The Remarkable Progress of Renewable Energy

[Hermit]

Origin Energy announced today that it will be closing Australia's largest power plant (which is also Australia's largest coal-fired power plant) in mid-2025 instead of 2032. The power plant has a nameplate capacity of 2880 megawatts and produces nearly 20 million tonnes of greenhouse pollution into the atmosphere every year.

From the Australian Financial Review:

Chief executive Frank Calabria said Origin’s proposed complete exit from coal-fired power generation “reflects the continuing, rapid transition of the NEM as we move to cleaner sources of energy”.

“Australia’s energy market today is very different to the one when Eraring was brought online in the early 1980s, and the reality is the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries,” Mr Calabria said.
[...]
The news on Eraring comes after the Australian Energy Market Operator has warned of the likely accelerated closure of baseload coal power plants, which are becoming increasingly uneconomic with the rise of cheap renewable power.

Origin’s rival AGL Energy last week also brought forward the dates for its two largest coal plants to close, although it still is assuming its Loy Yang A plant in Victoria will run until 2045.

The decision is clearly based on cold-nosed economic considerations. Despite massive fossil fuel subsidies, underpinned by our current Prime Minister's fervent and decades long support, coal-fired power plants keep losing commercial viability.

 

[bilby]

Origin Energy announced today that it will be closing Australia's largest power plant (which is also Australia's largest coal-fired power plant) in mid-2025 instead of 2032. The power plant has a nameplate capacity of 2880 megawatts and produces nearly 20 million tonnes of greenhouse pollution into the atmosphere every year.

From the Australian Financial Review:

Chief executive Frank Calabria said Origin’s proposed complete exit from coal-fired power generation “reflects the continuing, rapid transition of the NEM as we move to cleaner sources of energy”.

“Australia’s energy market today is very different to the one when Eraring was brought online in the early 1980s, and the reality is the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries,” Mr Calabria said.
[...]
The news on Eraring comes after the Australian Energy Market Operator has warned of the likely accelerated closure of baseload coal power plants, which are becoming increasingly uneconomic with the rise of cheap renewable power.

Origin’s rival AGL Energy last week also brought forward the dates for its two largest coal plants to close, although it still is assuming its Loy Yang A plant in Victoria will run until 2045.

The decision is clearly based on cold-nosed economic considerations. Despite massive fossil fuel subsidies, underpinned by our current Prime Minister's fervent and decades long support, coal-fired power plants keep losing commercial viability.

"...the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries,” Mr Calabria said.

But mostly including cheap gas from fracking, he very carefully, and extremely dishonestly, didn't say.

As I said, people love wind and solar and even batteries (despite their being three orders of magnitude too small to do any good; Hugely expensive; And rather dangerous and polluting).

Whenever anyone wants to greenwash their transition from coal to gas, from mining to fracking, and from cheap to expensive electricity, they trot out vague claims that the new system will "include" wind and solar.

It's hype. Marketing. A scam. A big lie, concealed in weasel words like "including".

The only important measure is carbon dioxide (and equivalent greenhouse gas) emissions from the entire system.

We need to dramatically lower that. But people don't even talk about it.

Taking away 20 million tonnes per year of carbon dioxide emissions is great - but nobody's owning up to the emissions they are replacing them with.

It's all hype and spin. It's great for giving the appearance of action. But it achieves very little - and nowhere near what could be achieved with a much smaller investment in nuclear power plants. Ask the French.

Everyone needs to be much more France, and much less Germany.

 

[lpetrich]

I like this subreddit of reddit.com: Renewable Energy: safe, clean, unlimited energy for our future

Accelerating research into low-emissions steelmaking

Using hydrogen instead of carbon for refining iron ore, thus, not emitting CO2.

Fe2O3 + (3/2)C -> 2Fe + (3/2)CO2
Fe2O3 + 3H2 -> 2Fe + 3H2O

In the misinformation wars, renewable energy is the latest to be attacked : NPR

Bill Gates, Chris Sacca invest $50 million in Antora Energy

Founded in 2018, Antora Energy takes zero emissions energy from renewable energy sources, like wind and solar farms, and converts that to heat, which it stores in solid carbon blocks that are insulated in a kind of thermal battery. From there, the stored energy is used as heat in industrial processes needed to make materials like cement and steel, or it’s converted into electricity.

