US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

[boneyard bill]

I think that pretty much every leader in every country starts running for the office a few years ahead of time at a minimum. It's just that the US has a more public process about it and the US news media covers every minute iota like it's a celebrity sex scandal and feels the need to stretch out five minutes worth of news into a week's worth of shows or else they'd be left with a lot of dead airspace which they'd then have to fill with some kind of fact-based and informative content and news programs tend to shy away from that sort of thing.

Yes. In parliamentary systems you have a "shadow cabinet" in the opposition benches. The PM candidate is not only chosen well ahead of time, but he assumes a position similar to that of the opposition party leader in the US Senate, and other members of the opposition cabinet are ready waiting to assume their positions as Foreign Secretary, Defense Minister, etc. and the lead the opposition in debate on issues related to those portfolios from the floor of parliament. So the nominee is usually known well ahead of time, but the general election campaign is pretty much an ongoing thing.

 

[lpetrich]

Chris Christie, Scott Walker, John Kasich avoid talk of 2016 in Vegas - CBS News: "GOP presidential race looms large as potential hopefuls gather"

They would have you believe their trip has nothing to do with 2016, but it's easy to see why nobody's buying that.

A gaggle of potential Republican presidential candidates, including Govs. Chris Christie, R-N.J., Scott Walker, R-Wis., and John Kasich, R-Ohio, made the pilgrimage to Las Vegas Saturday to speak to a meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, a small but influential group of GOP luminaries.

And, in a happy coincidence, the ambitious governors just might cross paths with one of most profligate GOP donors in the country - a man whose financial support has almost singlehandedly powered a major presidential campaign.

That man, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, is hosting the RJC meeting this weekend at his Venetian resort on the Las Vegas strip. During the 2012 primaries, $15 million of Adelson's money, channeled through a super PAC, was instrumental in launching Newt Gingrich to the fore of the GOP race and sustaining his campaign long after his small-dollar donations had dried up.

Someone called it the "Sheldon primary", because the candidates will likely be looking for his favor and hoping that he will help finance their careers. Not surprisingly, several of the speakers expressed support for one of his big issues, the great importance of Israel's security.

 

[arkirk]

The politics of the 2016 presidential election are simply abysmal. It is more a great Whore-race than a horse race. Even the big advantage in money the Republicans seem to always exercise is losing some of its power. It has to do with the constant bombardment of the public with sponsored liars in sick personal attack ads...sometimes the only slightly less heinous democrat guy wins regardless of the money. The Demos are whores too, doncha know!

 

[lpetrich]

2016 US Presidential Election

Trump brings birther charge against Cruz | TheHill

Donald Trump himself:

He was born in Canada. If you know and when we all studied our history lessons, you are supposed to be born in this country, so I just don't know how the courts will rule on this.

His plans and Cruz's announcement:

After flirting with a 2012 presidential bid, Trump has announced an exploratory committee for 2016 and says he will not renew his contract for his TV show, "The Apprentice" on NBC.

Cruz confirmed his bid for president on Monday morning during a speech at Liberty University.

“It’s going to take a new generation of courageous conservatives to help make America great again, and I’m ready to stand with you to lead the fight," he said in a video touting the speech.

Is anyone going to say "I like Ted Cruz, but he ought to stay in the Senate. His birth status is rather iffy, and he ought to resolve that before running for President."?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I reported the OP for bringing up Donald Trump. There is a decency standard at this web board you know.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I'm pretty sure that Ted Cruz is a white guy, so nobody much cares where he was born.

 

[lpetrich]

Here are people who have been discussed as possible candidates, who are running, or who have been running. I'm listing Mitt Romney here, although he has dropped out. But if there are no good alternatives, he might reappear.

Republican:
Kelly Ayotte
Sam Brownback
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Mitch Daniels
Carly Fiorina
Rudy Giuliani
Lindsey Graham
Nikki Haley
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
Susana Martinez
Sarah Palin
George Pataki
Rick Perry
Rand Paul
Mike Pence
Rob Portman
Condoleezza Rice
Mitt Romney
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Rick Santorum
Tim Scott
John Thune
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Allen West

No clear front runner, though Jeb Bush has replaced Mitt Romney as the "establishment" candidate.


Democratic:
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Andrew Cuomo
Kristen Gillibrand
Martin O'Malley
Deval Patrick
Bernie Sanders
Brian Schweitzer
Elizabeth Warren
Jim Webb

So far, Hillary Clinton has been the front runner. It looks like a coronation for her.


Libertarian:
Gary Johnson
(maybe not worth mentioning because of Duverger's law)

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Who brought up Allen West? Granted, his name has been frighteningly more common in articles despite not being in office.

Palin isn't running.

You know, if Kasich doesn't bite at it, Portman could be another VP candidate option. It'll be interesting to see how Portman does with his Senate race. He signed off on the letter that should have gotten him censured. Ohio is purple not deep red.

Also, Clinton isn't winning the nomination. I think Cuomo might be my top pick for Democrat options. As a reminder, I selected Bill Richardson very early for the '08 Democrat Nomination, just so you know how unimportant my early predictions can be.

