Trump Tops Clinton in New Poll

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-running-neck-neck-poll/story?id=41888479

With about two months left until Election Day, a new national poll shows a tight race between the two major-party nominees.

Donald Trump sits at 45 percent support while Hillary Clinton has 43 percent in a CNN/ORC poll released today.

Clinton has dropped 9 points from the last CNN/ORC poll released Aug. 1. The Democratic presidential candidate held a clear 9 point lead in the August CNN/ORC poll, 52 percent compared to Trump's 43 percent. That lead has now essentially evaporated.

IMO, there's two reasons why the numbers play as they do:
1.

The margin of error is 3 percentage points.

He's not really in the lead necessarily, but it IS close.

2.

The two major candidates are both unliked; 54 percent view Trump unfavorably and 56 percent see Clinton unfavorably.

We've known for a long time that the public doesn't like either of them. All the stories about Trump are part of a short-term news cycle. The long-term feelings about the candidates are the favorability ratings. Things will fluctuate on this cycle and a significant October surprise might effect the outcome.

 

[Derec]

Trump tops Clinton

 

[untermensche]

The election is decided by Electoral College totals, not popular vote.

I thought people knew that.

What is the projected Electoral College count from this pole?

That is all that matters.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

While it is true that national polls don't mean much, other polls are showing Clinton with a good lead when the third party candidates are thrown in.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Ya, Clinton seems to have the electoral college sewn up and she's been investing tens of millions of dollars in a ground game while Trump's been ignoring that. There's not much risk of a Trump Presidency, absent Clinton developing a mild cough or the like and demonstrating her inability to be able to handle the rigors of the office.

The good thing about polls like this is that they help chip away at any feelings of complacency in the Dem camp and they keep working just as hard on the voter drives and such, which can really help in the down ticket races.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Imagine what happens next if Clinton wins the election through the electoral college, and Trump wins the popular vote. When it happens to Democrats, they are too spineless/calm to lash out. When it happens to Republicans they may take it as part of the game. But if it happens to Trump's people? That could be violent.

It really is amazing though that your political system generated these two as your best options. Something needs to change. Get Johnson and Stein in on the debates to get the political will and then get election reform going to end the two party system.

 

[braces_for_impact]

Imagine what happens next if Clinton wins the election through the electoral college, and Trump wins the popular vote. When it happens to Democrats, they are too spineless/calm to lash out. When it happens to Republicans they may take it as part of the game. But if it happens to Trump's people? That could be violent.

It really is amazing though that your political system generated these two as your best options. Something needs to change. Get Johnson and Stein in on the debates to get the political will and then get election reform going to end the two party system.

Neither of those two numbnuts helps the situation at all.

 

[Sarpedon]

What happens to democrats if Clinton wins the electoral college, but not the popular vote? We urge the republicans to concede the loss in good grace, like Al Gore did 16 years ago.

Pretty simple.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The election is decided by Electoral College totals, not popular vote.

I thought people knew that.

What is the projected Electoral College count from this pole?

That is all that matters.

Who wins the White House yes. However, coat tail length is proportional to the margin of victory. And we wanted a very long coat tail.

- - - Updated - - -

What happens to democrats if Clinton wins the electoral college, but not the popular vote? We urge the republicans to concede the loss in good grace, like Al Gore did 16 years ago.

Pretty simple.

Talk about worst case scenario. Based on polling a few weeks ago, it appeared impossible for that to happen, with smaller margin of victories in Texas and Georgia. If Clinton wins by comparable margins in CA and NY, it should be mathematically unlikely for Trump to win the popular vote.

 

[fromderinside]

Who wins the White House yes. However, coat tail length is proportional to the margin of victory. And we wanted a very long coat tail.

- - - Updated - - -

What happens to democrats if Clinton wins the electoral college, but not the popular vote? We urge the republicans to concede the loss in good grace, like Al Gore did 16 years ago.

Pretty simple.

Talk about worst case scenario. Based on polling a few weeks ago, it appeared impossible for that to happen, with smaller margin of victories in Texas and Georgia. If Clinton wins by comparable margins in CA and NY, it should be mathematically unlikely for Trump to win the popular vote.

