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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

Tom Sawyer said:
Well, she doesn't actually need to win those states, she just needs to get up turnout in enough key congressional districts in those states to flip some seats in the House and get the Dems into a majority. While it would be nice to get 400 or so EVs, there's not really a difference between that and 300 (a little bit of padding is nice in case of unexpected events). The Presidency is a done deal and her efforts are better spent focusing on helping out the downticket races.
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It does matter. This shit has to end. The political derail which started with Gingrich, sped up under W, gained a lot of momentum with Sarah Palin, and is just a train full of shit on fire, has to stop. It has to end. It has to be eviscerated.

While we will never come close to defeating the Republicans like Mulroney was defeated, we have to get as close as we can to extinguish this hyper partisan bullshitery that has hijacked the Republican Party. We can't afford this any more. We lost 20 years to it, it is getting unimaginably worse, we can't lose any more.

Let's take Utah from Trump! Let's win 400 EVs and lose Texas by 5 pts and take back the House.
 
George S said:
I am politicophobic. I fear politicians. I fear government.

There are professional politicians -- people who have only ever made a living by being popular to their voters. The wink, wink at every large donation, and, coincidentally some government funding or ruling to that donor's benefit. Political power is a game of the golden rule: he who has the gold makes the rules. He who pays the piper calls the tune. A "good" politician stays bought. Hillary is the quintessential politician.
Hillary is owned by, or at least owes favors to, foreign governments through donations to the Clinton Foundation.
She was damaged by a brain injury and is unfit to be president. She has lied under oath and doubled down.

Trump has just one thing going for him. He is not Hillary.

He does stupid things like attacking the Kahns. Yeesh. He should have said something like this: I see the DNC has trotted out a Good American Muslim. I'll see your one Kahn with one Hassan, and raise you a Muslim terrorist attack in Orlando. It is the 16-25 year old male refugees I fear. He seems to respond without thought as to how it may be perceived by the general public.

I fear for the country. Comey outlined the case for indictment. Why did Clinton make his tarmac visit? In order to get Lynch to recuse herself, which she did, because he had bought Comey and knew what he would say.

Every election is the lesser of the two evils. I think I'll vote libertarian. No, wait, that's a vote for Hillary. Anyone but Hillary.
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Fear.

Yep, you are definitely the demographic Trump is aiming for.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Tom Sawyer said:
Well, she doesn't actually need to win those states, she just needs to get up turnout in enough key congressional districts in those states to flip some seats in the House and get the Dems into a majority. While it would be nice to get 400 or so EVs, there's not really a difference between that and 300 (a little bit of padding is nice in case of unexpected events). The Presidency is a done deal and her efforts are better spent focusing on helping out the downticket races.
Click to expand...
It does matter. This shit has to end. The political derail which started with Gingrich, sped up under W, gained a lot of momentum with Sarah Palin, and is just a train full of shit on fire, has to stop. It has to end. It has to be eviscerated.

While we will never come close to defeating the Republicans like Mulroney was defeated, we have to get as close as we can to extinguish this hyper partisan bullshitery that has hijacked the Republican Party. We can't afford this any more. We lost 20 years to it, it is getting unimaginably worse, we can't lose any more.

Let's take Utah from Trump! Let's win 400 EVs and lose Texas by 5 pts and take back the House.
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You actually think it will? The Trump support certainly won't come around - and the cohort of Rs who oppose Clinton, but not enough to support Trump will be invigorated to make sure she's unable to get anything accomplished.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Tom Sawyer said:
Well, she doesn't actually need to win those states, she just needs to get up turnout in enough key congressional districts in those states to flip some seats in the House and get the Dems into a majority. While it would be nice to get 400 or so EVs, there's not really a difference between that and 300 (a little bit of padding is nice in case of unexpected events). The Presidency is a done deal and her efforts are better spent focusing on helping out the downticket races.
Click to expand...
It does matter. This shit has to end. The political derail which started with Gingrich, sped up under W, gained a lot of momentum with Sarah Palin, and is just a train full of shit on fire, has to stop. It has to end. It has to be eviscerated.

While we will never come close to defeating the Republicans like Mulroney was defeated, we have to get as close as we can to extinguish this hyper partisan bullshitery that has hijacked the Republican Party. We can't afford this any more. We lost 20 years to it, it is getting unimaginably worse, we can't lose any more.

Let's take Utah from Trump! Let's win 400 EVs and lose Texas by 5 pts and take back the House.
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But winning the Presidency won't help that if the GOP still holds Congress. They'll just sit there holding their breath blocking everything and then use the ineffectiveness of government for fundraising efforts to help keep the system as it is.

If you want to change things, firing people from the down ticket races is the way to do that. A larger victory over Trump won't stop anything. It will just cause the people whom Trump insulted within the GOP (which is everyone) to say that Trump was the problem and they don't need to do anything different. The consequences need to affect them, not only affect someone they don't give a shit about.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
It does matter. This shit has to end. The political derail which started with Gingrich, sped up under W, gained a lot of momentum with Sarah Palin, and is just a train full of shit on fire, has to stop. It has to end. It has to be eviscerated.

