The Virus - Are You Affected?

[Politesse]

Six Bay Area Counties, including my own, were just put into "shelter in place" - no businesses except health services and grocers to remain open, everyone encouraged to stay home. The 500th case in the state was recently reported. Trump has told the entire nation to avoid congregating in groups larger than 10. My school, originally closed for 2 weeks, is now officially remote-only through June, and preparing for the possibility of a Fall term continuation.

 

[Derec]

View attachment 26585

I have been seeing this kind of comparison a lot lately. People ignore that the population of Italy is more than five times smaller. So the blue bar would have to be shrunk by a factor of five for it to be a fair comparison with the red bar.

The takeaway is: we are not on the trajectory of Italy. Not even close.

Btw: there seems to be some evidence that Italy is finally turning the corner.

From here.
The slope of the logarithmic plot is flattening, which means that the growth rate is going down.

 

[skepticalbip]

View attachment 26585

I have been seeing this kind of comparison a lot lately. People ignore that the population of Italy is more than five times smaller. So the blue bar would have to be shrunk by a factor of five for it to be a fair comparison with the red bar.

But that wouldn't be as scary and provocative. If you want clicks, you've got to be provocative.

 

[Elixir]

View attachment 26585

I have been seeing this kind of comparison a lot lately. People ignore that the population of Italy is more than five times smaller. So the blue bar would have to be shrunk by a factor of five for it to be a fair comparison with the red bar.

But that wouldn't be as scary and provocative. If you want clicks, you've got to be provocative.

Not really. Try it as a percentage of total population instead of gross numbers, and we're still looking like day 4-5. There's no assurance whatsoever that the curve won't look identical once the same percentage of population is reached that Italy is at now.
The main mitigating factor if there is one (assuming restricted mobility of the citizenry henceforth), is the lower population density of the US.

 

[Jarhyn]

But that wouldn't be as scary and provocative. If you want clicks, you've got to be provocative.

Not really. Try it as a percentage of total population instead of gross numbers, and we're still looking like day 4-5. There's no assurance whatsoever that the curve won't look identical once the same percentage of population is reached that Italy is at now.
The main mitigating factor if there is one (assuming restricted mobility of the citizenry henceforth), is the lower population density of the US.

I think that's where they fail to understand that once you enter exponential territory, it looks the same no matter what your scale is.

Our virus response is shit. It is on a clear path, and continues to increase exponentially.

 

[skepticalbip]

But that wouldn't be as scary and provocative. If you want clicks, you've got to be provocative.

Not really. Try it as a percentage of total population instead of gross numbers, and we're still looking like day 4-5. There's no assurance whatsoever that the curve won't look identical once the same percentage of population is reached that Italy is at now.
The main mitigating factor if there is one (assuming restricted mobility of the citizenry henceforth), is the lower population density of the US.

The graph is supposedly representing what the CURRENT situation IS in blue. It shows casses, not the percentage of population that would make the comparison meaningful. What the trend will be in the future in the U.S. is unknown. It MAY follow the trend in Italy or it MAY be drastically different. Since Italy did not institute early measures to mitigate the spread and the U.S. did, the chances are that the trends will be different.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

But that wouldn't be as scary and provocative. If you want clicks, you've got to be provocative.

Not really. Try it as a percentage of total population instead of gross numbers, and we're still looking like day 4-5. There's no assurance whatsoever that the curve won't look identical once the same percentage of population is reached that Italy is at now.
The main mitigating factor if there is one (assuming restricted mobility of the citizenry henceforth), is the lower population density of the US.

The graph is supposedly representing what the CURRENT situation IS in blue. It shows casses, not the percentage of population that would make the comparison meaningful. What the trend will be in the future in the U.S. is unknown. It MAY follow the trend in Italy or it MAY be drastically different. Since Italy did not institute early measures to mitigate the spread and the U.S. did, the chances are that the trends will be different.

The US enacted policies quicker?

 

[skepticalbip]

The graph is supposedly representing what the CURRENT situation IS in blue. It shows casses, not the percentage of population that would make the comparison meaningful. What the trend will be in the future in the U.S. is unknown. It MAY follow the trend in Italy or it MAY be drastically different. Since Italy did not institute early measures to mitigate the spread and the U.S. did, the chances are that the trends will be different.

The US enacted policies quicker?

Yes.

