The Remarkable Progress of Renewable Energy

[lpetrich]

China added almost 4 GW of solar in first quarter despite Covid-19 – pv magazine International - building and installing of solar panels is relatively low-risk, so with everybody wearing good masks, it should be safe to do that.

Sunny places could see average solar prices of $0.01 or $0.02 per kilowatt-hour within 15 years – pv magazine USA - "New research models that the price of solar will continue to drop faster than previous predictions. This would mean that building new solar would be routinely cheaper than operating already-built fossil fuel plants, even in today’s world of ultra-cheap natural gas."

Australian Researchers Announce Perovskite Solar Cells That Stand Up To Heat & Humidity

Regular readers of CleanTechnica may remember a recent story about researchers at Iowa State University who have made perovskite cells that can stand up to heat and humidity, a breakthrough that could make them more suitable for commercial applications. Now comes news of a similar breakthrough from researchers at the University of Sydney and the University of New South Wales. A team of 14 scientists led by Professor Anita Ho-Baillie says encapsulating perovskite cells in a cocoon of glass and polyisobutylene, a synthetic rubber used to make double glazed windows, allows them to survive high heat and humidity much longer than ever before possible.

Yet more evidence that photovoltaic cells are acting like some new technology.

OPEC Producer Algeria Aims To Build $3.6B Solar Power Projects | OilPrice.com

OPEC member Algeria plans to install up to US$3.6 billion worth of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects to produce renewable electricity for export and for meeting increasing domestic power demand.

The solar power facilities are expected to have a combined installed capacity of 4,000 megawatts (MW), the office of Prime Minister Abdelaziz Djerad said in a statement.

Another oil-producing Arab nation getting into solar energy. Great.

 

[lpetrich]

New South Wales to transition to 100% green hydrogen electricity - Energy Live News

The Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) could soon transition from fossil-based electricity to 100% green hydrogen.

That’s the suggestion from green hydrogen specialist, Infinite Blue Energy (IBE), which has launched its ‘Project NEO’ to convert solar and wind energy into green hydrogen – any additional energy will be stored and converted to electricity, using its fuel cell technology.

Great to see all this buzz about hydrogen. It'll help push electrolytic and fuel cells along the economy-of-scale curve. Something that has happened with many technologies before that, and something that is happening right now with wind and solar energy. If nothing else, I'm glad to have hopped onto this train.

France to double number of wind turbines - by 2028

Borehole thermal energy storage for solar – pv magazine International

Drammen Eiendom KF – a company owned by the municipality of Drammen, Norway – has developed a project to store solar energy as heat. The system can store energy provided by 150 m2 of solar thermal collectors and 1,000 m2 of PV panels in 100 boreholes in granitic gneiss rock, each with a depth of approximately 50 meters.

“GeoTermos is expected to return around 350,000 kWh/year in the form of heat at various temperature levels during the heating season,” said Randi Kalskin Ramstad, a shallow geothermal energy and hydrogeology specialist at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) and engineering services provider Asplan Viak.

The electricity provided by the PV installation produces heat by using air as a heat source for the CO2 heat pump. The heat is then stored in the boreholes during the spring, summer and fall. In the winter, it is used for low-temperature heating in a number of nearby school buildings.

Ingenious.

 

[lpetrich]

New zinc-air battery is 'cheaper, safer and far longer-lasting than lithium-ion' | Recharge

A new type of battery is coming onto the market that can store multiple days’ worth of energy, that doesn’t degrade, can’t possibly explode and is up to five times cheaper than lithium-ion, claimed its developer as it prepares to pilot the technology in New York state.

The zinc-air hybrid flow battery developed by Canadian company Zinc8 has the potential to disrupt the entire energy-storage market — making wind and solar farms baseload and even replacing the need for transmission grid upgrades in many places.

It's a flow battery, meaning that one can increase capacity by increasing the volume of the system's storage tanks.

Vanadium flow battery giant to go 'head-to-head' with Li-ion kings | Recharge - another chemistry of flow batteries.

Croatia introduces provisions to tender 1 GW of solar – pv magazine International

“This regulation is definitively an important step towards fulfilment goals listed in the Croatian Energy Strategy adopted in 2019,” Croatian PV expert Petar Curic told pv magazine. “This capacity would cover about 10 % of Croatian total consumption and energy would be provided when needed most – during peaks of the touristic season … but the realization of more than gigawatt PV plants will mostly depend on substantial improvements of grid capacity which is, unfortunately, overloaded.”

