Vive la France!

[Derec]

I expect to be laughed off the stage for my question, but here goes. Is it possible that Macron could offer some concessions to Moderates within the Far-right Extremists (oxymoron?) and entice them to accept a cabinet seat or two? Then do the same with some oxymoronic Left-wing extremists? End up with a "Centrist" regime? After all, the people voted, in effect, for Centrism.

It could be possible. The "New Popular Front" consists of several parties. The communists and the "France Unbowed" are more radical, the "Socialist Party" which is really social-democratic could be persuaded to enter a coalition with Ensemble. I do not know how many seats they won - no website I have seen provided the breakdown within NFP. Then there are the conservative Republicans who won 39 seats.

 

[Derec]

That your obsession is blinding you to the repeat of the 20th Century with European fascism?

And your obsession is blinding you to the dangers of the Far Left and Islamization in the 21st century. People always want to fight the last war.

What happened in France was a gimmick.

Explain what you mean.

You are worried about Muslims and left-wingers.

I am. Very much so.
Mélenchon is every bit as radical as Le Pen, but he is far more dangerous, because she automatically gets shunned, while he is not.

Had the center/left coalitions not conspired together, the party of ACTUAL FASCISM would have likely won.

I disagree with many of their policies, but I also think it is overblown to call them fascist. Note that FN decisively won the plurality of the popular vote in both rounds. It is only the convoluted French electoral system that relegated them to the 3rd place.

Macron and the left-wing barely held off the nationalist party. Nationalism just won't die. It keeps coming back because too many people want tomorrow to be yesterday. That isn't how things work. But good luck convincing them of that.

I think it is the people who fear the "repeat of the 20th Century with European fascism" that think that tomorrow is yesterday.
Why do you think FN is so popular? They certainly got far more popular votes than the supposed "Popular Front".

I think a lot of it has to do with the mass migration crisis (especially since floodgates were opened in 2015) and the unwillingness of mainstream parties to do anything to stem this Islamic invasion. Instead, those who dared questioned lax asylum rules and influx of millions of people from cultures incompatible with European values were dismissed as "xenophobes" and "racists". It was a foolish dismissal of a legitimate point that should have been addressed seriously.

 

[Derec]

That seems to be exactly what Macron will try, according to a number of pundits that I have read. He will try to cobble together a coalition that includes elements of the New Popular Front and some center-right allies of the National Rally. It is far from clear that he will succeed, because France does not have a history of coalition-building, like many other European countries.

That is true. Take Germany next door. They always have coalition governments.

Any new government would be vulnerable to losing a vote of confidence--much like the ability of MAGA Republicans in the House to continually threaten to vote out their Speaker.

That is more of a danger if there is a minority government, say one led by NFP. If Macron's centrists manage to cobble together a coalition that has a majority, it should be stable unless the government does something that a faction of the coalition cannot abide.

The New Popular Front should be able to have the best chance of forming a government, but it has no politically viable candidate for Prime Minister.

They are the biggest block, but I do not think they have the best chance at forming a stable government. They are more than 100 seats removed from a majority, and the block was a marriage of convenience - it has very different parties, some moderate, some radical. I doubt they could agree among themselves on a governing plan, let alone entice >100 others to join them.
I think Macron's Ensemble has the best chance, as Swamerdami said. They could work with moderate right and moderate left and cobble something that could last until next elections. Just don't expect any bold policy proposals.

The largest leftist party, the radical France Unbowed, is considered incapable of forming alliances. Even the Communists are considered moderate in comparison to them. So Macron will try to patch something together, but it will have little chance of lasting very long.

It only has to last until the next elections. If it doesn't, what then? Another election, where FN says "see, they can't govern" and "we got more voted, but they conspired against us". A centrist coalition working would be the best argument against radicals on both fringes.

Many voters who ended up voting for the Popular Front were not really voting for their first choice, just for the lesser of two evils in their minds.

It remains to be seen whether Mélenchon is really the lesser of two weevils.

 

[Derec]

That's the problem. The Popular Front has no politically viable candidate for Prime Minister.

Mélenchon certainly wants it. He might try for a minority government. I agree that it would not be very stable.

Melenchon is reviled by much of the public and most other parties. He is not the leader of the Popular Front. It has no leader. His party just garnered the most votes within that hastily formed coalition because of the strategic voting movement.

He is reviled, and yet they voted for his party? Sacre bleu!

