Trump Leading in the polls – why is this important?

[Blahface]

Sure, he is leading in the polls, but he only has 15%. Eighty-five percent of the Republicans polled choose someone else. We'll have to wait until other candidates inevitably drop out before we know whether or not he is viable.

Cenk Uygur seems to think this is a big deal and thinks it says something about the Republican electorate. It only tells us about 15% of the electorate and it is nothing we already didn't know.

 

[laughing dog]

I agree with your view on this.

 

[Ford]

We'll have to wait until other candidates inevitably drop out before we know whether or not he is viable.

Oh I don't think we'll have to wait that long. I've got a funny feeling that once "The Donald" realizes the level of financial disclosure staying in the race requires, he'll find some excuse to loudly bow out of the contest.

 

[Bronzeage]

We'll have to wait until other candidates inevitably drop out before we know whether or not he is viable.

Oh I don't think we'll have to wait that long. I've got a funny feeling that once "The Donald" realizes the level of financial disclosure staying in the race requires, he'll find some excuse to loudly bow out of the contest.

Trump's candidacy has all the viability of Snoopy or Pat Paulsen. It's nothing more than a publicity ploy and never has been more. Trump will remain a candidate until he actually has to do something, such as pay for campaign ads. Until then, it's a free ride.

 

[Blahface]

We'll have to wait until other candidates inevitably drop out before we know whether or not he is viable.

Oh I don't think we'll have to wait that long. I've got a funny feeling that once "The Donald" realizes the level of financial disclosure staying in the race requires, he'll find some excuse to loudly bow out of the contest.

Maybe, but he has already lost a good deal from running. What is the effect called when you continue going in a downward spiral to achieve a goal because you already sacrificed so much for it?

 

[beero1000]

Oh I don't think we'll have to wait that long. I've got a funny feeling that once "The Donald" realizes the level of financial disclosure staying in the race requires, he'll find some excuse to loudly bow out of the contest.

Maybe, but he has already lost a good deal from running. What is the effect called when you continue going in a downward spiral to achieve a goal because you already sacrificed so much for it?

Sunk cost fallacy.

 

[Bronzeage]

Oh I don't think we'll have to wait that long. I've got a funny feeling that once "The Donald" realizes the level of financial disclosure staying in the race requires, he'll find some excuse to loudly bow out of the contest.

Maybe, but he has already lost a good deal from running. What is the effect called when you continue going in a downward spiral to achieve a goal because you already sacrificed so much for it?

This depends upon your definition of "lost." He could have bought a big box of fireworks with the money. What's the difference. He is entertaining himself, which he thinks is money well spent.

 

[SimpleDon]

It only confirms a feeling that I have had for more than twenty years.

The Republicans don't have any viable candidates for president.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

It only confirms a feeling that I have had for more than twenty years.

The Republicans don't have any viable candidates for president.

I think it has to do with the Southern Strategy. They've catered to and whipped up all the loonies and can no longer see outside the crazy bubble.

 

[boneyard bill]

Sure, he is leading in the polls, but he only has 15%. Eighty-five percent of the Republicans polled choose someone else. We'll have to wait until other candidates inevitably drop out before we know whether or not he is viable.

Cenk Uygur seems to think this is a big deal and thinks it says something about the Republican electorate. It only tells us about 15% of the electorate and it is nothing we already didn't know.

Cenk Uygur is seeing what he wants to see. Trump has generated a ton of publicity, and that's going to help him in the polls, but he's just another "flavor of the month" as they called it in the 2012 GOP primary race. Who hasn't led the field a one time or another so far. Marco Rubio was on top right after Obama's re-election. Then I think it was Paul Ryan. Then Rand Paul. Then Chris Christie. Before Trump got in it was Jeb Bush. Who will be next? I don't know, but I predict that Trump will soon fade. He can't win with 15%, but I doubt very much that even get that much in an early primary election.

What he does have the potential to do, of course, is simply scramble the Republican race in unpredictable ways. He's going to pull more votes from some candidates than from others, but it's not at all clear who will benefit and who will be hurt.

 

[Horatio Parker]

Palin and Huckabee got gigs at Fox, Herman Cain sold books.

Why shouldn't Donald get some cheese?

If he can sell the big contributors, he may be a contenduh.

 

[arkirk]

Palin and Huckabee got gigs at Fox, Herman Cain sold books.

Why shouldn't Donald get some cheese?

If he can sell the big contributors, he may be a contenduh.

The problem is that politics is no joke to people it has the potential to and sometimes does destroy. This jackass is a narcissistic racist...just what we need less of in America, and he has the money to keep his message of racism alive and up front.

 

[Horatio Parker]

Palin and Huckabee got gigs at Fox, Herman Cain sold books.

Why shouldn't Donald get some cheese?

If he can sell the big contributors, he may be a contenduh.

The problem is that politics is no joke to people it has the potential to and sometimes does destroy. This jackass is a narcissistic racist...just what we need less of in America, and he has the money to keep his message of racism alive and up front.

