back story. The wind energy industry has suffered at the hands of U.S. trade tariffs this year. Vestas, whose biggest market for deliveries has consistently been the U.S., reported its lowest quarterly profit in five years in May, citing lower margins caused by increased duties.
The wind turbine maker said in September it would cut 590 jobs from its German and Danish factories as it looks to control costs.
...

General Electric raised its outlook last month and made moves to gain ground on its European rivals by announcing an agreement with Dogger Bank Wind Farms, which is developing the world’s largest offshore wind farm.
What’s new. The Danish wind turbine manufacturer reported order intake of 4.7 gigawatts in the third quarter, a 45% increase on the previous year and far outstripping the market consensus.
...

-----

Wind marches on.

 

[lpetrich]

Hydrogen just moves the location of the carbon footprint.

With renewable energy, that will be zero.

Hydrogen takes energy to create.

One has to put in energy to be able to get energy back. It's only a problem if it is inefficient.

In the news America;s biggest coal company has filed for bankruptcy. Coal production has dropped to the lowest level since Carter. Mines are closing.

Indeed.

The largest private coal company in the United states just went bankrupt – pv magazine USA - "Despite promises by Trump to save the coal industry, the crisis in the coal sector is clear. Solar, wind and batteries have a world to gain"

It's mainly natural gas that's been replacing coal, but natgas will end up losing to renewables.

Switching to Renewables May Spur Trillions In Societal Benefits

The costs of installing renewable energy are far outweighed by the health benefits they would unlock, according to a new study. Those benefits could add up to upwards of $2.2 trillion.

Published in the journal Environmental Research Letters on Tuesday, the study looks at how transitioning away from fossil fuels—which spew nasty junk such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxides, and particulate matter in addition to carbon pollution—would benefit the economy by reducing the health burdens communities face due to this dirty energy. The authors analyzed the current use of coal, oil, and gas by region while examining what type of renewable would produce the best benefits there.

That "trillion" may be a typo for "billion". From Climate and health benefits of increasing renewable energy deployment in the United States - IOPscience

The numbers:

• $42K / MW wind in CA
• $730K / MW in the Upper Midwest (assuming billions, not trillions)

 

[lpetrich]

Wind and Solar Power Have Become Amazingly Affordable - Bloomberg - "Costs are falling so fast, it can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than to run old coal plants."

The economics of renewable energy have been improving fast — especially those of onshore wind and utility-scale solar power. A new analysis of the levelized cost of energy from Lazard, the company I work for, shows that over the past year the cost of generating energy from wind projects fell by 4% and large solar projects by 7%.

The levelized cost of any particular energy technology is the break-even price that companies investing in that technology need in order to see a competitive rate of return. In the case of both utility-scale solar and onshore wind power, this rate has dropped to about $40 per megawatt hour — which is lower than the cost of building new power plants that burn natural gas or coal. It’s even close to being competitive with the marginal costs of running the coal and nuclear plants we already have.

How remarkable to see - it's like the progress with new technologies.

Wind and solar kill coal and nuclear on costs, says latest Lazard report | RenewEconomy

The cost of solar, Lazard notes, has fallen 89 per cent over the past decade, and is still falling at an average rate of 13 per cent a year. The more mature wind technology has fallen 70 per cent over the same period of time, and is still falling at around 7 per cent.

The two technologies also beat gas on various measures. Solar is far cheaper than peaking gas, and wind beats out the more conventional combined cycle gas. Australia, it notes, has amongst the world’s cheapest wind and solar costs of the markets it has analysed.

I'm very happy to see that happen. It means that we do not have to choose between economics and sustainability/livability.

If renewable-energy improvements continue, as they are likely to, then this likely means that nuclear energy will not have much of a future.

 

[lpetrich]

Berkeley scientists develop better batteries for storing renewable energy | Engadget

Researchers at Berkeley are helping with this problem through the development of an affordable battery membrane, which is the part of the battery that separates the cathode and the anode. Traditional fuel cells use a fluorinated membrane, but these membranes are expensive and aren't designed for a flow battery. The researchers have created a new type of membrane specifically for flow batteries made from polymers called AquaPIMs, or aqueous-compatible polymers of intrinsic microporosity.

AquaPIM membranes work with different battery chemistries, from metals and inorganics to organics and polymers, and they help create stable cells which last for longer with degrading. They are also considerably cheaper than the fluorinated polymer membranes which can make up to 15 to 20 percent of the cost of a battery.

