Trump 2024?

[Jimmy Higgins]

As noted, Trump was never invited to the party in the first place. Showing him his hat means nothing, unless the MAGA base shifts to someone else... unless the GOP changes the primary system setup... but with too many candidates, it gets harder to fix primaries. In fact, they did make shifts in 2016 to prevent what happened in 2012 where a notable base of voters tried to get a non-establishment candidate nominated (and Newt Gingrich... and Rick Santorum... no, the GOP base isn't that bright)... and then quite ironically (actual irony), the new "fixed" setup got the anti-establishment candidate selected.

 

[Elixir]

Let them cleave unto the orange shitmonger. I recall this bit:

From Jon Cryer:

“All the stuff Biden should do because Republicans were fine with it when Trump did it.

* Ignore Senate oversight by appointing “acting” members of his cabinet. Ignore subpoenas. Executive orders for everything!!

* Appoint Hunter Biden as White House advisor, give him security clearance he doesn’t deserve, then put him in charge of coronavirus and peace in the Middle East.

* Berate, belittle and insult the Republican leaders and their constituents at every opportunity. And take joy in their unhappiness.

* Have foreign countries, companies and lobbyists pay Biden business entities while he makes decisions affecting them.

* Golf, golf, golf! At Biden-owned resorts, thus, forcing taxpayers to put money directly in his pockets.

* Increase the national debt by 36 percent. Increase the federal budget deficit by 4 trillion dollars.

* Float federal pardons to induce federal employees to break the law. Float federal pardons to induce co-conspirators to clam up.

*Publicly threaten congressional witnesses. Extort a foreign country into fabricating a smear against his Republican opponent.

* Vastly over-finance his inauguration, and then have millions of the money just “disappear.”

* Publicly ask a foreign adversary to commit crimes to help his campaign. Lie to a special prosecutor about it. Obstruct justice five times about it. Lie about the special prosecutor’s report about it.

* Objectively and verifiably lie at least 120 times a week. Have government employees illegally campaign on his behalf on a daily basis.

And I won’t even get into how Republican leaders have been fine with the worst horrors of the Trump presidency. The family separations, the increase in civilian drone deaths, the hundreds of thousands of Americans dead from Covid. They were okay with all of it.

So, anytime they raise an objection to anything, the Biden administration should just ignore what they say and shout “Trump!” in their face. Cause, really, they can shut the fuck up.
Just like they did when Trump was president.”

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Meanwhile, John Bolton is saying he intends to run against Trump if Trump runs for president in 2024. Bolton hates Trump's rejection of the Constitution as law of the land.

 

[ZiprHead]

John Bolton

A mustache on a bag of soft stinky cheese.

 

[Elixir]

John Bolton

A mustache on a bag of soft stinky cheese.

...has MY vote (against Trump, that is.)
Yeah, he'd probably blow us all up. Still better than Trump.

 

[marc]

My expectations..

Trump will run in 2024. Big question is are there any republicans with any spine to run against him? Bolton might do it, but won't win. He will just do his best to bring Trump down. If there are primaries with viable candidates then it will be a vicious fight (popcorn time!) since Trump needs to win to try and escape the courts. If he looses the nomination, or doesn't run at all, you can bet whoever the candidate is will be hit up to give Trump pardons. Heck, Trump, MTG, and others will likely make promises of pardons part of their endorsement deals.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

My expectations..

Trump will run in 2024. Big question is are there any republicans with any spine to run against him?

If Georgia is an indicator, maybe not. Walker was always a very weak candidate at best, and no one dared run against him with Trump's blessing. However, political opportunities are fleeting. DeSantis wants to run. Nicki Halley can't wait much longer before being forgotten she was ever a governor.

I think the real question is, what does the MAGA base do.

Bolton might do it, but won't win.

Bolton wouldn't make it past 2023 in the campaign. Who would financially back that Neocon walrus? Him running in actual primaries seems just slightly more likely than me finding backing to run for President.

 

[Derec]

Trump may run, but he will not win the nomination.
- the shine is off. Especially after his candidates' performance in 2022.
- If RdS runs (likely), he will play in Trump's lane, and take away support from him.
- Trump is 8 years older than in 2016, and he is not exactly the fittest 76 year old out there as is. US campaigns are long - primary campaigns will get going by Summer and first primaries aren't until February. If things go long, it will be a year of full-steam primary campaigning. Can he keep it up? I doubt it.

