Trump Approval ~40% - And post Trump America

[ronburgundy]

So, a pair of polls have been released, indicating that Trump has an approval rating of around 40%, which is much much much lower than any President first upon taking office since well, the polls were taken. This leads to a couple of reflections.

Firstly, one may say the polls are wrong, after all the polls were wrong about the election. Actually, the polls for the national vote (oddly enough) seemed the closest.

The polls were not wrong on election day. Various models attempting to predict electoral college results were wrong, but most of the polls in the week leading up to the election were rather close accurate in predicting the final popular vote. Hillary won by 2.1% and the average of the polls tracked by Real Clear Politics was Hillary by 3.3%.

IF anything, 40% seems too high, given that only 25% of US adults voted for him.

Second, where the fuck were these people on election day?!

They were busy tweeting about not wanting to vote for "the lesser of two evils", planning their next BLM protest, or trying to get University Professors fired for not blindly supporting authoritarian bans on "offensive" Halloween costumes.

 

[whichphilosophy]

The polls were not wrong on election day. Various models attempting to predict electoral college results were wrong, but most of the polls in the week leading up to the election were rather close accurate in predicting the final popular vote. Hillary won by 2.1% and the average of the polls tracked by Real Clear Politics was Hillary by 3.3%.

IF anything, 40% seems too high, given that only 25% of US adults voted for him.

Second, where the fuck were these people on election day?!

They were busy tweeting about not wanting to vote for "the lesser of two evils", planning their next BLM protest, or trying to get University Professors fired for not blindly supporting authoritarian bans on "offensive" Halloween costumes.

Does that mean he had a lot of minor votes if only 25% of adults voted for him.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

40%. The Tories in England won the election on just under 40%. I suppose in that sense it's not so bad.
I think Trump just wooed Teresa May over Brexit, Good news for here because she hadn't done anything on it.

You ain't know nuthin' about numbas, do ya?

No President in the last 50 yrs has approached such low numbers.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

The polls were not wrong on election day. Various models attempting to predict electoral college results were wrong, but most of the polls in the week leading up to the election were rather close accurate in predicting the final popular vote. Hillary won by 2.1% and the average of the polls tracked by Real Clear Politics was Hillary by 3.3%.

IF anything, 40% seems too high, given that only 25% of US adults voted for him.



They were busy tweeting about not wanting to vote for "the lesser of two evils", planning their next BLM protest, or trying to get University Professors fired for not blindly supporting authoritarian bans on "offensive" Halloween costumes.

Does that mean he had a lot of minor votes if only 25% of adults voted for him.

No, it means a large percentage of adults didn't vote. Try to keep up.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Second, where the fuck were these people on election day?!

Busy not voting for Hillary Clinton.

Remember, that's who Democrats chose to run against him and stuff.

Far more democrats voted than republicans.

 

[Elixir]

No President in the last 50 yrs has approached such ...

Another YUUUGE record for teh Donald! He is tremendously great.

 

[SimpleDon]

So, a pair of polls have been released, indicating that Trump has an approval rating of around 40%, which is much much much lower than any President first upon taking office since well, the polls were taken. This leads to a couple of reflections.

Firstly, one may say the polls are wrong, after all the polls were wrong about the election. Actually, the polls for the national vote (oddly enough) seemed the closest. So even including a 5 pt bump, Trump is the least liked President ever elected.

Second, where the fuck were these people on election day?! Granted, maybe his polling numbers look better if you assign weight to the respondents based on what state they live in. So while his total popular support is 40% (and what the fuck is wrong with this 40% of America), his Electoral College support level is 50%. Which is still historically low.
So, how is Trump taking it?

Not too well.


Now, a couple things. Firstly, just get ready for Trump to say that anything he doesn't like is a lie or rigged or fake news. 2018 budget deficit is $650 billion, "fake news". Russia annexed Ukraine, "propaganda". ISIS is still around in 2019, "lie". If Trump can't handle two things, they are 1) disrespect and 2) anything that remotely reflects on him badly. Remember, this is the guy who called into radio programs and talked about himself under an alias, gloating about how great he was (yeah, that guy is going to be President).

Secondly, it appears Trump is so sociopathic that he believes he is above being scrutinized. We are so worried about what this asshat is going to do as President, that some are overlooking that this guy thinks he may be quite above the law (which he already thought he was prior to being President). Who can put this guy's feet to the fire if he thinks any attempt at controlling him is wrong?

