The surprising results of the MH17 criminal investigation

[Jayjay]

According to Wikipedia, the BUK has the ability to identify commercial aircraft so thinking it was something other than kind of falls by the wayside.

Wikipedia is not clear on it, but that could just apply to the target acquisition radar. In this case, they did not use it. I do think it was an operator mistake in the sense that the flight altitude was too high and they could have had some double checking for civilian planes (public info, there is an app for that even), but the operators were probably not trained to do that kind of analysis. All they usually do is get the target coordinates from the TAR unit and they just wait for the plane to appear on their own targeting radar, then shoot it down.

 

[coloradoatheist]

According to Wikipedia, the BUK has the ability to identify commercial aircraft so thinking it was something other than kind of falls by the wayside.
Bronzeage has the most plausible assessment. Some dickhead just had to push the button.

But that doesn't explain why it was recently moved to that position.

I guess I saw too many Bond movies and spy movies to think this was Russia's attempt to create a proxy war to drive up oil prices in it's slumping economy.

 

[barbos]

According to Wikipedia, the BUK has the ability to identify commercial aircraft so thinking it was something other than kind of falls by the wayside.

Wikipedia is not clear on it, but that could just apply to the target acquisition radar. In this case, they did not use it. I do think it was an operator mistake in the sense that the flight altitude was too high and they could have had some double checking for civilian planes (public info, there is an app for that even), but the operators were probably not trained to do that kind of analysis. All they usually do is get the target coordinates from the TAR unit and they just wait for the plane to appear on their own targeting radar, then shoot it down.

In the original audio circulated by ukrainians recorded right after the crash, rebels express honest surprise by the fact that civilian planes were flying over them.

 

[barbos]

Jayjay, I was thinking about your alternative theory and I think it does not necessary require russians sending BUK, especially on such a short notice. Rebels twitted picture of the BUK they captured 2 weeks prior to incident. Ukrainians claimed it was disabled, but we don't know. So all ukrainians needed to do was to wait and occasionally divert commercial planes closer to place where they thought rebels keeping their BUK. They did not even need to feed false information, at most they could have intentionally let BUK be captured or simply left it intact instead of disabling.

 

[Bronzeage]

According to Wikipedia, the BUK has the ability to identify commercial aircraft so thinking it was something other than kind of falls by the wayside.
Bronzeage has the most plausible assessment. Some dickhead just had to push the button.

But that doesn't explain why it was recently moved to that position.

I guess I saw too many Bond movies and spy movies to think this was Russia's attempt to create a proxy war to drive up oil prices in it's slumping economy.

Russia's foreign and military policy since WW2 has always been to create buffers between them and any potential enemy. Since they lost control of the Eastern Block nations, this has become complicated. The grand strategy is to keep any neighboring country which can't be politically controlled, militarily impotent.

 

[barbos]

But that doesn't explain why it was recently moved to that position.

I guess I saw too many Bond movies and spy movies to think this was Russia's attempt to create a proxy war to drive up oil prices in it's slumping economy.

Russia's foreign and military policy since WW2 has always been to create buffers between them and any potential enemy. Since they lost control of the Eastern Block nations, this has become complicated. The grand strategy is to keep any neighboring country which can't be politically controlled, militarily impotent.

And American foreign and military policy has been to surround Russia with unfriendly regimes (Poland, Georgia, Baltic states, now Ukraine)

 

[Harry Bosch]

Russia's foreign and military policy since WW2 has always been to create buffers between them and any potential enemy. Since they lost control of the Eastern Block nations, this has become complicated. The grand strategy is to keep any neighboring country which can't be politically controlled, militarily impotent.

And American foreign and military policy has been to surround Russia with unfriendly regimes (Poland, Georgia, Baltic states, now Ukraine)

How are those big meanies being unfriendly towards Russia?

 

[coloradoatheist]

But that doesn't explain why it was recently moved to that position.

