Trump’s bloody nose strategy

[Malintent]

I think I would like to see either the US or Japan shoot down one of NK's test shots.. .and then announce a high level of confidence that NK's nuclear status is irrelevant and if they shoot another, it will just rain down on their own heads.

When it comes down to it, isn't NK just starting to catch up to 1940's US technology (the legendary H-Bomb)? If a 1930-something Hitler threw his 1930's best at a 2018 United States... wouldn't it just be "funny" to watch his little toys get smashed?

Uhm…those ‘legendary H-bombs’ were uranium gun-type fission bomb, not usually called H-bombs. The thermonuclear weapon is what are usually called H-bombs, which is what NK is supposedly very close to having. The US started using solid rocket ICBM’s and H-bombs in the early 1960’s with the Minuteman and Polaris nuclear missiles. I doubt the NK missiles are as archaic as the Minuteman, as they were huge. Never mind that the WWII atomic bombs were literally dumb bombs.

I don’t think anyone has a good grasp on just how powerful the NK warheads could be, or if they are even fully ready. But with estimates of 100 kilotons, they would far exceed the US dropped Little Boy and Fat man being 15 and 20 kilotons..
https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/the-hwasong-15-the-anatomy-of-north-koreas-new-icbm/

After joining the exclusive club of countries that possess staged thermonuclear weapons after this September’s test of a claimed hydrogen bomb with a yield in excess of 100 kilotons, North Korea has, with the KN22, successfully manufactured and flight tested a ballistic missile that few countries would able to produce. If the KN22 (and the KN20) sends a message, it’s that the rest of the world underestimates North Korea’s indigenous knowledge base and capabilities at its own peril.

OK, we should be sure then to not use our 1960's ordinance, but instead use something a bit more modern. So instead of 1930 versus 1960 it will be 1960 versus 2018. I prefer the odds with the latter, anyway.

 

[Cycad]

Historically China always reacted against any foreign interference in neighbouring countries.

Taking into account the substantial amount of US debt owned by China, and the importance of China in world economy, it might be wise to tread very carefully before nuking chinas backyard

One might also consider that the US would probably loose the moral high ground in case of a first strike.

Not to mention a very likely nuclear response of NK towards Japan and-or South Korea. Keeping in mind that its not certain the actual military set up of the US would be able to prevent a counterstrike, one might fear a massive disruption of the world economy. South Korea and Japan being two world economic powerhouses.

IMO the actual noise is most probably sable rattling.

 

[Cycad]

If its not sable rattling and if Trump lost his mind, I can presume he is surrounded by enough competent and rational people to prevent such a scenario.

 

[Elixir]

Sable doesn't rattle:

Sabers (or sabres) rattle:

 

[funinspace]

This Sable could very well rattle

 

[Philos]

Historically China always reacted against any foreign interference in neighbouring countries.

Taking into account the substantial amount of US debt owned by China, and the importance of China in world economy, it might be wise to tread very carefully before nuking chinas backyard

One might also consider that the US would probably loose the moral high ground in case of a first strike.

Not to mention a very likely nuclear response of NK towards Japan and-or South Korea. Keeping in mind that its not certain the actual military set up of the US would be able to prevent a counterstrike, one might fear a massive disruption of the world economy. South Korea and Japan being two world economic powerhouses.

IMO the actual noise is most probably sable rattling.

Cycad,

Good post. Considering that a key NK goal is the reunification of the peninsular, the best strategic goal might be Guam and then Japan. Of course that's a bit rough on the Japs as they already had their 'bloody nose' from the Yankees.

A.

 

[Lugubert]

If its not sable rattling and if Trump lost his mind, I can presume he is surrounded by enough competent and rational people to prevent such a scenario.

https://politiken.dk/striber/wulffmorgenthaler/art6282916/Wulffmorgenthaler-1101

Caption: A smart aide has for quite some time saved the world from an atomic war.

Aide: I am by law required to give you the launching codes, but it's nowhere stated that they can't be hidden in sudoku format.

 

[Cycad]

Sable doesn't rattle
View attachment 14005

Actually they do rattle in Espagna

https://www.medieval-shop.co.uk/sables/5929-sable-pirate-hayreddin-barbarossa.html



Seriously, I woke up this night and for some reason wondered if I wrote sable (Esp) or sabre (Fr - Engl),
But its winter here and too cold to check in the night

And note that a mercury sable not only rattles badly but is Kims favourite car

 

[funinspace]

Folks,

The Trump admin is considering changing the rules of engagement for first use of US nuclear weapons. The so called ‘bloody nose’ strategy calls for the first use of tactical nuclear weapons on the assumption that a nuclear armed enemy will be deterred from responding after such a show of force.

Of course this would break a fundamental understanding of warfare, which is that a first strike changes the status quo ante and it is highly uncertain how events will unfold from that point on.

Can we reasonably deliberate on the effect of this change in policy until it is put into practice in real
time?

https://www.axios.com/the-american-blood-nose-1515451409-55312e2d-1861-48fd-9e92-90f21d16c893.html

A.

I found this article interesting, as it talks about game theory and the 'bloody nose' notion. But first, I think it is important to point out that the purported 'bloody nose strategy' that is being pondered within the El Cheato Administration, is supposedly about a limited military strike, not necessarily a tactical nuclear strike. Anywho, onto the article...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-trump-give-north-korea-a-bloody-nose/

“Ultimately, you’d like to convince the North Koreans that the U.S. would engage in a large war to prevent North Korea from acquiring the capability to launch nuclear attacks against the U.S.,” Powell said.

(Hypothetically, there may be another low-cost way to ratchet up the pressure a little bit: Leak a bloody-nose battle plan to The Wall Street Journal.)

David Kang, the director of the University of Southern California’s Korean Studies Institute, was blunter in his assessment.

“The ‘bloody nose’ option is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard from D.C.,” Kang told me. “North Korea is incredibly consistent: If we hit them, they will hit us back. There is no possible way that they will just accept it.”

The article goes on to point out the events 8 years ago when SK shot up a NK ship in disputed waters as to the potential willingness of NK to respond to a military provocation. NK retaliated a few months later sinking a SK warship.

 

[RavenSky]

If its not sable rattling and if Trump lost his mind, I can presume he is surrounded by enough competent and rational people to prevent such a scenario.

https://politiken.dk/striber/wulffmorgenthaler/art6282916/Wulffmorgenthaler-1101

Caption: A smart aide has for quite some time saved the world from an atomic war.

Aide: I am by law required to give you the launching codes, but it's nowhere stated that they can't be hidden in sudoku format.

Love it!

Unfortunately, Trump would never hire an aide with that much intelligence, and never hire a female aide that didn't look like a Barbie doll.