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This looks very, very bad. U.S. May Launch Strike If North Korea Reaches For Nuclear Trigger

There was another poster here, whose name I forget, back on FRDB who was (or claimed to be, and likely was) an expert on this particular issue and said any war with NK, even without nukes in play, would be the worst human disaster since WWII. The US and SK would ultimately win but there would invariably be millions of dead civilians on either side.

I'd be interested in hearing from him now. I've been trying to gauge qualified opinions this week. I've yet to see any that think a pre-emptive strike is in any way a good idea. Most doubt it's going to happen - saber rattling as usual - but the crass insanity of the current administration is making things more complicated, and dangerous.
 
We have strength equal to a couple divisions with I don't know what capability. More in Japan, Okinawa etc. Plus whatever the SKs have. This eventuality has been planned for since the war ended.

But it looks as if Kim has backed down, at least for now.


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Warpoet said:
There was another poster here, whose name I forget, back on FRDB who was (or claimed to be, and likely was) an expert on this particular issue and said any war with NK, even without nukes in play, would be the worst human disaster since WWII. The US and SK would ultimately win but there would invariably be millions of dead civilians on either side.

I'd be interested in hearing from him now. I've been trying to gauge qualified opinions this week. I've yet to see any that think a pre-emptive strike is in any way a good idea. Most doubt it's going to happen - saber rattling as usual - but the crass insanity of the current administration is making things more complicated, and dangerous.
Click to expand...

Funny you mention that because I was thinking the same thing.

- - - Updated - - -

Horatio Parker said:
We have strength equal to a couple divisions with I don't know what capability. More in Japan, Okinawa etc. Plus whatever the SKs have. This eventuality has been planned for since the war ended.

But it looks as if Kim has backed down, at least for now.


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Click to expand...

I'm not so sure. It could be it was never scheduled for this day, or even a technical glitch causing a delay...
 
Surmised from observation. As a young comparative psychologist among other 'ists', I was very suspicious of ethologists. Look what they did with three spine sticklebacks will ya. God was discovered by people observing and surmising. Easter is tomorrow if one needs proof how well that combination works. Even sounds a bit like Plato. Why not throw in 'self evident'. :boom:
 
whichphilosophy said:
I would not rule out China invading.
Click to expand...

wp,

I've been thinking more about this. At the end of the day, the Chinese and Koreans (North and South) are all of the same blood. The Americans are foreigners.

Long term, the peninsular will return to base, and Yanks go home.

All well.

A.
 
Philos said:
whichphilosophy said:
I would not rule out China invading.
Click to expand...

wp,

I've been thinking more about this. At the end of the day, the Chinese and Koreans (North and South) are all of the same blood. The Americans are foreigners.

Long term, the peninsular will return to base, and Yanks go home.

All well.

A.
Click to expand...

If you were South Korean, would you want the infidel Yanks to go home?
 
Horatio Parker said:
Philos said:
Hi,

I'm not taking sides on this one, but am interested in the tactical options available to the North Koreans. If they have a missile capable nuke, then that is obviously the option. However, what if they don't? We know that they have nuclear bombs.

Seoul and the highest populated areas of South Korea are near to the border. This invites:

1. A ground invasion of South Korea.

2. A ground invasion of South Korea and planting (defended) nuclear bombs in the areas of high population as an insurance policy against a US nuclear strike on the homeland.

3. If an invasion isn't successful, then placing nuclear bombs along the border and use them as a defensive minefield.

4. Placing nuclear bombs on submarines and take them into harbours on the coast of South Korea in kamikaze attacks.

These are just some of many possibilities, but the Beeb news reports today that NK is in a state of readiness for immediate war. No doubt they have strategies in play that have been prepared and practised many times over the years.

What of China? All indicators are that China does not want war. However, a ravaged NK with US ground troops on their Southern border should pose an unacceptable military outcome for them. An early option would be to send a naval strike force to NK waters and shadow the US ships one for one. The safest option, internationally, might be a joint strike force with their ally Russia, but this would be difficult to organise on such short notice.