There are lots of difficulties. Heated carbon in air will burn, so will they be using some relatively inert gas like nitrogen or argon?

Iberdrola to Invest USD 10 + Billion in Wind Projects Offshore Massachusetts | Offshore Wind
A Spanish energy company

Together, Iberdrola’s projects will meet 35 per cent of the state’s electricity demand with clean and competitive energy, while helping to create around 4,000 jobs during construction over the next few years, the company said.

Construction recently began on Vineyard Wind One, the country’s first large offshore wind farm. The 800 MW project, located about 15 miles south off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard, will generate enough wind power to meet the demand of more than 400,000 homes.

Almost twice as much as the Cape Wind project's nameplate capacity. That was a wind-energy project that was litigated to death some years back.

Avangrid was also awarded a contract for the Commonwealth Wind offshore wind farm in Massachusetts in December. The 1,232 MW project, New England’s largest offshore wind project to date, will involve a USD 4 billion investment and create 11,000 jobs.

As part of the project, Iberdrola is promoting the installation of a submarine cable factory in the state on the site of a former coal-fired power plant.

About 3 times as much as Cape Wind. Thus making 5 Cape Winds. -  Cape Wind

 

[lpetrich]

Catching Sunlight in a Bottle, a Big Step for Renewables - The Happy Neuron
noting
A photosensitizer–polyoxometalate dyad that enables the decoupling of light and dark reactions for delayed on-demand solar hydrogen production | Nature Chemistry

Decoupling the production of solar hydrogen from the diurnal cycle is a key challenge in solar energy conversion, the success of which could lead to sustainable energy schemes capable of delivering H2 independent of the time of day. Here, we report a fully integrated photochemical molecular dyad composed of a ruthenium-complex photosensitizer covalently linked to a Dawson polyoxometalate that acts as an electron-storage site and hydrogen-evolving catalyst. Visible-light irradiation of the system in solution leads to charge separation and electron storage on the polyoxometalate, effectively resulting in a liquid fuel. In contrast to related, earlier dyads, this system enables the harvesting, storage and delayed release of solar energy. On-demand hydrogen release is possible by adding a proton donor to the dyad solution. The system is a minimal molecular model for artificial photosynthesis and enables the spatial and temporal separation of light absorption, fuel storage and hydrogen release.

So one can make a solar panel that stores light energy, then makes hydrogen with it.

 

[lpetrich]

Australia passes 25GW of installed PV – pv magazine International - "Australia has hit a historic milestone – it has reached 25GW of installed solar capacity. As the Australian PV Institute noted on Monday, that’s more solar per capita than anywhere else in the world."

"By the end of 2021, there were more than 3.04 million PV installations in Australia, with a combined capacity of over 25.3GW, the Australian PV Institute noted."

Another story about that planned PV canal canopy in California:
California water district plans country's 1st solar canopy project covering canals

Germany to accelerate solar PV deployment on agricultural land - PV Tech
Remarkable how far along agrivoltaics has come. So the land-use objection to solar panels is not much of an objection.

 

[bigfield]

Origin Energy announced today that it will be closing Australia's largest power plant (which is also Australia's largest coal-fired power plant) in mid-2025 instead of 2032. The power plant has a nameplate capacity of 2880 megawatts and produces nearly 20 million tonnes of greenhouse pollution into the atmosphere every year.

From the Australian Financial Review:

Chief executive Frank Calabria said Origin’s proposed complete exit from coal-fired power generation “reflects the continuing, rapid transition of the NEM as we move to cleaner sources of energy”.

“Australia’s energy market today is very different to the one when Eraring was brought online in the early 1980s, and the reality is the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries,” Mr Calabria said.
[...]
The news on Eraring comes after the Australian Energy Market Operator has warned of the likely accelerated closure of baseload coal power plants, which are becoming increasingly uneconomic with the rise of cheap renewable power.

