bilby
Fair dinkum thinkum
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2007
- Messages
- 34,279
- Gender
- He/Him
- Basic Beliefs
- Strong Atheist
I do recall seeing an article decades ago in Scientific American about fires in Yellowstone which they hypothesized were due to excessive fuel loads being allowed to build up because of a (then) policy of fighting all accessible fires, no matter how little threat they posed to life or property, and showing that allowing small fires to burn themselves out if they could do so harmlessly would reduce the potential for harm from future fires. I also seem to recall that as a result of that research the Yellowstone Park management strategy was changed, and that the new approach was found to be effective in reducing the incidence of large, dangerous fires.
But that wasn't in California - where conditions are totally different. And it was at least thirty years ago - I doubt that there are many forestry management organizations in the world who are unaware of that particular success. It seems very unlikely that the same fire protection strategy that works in forested mountains with low population density, would be applicable to a more densely populated coastal plain, with chaparral shrub lands subject to adiabatic winds descending from the mountains.
And all of the parklands that burned were properly maintained with firebreaks and fire roads for firefighting access. Everyone knows it can burn. The problem is you can't contain it in 50 mph winds when it is spreading a football field every 2 seconds.
aa
Yeah, just about the only effective defense against such conditions is to make sure you have two escape routes, and use them, ideally as soon as conditions are hazardous, but before actual fire or smoke are visible. Our fire protection services recommend evacuation today if conditions are forecast to be "Severe", "Extreme"or "Catastrophic" in your area tomorrow. Waiting until a fire has started in such conditions is usually leaving things too late.
https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/leave-early
Around here, there are six levels of fire danger rating. The second lowest of which is "High". The highest level is "Catastrophic" (known in Victoria as "Code Red"); 80km/h winds and dry conditions with high fuel loads would certainly qualify for a forecast of "Catastrophic".
Victoria Country Fire Authority said:In high-risk areas, leaving early is the safest option on Code Red days. Do not wait and see. Know your trigger to leave – make a decision about when you will leave, where you will go, how you will get there, when you will return and what you will do if you cannot leave.
Most houses are not designed or constructed to withstand fires in Code Red conditions. Defending your home is very risky. You could die or be seriously injured.
Only consider staying with your property on Extreme or Severe days if you are fully prepared and can actively defend your home. Defending a house requires at least two fit and determined
adults who are physically and mentally prepared to work long and hard in arduous and difficult conditions. It also requires at least 10,000 litres of water, protective clothing, and appropriate firefighting hoses and pumps.
If you are not prepared to the highest level, leaving high-risk bushfire areas early is your safest option.
Big, fast moving fires are not something humans can stand up to. You might as well try to turn back a tsunami. The only viable option is to evacuate, and hope there's something left to rebuild when you return.