Who knows?

A.
Click to expand...

The most concerning thing is that Seoul, with 25M people, is within artillery range. And NK has a lot of artillery, or so the read.
Click to expand...

Only a percentage of NK artillery is capable of hitting Seoul. Haven't been able to find out what percentage.
From observation of past skirmishes, it is thought that at least 15% of NK artillery rounds will be duds.
The guidance systems are questionable. Training is questionable. This is important because when they hit Seoul, hitting the utilities is much more effective than just lobbing shells at buildings.
Morale of the NK Army could also provide an advantage. Cutting off the head of the snake, should the opportunity present itself, might provide further advantage on this front.
For artillery pieces that are camouflaged, they know once they start shooting, they are a target.
 
Even if the NKs are using obsolete sighting, it's not as if infrastructure is camouflaged and mobile. They've had decades to sight it.

What I wonder is if there are any really true believers in the NK high command. The elite must have a good idea idea of what's going on. Are any of them really crazy enough to attack SK?
 
untermensche said:
Exactly by what authority does the US get to tell other nations what they can test?
Click to expand...

You know why? Because we've got the bomb, that's why.
Two words:
Nuclear.
Fucking.
Weapons.
OK?
Russia, Germany, Romania, they can have all the democracy they want;
They can have a big democracy cake walk, right through the middle of Tienanmen square;
And it won't make a lick of difference, because we've got the bomb, OK?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrgpZ0fUixs[/youtube]
 
bilby said:
You know why? Because we've got the bomb, that's why.
Two words:
Nuclear.
Fucking.
Weapons.
OK?
Russia, Germany, Romania, they can have all the democracy they want;
They can have a big democracy cake walk, right through the middle of Tienanmen square;
And it won't make a lick of difference, because we've got the bomb, OK?
Click to expand...
are you quoting a movie or a classified briefing?
This sounds really, really familiar and I can't quite tell if i heard this from an actor on the late show or an admiral at the opening of SWS Week...

Could be both, i guess, that would explain a lot.
 
Keith&Co. said:
bilby said:
You know why? Because we've got the bomb, that's why.
Two words:
Nuclear.
Fucking.
Weapons.
OK?
Russia, Germany, Romania, they can have all the democracy they want;
They can have a big democracy cake walk, right through the middle of Tienanmen square;
And it won't make a lick of difference, because we've got the bomb, OK?
Click to expand...
are you quoting a movie or a classified briefing?
This sounds really, really familiar and I can't quite tell if i heard this from an actor on the late show or an admiral at the opening of SWS Week...

Could be both, i guess, that would explain a lot.
Click to expand...

I believe it's an extract from the minutes of the last meeting of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
 
bilby said:
Keith&Co. said:
are you quoting a movie or a classified briefing?
This sounds really, really familiar and I can't quite tell if i heard this from an actor on the late show or an admiral at the opening of SWS Week...

Could be both, i guess, that would explain a lot.
Click to expand...

I believe it's an extract from the minutes of the last meeting of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Click to expand...
only if they redacted 90% of the 'fuck' words and all the 'cunt' references...
 
TV and credit cards said:
Horatio Parker said:
The most concerning thing is that Seoul, with 25M people, is within artillery range. And NK has a lot of artillery, or so the read.
Click to expand...

Only a percentage of NK artillery is capable of hitting Seoul. Haven't been able to find out what percentage.
From observation of past skirmishes, it is thought that at least 15% of NK artillery rounds will be duds.
The guidance systems are questionable. Training is questionable. This is important because when they hit Seoul, hitting the utilities is much more effective than just lobbing shells at buildings.
Morale of the NK Army could also provide an advantage. Cutting off the head of the snake, should the opportunity present itself, might provide further advantage on this front.
For artillery pieces that are camouflaged, they know once they start shooting, they are a target.
Click to expand...