I'd be very surprised if the establishment GOP can't derail Trump, which they'd have to do if he gets serious. But he's not. This whole shitstorm is based on what 18% of Repug voters think. It's an embarrassment, true, but only a momentary one.

 

[Bronzeage]

I'm not sure whether to believe this or not, but there is a rumor that Andy Kaufman has agreed to return from the dead and be Donald Trump's running mate. Although the Trump campaign has told many people that a deal has been made, Kaufman has yet to release a statement.

 

[bilby]

When you have a big field of candidates, nobody needs a lot of support to be ahead of the guy in second place.

Wake me up when someone has more than 40% support.

Until then, this stuff is only news because humans are very bad at understanding statistics.

 

[Bronzeage]

When you have a big field of candidates, nobody needs a lot of support to be ahead of the guy in second place.

Wake me up when someone has more than 40% support.

Until then, this stuff is only news because humans are very bad at understanding statistics.

To be fair, we are better at it than dogs.

Trumps 15% is more significant than it seems. He is in a field with about a dozen career GOP politicians. These are the people who get the label "serious candidates." Those who answer polls know that. They know Donald Trump will flake apart and drop out long before the convention. Picking Trump on a poll today says little about Trump and a lot about the rest of the field.

 

[bilby]

When you have a big field of candidates, nobody needs a lot of support to be ahead of the guy in second place.

Wake me up when someone has more than 40% support.

Until then, this stuff is only news because humans are very bad at understanding statistics.

To be fair, we are better at it than dogs.

Trumps 15% is more significant than it seems. He is in a field with about a dozen career GOP politicians. These are the people who get the label "serious candidates." Those who answer polls know that. They know Donald Trump will flake apart and drop out long before the convention. Picking Trump on a poll today says little about Trump and a lot about the rest of the field.

In that case, all I can say is that I am deeply disappointed in Americans.

Are you all really so serious and boring as to answer truthfully on such polls?

At least fifteen percent of Australians would pick the silliest candidate, just to fuck with the pollster's head.

I just assumed that enough Americans had a sense of humour to render this result totally meaningless, and I would think quite poorly of your countrymen if that isn't the case.

 

[laughing dog]

To be fair, we are better at it than dogs.

Trumps 15% is more significant than it seems. He is in a field with about a dozen career GOP politicians. These are the people who get the label "serious candidates." Those who answer polls know that. They know Donald Trump will flake apart and drop out long before the convention. Picking Trump on a poll today says little about Trump and a lot about the rest of the field.

In that case, all I can say is that I am deeply disappointed in Americans.

Are you all really so serious and boring as to answer truthfully on such polls?

At least fifteen percent of Australians would pick the silliest candidate, just to fuck with the pollster's head.

I just assumed that enough Americans had a sense of humour to render this result totally meaningless, and I would think quite poorly of your countrymen if that isn't the case.

And even if the respondents were serious when they answered the poll, no one knows if they would have the same view next month or next year.

 

[Ford]

I said this on another forum, and this thread looks like a good place for it here...

In a way, I think Trump is kinda the idea Republican candidate. Perhaps not electable, but at the very least he represents the GOP with all the bullshit stripped away.

He's wealthy, believes that makes him a better person, and is unapologetic about that. Unlike other wealthy Republicans, he comes right out and says "hey, I'm rich, I'm better than you, and you should follow me because I'm rich." This is really the message they've been sending for quite some time now...nominating wealthy people like Bush and Romney but Trump doesn't sugar-coat it. Vote for him because he's a billionaire.

His "immigration gaffe" isn't really a gaffe at all. He's simply stating the Republican position in plain English. Illegal immigrants are great for business, and bad for PR.

As far as foreign policy goes, he's a bull in a china shop. Just like the GOP, but he's unapologetic about his desire to simply bomb brown people into submission.

Economically I'm going to take a stab in the dark here and say that Trump is all in favor of giving wealthy people like himself control of the economy. Again, not at odds with the GOP platform...he's just clear about his intentions. "I'm rich, you're not...so put me in charge."

If the country were your daughter, the rest of the GOP field would come to your door, tell you how much they respected her as a person, would promise to bring her home on time and would probably shake your hand and say "thank you sir for giving me the opportunity to date your lovely daughter."

Then they'd take her out, liquor her up and try to take advantage of her.

Trump is that guy who shows up at your door and says "hey, I'm not gonna lie to you, pops...your daughter is hot and I really wanna get in her pants. I'll drop her off in the morning."


The Donald is - at some level - the most honest candidate in the whole GOP field.

 

[untermensche]

When you have a big field of candidates, nobody needs a lot of support to be ahead of the guy in second place.

Wake me up when someone has more than 40% support.

Until then, this stuff is only news because humans are very bad at understanding statistics.

That's not an unreasonable number.

It's about the percentage Romney got in New Hampshire (Republican primary) in 2012 and McCain in 2008. GW (as an incumbent) got about 80% in 2004.

New Hampshire is the place to watch. It reflects the country as a whole far more than Iowa. In the latest New Hampshire poll Trump got 11%.

Republicans, especially primary voters, in Iowa are off the spectrum.