 

[Derec]

Not really. Try it as a percentage of total population instead of gross numbers, and we're still looking like day 4-5.

Exactly. The numbers look like day 4-5 but we are already much further in chronologically. That indicates a slower progression - the epidemic in the US did not start just 5 days ago!

There's no assurance whatsoever that the curve won't look identical once the same percentage of population is reached that Italy is at now.

There is no assurance of anything in life. The question is when - and if - we reach the same percentage of population. According to Worldometers, Italy has 20.6k active cases, or 1 in every 3000 people. That corresponds to about 110k active cases in the US. We have 3.5k active cases as of yesterday. So an increase of 31x. Not impossible that with exponential growth we will get there within 2-3 weeks, but hopefully it doesn't come to that.

The main mitigating factor if there is one (assuming restricted mobility of the citizenry henceforth), is the lower population density of the US.

That is one thing. US undertaking all these draconian measures at far lower fraction of cases is another. Warmer weather could also slow down the spread of the virus. Then comes the somewhat higher median age and I think also smoking rate.

 

[ZiprHead]

Mitch McConnell complains it’s not fair for his opponent to be attacking him while there’s a pandemic going on

“Amy McGrath’s decision to blanket the airwaves with deceitful ads during the coronavirus outbreak is tasteless and shameful,” said Kevin Golden, the manager of McConnell’s re-election campaign. “As Kentuckians adjust their daily lives and schedules to help stem the outbreak, the last thing they need to see on TV is negative political advertising. The McGrath campaign must stop airing all of their advertisements.”

McConnell, incidentally, has received harsh criticism for how he has handled the outbreak in the first place, as he kept the Senate in recess for three days as the crisis exploded.

 

[Derec]

I think that's where they fail to understand that once you enter exponential territory, it looks the same no matter what your scale is.

Until you leave the exponential territory.

As you can see, only the first part of the curve looks exponential.
And within the exponential territory, not all exponentials are equivalent. And the slower one with "flattening of the curve" will look exponential for longer.

Our virus response is shit. It is on a clear path, and continues to increase exponentially.

But the question is, what's the exponential increase rate and how long until the exponential behavior ends.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The graph is supposedly representing what the CURRENT situation IS in blue. It shows casses, not the percentage of population that would make the comparison meaningful. What the trend will be in the future in the U.S. is unknown. It MAY follow the trend in Italy or it MAY be drastically different. Since Italy did not institute early measures to mitigate the spread and the U.S. did, the chances are that the trends will be different.

The US enacted policies quicker?

Yes.

My news feed must be busted. Has Congress established legislation of any reasonable magnitude for this problem? Did states not need to go it alone? Are kids not not going to school in some states?

 

[Half-Life]

My prediction is that by April we will be laughing going, "Remember how everyone panicked over the coronavirus because the media started fear mongering?"

The flu reinvented itself after 100 years and now everyone's in a panic because of the media. When I was younger, if you didn't have chicken pox, your parents would invent a friend over who had it so you could get it and be done with it. This isolation nonsense is frustrating. I wish I could tell everyone, "Stop getting your info from the media! They are designed to fear monger!"

THink about it logically. They are telling bars, restaurants, schools to close. Sports have been cancelled. But places like 711, convenience stores and supermarkets? Still open no problem. Why is this? Either it's a problem or it's not. i suppose they are sending a message that, "you can get the virus at a bar or a restaurant but you can't get it form convenience stores or supermarkets!"

 

[Keith&Co.]

THink about it logically.

always a challenge for you....

They are telling bars, restaurants, schools to close. Sports have been cancelled.

places people congregate for non-crucial reasons, OR are putting children at risk.

But places like 711, convenience stores and supermarkets? Still open no problem.

Crucial businesses?
You cannot figure out why a basketball game is contraindicated, but people still need to get food. This is

Logic

to you, Halfie?

Why is this? Either it's a problem or it's not.

it is still a problem, but it's more of a cost/benefits assessment.

i suppose they are sending a message that, "you can get the virus at a bar or a restaurant but you can't get it form convenience stores or supermarkets!"

no, that's not the message.
Nice to see you batting your usual thousand on being fucking wrong, Halfie.

 

[ZiprHead]

My prediction is that by April we will be laughing going, "Remember how everyone panicked over the coronavirus because the media started fear mongering?"

