This is What is Going to Happen - we need suppression, not mitigation

[Elixir]

This is by far the best article I have read to-date on the epidemiology of COVID-19. I strongly urge everyone to read it, and in fact think it should be required reading for anyone with a high school education.

The article spells out what will likely occur in terms of infections, hospitalizations, critical cases and deaths from COVID-19 over time depending on what steps are taken.
AFAIK it uses the most massive data set of any compiled to date, and all the assumptions are transparently laid out. Please read, share, distribute. Let's get our politicians educated on their options and the consequences of the decisions they are going to have to make in short order.


THANK YOU

This article has been the result of a herculean effort by a group of normal citizens working around the clock to find all the relevant research available to structure it into one piece, in case it can help others process all the information that is out there about the coronavirus.

 

[Elixir]

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If we keep the infections that low (good luck on doing it!) we will have to do a very strict quarantine of all travelers until a vaccine comes along. I don't think we can maintain such a quarantine.

 

[Elixir]

If we keep the infections that low (good luck on doing it!) we will have to do a very strict quarantine of all travelers until a vaccine comes along. I don't think we can maintain such a quarantine.

Well, that's kinda the point. If we go hard and fast we don't have to maintain it so much. Start now, go hard and put strict controls on behavior for a number of weeks (best possible outcome ~4000 US deaths), or ... put half assed measures in place and let it balloon, then be forced to put harsh measures in place for 18 months (worst possible outcome ~10,000,000 US deaths).

In that worst possible outcome, those deaths are only the primary ones directly caused by the disease, and mostly due to the fact that the care and treatment resources wouldn't even be close to adequate. It doesn't include the heart attack patient who dies before EMS gets there because EMS is overwhelmed with Corvid-19 patients or other such deaths.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

China and South Korea have turned the epidemic. I honestly think the US is incapable of mounting a similar proactive response.

BTW that was an excellent article.

 

[Elixir]

China and South Korea have turned the epidemic. I honestly think the US is incapable of mounting a similar proactive response.

The Cheato cartel and Moscow Mitch will probably reject any measure that would put a stop to this thing before it's time for the November election - which they will then cancel. The White House has already declined to invoke the Defense Production Act which would put a big dent in the spread of the Trump Virus, and now they want another giveaway to big business with zero assurance that they won't just use the money for more stock buybacks.

Again - if we locked the country down for a few weeks starting NOW, there could be as few as 4000 American deaths. If we don't, there might be ten million.
That is a factor of 2,500, meaning that for every person who is inevitably going to die, these jackasses are likely to kill up to 2500 more people just to keep themselves in power.

BTW that was an excellent article.

I agree - and again, I think it should be required reading. People don't understand how critical timely action is.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If we keep the infections that low (good luck on doing it!) we will have to do a very strict quarantine of all travelers until a vaccine comes along. I don't think we can maintain such a quarantine.

Well, that's kinda the point. If we go hard and fast we don't have to maintain it so much. Start now, go hard and put strict controls on behavior for a number of weeks (best possible outcome ~4000 US deaths), or ... put half assed measures in place and let it balloon, then be forced to put harsh measures in place for 18 months (worst possible outcome ~10,000,000 US deaths).

In that worst possible outcome, those deaths are only the primary ones directly caused by the disease, and mostly due to the fact that the care and treatment resources wouldn't even be close to adequate. It doesn't include the heart attack patient who dies before EMS gets there because EMS is overwhelmed with Corvid-19 patients or other such deaths.

I don't understand. We can't hope to drive the count to zero, we are going to have to deal with this until we have immunity, either from infection or vaccine.

This morning's newsletters included a video about how to use one ventilator on 4 patients at once. Hospitals are going to need to take that sort of risk.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well, we are already passed 40,000 infections, and it seems 100,000+ by Fri/Sat seems inevitable as state governments react too late to the crisis over economic concerns that have gone unaddressed by Congress and President Trump.

