When it was announced that Michel Barnier was France’s new prime minister, commentators joked that he was better known to the British public than to the French. There’s more than a grain of truth in this.
The name of the former chief EU Brexit negotiator would raise a nod of recognition in many British households (for good or ill). In France, Barnier was a peripheral right-wing politician.
His appointment has nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with the state of French politics since president Emmanuel Macron’s bewildering decision in June to
dissolve the National Assembly and call parliamentary elections.
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Seen from the outside, Barnier’s record hardly seems like a ringing endorsement of the case for him as prime minister. He did, after all, lose his party primary to a woman who went on to secure less than 5% of the national vote in the presidential election. But that is to overlook the internal politics of the French republican right and centre post-dissolution.
Macron needs Les Républicains, but they will not sell their 47 seats cheaply. And why should they? Macron’s gamble in calling an election went catastrophically wrong. It was the left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front (NFP) that emerged with the largest number of seats – nearly 200 – while Macron’s various supporters managed around 180.
Macron, however is not temperamentally equipped to accept cohabitation with the left and had no intention of appointing a government led by the NFP. Focus then shifted onto the centre-left or centre-right options: Bernard Cazeneuve, a former Socialist prime minister, or former right-wing minister Xavier Bertrand.
It may well be that the Cazeneuve option was just Macron’s attempt to split the left bloc. It failed when the Socialist executive committee voted against supporting such an enterprise. But the problem with Bertrand was that he was deeply unpopular within his own party, having left in 2017 before rejoining in 2021.
Barnier, on the other hand, is regarded within Les Républicains as a loyalist and has the full backing of his party in both houses of parliament. More importantly, he has no ambitions to use the premiership as a platform for another tilt at the presidency .
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The reasons for this lie in Barnier’s 2021 presidential bid, which saw him tack further right by promising to freeze immigration for up to five years, build more prisons and open up discussions on France’s future relationships with the European Court of Human Rights and the European Court of Justice.
It’s still not clear if Barnier can secure any sort of workable platform in the National Assembly or even appoint ministers. It is unlikely that he will have the names of his senior team ready before 16 September and until then, there will be any number of names being linked to the key ministries - interior, finance, education. A notional 234 MPs out of 577 might make up a government bloc, if all the Macronists, Les Républicains and the moderate right group sign up and the far-right sit on their hands.