dismal said:
Maduro needs the idea the US is out to get him far more than Joe Biden needs anything he's got.
I agree Maduro needs that. And now, the US government obliges by declaring Venezuela a national security threat.
If that's the only way they can impose sanctions on some Venezuelan officials, then they should refrain from imposing sanctions. Well, actually, it seems extremely probable that sanctions help boost the credibility of Maduro's excuses domestically, so the US should refrain from imposing them anyway.
dismal said:
It's even hard to imagine how Joe Biden could screw up Venezuela any worse than Maduro's policies if he wanted to. A good conspiracy theorist might even argue the US sent Maduro in there to fuck up the country as much as possible.
Right, but the US can always cooperate with Maduro, helping him cling to power by - for example - declaring Venezuela a threat to US national security, and imposing sanctions on some Venezuelan officials. If Maduro manages to call off the elections and stay in power (which may or may not happen), part of the blame will lie with the US government, by imposing sanctions.
It kind of reminds me of the Cuban blockade, which rewards the Castro regime.
dismal said:
Or maybe freezing all their bank accounts will cause the Venezuelan people to wonder why their noble socialist leaders all have big US bank accounts.
No, that's almost certainly not going to work. They can simply deny that they had bank accounts in the first place. Why do you suspect they will believe the American government? Sure, some Venezuelans will believe them - those already opposed to Maduro -, but the fact that the US government declares Venezuela a threat to national security is enough to help Maduro come up with excuses for seizing more power. It's a bad idea.
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Axulus said:
It's really just a way to penalize a country not friendly to the US for engaging in totalitarian type actions. The targeting of political opposition for arrests and detaining them indefinitely is pretty reprehensible. No, the US obviously isn't consistent - it won't do similar actions if allied countries engage in reprehensible behavior (Saudi Arabia being prime example) - however, there are other geopolitical considerations at play there. When such considerations are absent, why not formally penalize abusers?
Because the formal penalization is a very probably practical reward, probably helping them extend their abuses for longer.
Axulus said:
Why shouldn't we steer countries towards policies that bring about prosperity and greater respect for human rights, prosperity that can be used to reduce poverty, etc.? By "steer" I mean provide support and encouragement for countries to embrace them, and make statements and sanctions if they violate human rights. Yes, we absolutely should take a stand for western liberal values and encourage more countries to embrace them. It not only helps them out but it makes the world a safer place.
But that's not what "steer" means.
If by making statements and sanctions if they violate human rights, you increase the probability that oppressive regimes become more oppressive and/or last for longer (e.g., Cuban embargo; declaring Venezuela a national security threat and penalizing some officials), you're not steering them towards the policies in question.
Maduro's government is so weak economically that it might fall anyway, but I reckon its chances of enduring just got a boost by means of both the declaration that it's a national security threat, and the sanctions. Maybe Maduro will call off the elections. Maybe not. But its chances of doing so and getting away with it - or of just concentrating so much power on the Presidency that legislative elections become much less important - just got better.
It seems to me that some people in the American government seriously underestimate the degree of distrust towards the US in much Latin America, and the degree to which many people will rally in support of their government at the faintest hint of a hostile action, or of "interference" in the internal affairs.
Axulus said:
Just imagine if the West was too weak and had the same attitudes towards communism (declined to steer countries away from it and/or out of it). The world would be a worse place today with more human misery and suffering.
That depends on the case. If there had been no Cuban embargo, would Cuba still be communist?
One can't be sure. But at least, the Cuban government would not have been able to persuade so many that most of its economic problems were the fault of the US. Maybe they would still be communist in name and politically authoritarian, but at least there would be more economic freedom. Or maybe the regime would have collapsed. Who knows?
In any case, the embargo was - and is - a bad idea (well, maybe a good idea for some politicians who wanted or want votes in Florida, but I mean with respect to the regime), rewarding the regime in practice by means of formally punishing it.
Axulus said:
It's really just a way to penalize a country not friendly to the US for engaging in totalitarian type actions. The targeting of political opposition for arrests and detaining them indefinitely is pretty reprehensible. No, the US obviously isn't consistent - it won't do similar actions if allied countries engage in reprehensible behavior (Saudi Arabia being prime example) - however, there are other geopolitical considerations at play there. When such considerations are absent, why not formally penalize abusers?
Because the formal penalization is a very probably practical reward, probably helping them extend their abuses for longer.
Axulus said:
Why shouldn't we steer countries towards policies that bring about prosperity and greater respect for human rights, prosperity that can be used to reduce poverty, etc.? By "steer" I mean provide support and encouragement for countries to embrace them, and make statements and sanctions if they violate human rights. Yes, we absolutely should take a stand for western liberal values and encourage more countries to embrace them. It not only helps them out but it makes the world a safer place.
But that's not what "steer" means.
If by making statements and sanctions if they violate human rights, you increase the probability that oppressive regimes become more oppressive and/or last for longer (e.g., Cuban embargo; declaring Venezuela a national security threat and penalizing some officials), you're not steering them towards the policies in question.
Maduro's government is so weak economically that it might fall anyway, but I reckon its chances of enduring just got a boost by means of both the declaration that it's a national security threat, and the sanctions. Maybe Maduro will call off the elections. Maybe not. But its chances of doing so and getting away with it - or of just concentrating so much power on the Presidency that legislative elections become much less important - just got better.
It seems to me that some people in the American government seriously underestimate the degree of distrust towards the US in much Latin America, and the degree to which many people will rally in support of their government at the faintest hint of a hostile action, or of "interference" in the internal affairs.
Axulus said:
Just imagine if the West was too weak and had the same attitudes towards communism (declined to steer countries away from it and/or out of it). The world would be a worse place today with more human misery and suffering.
That depends on the case. If there had been no Cuban embargo, would Cuba still be communist?
One can't be sure. But at least, the Cuban government would not have been able to persuade so many that most of its economic problems were the fault of the US. Maybe they would still be communist in name and politically authoritarian, but at least there would be more economic freedom. Or maybe the regime would have collapsed. Who knows?
In any case, the embargo was - and is - a bad idea (well, maybe a good idea for some politicians who wanted or want votes in Florida, but I mean with respect to the regime), rewarding the regime in practice by means of formally punishing it.