If we keep the infections that low (good luck on doing it!) we will have to do a very strict quarantine of all travelers until a vaccine comes along. I don't think we can maintain such a quarantine.

Well, that's kinda the point. If we go hard and fast we don't have to maintain it so much. Start now, go hard and put strict controls on behavior for a number of weeks (best possible outcome ~4000 US deaths), or ... put half assed measures in place and let it balloon, then be forced to put harsh measures in place for 18 months (worst possible outcome ~10,000,000 US deaths).

In that worst possible outcome, those deaths are only the primary ones directly caused by the disease, and mostly due to the fact that the care and treatment resources wouldn't even be close to adequate. It doesn't include the heart attack patient who dies before EMS gets there because EMS is overwhelmed with Corvid-19 patients or other such deaths.

I don't understand. We can't hope to drive the count to zero, we are going to have to deal with this until we have immunity, either from infection or vaccine.

This morning's newsletters included a video about how to use one ventilator on 4 patients at once. Hospitals are going to need are being forced to take that sort of risk.

 

[Half-Life]

China and South Korea have turned the epidemic. I honestly think the US is incapable of mounting a similar proactive response.

The Cheato cartel and Moscow Mitch will probably reject any measure that would put a stop to this thing before it's time for the November election - which they will then cancel. The White House has already declined to invoke the Defense Production Act which would put a big dent in the spread of the Trump Virus, and now they want another giveaway to big business with zero assurance that they won't just use the money for more stock buybacks.

Again - if we locked the country down for a few weeks starting NOW, there could be as few as 4000 American deaths. If we don't, there might be ten million.
That is a factor of 2,500, meaning that for every person who is inevitably going to die, these jackasses are likely to kill up to 2500 more people just to keep themselves in power.

BTW that was an excellent article.

I agree - and again, I think it should be required reading. People don't understand how critical timely action is.

Did you really just cal it the "Trump virus?" I can not believe what I am reading.

Did you also call the Swine Flu "the Obama Flu?" I'm guessing not.

How can people be so stupid as to think Trump is a bumbling buffoon and also capable of creating a virus in the lab all by himself???

Classic fascist double think. The enemy must be weak and strong at the same time.

 

[Keith&Co.]

How can people be so stupid as to think Trump is a bumbling buffoon and also capable of creating a virus in the lab all by himself???

No, child, just no.
This is a Trump Flu not gecsuse he's the source, but because he cannot bribe it, bully it, or sic lawyers on it. And no matter how hard any Republicans try to cover his ass, it's still going to be there, killing people, on his watch.
It has defeated all of his usual tricks, and clearly highlighted his failings as a leader.
It is definitely his defining crisis, and he's fucking it up.

 

[Half-Life]

How can people be so stupid as to think Trump is a bumbling buffoon and also capable of creating a virus in the lab all by himself???

No, child, just no.
This is a Trump Flu not gecsuse he's the source, but because he cannot bribe it, bully it, or sic lawyers on it. And no matter how hard any Republicans try to cover his ass, it's still going to be there, killing people, on his watch.
It has defeated all of his usual tricks, and clearly highlighted his failings as a leader.
It is definitely his defining crisis, and he's fucking it up.

Oh, I see. And Obama would've saved us all from it, right? As soon as that first case happened, the CDC would've had a vaccine ready somehow under Obama but now they refuse because it's Trump???

Face it, Obama would've been dead in the water, too. It's not fair to blame a virus on a President, regardless of party. It's just not their fault. Period.

Bubonic plague was the fault of the rulers in the Middle Ages?

Swine Flu and Ebola were Obama's fault?

What if there is a vaccine and they are holding out because it would make Trump look good? Ever think of that?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The Cheato cartel and Moscow Mitch will probably reject any measure that would put a stop to this thing before it's time for the November election - which they will then cancel. The White House has already declined to invoke the Defense Production Act which would put a big dent in the spread of the Trump Virus, and now they want another giveaway to big business with zero assurance that they won't just use the money for more stock buybacks.