Artillery doesn't have guidance as such, and training isn't terribly relevant when your target is a city. The idea is a saturation bombardment, and even with a 30% hit-rate the humanitarian cost in a city like Seoul would be devastating.

Also, it looks like a launch was attempted but turned out to be a dud. https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBzSwR9?m=en-us
 
braces_for_impact said:
Any large scale invasion, whether from North to South, South to North, China over the border, etc. I would think would be easily noticeable by satellite imagery. Thus it would be difficult to keep such an action a surprise to all the parties involved. Much more likely most damage would come from artillery and missile fire. Since NK has no nukes on missiles yet, they would have to use them defensively, or fly a large and heavy bomber out to the target. Using them defensively is problematic. How quickly can they set up a defensive nuke and deploy it to the desired location? Even using a nuke defensively would make an already shit country even worse off to be in, and would have awful effects on SK and the surrounding area. Unfortunately, a NK bomber making it through the fog of war to get even somewhat close to a SK target seems pretty likely to me. We should have command of the skies pretty quickly, and the seas too I would imagine, so the question seems to me is how much damage could be done n the area by the NK before control is seized by us and our allies. I think the predominant damage here would be via NK artillery on Seoul.

I wonder what the human side of all this is? Kim Jong rules as a tyrant, and I wonder once the shit really, truly hits the fan, how many of those generals will stick with him? I know the regular populace by and large is affected by his Cult of Personality (although there seems to be less of that than with his father or grandfather) but I wonder how well his military would hold together?
Click to expand...

We would have a hard time seeing NK troops moving to invasion position through their tunnels.
 
TV and credit cards said:
Horatio Parker said:
The most concerning thing is that Seoul, with 25M people, is within artillery range. And NK has a lot of artillery, or so the read.
Click to expand...

Only a percentage of NK artillery is capable of hitting Seoul. Haven't been able to find out what percentage.
From observation of past skirmishes, it is thought that at least 15% of NK artillery rounds will be duds.
The guidance systems are questionable. Training is questionable. This is important because when they hit Seoul, hitting the utilities is much more effective than just lobbing shells at buildings.
Morale of the NK Army could also provide an advantage. Cutting off the head of the snake, should the opportunity present itself, might provide further advantage on this front.
For artillery pieces that are camouflaged, they know once they start shooting, they are a target.
Click to expand...

Lobbing artillery into Seoul wouldn't be for military reasons. It would be for political ones--the objective being to cause so many casualties the SK government would give in. Thus an inability to hit pinpoint targets wouldn't matter--the whole city is the target.
 
TV and credit cards said:
Only a percentage of NK artillery is capable of hitting Seoul. Haven't been able to find out what percentage.
From observation of past skirmishes, it is thought that at least 15% of NK artillery rounds will be duds.
The guidance systems are questionable. Training is questionable. This is important because when they hit Seoul, hitting the utilities is much more effective than just lobbing shells at buildings.
Morale of the NK Army could also provide an advantage. Cutting off the head of the snake, should the opportunity present itself, might provide further advantage on this front.
For artillery pieces that are camouflaged, they know once they start shooting, they are a target.
Click to expand...

The guy I was taking about before projected a million dead South Koreans in the first 24 hours. NK's army may be a soviet relic but it's no fucking joke by virtue of numbers and close proximity. I read a scholarly analysis of this a few years ago that basically said they lost parity after the Soviet support dried up, but still present a serious threat to the South and even have a puncher's chance of pulling off a surprise land invasion.

I've made the drive from Seoul to the DMZ before. It isn't the kind of buffer you want between you and an enemy that's been technically at war with you since the 50s and has been preparing nonstop to finish it. If a shooting war does break out nobody is getting out of it unscathed.

I'm still optimistic nothing will actually happen, but a lot less than I'd be if we had competent leadership in Washington.
 
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