Trump's Re-election Chances In 2020

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/23/trump-democrats-2020-election-603421

...
The 2020 presidential election is still two and a half years away, but President Donald Trump’s path to a second term is littered with roadblocks, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. Just 36 percent of voters say they would vote for Trump over a generic Democratic candidate in 2020, compared with 44 percent who would pick the Democrat, the poll shows. One in five voters, 20 percent, are undecided.




Trump has trouble on the homefront, too. Despite the conventional wisdom that the president is wildly popular with the GOP base, the poll also shows a desire among a healthy slice of Republicans — though a distinct minority — for a challenger to run against Trump for the nomination.
...
"While nearly four in 10 GOP voters say Donald Trump should face a primary challenge in 2020, no clear challenger has emerged, and Mike Pence’s appeal appears to be declining,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “Today, 64 percent of Republicans say that they would prefer Trump as president, compared to 19 percent who pick Pence. That gap has grown since August 2017, when 58 percent picked Trump and 28 percent picked Pence."

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So Trump starts out in a deep hole. And it probably won't get better as the scandals, law suits and screw ups stack up over the next two years. It is possible that by election time for 2020, even the Republicans will be tired of Trump.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I’d say that the odds of it aren’t as low as a sane analysis of the facts should indicate it would be.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

It entirely depends on the Democrats. They are pretty sure to win, unless they pull another Hillary.

 

[Patooka]

I’d say that the odds of it aren’t as low as a sane analysis of the facts should indicate it would be.

Yep

 

[bilby]

I’d say that the odds of it aren’t as low as a sane analysis of the facts should indicate it would be.

This is US Presidential Politics. What the FUCK has a sane analysis of the facts got to do with it?

 

[barbos]

Considering Clinton running I would say his chances are not that terrible.

 

[southernhybrid]

I'm not convinced that he will still be alive or want to run in 2020. He looks like his health is failing, both mentally and physically. Get back to me in about a year. I wouldn't even be surprised if he decided not to run. It's way too early to guess what will happen to him by 2020.

 

[Keith&Co.]

I'm not convinced that he will still be alive or want to run in 2020. He looks like his health is failing, both mentally and physically. Get back to me in about a year. I wouldn't even be surprised if he decided not to run. It's way too early to guess what will happen to him by 2020.

Well, he's filed and he's been campaigning since his inauguration, but I think that's mostly for the money. And giant rooms full of people shouting his name...
Barring incarceration or death, I think he's going to run until about 30 October, 2020. Then withdraw, citing health reasons, or threats from the big nasty dems, then take the money and run.

 

[ZiprHead]

I think Jeff Flake is preparing to run against Bonespurs in the primary.

 

[Elixir]

I’d say that the odds of it aren’t as low as a sane analysis of the facts should indicate it would be.

This is US Presidential Politics. What the FUCK has a sane analysis of the facts got to do with it?

Both of you are going to be bereft if (when) he gets tossed out like a pair of moldy underwear, right? But take heart - there will still be plenty about American politics to be snarky about! Our system is designed to provide plenty of such things.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Y'all will definitely be a lot less entertaining without him.

 

[Opoponax]

Y'all will definitely be a lot less entertaining without him.

Good.

Consider this our Honey Booboo phase. It was intriguing in a "Holy fuck, look at that!" kind of way, but the joke wore itself thin pretty quickly and then lingered way longer than it should have.

 

[Elixir]

Y'all will definitely be a lot less entertaining without him.

We'll get by, Tom. But I am a little worried about YOU...
You're a resourceful guy though; I'm sure you'll find ways to express condescension about the American system other than holding up the orange shitgibbon as an example. It's very fertile ground, after all.

 

[Patooka]

Y'all will definitely be a lot less entertaining without him.

We'll get by, Tom. But I am a little worried about YOU...
You're a resourceful guy though; I'm sure you'll find ways to express condescension about the American system other than holding up the orange shitgibbon as an example. It's very fertile ground, after all.

Yeah because US politicians were sane and mainstream before Trump. Just ask Palin or Huckabee or Carson or remember Herman Cain?

 

[Elixir]

Y'all will definitely be a lot less entertaining without him.

We'll get by, Tom. But I am a little worried about YOU...
You're a resourceful guy though; I'm sure you'll find ways to express condescension about the American system other than holding up the orange shitgibbon as an example. It's very fertile ground, after all.

Yeah because US politicians were sane and mainstream before Trump. Just ask Palin or Huckabee or Carson or remember Herman Cain?

I did note the fertility of the ground ... American politics has been a long-running theater of the absurd. But let's face it - what's going on right now puts most previous episodes to shame.

 

[TSwizzle]

It is so hard to predict what will happen this early but if the Dems don't get their shit together, I wouldn't be surprised at a second term for Trump, assuming he runs.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

It is so hard to predict what will happen this early but if the Dems don't get their shit together, I wouldn't be surprised at a second term for Trump, assuming he runs.

I agree. The election was firmly theirs, and they lost it. Its again theirs to lose this time, and they may.

 

[Terrell]

I’d say that the odds of it aren’t as low as a sane analysis of the facts should indicate it would be.

This^^.

At this time I think he's got decent odds, but that depends on who the democrats run & what issues are on the table, and the perception of such in a few select states. We already know how most of the states are going to vote barring the unforseen.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Well, Michael Avenatti might be a scratch.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We don't know how much they will manage to subvert the system. Or even if there will be an election.