 

[lpetrich]

Investors bet $27.5 million that Nanotech Energy’s graphene battery breakthrough is the real thing – pv magazine USA - for a battery's electrodes. Graphene is a single sheet of carbon atoms arranged in a hexagonal pattern, like a honeycomb.

Hydrogen from garbage? - Solid Waste & Recycling - Solid Waste & Recycling

Developed by NASA scientist Dr. Salvador Camacho and SGH2 CEO Dr. Robert T. Do, a biophysicist and physician, SGH2’s proprietary technology gasifies any kind of waste – from plastic to paper and from tires to textiles – to make hydrogen. The technology has been vetted and validated, technically and financially, by leading global institutions including the US Export-Import Bank, Barclays and Deutsche Bank, and Shell New Energies’ gasification experts.

“The world needs some good news right now, and we have it. Affordable, mass-produced, reliable green hydrogen is the missing link needed to decarbonize the world,” said Dr. Do. “We provide that link. We are the only company in the world delivering green hydrogen that is cost competitive with the cheapest, dirtiest hydrogen made from coal and gas, and much less expensive than other green hydrogen. Our technology can scale quickly and produce fuel 24/7, year-round.”

...
Unlike any other technology, SGH2’s SPEG process provides a solution to the growing global plastics crisis. SGH2’s unique gasification technology uses a very high temperature (3500° to 4000° C) plasma- enhanced thermal catalytic conversion process optimized with oxygen-enriched gas, which results in the complete molecular dissociation of all hydrocarbons and the production of a very high quality, hydrogen-rich bio-syngas free of tar, soot and heavy metals. No other hydrogen-production technology can eliminate plastic as cleanly and as efficiently, if plastics are used or mixed in the feedstocks.

That will make recycling a LOT easier, since one doesn't have to do much sorting out. It looks like it will work with *anything* with an organic-chemistry composition, because what it does is disintegrate such materials. It can use food waste and dirty paper and cardboard, and dirty plastic, and it gets around the plastics-sorting problem. So it can use mixed-plastic bottles with paper labels glued on.

 

[lpetrich]

GAF Energy, part of the world’s largest roofer: The time is now for building integrated PV and solar roofs – pv magazine USA -- building PV panels directly into roofs. I like this creativity and innovation.

Green Hydrogen Pipeline Surges on a Wave of Announced Mega-Projects | Greentech Media - "Demand for electrolyzers that will produce hydrogen from renewables is growing rapidly, Wood Mackenzie says."

The pipeline of electrolyzer projects destined to produce hydrogen from renewable energy has nearly tripled in just five months, according to Wood Mackenzie. The analyst firm has updated the green hydrogen figures it released in a report last October, following an avalanche of new project announcements.

In its first report, titled Green Hydrogen Production: Landscape, Projects and Costs, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables counted 3.2 gigawatts of planned electrolyzer capacity, a twelvefold increase over the cumulative installed capacity at the time. As of March 2020, that pipeline had increased to 8.2 gigawatts, or 31 times the cumulative installed capacity today.

So pleasantly surprised that it's growing that fast. "Green hydrogen" is an important raw material for making renewable-energy alternatives to petrochemicals. I've seen a big list of all the things that are made from petroleum products -- and renewable-energy alternatives like Fischer-Tropsch products can make petroleum unnecessary for *all* of them.

 

[lpetrich]

Solar arrays on wave energy generators, along with wind turbines – pv magazine International noting that "The wave and tidal energy market is littered with bankruptcies" - it's hard to get wave-energy generators to work reliably and not corrode.

First Floating Ocean Hybrid Platform Can Generate Power From Waves, Wind And Solar - another article on it.

Siemens Gamesa can technically produce 20 MW turbines and 300-meter rotors - "Although the blades of Siemens Gamesa's new 14 MW turbine with their 108 meters will be the world's longest, the manufacturer insists on building them whole, contrary to the rest of the industry. This benefits the bottom line, the company asserts."