Macron will try to cobble together a shaky coalition, but it is unlikely to succeed. He may also try to form a government to technocrats that operate outside of electoral process. That has happened in countries like Italy, but it is unlikely to be very effective. I'm not sure how that would work.

How it would work is to get the blessing of most members of parliament and keep that blessing for the duration. Whether this would work is up in the air. But in any case, giving prime ministership to Mélenchon would be a mistake.

 

[Derec]

Considering the options I would go with the "far-left extremists". Especially since the other options are Nazis, who would kill me and others like me.

FN are not Nazis. Besides, communist governments of the 20th century were not exactly slouches in the "slaughtering their own citizens" department.

 

[Derec]

You certainly could pass as one, at least when writing.

Thanks.

In any event, you appear to know enough about English orthography to have the sense not to complain about any other.

To be fair, I criticized British medieval electoral system as well in the other thread. 1/3 of the vote and 2/3 of the seats - give me a break!
Neither their orthographies nor electoral systems make much sense. French have less of an excuse though. UK has had a stable system for centuries which is why it is outdated. French are on their 5th Republic already. It started in 1958, modern enough times that they could and should have come up with something better.

 

[Copernicus]

That's the problem. The Popular Front has no politically viable candidate for Prime Minister.

Mélenchon certainly wants it. He might try for a minority government. I agree that it would not be very stable.

Melenchon is reviled by much of the public and most other parties. He is not the leader of the Popular Front. It has no leader. His party just garnered the most votes within that hastily formed coalition because of the strategic voting movement.

He is reviled, and yet they voted for his party? Sacre bleu!

Macron will try to cobble together a shaky coalition, but it is unlikely to succeed. He may also try to form a government to technocrats that operate outside of electoral process. That has happened in countries like Italy, but it is unlikely to be very effective. I'm not sure how that would work.

How it would work is to get the blessing of most members of parliament and keep that blessing for the duration. Whether this would work is up in the air. But in any case, giving prime ministership to Mélenchon would be a mistake.

Nobody sees Mélenchon as much of a threat, since he has pretty much burned any bridges to potential allies. The whole point of strategic voting was to remove weak candidates so as not to split the anti-NR vote. So people ended up sometimes voting for Unbowed France candidates as the lesser of two evils. They weren't voting for Mélenchon. They were voting against the NR. Forget Mélenchon. He is busy shooting his foot off.

 

[Bomb#20]

That your obsession is blinding you to the repeat of the 20th Century with European fascism?

And your obsession is blinding you to the dangers of the Far Left and Islamization in the 21st century. People always want to fight the last war.

"People"? Now there's a convoluted way to spell "The French". By 1914 all the other major powers had figured out smokeless powder meant it was time to switch to drab uniforms, but the French showed up for WWI in bright red and blue uniforms straight out of the Franco-Prussian War and got picked off by snipers. And then in WWII they thought their Maginot Line was just the thing to keep them safe from German trench warfare.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

Considering the options I would go with the "far-left extremists". Especially since the other options are Nazis, who would kill me and others like me.

FN are not Nazis. Besides, communist governments of the 20th century were not exactly slouches in the "slaughtering their own citizens" department.

The far-right are no different than Nazis. Secondly, do you really think the likes of Bernie Sanders would slaughter their own citizens? That's laughable.

 

[Elixir]

The far-right are no different than Nazis.

FIFY
I don’t think Derec is a Nazi, but it will probably be people of his opinion who will bring them to power.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That your obsession is blinding you to the repeat of the 20th Century with European fascism?

And your obsession is blinding you to the dangers of the Far Left and Islamization in the 21st century. People always want to fight the last war.

That'd be your obsession again blinding you to real facism. I don't fear far-left and Islamization because the moderates in the United States is a good enough firewall to prevent going overboard. We can't even do nationalized health care and you are afraid of the far-left wresting power? Seriously?!

What happened in France was a gimmick.

Explain what you mean.

You could try reading my post before responding to it in bits and pieces.

Had the center/left coalitions not conspired together, the party of ACTUAL FASCISM would have likely won.

I disagree with many of their policies, but I also think it is overblown to call them fascist.

Yes, that was my point. Thanks for demonstrating it... again.

Note that FN decisively won the plurality of the popular vote in both rounds. It is only the convoluted French electoral system that relegated them to the 3rd place.

You keep repeating me, why? I already said the win was a gimmick.

Macron and the left-wing barely held off the nationalist party. Nationalism just won't die. It keeps coming back because too many people want tomorrow to be yesterday. That isn't how things work. But good luck convincing them of that.