Good to see alternatives to Li-ion batteries, alternatives that can easily scale upward.

Virtual power plants solve renewable energy's biggest problem - CNN

Virtual power plants attempt to solve that problem by connecting disparate sources of renewable production, generation and storage. By pooling those resources, engineers can make them behave like a conventional power plant.

For example, a virtual power plant might be connected to 10 geographically dispersed wind farms to smooth the variability in output of each one. It could also include an energy storage component, so that if production from the wind farms outstrips demand a fleet of batteries can be charged so they can supply more power later when required. Other features that encourage consumers to optimize their energy use can also be incorporated.

In other words, connect several generators and storage systems on a grid. Something that is not exactly new, though intermittent supply does create a challenge for grid managers.

An energy breakthrough could store solar power for decades

The innovations include an energy-trapping molecule, a storage system that promises to outperform traditional batteries, at least when it comes to heating, and an energy-storing laminate coating that can be applied to windows and textiles. The breakthroughs, from a team led by researcher Kasper Moth-Poulsen, have garnered praise within the scientific community. Now comes the real test: whether Moth-Poulsen can get investors to back his technology and take it to market.

Let's see if that can work.

 

[lpetrich]

Renewables are at a tipping point – the OECD generated more electricity from green energy than coal last year | World Economic Forum - "5 charts that show renewable energy's latest milestone" - "For the first time, electricity derived from renewable sources has outstripped that generated by burning coal."

Coal was at 3 PWh (petawatt-hours) in 1990, peaked at 4 PWh in 2005, and is now at 3 PWh again. Natural gas was at 0.8 PWh in 1990, and is now at 3 PWh. Oil was at 0.8 PWh in 1990, and is now at 0.2 PWh. Nuclear is nearly constant at 2 PWh. Renewables were at 1.5 PWh until around 2005, where they started rising to 3 PWh.

The renewable mix is about 1/2 hydroelectric, 1/4 wind energy, and 1/4 all the rest. Of the remaining ones, 1/3 is solar photovoltaic cells, 1/3 is "solid biomass" (mainly wood), and the remaining 1/3 is a mixture of biogases, geothermal, municipal waste, and others.

Looking across the world, coal is a mixed bag. Its use is declining in the US and Europe, but increasing in India, China, and Southeast Asia.


Solar and wind energy preserve groundwater for drought, agriculture

A new Princeton University-led study in Nature Communications is among the first to show that solar and wind energy not only enhance drought resilience, but also aid in groundwater sustainability.

Using drought-prone California as a case study, the researchers show that increased solar and wind energy can reduce the reliance on hydropower, especially during drought. Consequently, this could help divert more surface water from hydropower to irrigation, thereby reducing overall groundwater abstraction.

Hydroelectric generation is vulnerable to drought, because it uses water, and because drought is a shortage of water.

From Solar and wind energy enhances drought resilience and groundwater sustainability | Nature Communications

Replacing coal with gas or renewables saves billions of gallons of water

"While most attention has been focused on the climate and air quality benefits of switching from coal, this new study shows that the transition to natural gas—and even more so, to renewable energy sources—has resulted in saving billions of gallons of water," said Avner Vengosh, professor of geochemistry and water quality at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment.

These savings in both water consumption and water withdrawal have come despite the intensification of water use associated with fracking and shale gas production, the new study shows.

Wind and solar don't need water directly, and PV cells can shield watery areas from sunlight, making less evaporation. This means less contention for water resources, a potential problem in semiarid and arid areas.

 

[bilby]

Wind and Solar Power Have Become Amazingly Affordable - Bloomberg - "Costs are falling so fast, it can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than to run old coal plants."

The economics of renewable energy have been improving fast — especially those of onshore wind and utility-scale solar power. A new analysis of the levelized cost of energy from Lazard, the company I work for, shows that over the past year the cost of generating energy from wind projects fell by 4% and large solar projects by 7%.

The levelized cost of any particular energy technology is the break-even price that companies investing in that technology need in order to see a competitive rate of return. In the case of both utility-scale solar and onshore wind power, this rate has dropped to about $40 per megawatt hour — which is lower than the cost of building new power plants that burn natural gas or coal. It’s even close to being competitive with the marginal costs of running the coal and nuclear plants we already have.

How remarkable to see - it's like the progress with new technologies.

