The Remarkable Progress of Renewable Energy

[lpetrich]

Power shutoffs cause a battery boom in California – pv magazine USA

In response to the shutdowns and the energy uncertainty they bring for the foreseeable future, Californians are taking measures into their own hands. Citizens across the state are turning to battery storage in order to provide backup power in case of a blackout, with the California Solar and Storage Association (CALSSA) sharing with pv magazine USA that “phones are ringing off the hook for contractors up and down the state.”

Those who have already installed systems on their roofs are looking to add battery backup, while those who had never even considered solar before are calling to get quotes on the solar + storage systems that they hope will get them through these uncertain times.

...
If there is one thing to celebrate amongst the chaos, it’s that PG&E may have unknowingly prompted the first regional grid mass-exodus in the United States. Will every customer affected install batteries? No. Will even a majority of battery customers go entirely off-grid? Most likely, no. However if a utility can’t safely provide the basic function of a utility, customers are going to look for alternative sources to get the power they need, meaning the dream of a decentralized grid could well be fostered out of necessity in California.

Batteries can be useful in another way when one is on the grid. One can charge up during low-price times and use the batteries during high-price times.

 

[lpetrich]

US wind energy capacity now over 100 gigawatts, says new report

On a state level, Texas leads the way with more than 27 GW of cumulative capacity, according to the AWEA’s report. Capacity refers to the maximum amount that installations can produce, not what they are currently generating.

China is Bankrolling Green Energy Projects Around the World | Time
A solar farm in Argentina. A geothermal project in Kenya. A wind farm off of Scotland.

Not only is China today the world’s largest producer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles, but it has also been the top investor in clean energy for nine out of the last ten years, according to the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

China is the biggest emitter of CO2, but it's good that it's doing as much as it has.

Beijing’s refocus from fossil fuels to renewable energy is a net positive for a myriad of reasons: protecting scarce resources, cutting carbon emissions that spur global warming, and boosting energy security by reducing reliance on costly fuel imports. While only a hatful of nations boast significant oil and gas reserves, nearly all have the potential to develop clean energy themselves, whether via solar, wind, tidal, geothermal or hydroelectric plants, mitigating geopolitical tensions by making the world less dependent on restive regions like the Middle East.

However,

The vast majority of the more than $244 billion that China has spent on energy projects worldwide since 2000 have been on fossil fuels, according to data from the Global Development Policy Center, a policy-oriented research body affiliated with Boston University. Despite Xi telling journalists at April’s second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing that he embraces “open, clean and green development,” China has financed more than 300 foreign coal plants from Egypt to the Philippines.

So is China doing greenwashing? It'll be a long way to go before China undoes the damage from its fossil-fuel investments.

 

[lpetrich]

Wildfires and blackouts? Californians need solar panels and microgrids. - Vox

Since it first started growing in earnest in the early 20th century, the grid has worked according to the same basic model. Power is generated at large power plants and fed into high-voltage transmission lines, which can carry it over long distances. At various points along the way, power is dumped from the transmission system into local distribution areas (LDAs) via substations, where transformers lower the voltage. Local distribution grids then carry the electricity to customers.

Distributed energy is different from the conventional model in that its origin lies within an LDA. That’s where it is generated, stored, and managed; no transmission lines are involved.

...
Some distributed energy is located in front of the meter, within the distribution grid itself. Think, for instance, of a community solar park or a small local wind farm. We will return to front-of-the-meter distributed energy later.

But for now, when most people talk about distributed energy, they are referring to the kind located behind the meter, like solar panels on roofs and batteries in garages.

Installing one's own solar panels and batteries can make possible "grid defection", leaving the electrical-power grid entirely. Total grid defection is expensive and complicated, but partial grid defection is much more feasible, and it will likely become very common.

Then, microgrids.

Technically, a single building, even a single room could be a microgrid, but more often, when people refer to microgrids they are talking about groups of buildings and facilities — a campus, a neighborhood, or even a whole community.