While we will never come close to defeating the Republicans like Mulroney was defeated, we have to get as close as we can to extinguish this hyper partisan bullshitery that has hijacked the Republican Party. We can't afford this any more. We lost 20 years to it, it is getting unimaginably worse, we can't lose any more.

Let's take Utah from Trump! Let's win 400 EVs and lose Texas by 5 pts and take back the House.
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But winning the Presidency won't help that if the GOP still holds Congress.
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The premise is winning 400 EVs means a Trump collapse, which means the House and Senate go Democrat. 60 seats in the Senate is even more unthinkable than winning the House, but I think Clinton wins 400 EVs, the Democrats take the house. It all comes down to turnout, in every state.
 
The thing about taking 400 EVs vs taking 300 EVs, and flipping the Senate and possibly the house is that she and the Democrats can claim a mandate. Clinton could demand the GOP stop its rank obstructionism, and start playing for the 2018 off elections. Clinton could warn the GOP and America at large that American's are tired of a GOP that starts on day one vowing not to cooperate with a Democratic president in any thing. She could warn against the GOP doing things like attacking an amendment to eliminate all funding for Planned Parenthood to the Zika virus legislation so quickly needed, for example. Poison pill and blame game politics. A big mandate gives her a political upper hand.

A big mandate means she can play hardball and get away with it.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
The thing about taking 400 EVs vs taking 300 EVs, and flipping the Senate and possibly the house is that she and the Democrats can claim a mandate.
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Aw... fuck. Obama did too. We saw what the Republicans did... held out in Minnesota as long as they could and obstructed the fuck in the Senate to allow Lieberman and Nelson to have the power to fuck up the ACA.

Clinton could demand the GOP stop its rank obstructionism, and start playing for the 2018 off elections. Clinton could warn the GOP and America at large that American's are tired of a GOP that starts on day one vowing not to cooperate with a Democratic president in any thing. She could warn against the GOP doing things like attacking an amendment to eliminate all funding for Planned Parenthood to the Zika virus legislation so quickly needed, for example. Poison pill and blame game politics. A big mandate gives her a political upper hand.
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This isn't about mandate, this is about humiliating and exposing how little the nation, as a whole, agrees with the fuckwits that are the Trump supporters.
 
The problem is that large parts of America support far right politicians. They have given the right the Senate, House and most Governorships. If Trump eats it, the Dems and Clinton have to fight the remaining far right shitheads. The tired old Democratic half heartedness needs to end. Clinton, if she wins, needs to take that on, head on and in a big way.

And no fuckups. We need 4 years of success from Clinton. Obama got lead along by the GOP for years and had to bail out the nation from the GOP's failures, and got the blame for that. He didn't play hard ball hard enough. Hopefully after 8 years of that crap, Hillary knows what they will do and will take a political sledge hammer to the GOP.
 
You have badly missed the entire point of the quote.

While some might argue that Clinton was inaccurate in labeling women as the "primary victims of war" (since the majority of military members are male), a resolution adopted by the United Nation Security Council in 2000 arrived at a similar conclusion, stating that "civilians, particularly women and children, account for the vast majority of those adversely affected by armed conflict."

The United Nation Security Council repeated this assertion in 2008 when it adopted Resolution 1325, which stated in its introduction that rape and sexual assault were considered tactics of war:

[C]ivilians account for the vast majority of those adversely affected by armed conflict; women and girls are particularly targeted by the use of sexual violence, including as a tactic of war to humiliate, dominate, instill fear in, disperse and/or forcibly relocate civilian members of a community or ethnic group; and sexual violence perpetrated in this manner may in some instances persist after the cessation of hostilities.

[We] condemn in the strongest terms all sexual and other forms of violence committed against civilians in armed conflict, in particular women and children.

[We] reiterate deep concern that, despite its repeated condemnation of violence against women and children in situations of armed conflict, including sexual violence in situations of armed conflict, and despite its calls addressed to all parties to armed conflict for the cessation of such acts with immediate effect, such acts continue to occur, and in some situations have become systematic and widespread, reaching appalling levels of brutality.
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If you look for example at the Iraqi invasion by the US, many many MANY more civilians were killed than military. And many more were victimized beyond that.
It's easy to blithely think, "oh the primary victims of a war are the soldiers, because they die!" until you humbly realize they are not the only ones who die. And they aren't even the ones that die the most.

http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-victims-of-war/
 
Great news for Trump in Kansas, he has a reliable 5 pt lead over Clinton there. The incumbent Republican Senator... 20 pt lead.
Ford said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Gun owners were the true victims of Sandy Hook.
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And Obama founded ISIS.
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That isn't true. He was the inspiration for the founding of ISIS. If he tries to get any terror royalties, he ain't gonna get any.
 
Has anyone else seen Trump's spokeswoman who keeps going on CNN and the like? She is, without a doubt, the single worst spokesperson I've ever seen. I get that her job involves trying to defend (and even understand) all the crap that Trump is saying and that would tax the abilities of even the most competent person, but she is just horrible. I have never seen a single segment with her where I was not more confused about the matter than I was before she started talking.
 
Perhaps that is her goal, to confuse and confound, as there is no way to explain.
 
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