Wind and solar kill coal and nuclear on costs, says latest Lazard report | RenewEconomy

The cost of solar, Lazard notes, has fallen 89 per cent over the past decade, and is still falling at an average rate of 13 per cent a year. The more mature wind technology has fallen 70 per cent over the same period of time, and is still falling at around 7 per cent.

The two technologies also beat gas on various measures. Solar is far cheaper than peaking gas, and wind beats out the more conventional combined cycle gas. Australia, it notes, has amongst the world’s cheapest wind and solar costs of the markets it has analysed.

I'm very happy to see that happen. It means that we do not have to choose between economics and sustainability/livability.

If renewable-energy improvements continue, as they are likely to, then this likely means that nuclear energy will not have much of a future.

LCOE doesn't include the cost of intermittency, and so gives a very misleading value for wind and solar power. If you include the systemwide costs implied by large scale intermittent power generation - the cost of storage, and/or of backup power from gas plants - then wind and solar look very expensive indeed. You can get away with ignoring those costs as long as your intermittent power is only a small fraction of the total (the coats are still there, but can be met by other existing infrastructure, so they just show up as higher retail prices); But if you continue to ignore those costs above about 20-25% intermittent generating, the result is blackouts.

It's easy to have very low costs when yoir technology doesn't have to actually solve the problem it's intended to address - how to provide the reliable 24x7 electricity that is essential to a modern developed nation.

It's also easy to get people to enthuse about low costs when you don't tell the whole story. Even if the cost of wind and solar generation was zero, you would still need something for those calm, windless nights. And that something is not free of charge. Excluding its costs from your assessment is simply lying.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Wind and Solar Power Have Become Amazingly Affordable - Bloomberg - "Costs are falling so fast, it can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than to run old coal plants."

The economics of renewable energy have been improving fast — especially those of onshore wind and utility-scale solar power. A new analysis of the levelized cost of energy from Lazard, the company I work for, shows that over the past year the cost of generating energy from wind projects fell by 4% and large solar projects by 7%.

The levelized cost of any particular energy technology is the break-even price that companies investing in that technology need in order to see a competitive rate of return. In the case of both utility-scale solar and onshore wind power, this rate has dropped to about $40 per megawatt hour — which is lower than the cost of building new power plants that burn natural gas or coal. It’s even close to being competitive with the marginal costs of running the coal and nuclear plants we already have.

How remarkable to see - it's like the progress with new technologies.

Wind and solar kill coal and nuclear on costs, says latest Lazard report | RenewEconomy

The cost of solar, Lazard notes, has fallen 89 per cent over the past decade, and is still falling at an average rate of 13 per cent a year. The more mature wind technology has fallen 70 per cent over the same period of time, and is still falling at around 7 per cent.

The two technologies also beat gas on various measures. Solar is far cheaper than peaking gas, and wind beats out the more conventional combined cycle gas. Australia, it notes, has amongst the world’s cheapest wind and solar costs of the markets it has analysed.

I'm very happy to see that happen. It means that we do not have to choose between economics and sustainability/livability.

If renewable-energy improvements continue, as they are likely to, then this likely means that nuclear energy will not have much of a future.

I can't check the article right now but I think it's missing the elephant--reliability. If you have enough wind/solar to produce ten times the power we need you still can't keep the lights on. Renewables cut fuel consumption of fast-throttle power sources, that's it.

 

[steve_bank]

Reliability is not an issue for solar electricity. Back in the 90s the idea of ;micro invetrs' came about. Small ivetrs designed to be operated in parallel and capable of hot swapping.

Chips have been out since the 90s to make micro inverts simple to design. Software replaces what was once complicated discrete component designs with high parts counts.

Solar panels are operated in series parallel so individual strings can be disconnected for repair and replacement.

I read a paper on a southwest utility that built a station from commenting off the shelf inverses operated in parallel. There is really not much to it. You wire them up and away it goes. Switch gear and safety equipment for connecting to the grid are all catalog items.

Inverts that can connect to the grid meet standards for operation. You can buy industrial grade units deigned for environmental extremes.

We would say it is a mature technology.

 

[bilby]

Reliability is not an issue for solar electricity. Back in the 90s the idea of ;micro invetrs' came about. Small ivetrs designed to be operated in parallel and capable of hot swapping.

Chips have been out since the 90s to make micro inverts simple to design. Software replaces what was once complicated discrete component designs with high parts counts.

Solar panels are operated in series parallel so individual strings can be disconnected for repair and replacement.