Origin’s rival AGL Energy last week also brought forward the dates for its two largest coal plants to close, although it still is assuming its Loy Yang A plant in Victoria will run until 2045.

The decision is clearly based on cold-nosed economic considerations. Despite massive fossil fuel subsidies, underpinned by our current Prime Minister's fervent and decades long support, coal-fired power plants keep losing commercial viability.

"...the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries,” Mr Calabria said.

But mostly including cheap gas from fracking, he very carefully, and extremely dishonestly, didn't say.

As I said, people love wind and solar and even batteries (despite their being three orders of magnitude too small to do any good; Hugely expensive; And rather dangerous and polluting).

Whenever anyone wants to greenwash their transition from coal to gas, from mining to fracking, and from cheap to expensive electricity, they trot out vague claims that the new system will "include" wind and solar.

It's hype. Marketing. A scam. A big lie, concealed in weasel words like "including".

The only important measure is carbon dioxide (and equivalent greenhouse gas) emissions from the entire system.

We need to dramatically lower that. But people don't even talk about it.

Taking away 20 million tonnes per year of carbon dioxide emissions is great - but nobody's owning up to the emissions they are replacing them with.

It's all hype and spin. It's great for giving the appearance of action. But it achieves very little - and nowhere near what could be achieved with a much smaller investment in nuclear power plants. Ask the French.

Everyone needs to be much more France, and much less Germany.

We've certainly locked ourselves into reliance on gas generation.

This is what the energy mix looks like for a week during summer in South Australia, Australia's trailblazer on renewable energy:



This is at the time of year when we get almost maximum sunlight. The purple imports are all coal and gas from Victoria. While we have moments where the supply is 100% renewable, this only happens when we get the ideal combination of daytime sun and high winds.

We can't possibly solve this problem with more solar and wind. We are stuck with gas until a replacement technology is invented that fills the same role as despatchable supply.

The big picture at the national level looks more promising. Coal is in decline and gas isn't growing:



Renewables includes hydroelectric, which is confined to a small number of generators where the geography actually makes it viable. Most of the growth in renewables is in solar and wind.

There are two problems here: Firstly, the rate is decline of fossil fuels is way too fucking slow. Secondly, the growth of renewables will inevitably slow down once we build enough solar to supply 100% of the energy every summer afternoon, and enough wind to supply 100% of energy every third day when it's actually windy.

Shit, my solar feed-in tariff was recently cut by almost 60% because daytime solar generation is so abundant. It's now about 10% of the feed-in tariff that was being paid ten years ago. That's not a lot of incentive for homeowners to keep buying panels.

 

[lpetrich]

Agriculture: the Agrivoltaic Approach - With Video

"The global installed capacity of agrivoltaics, or the co-development of the same area of land for both solar power and agriculture, has grown rapidly from about 5 megawatts (MW) in 2012 to approximately 2,900 MW in 2020."

"A recent Oregon State University (OSU) study estimates that converting just 1% of American farmland to agrivoltaics could meet the US national renewable energy targets, save water, and create a sustainable long-term food system."

Noting
Sustainable Farm Agrivoltaic | College of Agricultural Sciences

"Agriculture uses an enormous amount of resources. It takes A LOT of water and energy to grow all of our food! 85% of global water consumption is used for irrigation, and over one-third of all greenhouse gases are attributed to agriculture."

Noting
Sustainability | Free Full-Text | Agrivoltaics Align with Green New Deal Goals While Supporting Investment in the US’ Rural Economy

Agrivoltaic systems combine solar photovoltaic energy production with agriculture to improve land-use efficiency. We provide an upper-bound reduced-order cost estimate for widespread implementation of Agrivoltaic systems in the United States. We find that 20% of the US’ total electricity generation can be met with Agrivoltaic systems if less than 1% of the annual US budget is invested into rural infrastructure. Simultaneously, Agrivoltaic systems align well with existing Green New Deal goals. Widescale installation of Agrivoltaic systems can lead to a carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction equivalent to removing 71,000 cars from the road annually and the creation of over 100,000 jobs in rural communities. Agrivoltaics provide a rare chance for true synergy: more food, more energy, lower water demand, lower carbon emissions, and more prosperous rural communities.