...
With the right equipment and software, a microgrid can coordinate DERs within the group, maximizing local resources while ensuring that enough power is drawn from the larger grid to keep supply and demand matched. (It is possible to have microgrids nested within larger microgrids; a microgrid could even be entirely composed of smaller microgrids, like Russian nesting dolls.)

While there are freestanding microgrids in developing countries, microgrids are typically embedded in larger distribution grids in the US.

Solar panels are a natural for microgrids, since they scale down very easily.

 

[fromderinside]

Solar panels are a natural for microgrids, since they scale down very easily.

It's been mentioned many times on this thread that solar panels tend to require replacement, which is expensive, often.

So unless solar roofs last as long as traditional roofs there's going to be resistance to their use as replacements. I don't see any likelihood of a roof lasting 5-10 years replacing a roof lasting 25-50 years.

 

[lpetrich]

It's been mentioned many times on this thread that solar panels tend to require replacement, which is expensive, often.

How often???

 

[Sarpedon]

thats new to me. I have heard that solar panels tend to lose efficiency over time, but not needing replacement on that scale. The number appears to be 1% per year.

If a solar panel pays for itself in 12 years or so, it should still be operating at a high degree of efficiency. Hell, if they don't get damaged, why wouldn't you just leave them for 40 or more years? Sure, they wouldn't be as efficient as new, but they've already paid for themselves, and the extra generation is free money.

 

[steve_bank]

Getting off grid is easy.

There are lighting and appliances designed to work off a DC buss. You gain in efficiency by not using an inverted and go with DC off the panels. Washers and driers use DC brushless motors.

If you want to run video games, multiple computers, and TV all night that is another matter. There are tradeoffs. You may have to plan consumption.

People do it.

As to reliability in Loren's context the question is rising demand for energy as population grows. Especial with groing electric cars.

From a news segment with a developer of wind farms his best estimate is renewable can cover about 80-85% of current demand in the USA. Not including demand growth.

Without fossil fuels the alternatives are nuclear power or reducing demand, or scheduling consumption. In some areas devices are installed in homes to allow utilities to adjust air conditioning and heating set points based on local demand.

In the 60s before modern switching power supplies there were brown outs in summer afternoons in the NYC area. You could watch TV screen video shrink as CRT high voltage dropped.

There is a basic disconnect. increasing demand and supply of energy consuming devices and conviences and a demand for non fossil based energy.

If you are running multiple computers at home, video games, various wireless devices that need charging, large video and audio systems then you are part of the problem.

 

[bilby]

Domestic power use is an also ran. Sure, you can take your home off grid. But the aluminium in those solar panels, and in your patio door frames, your soda cans, your car, your cookware; and the copper, iron, plastics, wood, bricks, tiles, etc., etc., that are an integral part of your home, contents, and vehicles, all come from industrial plants which use lots of electricity.

Go solar at home, and you still have a huge carbon footprint from the industrial (and commercial) activities that support your lifestyle.

Unless you live in a country like France or Sweden, whose 24x7 grid electricity is generated by low carbon sources - such as nuclear power.

Nobody's planning to take their smelter offline just because it's a night with low winds. Industrial electricity users have to choose fossil or nuclear.

They can't just tolerate the inconvenience and expense of intermittent renewable electricity. Going off grid is only an option for wealthy citizens of developed nations, who can rely on the existing infrastructure, and their deep pockets, to bridge the gaps; or for poor citizens of undeveloped nations, who have such shitty infrastructure that almost anything is an improvement.

 

[fromderinside]

thats new to me. I have heard that solar panels tend to lose efficiency over time, but not needing replacement on that scale. The number appears to be 1% per year.

If a solar panel pays for itself in 12 years or so, it should still be operating at a high degree of efficiency. Hell, if they don't get damaged, why wouldn't you just leave them for 40 or more years? Sure, they wouldn't be as efficient as new, but they've already paid for themselves, and the extra generation is free money.

Some points. They do get damaged by winds and debris carried by them. Second Depending on where one installs there are changes in efficiency, differences in periodic maintenance, and differences in panel life. I read that panels range in efficiency from 7% amorphous to 41% concentrated si, that life varies from less than 10 years up to about 40 years and that you get what you pay for. So taking a low bid approach one can't expect much. If one has the money it's probably a good investment.