The flu reinvented itself after 100 years and now everyone's in a panic because of the media. When I was younger, if you didn't have chicken pox, your parents would invent a friend over who had it so you could get it and be done with it. This isolation nonsense is frustrating. I wish I could tell everyone, "Stop getting your info from the media! They are designed to fear monger!"

THink about it logically. They are telling bars, restaurants, schools to close. Sports have been cancelled. But places like 711, convenience stores and supermarkets? Still open no problem. Why is this? Either it's a problem or it's not. i suppose they are sending a message that, "you can get the virus at a bar or a restaurant but you can't get it form convenience stores or supermarkets!"

You do realize people still need to buy food, right?

Or are you planning to absorb nutrients through the air?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

You do realize people still need to buy food, right?

Or are you planning to absorb nutrients through the air?

I don't think Halfie thinks that far ahead.

 

[Half-Life]

My prediction is that by April we will be laughing going, "Remember how everyone panicked over the coronavirus because the media started fear mongering?"

The flu reinvented itself after 100 years and now everyone's in a panic because of the media. When I was younger, if you didn't have chicken pox, your parents would invent a friend over who had it so you could get it and be done with it. This isolation nonsense is frustrating. I wish I could tell everyone, "Stop getting your info from the media! They are designed to fear monger!"

THink about it logically. They are telling bars, restaurants, schools to close. Sports have been cancelled. But places like 711, convenience stores and supermarkets? Still open no problem. Why is this? Either it's a problem or it's not. i suppose they are sending a message that, "you can get the virus at a bar or a restaurant but you can't get it form convenience stores or supermarkets!"

You do realize people still need to buy food, right?

Or are you planning to absorb nutrients through the air?

So you are saying the employees at supermarkets and 711's are expendable?

I know someone who still works at 711 and he said he had to go in with a fever because the manager screamed at him "We can't close! You need to come in!" He told him not to tell the customers he was sick though.

 

[Keith&Co.]

My prediction is that by April we will be laughing going, "Remember how everyone panicked over the coronavirus because the media started fear mongering?"

The flu reinvented itself after 100 years and now everyone's in a panic because of the media. When I was younger, if you didn't have chicken pox, your parents would invent a friend over who had it so you could get it and be done with it. This isolation nonsense is frustrating. I wish I could tell everyone, "Stop getting your info from the media! They are designed to fear monger!"

THink about it logically. They are telling bars, restaurants, schools to close. Sports have been cancelled. But places like 711, convenience stores and supermarkets? Still open no problem. Why is this? Either it's a problem or it's not. i suppose they are sending a message that, "you can get the virus at a bar or a restaurant but you can't get it form convenience stores or supermarkets!"

You do realize people still need to buy food, right?

Or are you planning to absorb nutrients through the air?

So you are saying the employees at supermarkets and 711's are expendable?

who said that?

 

[ZiprHead]

My prediction is that by April we will be laughing going, "Remember how everyone panicked over the coronavirus because the media started fear mongering?"

The flu reinvented itself after 100 years and now everyone's in a panic because of the media. When I was younger, if you didn't have chicken pox, your parents would invent a friend over who had it so you could get it and be done with it. This isolation nonsense is frustrating. I wish I could tell everyone, "Stop getting your info from the media! They are designed to fear monger!"

THink about it logically. They are telling bars, restaurants, schools to close. Sports have been cancelled. But places like 711, convenience stores and supermarkets? Still open no problem. Why is this? Either it's a problem or it's not. i suppose they are sending a message that, "you can get the virus at a bar or a restaurant but you can't get it form convenience stores or supermarkets!"

You do realize people still need to buy food, right?

Or are you planning to absorb nutrients through the air?

So you are saying the employees at supermarkets and 711's are expendable?

I know someone who still works at 711 and he said he had to go in with a fever because the manager screamed at him "We can't close! You need to come in!" He told him not to tell the customers he was sick though.

Not expendable but necessary.

What do you think would happen if grocery stores shut down?

 

[Half-Life]

So you are saying the employees at supermarkets and 711's are expendable?

I know someone who still works at 711 and he said he had to go in with a fever because the manager screamed at him "We can't close! You need to come in!" He told him not to tell the customers he was sick though.

Not expendable but necessary.

What do you think would happen if grocery stores shut down?

What can you buy at a 711 that you can't buy at a grocery store?