 

[lpetrich]

Senate committee considers poison pill wind energy bills

A series of bills professing to protect rural residents from industrial wind claim to bring transparency, limit abuse and enact safety measures to protect against the supposed health hazards of turbines.

In reality, they would transform Kansas, one of the top producers of wind energy for two decades, into one of the most restrictive states in the nation, pro-wind experts say.

Seems like opponents of wind energy want to regulate it to death, like what opponents of abortion have done in some states.

Kansas Senate committee unable to advance anti-wind bills, chairman says - Kansas Reflector

One of a half-dozen bills opponents say are meant to end renewable energy in Kansas won’t make it out of committee, the senator leading the charge said Wednesday.

As he prepared to adjourn the Senate Utilities Committee, Sen. Mike Thompson, a Johnson County Republican, seemed to say there weren’t enough senators on the 11-member committee to advance the bill for consideration by the Senate.

Good that they didn't make it out of committee.


Latest Polish renewables auction shows momentum of unsubsidized solar – pv magazine International

The rising number of unsubsidized large scale solar power plants in Poland has recently shown the increasing attractiveness of the Polish PPA market and the potential of the Eastern European country to see its energy prices and reliance on coal significantly reduced by resorting to photovoltaics.

Not just in Poland, I'm sure. It's welcome that solar panels are increasingly not needing subsidizing.

 

[lpetrich]

Solar Carports Project | WMATA
That's the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, in the District of Columbia, in charge of the Washington Metrorail system and oodles of buses.

After extensive planning, Metro completed a competitive selection process for the solar carports project. In 2020, Metro negotiated a 25-year contract with SunPower Corporation and Goldman Sachs Renewable Power LLC (GSRP) to install solar carports at four Metro sites.

When the solar carports are operational, the 14.6 acres of solar panels will collectively generate around 10 megawatts of electrical capacity, or enough to power at least 1,250* single-family homes annually, making this project one of the largest community solar projects in the Mid-Atlantic and in the nation.

Solar carports? A carport is a parking place with a canopy over it, and a solar one is with a solar canopy over it, a canopy with photovoltaic-cell panels on it.

Solar canopies are very sensible, and several companies now make them. They should not be confused with solar roadways, with the solar panels in the road itself, as opposed to covering it in a canopy. Solar roadways are an abysmally stupid idea, and I've enjoyed Thunderf00t's videos debunking them.

 

[lpetrich]

At bioenergy crossroads, should corn ethanol be left in the rearview mirror?

Transportation is responsible for a larger share of greenhouse gas emissions than any other sector of the U.S. economy, making biofuels a promising strategy to mitigate human-driven climate change. The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, created by 2007 legislation, mandates that such fuels partially replace petroleum-based ones. So far, however, the mandate has been nearly entirely fulfilled by corn ethanol, a fuel that may be worse for the climate than the gasoline it replaces.

Fifteen years on, research led by the University of Wisconsin–Madison assessed the environmental impacts of corn ethanol and the policy that governs it, using a combination of econometric analyses, land use data and biophysical modeling.

Noting
Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard | PNAS

Even without considering likely international land use effects, we find that the production of corn-based ethanol in the United States has failed to meet the policy’s own greenhouse gas emissions targets and negatively affected water quality, the area of land used for conservation, and other ecosystem processes.

So this fuel is a failure.

But US Presidential candidates profess their undying love for the fuel when they visit Iowa, the state with the first Presidential primaries.

 

[lpetrich]

Solar Energy Has an Aluminum Problem | by The Happy Neuron | Dialogue & Discourse | Jan, 2022 | Medium - "Solar is growing rapidly, but producers are running out of aluminum, a not so carbon-friendly material."