I think it is the people who fear the "repeat of the 20th Century with European fascism" that think that tomorrow is yesterday.
Why do you think FN is so popular?

Racism, intolerance, failed acts of austerity, the mistaken idea that life was utopian 60 years ago and we can get it back if we only get rid of all the new people?

I think a lot of it has to do with the mass migration crisis (especially since floodgates were opened in 2015) and the unwillingness of mainstream parties to do anything to stem this Islamic invasion.

*rolls eyes*

None of that shit and fascism came to Europe in the early 20th century. They promised easy solutions to big problems, that usually had to do with inferior people.

The real problem is, life is hard.

Instead, those who dared questioned lax asylum rules and influx of millions of people from cultures incompatible with European values were dismissed as "xenophobes" and "racists". It was a foolish dismissal of a legitimate point that should have been addressed seriously.

Yes Derec, I get it, you hate change. It scares you. You are frightened by it. The good news is, you aren't alone, both now and in the past. In America, we hated the Brits, then the Irish, then the immigrants in general, then the Chinese, these days its Africans, Mexicans, and Central Americans. We fear the Japanese taking over America in the later 80s, early 90s. They were buying everything up*. We hate China, especially for all their pollution and them having this fucked up idea that they are allowed to become competitive and risk our standing atop the globe.**

But the reality is, the greatest threat to life is not from the Muslims, it is the national Xians that want to return things to darker times.

* - no they weren't
** - those fuckers!

 

[bilby]

That your obsession is blinding you to the repeat of the 20th Century with European fascism?

And your obsession is blinding you to the dangers of the Far Left and Islamization in the 21st century. People always want to fight the last war.

"People"? Now there's a convoluted way to spell "The French". By 1914 all the other major powers had figured out smokeless powder meant it was time to switch to drab uniforms, but the French showed up for WWI in bright red and blue uniforms straight out of the Franco-Prussian War and got picked off by snipers. And then in WWII they thought their Maginot Line was just the thing to keep them safe from German trench warfare.

"Le pantalon rouge, c'est la France!" - Eugène Étienne, former French Minister of War, speaking in January 1912 in response to Adolphe Messimy, then Minister of War, calling for reform of French Army uniforms.

Massimy did make the final decision to switch to horizon blue uniforms before France entered the Great War - one day before. To be fair, he had lost his Ministry in 1912, and hadn't returned as Minister for War until two weeks earlier, so it wasn't his fault that the decision wasn't made earlier.

It took until the end of 1915 to complete the transition to the new uniform, because the war made things rather difficult.


The Maginot Line did its job of preventing a German invasion, and was only defeated by the fall of France. If it had extended along the Belgian border to the North Sea coast, it would have been a very tough nut to crack; But it didn't, so the Germans just went around, instead of through.

 

[Toni]

No, you don't understand how the French system works.

Do the French even understand it? It seems to be convoluted for the sake of being convoluted, like their spelling. "Eaux" or "ault" for an "o" sound. Why? Likewise, they have this 2 round system but it's not a real runoff since they had to persuade candidates to drop out. Just implement a proportional system like the Germanic tribes to the west of Gaul and be done with it!

The French parliament is now divided into three groups--the far right, the center, and the leftist New Popular Front.

I am aware that the Popular Front does not have the majority, but as you said, the leader of the largest block customarily gets the prime ministership.

However, Macron has already ruled out letting his party form an alliance with the New Popular Front, because he considers the France Unbowed (La France Insoumise) party in that coalition to be too radical.

They are radical, and Mélenchon is a fan of Putin. How is he an improvement over Marine Le Pen? He also thinks he should be allowed to rule by himself even without a majority, god love him.
Who Is Jean-Luc Melenchon? Far-Left Leader Defiant After French Victory

It didn’t take Jean-Luc Melenchon long to seize the moment after initial poll indications of the French legislative vote showed the leftist New Popular Front was headed to a shock victory.
Before other leaders of that alliance — which includes his own far-left France Unbowed, the Socialists and the Greens — could get a word in, Melenchon took center stage at a gathering of followers, demanding that it should be called on to govern the country. He also declared that the New Popular Front won’t entertain “combinations” and will refuse negotiations with other groups.
“The NFP will implement its program,” Melenchon told supporters Sunday. “Nothing but its program. All of its program.”

In any case, the leftist coalition wants to tear down some of the unpopular policies he has put in place.