 

[steve_bank]

All nuclear and fossil plnts require periodic maintenance and have equipment failures. Steam turbines do not run forever. All plants have recurring costs.

 

[bilby]

All nuclear and fossil plnts require periodic maintenance and have equipment failures. Steam turbines do not run forever. All plants have recurring costs.

Nuclear plants routinely achieve 90% capacity factor (actual power generation divided by nameplate/peak power generation) over their 60-80 year life.

Wind turbines are lucky to achieve 30%; Solar power plants expect less than 20%, even in ideal conditions. And they have lifespans in the order of 20 years at best.

And nuclear (or fossil) plants are down mostly at planned intervals, that are scheduled not to coincide with the downtime at other plants nearby, or to coincide with periods of peak demand (for example nuclear plants can shutdown for fuelling in spring or autumn, when demand is low, to ensure that they will be available in winter or summer periods of high demand).

Wind and solar plants all go down together - a large high pressure system can cause light winds over thousands of square miles, and nightfall affects more than half the planet at once. And they go down unpredictability, with no reference to demand. A cold, calm winters evening, with clear skies and a hard frost, is typically a time of high power demand. And a time of zero renewables availability.

To dismiss these vital and hugely significant differences in reliability and longevity with "all generation technologies have downtime" or "all plants have recurring costs", is to stretch the truth beyond breaking point.

 

[steve_bank]

In the news electric vehicles and wind turbines are growing faster that expected. However the demand for fossil fuels i also ricing. .

 

[Loren Pechtel]

In the news electric vehicles and wind turbines are growing faster that expected. However the demand for fossil fuels i also ricing. .

The demand for fossil fuels is undergoing useless "improvements"??

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/world-only-100-billion-utility-110101589.html

...
(Bloomberg) -- Two decades ago, when coal ruled U.S. power generation, a Florida utility plowed some of its extra cash into a wind farm atop a desolate Oregon plateau.
It was the start of an unimaginably successful bet.
This year, that company -- now named NextEra Energy Inc. -- became the world’s first utility with a market capitalization of more than $100 billion, thanks largely to its clean-power business. It’s almost twice as valuable as the oil major ConocoPhillips and has developed enough wind and solar farms across the U.S. and Canada to power the entire nation of Greece. Shares have doubled in four years, outperforming virtually every other stock in the industry.
“They made a bunch of strategic moves early and aggressively that have paid off very well for them,” said Andrew Weisel, an analyst at Scotia Howard Weil.
...
NextEra, which changed its name in 2009 to reflect its growing focus on alternative energy, now has wind and solar farms in about two dozen U.S. states and four Canadian provinces. They total roughly 18 gigawatts, enough to power almost 13 million homes. Last year, its clean power business -- in addition to some natural gas and nuclear plants -- raked in $4.7 billion in profit, 70% of its net income.
And the company isn’t done growing. It already has contracts to add another 12 gigawatts of renewables.
...



-----

Clean energy can be a very profitable business. Meanwhile, coal companies are going bankrupt.

 

[lpetrich]

If solar and wind are so cheap, why are their haters making so much noise – pv magazine USA

The price of electricity is still going up a small bit, but recently it has been because of power grid upgrades in spite of the wholesale price of electricity going down. One nuclear proponent asked, “If solar and wind are so cheap, why are they making electricity so expensive?” – the answer is: they are cheap, and they aren’t making it more expensive – in fact, the data suggests the more wind and solar there is the lower pricing gets. With recent record low prices from US based solar+storage, and solar alone globally – expect these decreases to continue.

Secretive energy startup backed by Bill Gates achieves solar breakthrough - CNN

A secretive startup backed by Bill Gates has achieved a solar breakthrough aimed at saving the planet.

Heliogen, a clean energy company that emerged from stealth mode on Tuesday, said it has discovered a way to use artificial intelligence and a field of mirrors to reflect so much sunlight that it generates extreme heat above 1,000 degrees Celsius.