The world also needs to come to terms with the fact that aluminum production creates a lot of greenhouse gases, drastically undercutting the environmental benefits of it being used in renewable energy projects. The authors of the study from Nature Sustainability noted that in China, by far the largest aluminum producer, 14.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide are emitted per tonne of aluminum. This is largely due to the use of energy-intensive electrolysis, a process in which electricity is used to separate aluminum from ore. For the means of comparison, the steel industry’s impact is less than 2 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne. If the solar industry ramps up the way the authors predict, this would produce an alarming 4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, as well as other harmful emissions such as perfluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and hydrofluorocarbons.

But one can substitute renewable-energy electricity for coal-generated electricity, and the carbon-emission problem largely disappears.

 

[lpetrich]

South Korea’s Kepco to deploy 100MW of highway PV – pv magazine International - "Korea Electric Power Corp. plans to build solar on highways in two 20MW stages, followed by a third phase, under a government program to facilitate the development of energy-independent roads."
Mostly using unused land near roads.


The world’s largest lithium ion battery is down, again – pv magazine USA - "The Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase II set off fire alarms that activated a fault water suppression system, which – again – set off a cascading set of events that resulted in roughly ten battery packs melting down."
also
Second battery malfunction in less than 6 months reported at Moss Landing power plant

That's near Monterey, California.

I have to ask what fire-safety features that these Li-ion battery farms have. Like lots of firewalls in them. Cinderblocks seem like a good sort of material.

NSW flooded with $100bn in renewable and storage projects for Hunter renewable zone | RenewEconomy
New South Wales is in SE Australia.

 

[lpetrich]

Accelerated ammonia synthesis holds promise for conversion of renewable energy


LA could soon be home to the nation’s largest green hydrogen infrastructure system – pv magazine USA - "Southern California Gas Company is submitting an application to build a 10 to 20GW electrolyzer and 25 to 35GW of new and curtailed wind and solar, along with 2GW of energy storage, to deliver green hydrogen to the Los Angeles Basin."

Ammonia (NH3) has recently been recognized as an outstanding energy carrier molecule. In 1918, German chemist Fritz Haber won the Nobel Prize for synthesis of ammonia from its elements, paving the way for ammonia's significant role in industrial fertilizers. However, use of ammonia in renewable energy applications has been limited by the processes available to synthesize it. The Haber-Bosch process, used in industrial production of ammonia, requires high temperature and pressure, conditions not typically available in renewable energy storage and transport infrastructure.

N2 + 3H2 -> 2NH3

The NH3 synthesis process via chemical looping using lithium hydride (LiH) starts by combining LiH with N2 (molecular nitrogen) at ambient pressure and temperatures up to 500°C to yield a lithium imide product (LiNH2). The lithium imide then reacts with hydrogen gas (H2) to yield ammonia. The reaction time for ammonia synthesis from its constituent molecules in this process is more than 1000 minutes. Its speed is limited by the clumping up (agglomeration) of the products of the reaction into large particles (more than 200 μm) that don't have much surface area exposed to the hydrogen gas. For its practical application in distributed renewable energy, this prolonged reaction, requiring extreme conditions, is an impediment to ammonia production.

In the new study, researchers experimented with using lithium oxide (Li2O) as a molecular scaffold to synthesize ammonia under ambient pressure and temperatures below 400°C, conditions easy to mimic in nonindustrial settings. They combined the reactant lithium hydride with lithium oxide and found that the lithium hydride prevented clumping, leaving smaller particles (less than 50 μm) with more surface area exposed for chemical reactions. Using these non-agglomerated reactants and adding the gaseous hydrogen used in the final step of ammonia synthesis, they were able to produce ammonia more quickly; the reaction substantially sped up.

The lithium hydride or oxide thus acts as a catalyst. I remember Isaac Asimov once writing one of his science essays explaining catalysts, though I don't remember the details. Catalysts are an important part of industrial chemistry, and organisms have catalysts in them: enzymes. They don't change the thermodynamics of reactions, but they make reactions go faster than they otherwise would.

But if that can be gotten to work on a large scale, it could be a good alternative to the Haber-Bosch process.