Australia plans to export solar power to Singapore via undersea cable

Survey work will soon begin on an ambitious plan to export power from a giant solar farm in Australia to Singapore via a 3,800 kilometre undersea cable.

The Sun Cable project, which is backed by Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes and Fortescue Metals’ founder Andrew Forrest, has awarded a contract to Perth-based Guardian Geomatics to conduct a route survey for the high voltage direct current cable. Cannon-Brookes has championed the “lighthouse” project as a demonstration of how Australia can harness its natural advantages in clean energy and wean off its reliance on coal and gas export revenues.

Singapore is a city-state on the southern end of the mainland part of Malaysia. So it doesn't have much room for solar panels.

But that cable will be a long one - 2,200 mi / 3,600 km.

The Sun Cable company says that this project could supply 1/5 of Singapore's electricity -- Sun City is also considering connecting to Indonesia. The proposed will pass close to some of Indonesia's islands, and also close to Indonesian cities like its capital, Jakarta.

Could this be the beginning of a OSEC - Organization of Solar-Energy Exporting Countries?

 

[lpetrich]

Israel Is Betting Big On Solar Power | OilPrice.com

Israel, which hopes to become energy-independent with its huge natural gas fields, is aiming to significantly boost its solar power generation over the next decade under a new US$22.8 billion (80 billion Israeli shekel) plan, the country’s energy ministry said, as carried by Reuters.

The huge Leviathan natural gas field - discovered in 2010 - together with other fields discovered offshore Israel in the past decade such as Tamar, Karish, and Tanin, is expected to help Israel become energy independent.

Aiming at 30% of electricity by 2030, and phasing out coal by 2026.

OPEC member Algeria said last month that it plans to install up to US$3.6 billion worth of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects to produce renewable electricity for export and for meeting increasing domestic power demand.

The solar power facilities are expected to have a combined installed capacity of 4,000 megawatts (MW), the office of Prime Minister Abdelaziz Djerad said.

Most of its electricity is from natural gas.

Another article: With $22 billion plan, Israel ups 2030 renewable energy target from 17% to 30% | The Times of Israel

Steinitz, who is beginning his second stint as energy minister, asserted that “the environmental significance is the replacement of coal and pollutants with solar energy and natural gas, which will lead to a 93 percent reduction in air pollution, and a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per capita.”

...
The plan would see more than 80% of Israel’s electricity generated by solar energy at peak hours.

 

[lpetrich]

Renewable energy growth stalled by coronavirus - CNN Video - "Social distancing is impacting the residential solar roof top business and the clean energy sector has lost jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The delays will slow the transition to cleaner energy."

Installing solar panels is one of the safer things to do -- it's outdoor and it's low population density and wearing a mask won't be much trouble.

Renewable energy toppled coal in 2019. That hasn't happened since before 1885 - CNN

New York (CNN Business)The last time the United States consumed more renewable energy than coal was in the 19th century, when hydropower was just getting started and wood burning was a major fuel source.

Now, it's happening again, as the nation consumed more energy last year from renewable sources like solar and wind than from coal. This is the first time that has happened since before 1885.

Even though Trump wants to keep the coal industry going.

Nila Madhab PANDA on Twitter: "Clean energy is the way ahead , and India is leading from the front, thank you @narendramodi ji this will go a long way in transforming India into a better nation
PM Modi makes case for each state to have at least one ‘solar city’ https://t.co/AJv8ELzMk1" / Twitter
noting
PM Modi makes case for each state to have at least one ‘solar city’

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday called for each state to have at least one ‘solar city’ whose electricity needs would be met entirely through rooftop solar power.

...
“He (PM) also emphasized on an innovative model for rooftop solar and desired that each state should have at least one city (either a capital city or any renowned tourist destination)" that will be a “fully solar city through rooftop solar power generation", the statement said.

The move could add heft to India’s image as a global clean energy champion, as the review also focused on creating an ecosystem in India for manufacturing of ingots, wafers, cells and modules.

So India can make its own PV cells and not depend on China.

 

[bilby]

Results are all that matters.

The objective is low CO₂ emissions. All the feel-good stories in the world add up to nothing, in the face of a reality that includes higher emissions than are necessary to run a modern developed nation.