 

[dismal]

I'm pretty sure that Ted Cruz is a white guy, so nobody much cares where he was born.

Technically he's the world's second White Hispanic.

As I understand it a White Hispanic is a Hispanic who you have a free pass not to treat as Hispanic for your racial identity narratives.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I'm pretty sure that Ted Cruz is a white guy, so nobody much cares where he was born.

Technically he's the world's second White Hispanic.

As I understand it a White Hispanic is a Hispanic who you have a free pass not to treat as Hispanic for your racial identity narratives.

Correct. Hispanics get to be white when they don't like the darkies.

 

[fromderinside]

I reported the OP for bringing up Donald Trump. There is a decency standard at this web board you know.

Not only is he an insult to this forum he's dumb as a bag of empty. Any person born of US citizens is a US citizen. Supreme court, even the Roberts court, is never going to let this bit of idiocy come before it.

 

[dismal]

I reported the OP for bringing up Donald Trump. There is a decency standard at this web board you know.

Not only is he an insult to this forum he's dumb as a bag of empty. Any person born of US citizens is a US citizen. Supreme court, even the Roberts court, is never going to let this bit of idiocy come before it.

The widely accepted view is that there are two kinds of US citizens: people who are born US citizens and people who become naturalized as US citizens after birth. As far as the presidential requirement goes it doesn't matter where you are born, it matters that you were born a US citizen.

There have been many major candidates who were not born in the US proper over the years. McCain being the most recent.

 

[Axulus]

I reported the OP for bringing up Donald Trump. There is a decency standard at this web board you know.

Not only is he an insult to this forum he's dumb as a bag of empty. Any person born of US citizens is a US citizen. Supreme court, even the Roberts court, is never going to let this bit of idiocy come before it.

His father was born in Cuba. I think Cruz is going to have to release the long form of the citizenship papers of both his parents, proving their citizenship before his date of birth. He will also need to produce the long form of his birth certificate so we can verify his date of birth.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Not only is he an insult to this forum he's dumb as a bag of empty. Any person born of US citizens is a US citizen. Supreme court, even the Roberts court, is never going to let this bit of idiocy come before it.

His father was born in Cuba. I think Cruz is going to have to release the long form of the citizenship papers of both his parents, proving their citizenship before his date of birth. He will also need to produce the long form of his birth certificate so we can verify his date of birth.

He''s talking about Shaft... I mean Trump.

 

[Axulus]

If Cruz, Rand Paul, or Marco Rubio don't get elected (or even nominated), will that falsify the "1% control everything" hypothesis, since these are the three horses backed by the Koch fundraising network?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I hope that the Democrats actually do the right thing for a change.

1. Don't nominate Hillary. You narrowly avoided that mistake in 2008, it seems you are determined to make that mistake.
2. Nominate Schweitzer. It would be good to have a candidate whose most appealing characteristic is better than "at least he's not the other guy."

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If Cruz, Rand Paul, or Marco Rubio don't get elected (or even nominated), will that falsify the "1% control everything" hypothesis, since these are the three horses backed by the Koch fundraising network?

The Koch's aren't the 1%, they aren't even the 0.1%. They are the 0.01%.

 

[ksen]

Not only is he an insult to this forum he's dumb as a bag of empty. Any person born of US citizens is a US citizen. Supreme court, even the Roberts court, is never going to let this bit of idiocy come before it.

His father was born in Cuba. I think Cruz is going to have to release the long form of the citizenship papers of both his parents, proving their citizenship before his date of birth. He will also need to produce the long form of his birth certificate so we can verify his date of birth.

What could possibly go wrong electing a first-term senator, son of a foreign-born father, electoral longshot, Harvard Law Review editor, constitutional lawyer and lauded orator as president?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Ron Paul supporters bolt Rand Paul camp - Many are disillusioned by Rand Paul’s concessions to mainstream politics.

As he pulls together his expected presidential campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, Sen. Rand Paul is confronted by defections from an unexpected quarter: the die-hard idealists whose energy powered his father’s campaigns.

That network of committed supporters was expected to convey to Paul, the natural successor to Ron Paul’s libertarian movement, providing him with a plug-and-play ground organization in the make-or-break early voting states. But instead of embracing the Kentucky senator, many of those grass-roots activists are turning their backs on him, disillusioned by the younger Paul’s concessions to mainstream politics.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I hope that the Democrats actually do the right thing for a change.

1. Don't nominate Hillary. You narrowly avoided that mistake in 2008, it seems you are determined to make that mistake.
2. Nominate Schweitzer. It would be good to have a candidate whose most appealing characteristic is better than "at least he's not the other guy."

But they are going to make that mistake. Hillary Clinton will be the next US President. Nobody's particularly happy about that and the Left is only slightly less thrilled about a Clinton presidency than the right is, but it's a thing that's going to happen and we all just kind of need to accept it. The good news is that there are term limits and ten years from now it will be done. There's not much to do except wait.