There is also direct production of ammonia by electrolysis of water with nitrogen, something I've mentioned earlier.

I note that biological nitrogen fixing works in much the same way, making ammonia from nitrogen and electrons and hydrogen ions with the help of an enzyme called nitrogenase.

 

[Tigers!]

Senate committee considers poison pill wind energy bills

A series of bills professing to protect rural residents from industrial wind claim to bring transparency, limit abuse and enact safety measures to protect against the supposed health hazards of turbines.

In reality, they would transform Kansas, one of the top producers of wind energy for two decades, into one of the most restrictive states in the nation, pro-wind experts say.

Seems like opponents of wind energy want to regulate it to death, like what opponents of abortion have done in some states.

Just like what opponents of nuclear energy energy do. Regulate it to death - death by a thousand regulations.

 

[Swammerdami]

Solar Energy Has an Aluminum Problem | by The Happy Neuron | Dialogue & Discourse | Jan, 2022 | Medium - "Solar is growing rapidly, but producers are running out of aluminum, a not so carbon-friendly material."

... in China, by far the largest aluminum producer, 14.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide are emitted per tonne of aluminum. This is largely due to the use of ... electricity ...

But one can substitute renewable-energy electricity for coal-generated electricity, and the carbon-emission problem largely disappears.

One tonne of aluminum produces X solar panels, which generate Y kWh over their lifespan, replacing the electricity from Z tonnes of carbon. How does Z compare arithmetically with 14.5*12/44 ?

 

[lpetrich]

I decided to estimate how long is the breakeven time for photovoltaic cells and aluminum.

Aluminum Production - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics - "Aluminum production from bauxite via alumina is one of the most energy-intensive processes in the industry."

Electricity consumption in the production of aluminium | MrReid.org

U.S. Aluminum Production Energy Requirements: Historical Perspective, Theoretical Limits, and New Opportunities - SS03_Panel1_Paper02.pdf

Estimates: 13 to 17 kWh/kg for smelting.

Having gotten that, I turn to how much energy that one can expect from a photovoltaic cell. From How Much Energy Does A Solar Panel Produce? | EnergySage I estimate 170 - 200 watts per square meter.

How Many kWh Does A Solar Panel Produce Per Day? – Solar Website - has peak Sun hours per day. For US states, that number ranges from Massachusetts (northeast): 3 hr to Arizona (southwest): 7.5 hr. That reduces the daily average to 20 to 60 W/m^2.

How much do solar panels weigh? - Solect Energy
2.8 pounds per square foot (pitched roof) - 5 lb/ft^2 (flat roof) or 14 to 24 kg/m^2.

If that is all aluminum, then that is 200 to 400 kWh/m^2. That means 3300 to 20,000 hours or 140 to 833 days or 0.4 to 2.3 years.

So one gets energy breakeven in a few years.

 

[bilby]

But one can substitute renewable-energy electricity for coal-generated electricity, and the carbon-emission problem largely disappears.

But in reality, one CAN NOT do that. Renewable-energy electricity isn't like coal-generated electricity, in a number of very important ways, not least of which are reliability and predictability.

One CAN substitute zero carbon emissions nuclear energy for coal generated electricity. But wind or solar simply are not substitutes, for high intensity operations such as aluminium production.

Electricity isn't a commodity. It's a service. And an unreliable service is no substitute for a reliable one - regardless of any secondary benefits it might have.

That you really, trully, deeply WANT it to work doesn't imply that it works as a substitute. It simply doesn't.

Whatever you do with wind and solar, you still need a 100% backup for still nights. If we take fossil fuel off the table (and we must), you are left with nuclear and hydroelectric.

Once you have nuclear baseload and hydroelectric to load follow, you don't need any other generation systems. They're just a waste of materials, resources, time, effort and money.

The best I can say about wind power for supply to a power grid is that a few percent of it probably doesn't represent an enormous waste. But even that waste should probably be avoided.

It's a constant surprise to me that people who call themselves environmentalists are on a mission to reduce wastefulness everywhere, except electricity generation, where they embrace it as though it were a good thing.