Again - if we locked the country down for a few weeks starting NOW, there could be as few as 4000 American deaths. If we don't, there might be ten million.
That is a factor of 2,500, meaning that for every person who is inevitably going to die, these jackasses are likely to kill up to 2500 more people just to keep themselves in power.



I agree - and again, I think it should be required reading. People don't understand how critical timely action is.

Did you really just cal it the "Trump virus?" I can not believe what I am reading.

Did you also call the Swine Flu "the Obama Flu?" I'm guessing not.

How can people be so stupid as to think Trump is a bumbling buffoon and also capable of creating a virus in the lab all by himself???

Classic fascist double think. The enemy must be weak and strong at the same time.

It's the Trump Virus because he's instrumental in making it an even worse disaster than it needs to be.

 

[Elixir]

The Cheato cartel and Moscow Mitch will probably reject any measure that would put a stop to this thing before it's time for the November election - which they will then cancel. The White House has already declined to invoke the Defense Production Act which would put a big dent in the spread of the Trump Virus, and now they want another giveaway to big business with zero assurance that they won't just use the money for more stock buybacks.

Again - if we locked the country down for a few weeks starting NOW, there could be as few as 4000 American deaths. If we don't, there might be ten million.
That is a factor of 2,500, meaning that for every person who is inevitably going to die, these jackasses are likely to kill up to 2500 more people just to keep themselves in power.



I agree - and again, I think it should be required reading. People don't understand how critical timely action is.

Did you really just cal it the "Trump virus?" I can not believe what I am reading.

Did you also call the Swine Flu "the Obama Flu?" I'm guessing not.

How can people be so stupid as to think Trump is a bumbling buffoon and also capable of creating a virus in the lab all by himself???

Classic fascist double think. The enemy must be weak and strong at the same time.

It's the Trump Virus because he's instrumental in making it an even worse disaster than it needs to be.

Half-wits who can't read and understand the OP need something to complain about. Let them stew in defense of the Trump Virus - it's their greatest asset right now, as its continued spread is the last hope of saving the Trump regime from being ousted in November.

 

[Half-Life]

It's the Trump Virus because he's instrumental in making it an even worse disaster than it needs to be.

How is he making it worse?

If he did a mandatory lockdown like China did where nobody can leave their house for weeks, you guys would be screaming, "AUTHORITARIAN!!!"

Be glad he's actually not an authoritarian. Trump is always damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

 

[Half-Life]

It's the Trump Virus because he's instrumental in making it an even worse disaster than it needs to be.

Half-wits who can't read and understand the OP need something to complain about. Let them stew in defense of the Trump Virus - it's their greatest asset right now, as its continued spread is the last hope of saving the Trump regime from being ousted in November.

It is NOT the Trump virus anymore than the Swine Flu was the Obama flu!!!

C'mon guys, you need to be smarter. Using a virus to say it's Trump's fault the virus exists just looks like even more insane TDS taken to extreme heights.

I picture some blue haired college skinny feminine man twerp screaming on campus about how it's all Trump's fault the virus exists.

 

[Elixir]

It's the Trump Virus because he's instrumental in making it an even worse disaster than it needs to be.

How is he making it worse?

By lying of course. He's too stupid to understand thing one about epidemiology, so he lies.
Are you like that? Try reading the article linked in the OP... or are you, like Trump, so afraid of science that you'd rather remain ignorant?

 

[Keith&Co.]

How can people be so stupid as to think Trump is a bumbling buffoon and also capable of creating a virus in the lab all by himself???

No, child, just no.
This is a Trump Flu not gecsuse he's the source, but because he cannot bribe it, bully it, or sic lawyers on it. And no matter how hard any Republicans try to cover his ass, it's still going to be there, killing people, on his watch.
It has defeated all of his usual tricks, and clearly highlighted his failings as a leader.
It is definitely his defining crisis, and he's fucking it up.