 

[lpetrich]

Germany rebuffs gasoline auto lobby with radical electric plan - Reuters

Germany has become the second major European economy to use a multi-billion-euro recovery plan to spur clean driving, with incentives for electric cars that should boost Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) and Tesla (TSLA.O), while polluting SUVs face higher taxes.

Berlin’s 130 billion euros ($147.41 billion) coronavirus stimulus plan follows French President Emmanuel Macron’s pledge to make France the top producer of clean vehicles in Europe.

Germany doubled electric car subsidies, lowered value added tax (VAT) to 16% from 19%, and rejected an auto industry request to incentivise vehicles with internal combustion engines in favour of a plan to increase charging infrastructure.

Europe Set To Unveil Its $500 Billion 'Green Deal' | OilPrice.com

The European Union is set to launch a down payment on a Green New Deal.

As the world slips into a deep economic recession – and some indicators are as bad as the Great Depression – trillions of dollars are flowing in the form of government stimulus. To date, much of that has been aimed at re-inflating the pre-pandemic economy, particularly in the United States. In fact, the Trump administration has been going further, dealing out benefits to oil and gas while slapping fees retroactively on renewable energy.

...
On May 27, the European Commission will unveil details on its “Green Deal” strategy, which will offer a green economic recovery package while at the same time put some meat on the bones of the EU’s aim to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Specifically, the plan will propose a “recovery instrument” worth a half-a-trillion euros, according to Bloomberg, which obtained a copy of the draft document. Of that, between 60 and 80 billion euros would be aimed at boosting EV sales and building out EV recharging networks. EVs would be exempted from the VAT. Another 91 billion euros would go to retrofitting existing buildings. 10 billion euros would go to renewable energy projects. Around 30 billion euros would be funneled into technologies to cut emissions in sectors where it has been exceptionally difficult to do so, such as steel and cement.

A European Green Deal | European Commission
 European Green Deal

 

[lpetrich]

Germany Aims To Become World’s Hydrogen Hotspot | OilPrice.com

Hydrogen is an essential part of the strategy to become carbon neutral by 2050. The characteristics of the Universe’s smallest and most abundant particle make it highly suitable to become an important part of future energy systems. H2 can be used in the transportation sector as an energy carrier in fuel cells as well as burned in combustion engines. Also, hydrogen produces the much needed high temperatures for the industry to phase out natural gas.

With a diagram of what hydrogen can be used for:

• Fuel:
  • Transport: synthetic liquid fuels for land, sea, and air vehicles
  • Power: electricity peaking plants
• Heat:
  • Industry: Steel, Cement, Paper, Food, Aluminum
  • Buildings: Residential, Commercial
• Feedstock:
  • Chemicals: Fertilizers, Fuel refining, Plastics
  • Products: Metallurgy, Food, Steel, Glass

Germany’s Economics Minister Peter Altmeier last year announced Berlin’s ambition to become a global leader in hydrogen related technologies. Europe’s largest economy is exceptionally well suited to reach its goal because it already produces 20 percent of the world’s electrolysers. Berlin’s long-term objectives promise significant economic benefits for its industry which is already regarded as one of the best in the world.

That's what I like to see. Looks like all the pieces are falling into place for a renewable-energy economy.

Hydrogen can substitute for natural gas in many of its applications, though it's harder to refrigerate than the major component of natgas - methane. One can send it through natgas pipelines, and one can burn it in peaker plants. Or else one can get fuel cells for peaker plants. So hydrogen can be good for energy storage.

 

[lpetrich]

MHPS Secures First Order for Hydrogen-Capable J-Series Gas Turbines

Combustion turbines that can use hydrogen as well as natgas. Combustion turbines = jet engines.

Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap (2020) – Ramez Naam

Has a diagram titled "Solar Costs Dropped by a Factor of 5 Since 2010." Shows how solar energy passed the high end of fossil fuels over 2012-2016, and how it is now well within the competitive range.

Solar energy outdid by sizable factors the forecasts made back in 2010 by the International Energy Agency (factor of 5) and by Ramez Naam himself (factor of 3).

Technology Prices Drop Through Learning

To do this, we can use Wright’s Law, or the “learning curve”. Wright’s Law states that, for most technologies, every doubling of cumulative scale of production will lead to a fixed percentage decline in cost of the technology. This happens through learning-by-doing, a mixture of innovation that improves the technology itself and innovation that reduces the amount of labor, time, energy, and raw materials needed to produce the technology.