We need a way to make as much electricity as we need on a windless night in a European midwinter (or an Australian midsummer), without burning fossil fuels. Once we have that in place, we no longer have any need for wind turbines or solar panels; So why are we wasting resources on them? They add nothing.

 

[bilby]

I decided to estimate how long is the breakeven time for photovoltaic cells and aluminum.

Aluminum Production - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics - "Aluminum production from bauxite via alumina is one of the most energy-intensive processes in the industry."

Electricity consumption in the production of aluminium | MrReid.org

U.S. Aluminum Production Energy Requirements: Historical Perspective, Theoretical Limits, and New Opportunities - SS03_Panel1_Paper02.pdf

Estimates: 13 to 17 kWh/kg for smelting.

Having gotten that, I turn to how much energy that one can expect from a photovoltaic cell. From How Much Energy Does A Solar Panel Produce? | EnergySage I estimate 170 - 200 watts per square meter.

How Many kWh Does A Solar Panel Produce Per Day? – Solar Website - has peak Sun hours per day. For US states, that number ranges from Massachusetts (northeast): 3 hr to Arizona (southwest): 7.5 hr. That reduces the daily average to 20 to 60 W/m^2.

How much do solar panels weigh? - Solect Energy
2.8 pounds per square foot (pitched roof) - 5 lb/ft^2 (flat roof) or 14 to 24 kg/m^2.

If that is all aluminum, then that is 200 to 400 kWh/m^2. That means 3300 to 20,000 hours or 140 to 833 days or 0.4 to 2.3 years.

So one gets energy breakeven in a few years.

As long as you ignore the reality that Aluminium smelting is a continuous process that becomes massively inefficient if you don't keep it going 24x7.

You can't just replace 30 continuous MWh per day with 90MWh for eight of every twenty four hours, and expect it to work. It's not enough to get it hot, you need to keep it hot continuously.

You can boil three eggs in three minutes. It doesn't follow that you can boil an egg in a minute, no matter that you're prepared to put three times the energy into the saucepan.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

In order for renewable solar/wind to work, you need to store excess power (and really, are we going to have that much excess power if we are trying to use it to replace hydrocarbons?).

And once you need to store it, it is getting ungreen real quickly as those storage methods are all non-renewable, unless it is pumped water, and that just works for surplus energy needs.

I hated nuclear when I was younger, but I think that was because of drama llama and a particular anti-nuclear left-wing position. The reality is, nuclear is beyond the greenest energy we have available unless we can tap the Van Allen belts or do some Dysoning on the sun. It requires security and a light touch, but last time I checked security exists at other plants which can actually blow up.

Nuclear requires a smaller building footprint, is less impactful on the environment compared to massive sprawls of solar or wind plants. Even an island like PEI in Canada, which is a no brainer location for wind, requires most of their energy to still come from across the waterway. And that is even after its wind energy capacity exploded by over a magnitude over ten years.

 

[ZiprHead]

At bioenergy crossroads, should corn ethanol be left in the rearview mirror?

Transportation is responsible for a larger share of greenhouse gas emissions than any other sector of the U.S. economy, making biofuels a promising strategy to mitigate human-driven climate change. The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, created by 2007 legislation, mandates that such fuels partially replace petroleum-based ones. So far, however, the mandate has been nearly entirely fulfilled by corn ethanol, a fuel that may be worse for the climate than the gasoline it replaces.

Fifteen years on, research led by the University of Wisconsin–Madison assessed the environmental impacts of corn ethanol and the policy that governs it, using a combination of econometric analyses, land use data and biophysical modeling.

Noting
Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard | PNAS

Even without considering likely international land use effects, we find that the production of corn-based ethanol in the United States has failed to meet the policy’s own greenhouse gas emissions targets and negatively affected water quality, the area of land used for conservation, and other ecosystem processes.

So this fuel is a failure.

But US Presidential candidates profess their undying love for the fuel when they visit Iowa, the state with the first Presidential primaries.

Sugar beets are better at producing ethanol but beet growers don't have the lobbying organizations corn growers do.