I read a paper on a southwest utility that built a station from commenting off the shelf inverses operated in parallel. There is really not much to it. You wire them up and away it goes. Switch gear and safety equipment for connecting to the grid are all catalog items.

Inverts that can connect to the grid meet standards for operation. You can buy industrial grade units deigned for environmental extremes.

We would say it is a mature technology.

Wow - you're saying that micro inverters can actually keep solar panels producing electricity at night? That would be hugely impressive, if true.

Sadly, it's not. Solar power is unreliable because the sun doesn't always shine on them. Even at midday, clouds can cause massive, unpredictable, unmanageable and sudden fluctuations in output. Some kind of storage, or a rapid-response non-solar backup power system, is the only way to mitigate this inherent unreliability. To consider the cost of solar power without including the cost of that storage and/or backup is dishonest. But very common.

 

[lpetrich]

LCOE doesn't include the cost of intermittency, and so gives a very misleading value for wind and solar power. ...

It's the reverse of a problem that most nuclear reactors have - most of them are run on constant throttle, making them an equally poor fit to demand.

Solar gold rush - The Ellsworth American - has a nice picture of solar panels on the roof of a school in Ellsworth ME.

Switching to renewable energy is actually cost-effective | Popular Science - another article about that "social benefits" paper - health benefits from lack of air pollution.

A third of California methane traced to a few super-emitters

The team identified more than 550 individual point sources emitting plumes of highly concentrated methane. Ten percent of these sources, considered super-emitters, contributed the majority of the emissions detected. The team estimates that statewide, super-emitters are responsible for about a third of California's total methane budget.

Emissions data like this can help facility operators identify and correct problems—and in turn, bring California closer to its emissions goals. For example, of the 270 surveyed landfills, only 30 were observed to emit large plumes of methane. However, those 30 were responsible for 40% of the total point-source emissions detected during the survey. This type of data could help these facilities to identify possible leaks or malfunctions in their gas-capture systems.

Wind Power Project to be Launched in Herat: DABS | TOLOnews - in Afghanistan

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Reliability is not an issue for solar electricity. Back in the 90s the idea of ;micro invetrs' came about. Small ivetrs designed to be operated in parallel and capable of hot swapping.

Reliability is a matter of the sun shining.

 

[bilby]

LCOE doesn't include the cost of intermittency, and so gives a very misleading value for wind and solar power. ...

It's the reverse of a problem that most nuclear reactors have - most of them are run on constant throttle, making them an equally poor fit to demand.

That's utter nonsense. There's no reason not to run nuclear plants at full throttle when they make up a moderate proportion of total generating capacity, because they are excellent at doing that. But load following isn't a problem for nuclear plants. In France, the only nation with sufficient nuclear generating capacity to render it necessary, nuclear plants load follow just fine.

France also has the lowest carbon emissions from electricity generation of any developed nation. And the only other developed nations to come close to France are places with electricity generation mostly from nuclear, hydro, or both.

 

[lpetrich]

Offshore Wind Energy Could Generate Enough Electricity to Power Globe – Rolling Stone

Offshore Wind Energy Could Generate Enough Electricity to Power the World. Will the U.S. Get on Board?

The International Energy Agency predicted offshore wind will be a $1 trillion industry by 2040

Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a boom in renewable energy, forecasting the power capacity for renewable sources will increase 50 percent over the next five years. One of the most fertile settings for an explosion in renewable power, the IEA revealed in a study released days later, is off the world’s coastlines — specifically less than 37 miles off coastlines where the water is less than 60 meters deep. Wind farms constructed in these regions could potentially generate 36,000 terawatt hours of renewable electricity a year, the study found, well above the current global demand of 23,000 terawatt hours.

That should be enough to power a lot of synfuels manufacture as well as the more usual sorts of electricity use.

Offshore wind to become a $1 trillion industry

Renewable capacity set for 50% growth over next few years, IEA says

• Increase will be driven by drops in cost and what the IEA describes as “concerted government policy efforts.”
• Renewables’ share in worldwide power generation is seen growing from 26% now to 30% in 2024.

...
“Renewables are already the world’s second largest source of electricity, but their deployment still needs to accelerate if we are to achieve long-term climate, air quality and energy access goals,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director, said in a statement issued Monday.

Not a big change: 4% over 5 years. It ought to be much more, but the economics of renewable energy is now good enough to make a big push justifiable on that ground. Future generations might conclude that we got wind turbines and photovoltaic cells economically competitive in the nick of time.