It can be expressed as Wright's Law, discovered by Theodore Wright for airplane production in 1936. Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes | Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences

(Production cost) ~ (Cumulative production)^(-a)

for some value of a. RN showed a diagram of the price of a Ford Model T car as a function of cumulative production: the car's price goes down 16% for each doubling of production.

Moore's Law vs. Wright's Law -- Wright's law beats Moore's law for predicting the price over time of computer components.

For airplanes up to 1936, this was reduction in labor cost by 10-15% for each doubling of production. It works not only for airplanes and cars, but also for PV cells and Model T's.

 

[lpetrich]

Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress | Santa Fe Institute
Mentions Wright's law, and also Moore's law: (performance) ~ (time)^(a)

Wright's law did best, but Moore's law was not far behind. "We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially." Something that makes Moore's law look like Wright's law. "Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year."

Also at PLoS One: Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress - I read its supporting data, and I found what the authors worked from:

• Chemical: AcrylicFiber, Acrylonitrile, Aluminum, Ammonia, Aniline, Benzene, BisphenolA, Caprolactam, CarbonDisulfide, Cyclohexane, Ethanolamine, EthylAlcohol, Ethylene, Ethylene2, EthyleneGlycol, Formaldehyde, HydrofluoricAcid, LowDensityPolyethylene, Magnesium, MaleicAnhydride, Methanol, NeopreneRubber, Paraxylene, Pentaerythritol, Phenol, PhthalicAnhydride, PolyesterFiber, PolyethyleneHD, PolyethyleneLD, Polystyrene, Polyvinylchloride, PrimaryAluminum, PrimaryMagnesium, Sodium, SodiumChlorate, Styrene, TitaniumSponge, Urea, VinylAcetate, VinylChloride
• Hardware: DRAM, HardDiskDrive, LaserDiode, Transistor
• Energy: CCGTElectricity, CrudeOil, ElectricPower, Ethanol, GeothermalElectricity, MotorGasoline, OffshoreGasPipeline, OnshoreGasPipeline, Photovoltaics, Photovoltaics2, WindElectricity, WindTurbine, WindTurbine2
• Other: Beer, ElectricRange, FreeStandingGasRange, MonochromeTelevision, RefinedCaneSugar

This study did not address the issue of production costs leveling off, or the cost ratio between the beginning and the ending of an exponential phase.

The exponents for production-rate increase and for price decrease all varied quite a bit, as did their Wright's-law ratio.

 

[lpetrich]

Wright's Law Edges Out Moore's Law in Predicting Technology Development - IEEE Spectrum discusses that 62-technologies paper.

Back to Ramez Naam. He then gets into testing Wright's law on PV-system production. He first shows a linear-linear plot, something that seems very dumb in this context. So he did it again in log-log form, and one can easily see lines in it.

The pricing of utility-scale solar farms has dropped 30%-40% with each doubling of cumulative production.

This is a stunning pace of decline. It’s far higher than the bulk of academic studies and industry projections, which typically fall into the 10-20% learning per doubling range. And it’s more than twice the 16% learning rate I found in my 2015 analysis.

There is no evidence that we have reached the limit in unit cost, so we can predict what will happen if current trends continue and we don't hit a limit any time soon. By 2030, solar energy should undersell the *operating* costs of existing fossil-fuel generating systems.

RN then asks why the IEA underestimated the growth of solar energy.

1. Academic Studies: Frequently Using Old Data
...

2. IEA and EIA Forecasts: Artificially Low Learning Rates

The IEA has seldom made clear about how they determine the future costs of energy technologies. However, in their 2019 World Energy Outlook, the IEA states that solar power has a learning rate of 20%. This is substantially lower than the learning rates we find from 2009-2020. It’s roughly half the learning rate that comes from the IEA’s own dataset of solar auction prices from 2012 on.

The US EIA (roughly the American equivalent of the IEA) has consistently been more explicit than the IEA. Each year they publish the assumptions that go into their Annual Energy Outlook. In 2010, the EIA believed that solar would have a learning rate of 15% for three doublings of scale, which would then decline to 8%. In 2015, EIA believed that solar’s learning rate was now 10%. In 2020, facing the the long history of price declines, EIA raised its assessment: Solar would drop 20% in price in the next doubling, and then the learning rate would drop to 10% forever more. Clearly, all of these numbers are well below the 30-40% learning rate observed over this decade.