I guess I saw too many Bond movies and spy movies to think this was Russia's attempt to create a proxy war to drive up oil prices in it's slumping economy.

Russia's foreign and military policy since WW2 has always been to create buffers between them and any potential enemy. Since they lost control of the Eastern Block nations, this has become complicated. The grand strategy is to keep any neighboring country which can't be politically controlled, militarily impotent.

Both countries, US and russia had involvement in this proxy wars around the world. We did some of the same things in different countries.

So the two scenerios are

1) Ukraine wanted the rebels to shoot down a civilian airliner so they could gain popular support so they kept sending civilian airlines over and hope the Rebels would screw up and not identify the aircraft and shoot it down

2) Russia was helping the rebels and though giving them a BUK would help them, but somebody forgot to check what type of aircraft it was.

 

[barbos]

And American foreign and military policy has been to surround Russia with unfriendly regimes (Poland, Georgia, Baltic states, now Ukraine)

How are those big meanies being unfriendly towards Russia?

Mostly talking trash about russian threat and then americans point fingers and say "See, we need to do something about it"
But in case of Georgia, they started a little war with Russia.

 

[Harry Bosch]

How are those big meanies being unfriendly towards Russia?

Mostly talking trash about russian threat and then americans point fingers and say "See, we need to do something about it"
But in case of Georgia, they started a little war with Russia.

Well, Poland and the Baltic states just don't want to be invaded by Russia. That doesn't make them big meanies. They just want to be sovereign. I don't know much about Georgia. Russians have already taken Eastern Ukraine.

 

[barbos]

Russia's foreign and military policy since WW2 has always been to create buffers between them and any potential enemy. Since they lost control of the Eastern Block nations, this has become complicated. The grand strategy is to keep any neighboring country which can't be politically controlled, militarily impotent.

Both countries, US and russia had involvement in this proxy wars around the world. We did some of the same things in different countries.

So the two scenerios are

1) Ukraine wanted the rebels to shoot down a civilian airliner so they could gain popular support so they kept sending civilian airlines over and hope the Rebels would screw up and not identify the aircraft and shoot it down

2) Russia was helping the rebels and though giving them a BUK would help them, but somebody forgot to check what type of aircraft it was.

That's what I suggested as a modification of Jayjay's alternative theory. But regarding your 2. Ukrainian military planes which were used against rebels were flying pretty low and BUK was a sure overkill for them. All these ukrainian planes which had been shot prior to incident were shot using stinger type missiles. So sending BUK would have been needless..... and dangerous.

 

[barbos]

Mostly talking trash about russian threat and then americans point fingers and say "See, we need to do something about it"
But in case of Georgia, they started a little war with Russia.

Well, Poland and the Baltic states just don't want to be invaded by Russia.

They know damn well that Russia is not going to, but US wants them to say what they say.

That doesn't make them big meanies.

No it does not, what makes them meanies is lying.

They just want to be sovereign. I don't know much about Georgia. Russians have already taken Eastern Ukraine.

And US have taken the rest of Ukraine

 

[coloradoatheist]

Both countries, US and russia had involvement in this proxy wars around the world. We did some of the same things in different countries.

So the two scenerios are

1) Ukraine wanted the rebels to shoot down a civilian airliner so they could gain popular support so they kept sending civilian airlines over and hope the Rebels would screw up and not identify the aircraft and shoot it down

2) Russia was helping the rebels and though giving them a BUK would help them, but somebody forgot to check what type of aircraft it was.

That's what I suggested as a modification of Jayjay's alternative theory. But regarding your 2. Ukrainian military planes which were used against rebels were flying pretty low and BUK was a sure overkill for them. All these ukrainian planes which had been shot prior to incident were shot using stinger type missiles. So sending BUK would have been needless..... and dangerous.