None of this is real news. As to who is going to put hold him accountable? Presumably, Congress or the courts, depending on the particulars. Maybe he will cross the line and get impeached. My guess is that if he does cross the line, given that Pence would take over, that a significant segment of the GOP in Congress would go along with it.

Trump has already had more scandals before he is sworn in than Obama had in eight years.

He is rhetorically ripping one of my Congressmen, John Lewis, for declaring Trump's presidency to be illegitimate, this from a man whose only previous venture into the political sphere was to question the legitimacy of the Obama presidency for four years, incorrectly as he now admits.

I think that the odds on him being impeached are only about 20%. He is more likely to resign rather than chance impeachment. I think that what he wanted to do is to win the election. I don't think that he will enjoy being the President as much, he doesn't have the temperament for it.

 

[marc]

Trump has already had more scandals before he is sworn in than Obama had in eight years.

No kidding. That nickname "No Drama Obama" was very accurate. Even among Democratic presidents, there doesn't seem to be much to get outraged about

I think that the odds on him being impeached are only about 20%. He is more likely to resign rather than chance impeachment. I think that what he wanted to do is to win the election. I don't think that he will enjoy being the President as much, he doesn't have the temperament for it.

I would agree. I can't see a Republican Congress impeaching a Republican president unless it was for something incredibly extreme. Considering what they are fine with so far, I can't imagine what that could be.

What I do see is Trump resigning for several reasons:
1. Having to do actual work, and not just grandstanding. He can put a lot off onto Pence, but there will be things he has to do himself, like try to show sympathy for fallen soldiers, dealing with natural disasters, and other things where he has to make an appearance without aggrandizing himself.

2. He wont be able to put up with all the criticism. He can't even handle SNL mocking him. When everyone starts getting on him about the terrible job he is doing, he will just have a melt down.

3. Once he grabs what money he can, and pays back debtors with political favors, he will likely pull a Palin, and resign so he can do something else that will make him more money.

 

[RavenSky]

No kidding. That nickname "No Drama Obama" was very accurate. Even among Democratic presidents, there doesn't seem to be much to get outraged about

I think that the odds on him being impeached are only about 20%. He is more likely to resign rather than chance impeachment. I think that what he wanted to do is to win the election. I don't think that he will enjoy being the President as much, he doesn't have the temperament for it.

I would agree. I can't see a Republican Congress impeaching a Republican president unless it was for something incredibly extreme. Considering what they are fine with so far, I can't imagine what that could be.

What I do see is Trump resigning for several reasons:
1. Having to do actual work, and not just grandstanding. He can put a lot off onto Pence, but there will be things he has to do himself, like try to show sympathy for fallen soldiers, dealing with natural disasters, and other things where he has to make an appearance without aggrandizing himself.

2. He wont be able to put up with all the criticism. He can't even handle SNL mocking him. When everyone starts getting on him about the terrible job he is doing, he will just have a melt down.

3. Once he grabs what money he can, and pays back debtors with political favors, he will likely pull a Palin, and resign so he can do something else that will make him more money.

If he resigns, he won't get the $450,000 for life, will he? I think he will try to stick it out for the 4 years, then not run again.

 

[ElectEngr]

There is always the first paragraph of section 4 ot the 25th Amendment.

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Long Shot but still...

Later,
ElectEngr

 

[ronburgundy]

Does that mean he had a lot of minor votes if only 25% of adults voted for him.

No, it means a large percentage of adults didn't vote. Try to keep up.

Yeah, that.

 

[whichphilosophy]

No, it means a large percentage of adults didn't vote. Try to keep up.

Yeah, that.

Does this make the election results invalid?

- - - Updated - - -

Does that mean he had a lot of minor votes if only 25% of adults voted for him.

No, it means a large percentage of adults didn't vote. Try to keep up.

It's the way it was put.

 

[ronburgundy]

If he resigns, he won't get the $450,000 for life, will he? I think he will try to stick it out for the 4 years, then not run again.

Actually, former presidents currently "only" get about $190,000 per year, for life. Still too much though. Their salary while President is $400,000 and should only be about $100,000k. Being president shouldn't make you a millionaire, and given all expenses are paid for the whole family, that means they currently walk out of an 8 year term with $3.2 million before taxes, getting another $1 million pre-tax every 5 years just for existing.

 

[KeepTalking]

There is always the first paragraph of section 4 ot the 25th Amendment.

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Long Shot but still...

Later,
ElectEngr

But then Pence would be President, and that outcome may be worse than a Trump presidency.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If he resigns, he won't get the $450,000 for life, will he? I think he will try to stick it out for the 4 years, then not run again.

