As we learned in 2000, it is sometimes too early to call the election even after the election!
Nate Silver has it at 83.4% in Clinton's favor at the moment, or 91.7% if the election were held today. That's an awfully big hill for Trump to climb. Or pay someone to climb.
I cannot go as far to say that this advantage is permanent, it may be, but I think we should wait & see. I still think it's possible that the middle finger vote is larger than it appears, but we'll have to wait & see. I'd warn all of us who support HRC, or simply think Trump is intolerable, to remain cautious on HRC's chances.
We're 7 weeks from the first debate. Clinton's post-convention bounce may wear off, but unless there's some major event between now and then I don't see the horse race changing much.
Agreed on the first point. I remember The Florida Recount. That plus 2012 makes me hope my state doesn't have his head stuck up it's ass
again.
Nate Silver does tend to get these things right.
The third point is the thing that worries me. I don't think that the convention bounce is permanent, but I hope it is.
This huge lead isn't much of a convention bounce as it is a combination of a bounce and Trump fucking up royally with women voters. The baby thing was pretty bad. No other politician would have gotten away with such a thing. Trump is losing support right now among Republicans and women. Those two things are from a bounce. He is making terrible mistakes of judgement. Heck 60% of Republicans polled thought the whole Khan thing was bad.
In order to recover, Trump has to stop being Trump. Of course, yesterday, he mocked how Clinton looked... something that won't play well with women.
I expect HRC to beat Trump in the debates, but if people expect her to wipe the floor with him and she underperforms I think it could be trouble for her. IOW if she's expected to win 50-3 but she only wins 30-21 that could be a problem. (I wish I had a better metaphor)
I also wonder about things happening either here or overseas that Trump could potentially use to exploit people's fears.
Naw.
I do agree that Trump is screwing up royally and it's improved HRC's odds greatly for the time being. I don't think HRC, her staff, and her supporters should relax. They need to keep hitting Trump where he's vulnerable. Clinton should assume that there are enough voters with a shorter attention span that us who follow politics more closely.
Stein is also trying to be a thorn in HRC's side, she's got ads airing here. If HRC has a way to flatten Stein, she needs to do so, quickly & ruthlessly. Hopefully Johnson can be a problem for Trump, but he can cut both ways. I doubt
Darrell Castle will get any attention. CNN is giving Stein a
town hall comparable to what they gave Johnson.