The alliance has promised a major increase in public spending, a boost to the minimum wage and a cut in the retirement age — measures that would provoke a major clash with the European Union. The Institut Montaigne estimates that the New Popular Front’s campaign pledges would require nearly €179 billion ($194 billion) in extra funds per year.

Yes, the raising of the retirement age may have been unpopular, but it was necessary. And this election was a means to repudiate FN, it is not a mandate for NPF to implement radical change - even without a majority, which I still do not see how he may accomplish legally.

The 72-year-old fan of former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez and Cuba’s Fidel Castro has long spooked markets and investors every time he’s come close to power.
Known for his fiery speeches, often without a teleprompter or notes and using his trademark mix of humor and anger, the Communist-backed far-left leader often regales crowds with the evils of “extreme markets that transform suffering, misery and abandonment into gold and money.” He has alluded in the past to France as a country “with huge wealth that is badly distributed.”

Are French aware of the expression "casting out Devil with Beelzebub"? Or "from the frying pan into the fire"?

So it is unlikely that the French Parliament will have a ruling coalition until the next parliamentary elections, which is a full year away. In other words, the French government will be largely hamstrung for a year. Macron's term in office lasts until 2027, and he vowed not to resign no matter how the current election turned out. Just the same, his power to implement policies will be severely weakened over the next year.

So a gridlock? Interesting. But somebody will have to be elected prime minister, even if they are not particularly effective, right? Will Mélenchon be given it or will there be a compromise caretaker, maybe some éminence grise?

French is relatively easy, especially compared to English which has both Latin roots ( as does French) and Germanic languages, and heavily borrows from other languages as well.

Actually if you know the spelling and grammatical conventions in French, it’s pretty easy, at least coming from the perspective of a native English speaker.

Your own English is extremely good. You write well.

 

[bilby]

The far-right are no different than Nazis.

FIFY
I don’t think Derec is a Nazi, but it will probably be people of his opinion who will bring them to power.

I don't think you understand what Nazis are. They are boring and uptight citizens, who demand a strong government to crack down on "them", because "they" are making the place look untidy.

The brutal, jackboot-wearing, villainous thugs who shoot people dead; The Brownshirts who started wild brawls with rival political parties; The leather trenchcoat wearing Gestapo men who raided Jewish homes at 3am and dragged people off for torture - these were always a tiny minority of Nazis.

The vast majority of Nazis were tedious rural and suburban types, full of fear, but with little imagination, who wrote letters to the newspapers outraged at the existential threat to Germany posed by Jewry, communism, and modernity; and calling for something to be done.

The Hollywood caricature of the evil Nazi in his SS uniform is rather dangerous, as it allows people to embrace fascism under the secure delusion that they don't fit that image, and are therefore not at risk of becoming Nazis themselves.

The overwhelming majority of the Nazis who put Hitler in power were tedious little men with boringly bigoted views.

 

[Politesse]

The far-right are no different than Nazis.

FIFY
I don’t think Derec is a Nazi, but it will probably be people of his opinion who will bring them to power.

I don't think you understand what Nazis are. They are boring and uptight citizens, who demand a strong government to crack down on "them", because "they" are making the place look untidy.

The brutal, jackboot-wearing, villainous thugs who shoot people dead; The Brownshirts who started wild brawls with rival political parties; The leather trenchcoat wearing Gestapo men who raided Jewish homes at 3am and dragged people off for torture - these were always a tiny minority of Nazis.

The vast majority of Nazis were tedious rural and suburban types, full of fear, but with little imagination, who wrote letters to the newspapers outraged at the existential threat to Germany posed by Jewry and communism, and calling for something to be done.

The Hollywood caricature of the evil Nazi in his SS uniform is rather dangerous, as it allows people to embrace fascism under the secure delusion that they don't fit that image, and are therefore not at risk of becoming Nazis themselves.

The overwhelming majority of the Nazis who put Hitler in power were tedious little men with boringly bigoted views.

The show is dangerous, but the audience is the real threat:

 

[Bomb#20]

Considering the options I would go with the "far-left extremists". Especially since the other options are Nazis, who would kill me and others like me.

FN are not Nazis. Besides, communist governments of the 20th century were not exactly slouches in the "slaughtering their own citizens" department.

The far-right are no different than Nazis.

The far-left are no different from Nazis. Communism and Nazism are the same ideology -- the problems of society are caused by a parasitic minority and the solution is to get rid of that parasitic minority. That the two examples focus their hostility on different minority groups is incidental.