 

[AdamWho]

Trump needs to cut his losses and start thinking of ways to keep his kids out of jail.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Trump needs to cut his losses and start thinking of ways to keep his kids out of jail.

Doesn’t that presume he cares about his kids?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump may run, but he will not win the nomination.
- the shine is off. Especially after his candidates' performance in 2022.

Is the shine off? 2020 and 2018 didn't do it, why 2022? The right wing base has been losing easy Senate seats for a while now. People keep talking convention. Should have learned by now that Trump defies all known political convention.

- If RdS runs (likely), he will play in Trump's lane, and take away support from him.

This is unknown. DeSantis is an unknown quantity with the alt-right goons and the Q-Anon goons. Certainly, they owe no allegiance to Trump, but that doesn't mean they'll swoon to DeSantis. Though he is making a play for them with his "vaccine" bullshit.

- Trump is 8 years older than in 2016, and he is not exactly the fittest 76 year old out there as is. US campaigns are long - primary campaigns will get going by Summer and first primaries aren't until February. If things go long, it will be a year of full-steam primary campaigning. Can he keep it up? I doubt it.

As long as there is Adderall. Trump loves being applauded. Granted, the crowds were getting smaller. Which might be why he started doing this stuff at Airports so he didn't need to worry about empty seats.

The GOP is "done" with Trump, the right-wing media is "done" with Trump. All that matters, however, is how the base feels. The same base that put Trump into the nomination despite the GOP trying to prevent that.

The base is irrational, chaotic, politically ignorant... making predicting what they do or choose to support nearly impossible. Certainly, no one in the GOP will take Trump lightly. Trump was too stupid, too inexperienced, too out of his league in 2016... and he won. None of that has changed. If anything, more Republicans believe the election was stolen in 2016 than they did 2 years ago. The virus has spread.

 

[Elixir]

If Trump doesn’t show up on a ballot, some MAGAts will write him in, some will stay home and some will start breaking things.
And Republicans will lose.
If Trump is on the ballot, it’s a bit more straightforward;
Republicans will lose.

The destruction of the Party of Lincoln will go down as Cheato’s greatest achievement.

 

[ZiprHead]

If Trump doesn’t show up on a ballot, some MAGAts will write him in, some will stay home and some will start breaking things.
And Republicans will lose.
If Trump is on the ballot, it’s a bit more straightforward;
Republicans will lose.

The destruction of the Party of Lincoln will go down as Cheato’s greatest achievement.

Couldn't happen to a better party, as they say.

 

[Elixir]

If Trump doesn’t show up on a ballot, some MAGAts will write him in, some will stay home and some will start breaking things.
And Republicans will lose.
If Trump is on the ballot, it’s a bit more straightforward;
Republicans will lose.

The destruction of the Party of Lincoln will go down as Cheato’s greatest achievement.

Couldn't happen to a better party, as they say.

I agree, as long as the Country survives.

 

[AdamWho]

The greatest gift the Republicans can get for Christmas is a bunch of indictments for Trump, his enablers, and congressional members who supported Jan 6. It will be painful, to cut out this cancer but it is the only way forward... and of course, they won't do it.

The country will survive the downfall of Trump and the Republican party. "Trump Land" can only do damage to themselves and pose no major threat to the larger country.

 

[lpetrich]

•  2024 United States presidential election
•  2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• Why the 2024 Race Is Eerily Quiet - POLITICO - 12/13/2022 - "The 2024 presidential campaigns of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are riddled with uncertainties. That means other presidential hopefuls are lying low — for now."
• Presidential candidates, 2024 - Ballotpedia
• Daily Brew: December 22, 2022 - Ballotpedia - "Here’s the timeline of presidential campaign announcements from 2020 and 2016"

Most candidacy announcements were made in the first half of the year before, though there were some stragglers that announced over the second half of that year. The two parties are not much different in their candidates' announcement timings.

Just under a month since Donald Trump announced his third consecutive White House bid, some of his loudest advocates are nowhere to be found. ...