Oh, I see. And Obama would've saved us all from it, right? As soon as that first case happened, the CDC would've had a vaccine ready somehow under Obama but now they refuse because it's Trump???

no one said that.
God, Obama is SUCH a boogeyman for y'all.

Face it, Obama would've been dead in the water, too.

unlikely.
Obama listened to experts. For the Swine Flu, he announced a medical emergency within days.
Trump hoped it would go away if he ignored it.

It's not fair to blame a virus on a President, regardless of party. It's just not their fault. Period.

no one's blaming the virus on Trump.
We are blaming Trump's response on Trump.

Bubonic plague was the fault of the rulers in the Middle Ages?

learn to read.

Swine Flu and Ebola were Obama's fault?

reading rainbow was just something thgat happened to other people, wasn't it?

What if there is a vaccine and they are holding out because it would make Trump look good? Ever think of that?

no. But feel free to fantasize thatveveryone else is as self-centered as Bonespurs.

 

[Half-Life]

Oh, I see. And Obama would've saved us all from it, right? As soon as that first case happened, the CDC would've had a vaccine ready somehow under Obama but now they refuse because it's Trump???

no one said that.
God, Obama is SUCH a boogeyman for y'all.

Face it, Obama would've been dead in the water, too.

unlikely.
Obama listened to experts. For the Swine Flu, he announced a medical emergency within days.
Trump hoped it would go away if he ignored it.

It's not fair to blame a virus on a President, regardless of party. It's just not their fault. Period.

no one's blaming the virus on Trump.
We are blaming Trump's response on Trump.

Bubonic plague was the fault of the rulers in the Middle Ages?

learn to read.

Swine Flu and Ebola were Obama's fault?

reading rainbow was just something thgat happened to other people, wasn't it?

What if there is a vaccine and they are holding out because it would make Trump look good? Ever think of that?

no. But feel free to fantasize thatveveryone else is as self-centered as Bonespurs.

Obama didn't listen to the experts. There are experts economists who say that Obama was an absolute moron when it came to economic decisions.

Let's also not forget that Obama won a Peace Prize for continuing a war.

If that's not media bias, then nothing is.

 

[Keith&Co.]

no one said that.
God, Obama is SUCH a boogeyman for y'all. unlikely.
Obama listened to experts. For the Swine Flu, he announced a medical emergency within days.
Trump hoped it would go away if he ignored it.

It's not fair to blame a virus on a President, regardless of party. It's just not their fault. Period.

no one's blaming the virus on Trump.
We are blaming Trump's response on Trump.

Bubonic plague was the fault of the rulers in the Middle Ages?

learn to read.

Swine Flu and Ebola were Obama's fault?

reading rainbow was just something thgat happened to other people, wasn't it?

What if there is a vaccine and they are holding out because it would make Trump look good? Ever think of that?

no. But feel free to fantasize thatveveryone else is as self-centered as Bonespurs.

Obama didn't listen to the experts. There are experts economists who say that Obama was an absolute moron when it came to economic decisions.

there are people who SAY he was from Kenya, too. Who gives a fuck?
You werevtalking about how Obama would have responded to this virus.
His track record on epidemics is way better than The Shitgibbon's.

Let's also not forget that Obama won a Peace Prize for continuing a war.

you brought up Obama.
Deal with actual comparisons between the two predidents IN AN EPIDEMIC or STFU.

 

[Elixir]

Deal with actual comparisons between the two predidents IN AN EPIDEMIC or STFU.

But her emails!!!
Alt-white ignoramuses (ignorami?) are unable to wrap their little minds around the mechanics of epidemiology, let alone compare responses. It is hard enough for them to understand that no Americans died when Obama managed the ebola epidemic, and that Trump is killing people by the tens of thousands even as they bloviate about Obama, Hillary and other matters that have absolutely no relevance to the problem at hand.

I feel compelled to remind you Keith - you are talking to THIS person:

My prediction is that by April we will be laughing going, "Remember how everyone panicked over the coronavirus because the media started fear mongering?"

03-16-2020, 05:37 PM - one week ago today.