Just looked at state horse race forecasts. Clinton leads in nine of eleven most populous states.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

A Survey Monkey poll shows Clinton even with Trump in Texas. Survey Monkey is not considered a premium poll source, but still, polling 5000 people in Texas, it shows that Red Texas may very well flip. Gary Johnson may well pull a lot of Never Trump voters away from Trump. It could well be that Johnson becomes the far right's villain this election cycle. Sort of Like Perot's electing Clinton. Makes me laugh.

 

[laughing dog]

From www.startribune.com/six-things-to-know-in-final-campaign-months/392305021 this caught my attention:

Consider this: Seventeen states plus the District of Columbia have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992. That accounts for 242 electoral votes. Meanwhile, 13 states have voted for the Republican nominee in each of those six elections. Add them up, and you get 102 electoral votes. It’s just math.

.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A Survey Monkey poll shows Clinton even with Trump in Texas. Survey Monkey is not considered a premium poll source, but still, polling 5000 people in Texas, it shows that Red Texas may very well flip. Gary Johnson may well pull a lot of Never Trump voters away from Trump. It could well be that Johnson becomes the far right's villain this election cycle. Sort of Like Perot's electing Clinton. Makes me laugh.

Texas is not going to flip. What matters is the winning margin as it reflects on the national popular vote. Right now polls are tightening up because the Republicans who three weeks ago were aghast at some of Trump's comments and said they wouldn't support Trump, have now forgotten about those comments and are supporting Trump.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

A Survey Monkey poll shows Clinton even with Trump in Texas. Survey Monkey is not considered a premium poll source, but still, polling 5000 people in Texas, it shows that Red Texas may very well flip. Gary Johnson may well pull a lot of Never Trump voters away from Trump. It could well be that Johnson becomes the far right's villain this election cycle. Sort of Like Perot's electing Clinton. Makes me laugh.

Texas is not going to flip. What matters is the winning margin as it reflects on the national popular vote. Right now polls are tightening up because the Republicans who three weeks ago were aghast at some of Trump's comments and said they wouldn't support Trump, have now forgotten about those comments and are supporting Trump.

Lots of people ignore politics until the last few months. We are getting to that point now.

It's a problem of people being pro-conservative or pro-liberal. Neither side will switch over things like Hillary's e-mails, or Trump's ugly rhetoric. A post mortem on what really happened after the election is going to be fun. Now it's all about energizing turnout and courting the last few undecideds. If it all turns out to be the ground game that matters, Trump is coming up short. Only 62 days to go.

 

[Jayjay]

Imagine what happens next if Clinton wins the election through the electoral college, and Trump wins the popular vote. When it happens to Democrats, they are too spineless/calm to lash out. When it happens to Republicans they may take it as part of the game. But if it happens to Trump's people? That could be violent.

I'm not too worried: Fivethirtyeight puts the odds of that happening at 1.6%. But if it were to happen, there is only the core Trump team that would be pissed off, I think most moderate republicans who loathed to choose between Clinton and Trump are just going to be relieved it's over.

 

[Elixir]

...there is only the core Trump team that would be pissed off

b-b-b-but they're the ones that gotz the GUNS!

 

[Trausti]

If it all turns out to be the ground game that matters, Trump is coming up short. Only 62 days to go.

I think this idea of ground game being critical is outdated. Years ago, when I was politically active, I was part of the "ground game," e.g., phone calls, neighborhood canvasing, etc. But in the age of twitter, emails, and other social media, the "ground game" looks expensive and irrelevant. Trump is now ahead in some polls but he has spent, what, a third of what Clinton has? With his shoestring campaign Trump is nonetheless able to attract much larger crowds than Clinton. This election will probably upend the traditional convention on what is necessary for a successful campaign.

 

[aeebee50]

It was good hearing Trump was ahead of Hillary. Tomorrow is another day.

 

[untermensche]

It was good hearing Trump was ahead of Hillary. Tomorrow is another day.

There's nothing good about it.

It's a condemnation of the American system and people that these candidates are the choice we have.

 

[Angry Floof]

It was good hearing Trump was ahead of Hillary. Tomorrow is another day.

It's only a good thing to right wing authoritarian followers.