Seems like the IEA and the EIA have been excessively cautious.

 

[lpetrich]

Will Sodium Batteries Replace Lithium-Ion? | OilPrice.com

While everyone else was worrying about cheap oil and the future of electric cars, sodium batteries just got closer to becoming mainstream. This challenger to lithium ion technology has been around for a while but it has also been plagued by some inherent problems. Now, another one of these has been solved by researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the Washington State University.

The problem with sodium batteries are their limited capacity.

...
Sodium batteries are inarguably cheaper than lithium ion. Sodium is found in abundance anywhere there is salt water. Meanwhile, the supply of lithium is limited to a few places in the world.

...
Now, according to the team led by WSU professor Yuehe Lin and senior PNNL research scientist Xiaolin Li, sodium batteries could have a capacity comparable to that of lithium ion batteries. What’s more, the durability of their battery was also much better than previous attempts, with 80 percent of capacity remaining after 1,000 charge-recharge cycles.

It remains to be seen whether their technology can be successfully commercialized.

Only One Oil Major Is Betting Big On Renewable Energy | OilPrice.com

Equinor, the Norwegian state-controlled energy giant, will drive renewable investment among majors, spending $6.5 billion in the next three years to build its capital-intensive offshore wind portfolio.

...
After Equinor, the runner-up is Portuguese operator GALP, directing just under a quarter of its greenfield expenditure to green initiatives.

...
With the notable exceptions of Equinor and GALP, the investments in renewables by the other oil giants will not even match the typical capex requirements of a single oil and gas field in their respective portfolios.

So they are making themselves vulnerable.

 

[Jokodo]

Results are all that matters.

The objective is low CO₂ emissions. All the feel-good stories in the world add up to nothing, in the face of a reality that includes higher emissions than are necessary to run a modern developed nation.

View attachment 28048

Austria (and even more so Norway, off screen) are pretty low carbon without *any* nuclear power plants.

 

[bilby]

Results are all that matters.

The objective is low CO₂ emissions. All the feel-good stories in the world add up to nothing, in the face of a reality that includes higher emissions than are necessary to run a modern developed nation.

View attachment 28048

Austria (and even more so Norway, off screen) are pretty low carbon without *any* nuclear power plants.

Sure.

But both have a lot of hydropower - which is only possible because of their topography and climate.

Nuclear power can be installed anywhere. Hydropower is the only other reliable low carbon electricity generation technology; But it can't.

ETA: And Austria isn't very green. Unlike France, Sweden, and Norway.

Wind and solar have utterly failed to significantly reduce overall emissions, even in countries like Germany and Denmark that have spent vast sums on promoting these technologies.

We have got to do better. And the first step is admitting that we have a problem. Wind and solar are very well regarded, very well funded, and very popular. But what they are not is very effective.

Carbon dioxide emissions reductions - measured across entire grids, and on long term timescales - are the only real measure of success in combating climate change. Any actions that don't achieve long term, grid-wide reductions are futile.

No matter how good they make people feel, or how effectively their green credentials can be spun.

 

[Bomb#20]

Germany Aims To Become World’s Hydrogen Hotspot | OilPrice.com
...

Germany’s Economics Minister Peter Altmeier last year announced Berlin’s ambition to become a global leader in hydrogen related technologies. ...

...
Hydrogen can substitute for natural gas in many of its applications, though it's harder to refrigerate than the major component of natgas - methane. One can send it through natgas pipelines, and one can burn it in peaker plants. Or else one can get fuel cells for peaker plants. So hydrogen can be good for energy storage.

Plus, it will give the Germans 13% more lifting power than helium in their Zeppelins.

 

[Jokodo]

Results are all that matters.

The objective is low CO₂ emissions. All the feel-good stories in the world add up to nothing, in the face of a reality that includes higher emissions than are necessary to run a modern developed nation.

View attachment 28048

Austria (and even more so Norway, off screen) are pretty low carbon without *any* nuclear power plants.

Sure.

But both have a lot of hydropower - which is only possible because of their topography and climate.