Actually, former presidents currently "only" get about $190,000 per year, for life. Still too much though. Their salary while President is $400,000 and should only be about $100,000k. Being president shouldn't make you a millionaire, and given all expenses are paid for the whole family, that means they currently walk out of an 8 year term with $3.2 million before taxes, getting another $1 million pre-tax every 5 years just for existing.

It is a 24/7 job.

 

[ronburgundy]

Yeah, that.

Does this make the election results invalid?

It makes Trump a president that was not supported by 75% of the adult population he is governing, with polls showing that a majority strongly oppose him. It means that opposing the actions of his administration by all legal means is wholly supportive of democratic principles, and the notion that people should now support him because he's president is purely authoritarian and undemocratic.

Does that mean he had a lot of minor votes if only 25% of adults voted for him.

No, it means a large percentage of adults didn't vote. Try to keep up.

It's the way it was put.

It was put in an objectively accurate way.

 

[whichphilosophy]

Does this make the election results invalid?

It makes Trump a president that was not supported by 75% of the adult population he is governing, with polls showing that a majority strongly oppose him. It means that opposing the actions of his administration by all legal means is wholly supportive of democratic principles, and the notion that people should now support him because he's president is purely authoritarian and undemocratic.

Does that mean he had a lot of minor votes if only 25% of adults voted for him.

No, it means a large percentage of adults didn't vote. Try to keep up.

It's the way it was put.

It was put in an objectively accurate way.

It's not clear how (all of?) those who didn't vote automatically oppose Trump. If they were that concerned they would have come out and voted for Hilary. However she was also not that well liked or trusted either.

 

[Sarpedon]

Actually NOT all expenses are paid. Travel, Food and Housing are paid for, because both are part of the security arrangements. However, Presidents must pay for clothing and other expenses. Considering the social events they go to, this can be quite expensive. Take a look at Michelle's array of fantastic dresses.

 

[ronburgundy]

Actually, former presidents currently "only" get about $190,000 per year, for life. Still too much though. Their salary while President is $400,000 and should only be about $100,000k. Being president shouldn't make you a millionaire, and given all expenses are paid for the whole family, that means they currently walk out of an 8 year term with $3.2 million before taxes, getting another $1 million pre-tax every 5 years just for existing.

It is a 24/7 job.

No it isn't. It means technically being on call 24/7, like many other jobs, including tech support. But the president works a lot fewer hours than many Americans who make much less. Obama has said that almost every night he eats dinner and spends time with his kids, reads, gets almost 8 hours sleep, and works out for an hour every morning. Presidents typically take far more vacation time than the vast majority of Americans. Plus, all the they time they spend campaigning and trying to get re-elected doesn't count as part of the job.

It is a stressful job to be sure, but so is being a cop and we pay them about $30k per year.

I can see justifying even up near $200k, but not $400k, especially when you consider that all housing and other expenses are covered.
Is it a good thing for democracy if the president is in the top 1%? Is it a bad thing if being president was made unappealing to those already in the top 1%, especially those so greedy that a slight temporary reduction in income was unacceptable?

 

[ronburgundy]

It makes Trump a president that was not supported by 75% of the adult population he is governing, with polls showing that a majority strongly oppose him. It means that opposing the actions of his administration by all legal means is wholly supportive of democratic principles, and the notion that people should now support him because he's president is purely authoritarian and undemocratic.

Does that mean he had a lot of minor votes if only 25% of adults voted for him.

No, it means a large percentage of adults didn't vote. Try to keep up.

It's the way it was put.

It was put in an objectively accurate way.

It's not clear how (all of?) those who didn't vote automatically oppose Trump. If they were that concerned they would have come out and voted for Hilary. However she was also not that well liked or trusted either.

I never implied that all who didn't vote oppose Trump. I said they didn't support him in the election. The polls do show that a majority of those who didn't vote oppose him, with another portion being neutral.

Yes, Hillary was also not that well liked, although she was supported by 3 million more US adults than Trump was.
But even among the non-voters who didn't like her, a large % disliked Trump even more. Unfortunately they were too stupid to understand how democracy works and failed to realize that it often doesn't and shouldn't result in your ideal candidate winning and that the "lesser of two evils" is exactly what you will get in a fair and democratic system, unless the majority of people happen to share your exact world view. Understanding this leads sensible people to make their compromise with whatever candidate is left than will prevent the most evil one from winning, because if the most evil one wins then they will make it so that the odds are even lower that a candidate your don't think is evil at all will ever win.