Concentrated solar power is not a new technology, but this system's claim to fame is its high amount of concentration. The article was not very clear about how it was done, but it can be done by making the heliostats curved for improved focusing. Heliostats are the mirrors that reflect the incoming sunlight into the concentration spot.

Superconducting wind turbine chalks up first test success

The EcoSwing consortium designed, developed, and manufactured a full-size superconducting generator for a 3.6 megawatt wind turbine, and field-tested it in Thyborøn, Denmark.

...
"Permanent-magnet (PM) based direct-drive (DD) generators offer a solution in state-of-the-art multi-megawatt generators, but the feasibility of 10+ megawatt PM-DD turbines requires significant weight reduction. Pseudo-magnetic direct-drive (PDD) machines, integrating magnetic gearing and generator functions are a possible solution to this, but they can be expensive and highly complex to produce."

To tackle this challenge, the team employed rare-earth barium copper oxide (ReBCO) high-temperature superconducting generators. These require a smaller amount of rare-earth materials than PM machines, resulting in a lower cost. Superconductors can also carry high current densities, which results in more power-dense coils and a lower weight.

Could be a good alternative, and it's nice to see that someone has succeeded in putting high-Tc superconductors to work.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

People object to renewables because everyone else is being forced to subsidize them.

 

[lpetrich]

Cheap at last
Cheap at last
Thank all those who worked on it
It's cheap at last!

Inspired by Quote by Martin Luther King Jr.: “Free at last, Free at last, Thank God almighty we are free at last.”

Cheap at Last, Batteries Are Making a Solar Dream Come True | WIRED

Todd Karin was prepared when California’s largest utility shut off power to millions of people to avoid the risk of wildfires last month. He’s got rooftop solar panels connected to a single Tesla Powerwall in his rural home near Fairfield, California. “We had backup power the whole time,” Karin says. “We ran the fridge and watched movies.”

Try doing that with nuclear energy.

 

[lpetrich]

Air-rail alliances: Why airlines want you to go by train for some trips | CNN Travel

Dutch airline KLM recently announced plans to partner with European train companies Thalys and NS to replace one of its five daily flights between Amsterdam and Brussels with a high-speed rail service.

Elsewhere in Europe, Austrian Airlines is offering "AIRail," another terrestrial service in partnership -- or codeshare, in aviation parlance -- with that country's national rail operator ÖOB. In Germany, Lufthansa has a collaboration with train network, Deutsche Bahn.

This is a way of avoiding short-distance flights and freeing up space for long-distance ones. It is also nice that many of the trains are powered by electricity, what's easiest to make with renewable energy. Synfuels are possible, and they are being worked on, but they are still not there in mindshare and cost.


Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035, Study Says - Bloomberg

By 2035, it will be more expensive to run 90% of gas plants being proposed in the U.S. than it will be to build new wind and solar farms equipped with storage systems, according to the report Monday from the Rocky Mountain Institute. It will happen so quickly that gas plants now on the drawing boards will become uneconomical before their owners finish paying for them, the study said.

Rocky Mountain Institute

About RMI

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RMI engages businesses, communities, institutions, and entrepreneurs to accelerate the adoption of market-based solutions that cost-effectively shift from fossil fuels to efficiency and renewables.

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[Angra Mainyu]

Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035, Study Says - Bloomberg

How can solar/wind crush gas, when you need gas for the night/when the wind isn't blowing?

And if you don't need gas for then, what would you use instead?

 

[steve_bank]

Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035, Study Says - Bloomberg

How can solar/wind crush gas, when you need gas for the night/when the wind isn't blowing?

And if you don't need gas for then, what would you use instead?

The progressives are saying all we have to is just put up a bunvh of windmills and solar cells and all will be well. No detailed quantified plan as to what is feasible and how to make it work.

In the news electric car demand is growing globally faster than expected.

All that energy has to come from somewhere.0
In the 59s-60s in the NYC area I member summer brown outs. As people went home and turned on air conditions line voltages dropped and TV pictures would shrink. Lights would dim.

People do not want nuclear even if it the best solution environmentally. Coal is dropping and natural gas is ricing. Market forces will likely select natural gas.