Nuclear power can be installed anywhere. Hydropower is the only other reliable low carbon electricity generation technology; But it can't.

ETA: And Austria isn't very green. Unlike France, Sweden, and Norway.

I did say that Austria is pretty green, not very green, and that Norway is "even more so". Off the top of my head without looking up current figures, we have about 2/3 hydro, most of the rest natural gas, and biomass and photovoltaic competing for third place. We're pretending that coal is no longer relevant but in fact we do import coal generated electricity during peak demand.

I don't think we actually disagree. I wanted to add, for the sake of completeness, that nuclear isn't, strictly speaking, the only way to achieve carbon independence - though it may well be the only currently feasible way for many countries. There are advantages and disadvantages to both hydro and nuclear - as you've mentioned, a big advantage of nuclear is that it is independent of climate and topography. Another advantage of nuclear is that it is probably overall safer - depending on how you count and what assumptions you make about the effects of low dosage radiation where the data isn't very clear, the  Vajont_Dam breach alone arguably caused more deaths than half a century of civilian usage of nuclear power. I have earned myself quite some negative rep on an Austrian forum arguing that the hydroelectric plants along the Drava river in Carinthia, Austria (upstream of Slovenia's second largest city Maribor, and in a geologically active region) represent a greater threat to Slovenia than Slovenia's Krsko nuclear plant represents to Austria (Austrians, across political camps, tend to be quite religious about their opposition to nuclear power, and quite presumptuous in demanding of our neighbours to close down their plants - especially "Eastern" (which includes Northern and Southern in strictly geographical terms) neighbours, there isn't half as much animosity against German and Swiss reactors as there is against Slovak, Slovene and Czech ones).

However, hydro, wherever it's feasible, and in countries that don't have uranium deposits of their own, does have the big advantage of granting independence of shifting alliances that might, on relatively short notice, dry up ones supply chains in times of crisis.

 

[bilby]

Sure.

But both have a lot of hydropower - which is only possible because of their topography and climate.

Nuclear power can be installed anywhere. Hydropower is the only other reliable low carbon electricity generation technology; But it can't.

ETA: And Austria isn't very green. Unlike France, Sweden, and Norway.

I did say that Austria is pretty green, not very green, and that Norway is "even more so". Off the top of my head without looking up current figures, we have about 2/3 hydro, most of the rest natural gas, and biomass and photovoltaic competing for third place. We're pretending that coal is no longer relevant but in fact we do import coal generated electricity during peak demand.

I don't think we actually disagree. I wanted to add, for the sake of completeness, that nuclear isn't, strictly speaking, the only way to achieve carbon independence - though it may well be the only currently feasible way for many countries. There are advantages and disadvantages to both hydro and nuclear - as you've mentioned, a big advantage of nuclear is that it is independent of climate and topography. Another advantage of nuclear is that it is probably overall safer - depending on how you count and what assumptions you make about the effects of low dosage radiation where the data isn't very clear, the  Vajont_Dam breach alone arguably caused more deaths than half a century of civilian usage of nuclear power. I have earned myself quite some negative rep on an Austrian forum arguing that the hydroelectric plants along the Drava river in Carinthia, Austria (upstream of Slovenia's second largest city Maribor, and in a geologically active region) represent a greater threat to Slovenia than Slovenia's Krsko nuclear plant represents to Austria (Austrians, across political camps, tend to be quite religious about their opposition to nuclear power, and quite presumptuous in demanding of our neighbours to close down their plants - especially "Eastern" (which includes Northern and Southern in strictly geographical terms) neighbours, there isn't half as much animosity against German and Swiss reactors as there is against Slovak, Slovene and Czech ones).

However, hydro, wherever it's feasible, and in countries that don't have uranium deposits of their own, does have the big advantage of granting independence of shifting alliances that might, on relatively short notice, dry up ones supply chains in times of crisis.

Nuclear power is FAR safer than hydropower, even if we assume massive impact on health from low radiation doses (which would be contrary to all the evidence). The Banqiao Dam disaster alone killed almost a quarter of a million people, and destroyed nearly seven million homes.

And given its energy density, there's little difficulty in establishing a stockpile of nuclear fuel. Indeed, most countries have the ability to mine their own thorium in extremis, so some of the newer reactor designs, once operational, could work entirely independently of any imported fuel.