... That’s in part because, after the midterms, Trump has the whiff of a loser and Biden is riding high.

...
Trump is confronting the grimmest of eventualities — indictment. That could derail his candidacy, whether because of the charges themselves or merely because they tank his standing in the polls and he uses prosecution to claim persecution and saves face by bowing out to avoid defeat.

If polls are any guide, Trump now has competition: Florida governor Ron DeSantis. Over the first half of the previous year, his support grew to about 50% more than that of ex-VP Mike Pence, then stayed there for the rest of the year. Then this year, his support steadily rose to that of Donald Trump.

Mike Pence declined from 15% to 10% over this time, while Nikki Haley and Ted Cruz both held steady at 5%.

So if RDS's support holds steady, then expect to see a Trump-DeSantis contest in the primaries.

If Trump drops out or is found guilty of various crimes, then that leaves RDS as the front runner, beating the second one, Mike Pence, and the two of them beating the rest.

Curiously, the Politico article I linked to makes no mention of RDS.

 

[Elixir]

If Trump drops out or is found guilty of various crimes

There is ZERO chance that Cheato will be found guilty by 11/24. Anyone who thinks otherwise has not been paying attention.
Trump's game is such that it took over 6 months of him screwing over the FBI before they got a search warrant, and another 3 months to get permission for the DOJ to even LOOK at the materials they seized.
We'll be lucky if there's so much as an arraignment by election day, even if an indictment comes down today.

 

[Copernicus]

If Trump drops out or is found guilty of various crimes

There is ZERO chance that Cheato will be found guilty by 11/24. Anyone who thinks otherwise has not been paying attention.
Trump's game is such that it took over 6 months of him screwing over the FBI before they got a search warrant, and another 3 months to get permission for the DOJ to even LOOK at the materials they seized.
We'll be lucky if there's so much as an arraignment by election day, even if an indictment comes down today.

Maybe so, but it is going to be difficult for the DoJ to ignore specific criminal referrals from the House Jan. 6 committee. Their 800-page report was released, and they propose four separate criminal acts that they thought Trump could be prosecuted for:

1. Obstruction of an official proceeding.
2. Conspiracy to defraud the United States.
3. Conspiracy to make false statements.
4. Inciting or aiding an insurrection.

Even an indictment on any of those charges would likely end any practical possibility that Donald Trump could stand for office again. He would simply be too preoccupied with his legal defense to mount a presidential campaign, and there are not enough rich Republican-befuddled billionaires out there to be foolish enough to help fund such a campaign. I doubt that he has any serious intention of ever running again, but even the 2020 elections demonstrated that Trump fatigue has finally begun to sink in and spread among Republicans. The crazies among Republicans are really in a process to vet several candidates to continue promoting the so-called Trump agenda, chief among them being Ron DeSantis. Right now, he is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, not Donald Trump.

 

[laughing dog]

I hope that in 2024, Mr. Trump is sitting in Mar-A-Lago watching the election returns after allocuting to his conspiracy to commit sedition, defraud the US and various other crimes in order to avoid prison. The allocution included his sworn statement that he knew and knows there was no election fraud.

 

[Elixir]

Even an indictment on any of those charges would likely end any practical possibility that Donald Trump could stand for office again. He would simply be too preoccupied with his legal defense to mount a presidential campaign, and there are not enough rich Republican-befuddled billionaires out there to be foolish enough to help fund such a campaign.

Having a hard time even imagining his withdrawal speech. He might drag his die-hards down with him all the way. When he loses the Republican primary, he will probably stay in it as an independent, thereby signing the GQP’s death certificate. Maybe I’m guilty of wishful thinking, but I don’t believe there’s any way Trump can stop pretending he won in 2020 without punching his own ticket to jail, and maintaining the act may mean having to stay in the Presidential race no matter what.

I doubt that he has any serious intention of ever running again, but even the 2020 elections demonstrated that Trump fatigue has finally begun to sink in and spread among Republicans.

“Turncoats every one of them! Vote for me, and I’ll give you your country back!”

Could be his only viable stance at the end of this debacle. I just can’t see the

“I am under so much unfair treatment that I have to pull out of this race even though everyone knows I already won it…” speech.