But that then brings up a bad point too, if the rebels brought in a BAK knowing it was overkill for Ukrainian planes, then they knew they were shooting down a civilian aircraft.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Well, Poland and the Baltic states just don't want to be invaded by Russia.

They know damn well that Russia is not going to, but US wants them to say what they say.

That doesn't make them big meanies.

No it does not, what makes them meanies is lying.

They just want to be sovereign. I don't know much about Georgia. Russians have already taken Eastern Ukraine.

And US have taken the rest of Ukraine

How do they know that Russia won't invade?

 

[barbos]

That's what I suggested as a modification of Jayjay's alternative theory. But regarding your 2. Ukrainian military planes which were used against rebels were flying pretty low and BUK was a sure overkill for them. All these ukrainian planes which had been shot prior to incident were shot using stinger type missiles. So sending BUK would have been needless..... and dangerous.

But that then brings up a bad point too, if the rebels brought in a BAK knowing it was overkill for Ukrainian planes, then they knew they were shooting down a civilian aircraft.

Rebels did not care and may not have known it, they were not even aware of commercial planes, they (supposedly) captured it and they were going to use it. Russians on the other hand were professional military men and knew well it was a complete overkill and dangerous.
If we to believe that audio then russians covered up this shit for rebels. But do we know how that audio was intercepted? I would like to know why it took 2 years for this audio to appear. How do we know it's not forgery? Russians are not going to just send these people to analyze their voices.

 

[barbos]

They know damn well that Russia is not going to, but US wants them to say what they say.

That doesn't make them big meanies.

No it does not, what makes them meanies is lying.

They just want to be sovereign. I don't know much about Georgia. Russians have already taken Eastern Ukraine.

And US have taken the rest of Ukraine

How do they know that Russia won't invade?

How do they know that Russia would invade?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

According to Wikipedia, the BUK has the ability to identify commercial aircraft so thinking it was something other than kind of falls by the wayside.
Bronzeage has the most plausible assessment. Some dickhead just had to push the button.

Having the ability doesn't mean the operator was sufficiently skilled to actually determine what the target was.

- - - Updated - - -

There are different BUKs and they all have different configurations. And really, there are no certain way to identify a plane.

Of course there's no perfect identification. If it has an ability to do so that means it has the ability to read the transponder and see what the plane says it is.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

In the original audio circulated by ukrainians recorded right after the crash, rebels express honest surprise by the fact that civilian planes were flying over them.

Which is the most logical explanation--they figured anything up there was Ukranian military and so they simply fired at anything they could.

The problem is that most of those "rebels" were really Russian troops pretending to be rebels. Russia sent them, Russia is responsible.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Both countries, US and russia had involvement in this proxy wars around the world. We did some of the same things in different countries.

So the two scenerios are

1) Ukraine wanted the rebels to shoot down a civilian airliner so they could gain popular support so they kept sending civilian airlines over and hope the Rebels would screw up and not identify the aircraft and shoot it down

2) Russia was helping the rebels and though giving them a BUK would help them, but somebody forgot to check what type of aircraft it was.

That's what I suggested as a modification of Jayjay's alternative theory. But regarding your 2. Ukrainian military planes which were used against rebels were flying pretty low and BUK was a sure overkill for them. All these ukrainian planes which had been shot prior to incident were shot using stinger type missiles. So sending BUK would have been needless..... and dangerous.

MANPADs can only engage fairly low-flying aircraft. That doesn't mean there weren't higher flying Ukrainian aircraft they wanted to shoot at. I can't find a MANPAD with a ceiling of more than a couple of miles--and note that missiles are nowhere near as reliable at the end of their range. MANPADs can only attack aircraft landing/taking off or going low to attack. Jets normally cruise beyond the range of MANPADs.

 

[barbos]

Of course there's no perfect identification. If it has an ability to do so that means it has the ability to read the transponder and see what the plane says it is.

As far as I understand that thing was in minimal configuration which had no identification at all, just tracking radar for the missiles.