Secondly, do you really think the likes of Bernie Sanders would slaughter their own citizens? That's laughable.

Do you really think Melenchon is the likes of Bernie Sanders?

In any event, do you really think Marine Le Pen would kill you and others like you? That's laughable too. The problem with extreme ideologies is generally not that their people want to kill you. The average Bolshevik didn't want to murder millions of Ukrainians; heck, the average Nazi didn't want to murder millions of Jews -- that's why the leadership kept the death camps a secret. The problem with extreme ideologies is that once they take power their internal dynamics favor the promotion of whichever ideologue can outdo the others at ruthlessness. Le Pen and Melenchon surely wouldn't slaughter their own citizens, but if they win and separation of powers fails to keep them in check, they're apt to be sidelined in favor of someone who would.

 

[Derec]

"People"? Now there's a convoluted way to spell "The French". By 1914 all the other major powers had figured out smokeless powder meant it was time to switch to drab uniforms, but the French showed up for WWI in bright red and blue uniforms straight out of the Franco-Prussian War and got picked off by snipers. And then in WWII they thought their Maginot Line was just the thing to keep them safe from German trench warfare.

Ha. It may be more pronounced with the French, but it is a more universal human condition.

 

[Derec]

The far-right are no different than Nazis.

Bullshit. There are gradations, just like on the left-hand end of the horseshoe.

Secondly, do you really think the likes of Bernie Sanders would slaughter their own citizens? That's laughable.

No, I do not. But he is more of a social democrat who adopted the "socialism" label to be an edgelord.
It's the same on the right. Bardella is not Hitler. Mélenchon is not Stalin. Does not mean that I think either would make a good prime minister though.

 

[Derec]

FIFY
I don’t think Derec is a Nazi, but it will probably be people of his opinion who will bring them to power.

Bullshit. Might as well say that it is the people of your (or Jimmy's) opinion that will bring communists to power.

 

[Derec]

That'd be your obsession again blinding you to real facism.

No, it isn't. I am just able to see multiple threats, not just one. You have a blinder over your left eye, I do not.

I don't fear far-left and Islamization because the moderates in the United States is a good enough firewall to prevent going overboard. We can't even do nationalized health care and you are afraid of the far-left wresting power? Seriously?!

We are talking here about France, not US. The Left is less powerful in the US and there are fewer Muslims. France has a powerful far-left that is now the biggest party in the parliament. Moreover, more than 10% of the population of France is Muslim now with tendency of this percentage ever increasing due to both mass migration and mass breeding.

You could try reading my post before responding to it in bits and pieces.

I would not call it a "gimmick" which is why I asked you to explain this curious word choice.

Yes, that was my point. Thanks for demonstrating it... again.

Can you point what exactly you think is fascist? I do not think they seek to overthrow French constitution for example and set themselves up as dictatorial leaders. Or can you point out where they do?

You keep repeating me, why? I already said the win was a gimmick.

It's a product of French convoluted electoral system, just like Labour winning 2/3 of seats with 1/3 of the vote, but it is not a "gimmick".

Racism, intolerance, failed acts of austerity, the mistaken idea that life was utopian 60 years ago and we can get it back if we only get rid of all the new people?

I do not think it is racism to not want your country to be overrun by mass migrants from incompatible cultures like Afghanistan.
FN may be racist otherwise, but most of their voters are probably not. I think their popularity rests largely on the failure of mainstream parties to address the dangers of mass migration.

The real problem is, life is hard.

And ignoring the dangers of Muslim mass migration is really fucking stupid!

Yes Derec, I get it, you hate change. It scares you. You are frightened by it.

I do not hate all change. It is inevitable that things change, and some change is good. But some change is bad, even disastrous. We should all be afraid of things changing for the worse, and work to prevent things changing in that direction.

We hate China, especially for all their pollution and them having this fucked up idea that they are allowed to become competitive and risk our standing atop the globe.**

I do not "hate China" but I am opposed to their dictatorial government and many of the things it is doing - for example their environmental record is far worse than US. But China is an issue for another thread.

But the reality is, the greatest threat to life is not from the Muslims, it is the national Xians that want to return things to darker times.

I know the far left is islamophilic, but this is nonsense. Actually existing Islam is orders of magnitude worse than actually existing Christianity. Even in the US, and several orders of magnitude more in Europe.
How often do Christians do something like this?
Parents and uncle convicted of "honor killing" Pakistani teen in Italy for refusing arranged marriage