War with Venezuela

[Elixir]

I think iirc the word I saw used by one oil execs was "uninvestable".

Investment requires stability.

Trump and stability go together like fish and bicycles.

True. At this juncture, oil execs will say shit to pacify him, with no intent to follow through.

 

[Derec]

I think iirc the word I saw used by one oil execs was "uninvestable".

Investment requires stability.

Trump and stability go together like fish and bicycles.

Even Gloria Steinem later married a man. So, are you saying there is still hope for stability...

 

[Shadowy Man]

I think iirc the word I saw used by one oil execs was "uninvestable".

Investment requires stability.

Trump and stability go together like fish and bicycles.

Even Gloria Steinem later married a man. So, are you saying there is still hope for stability...

Once Trump is gone and if the US government starts operating with principles we may get stability.

 

[Derec]

So here comes Economist Ed Hirs reporting on a meeting of oil executives called by Trump; he offers perspective on Venezuela and its oil. It will take over $100 billion in investment to make Venezuela a major oil producer again.

I think that is realistic. It will be a major project to reverse the last few decades of Bolivarian mismanagement and neglect.

And however happy Venezuelans may be to be rid of Maduro, they won't be happy to see American boots on the ground even if they're just oil-workers' boots.

Realistically, it will have to be some sort of joint venture between PDVSA and foreign companies.

The video is 25 minutes long; I just skimmed it. His main point is that Venezuelan oil is NOT going to have value any time soon UNLESS there is a sudden upward surge in the price of oil!

Haven't watched the video either, so I am just replying to your summary.
But why would the increase in oil prices have to be sudden? Or even present? The development of Venezuelan oil production will not only take a lot of money, it will also take a lot of time. So it makes sense to start building up the capacity before the oil prices increase.
The current era of relatively low oil prices is a product of the shale revolution, where hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking" is used to liberate oil from low-permeability formations. It acts as a super-straw, allowing producers to drink their milkshake (in a manner of speaking) quickly.

That's why US, with its modest proven reserves and being decades past its original peak, was able to ramp up production to >10Mbbl, rivaling Saudi Arabia and Russia. But of course, drinking your milkshake quickly means it will be gone sooner. Then there is Saudi Arabia. Most of its production comes from fields that have been producing for >50 years, including Ghawar, which has been online since 1951 and has already produced >70 Gbbl of oil.
It is reasonable to assume that even with global demand falling due to EVs there will be an increase in oil price in the next 5 years as supply from players like US, Saudi Arabia and even Russia falls. Starting development of Venezuelan megaprojects would position it well to take advantage of other producers declining.

 

[Swammerdami]

And however happy Venezuelans may be to be rid of Maduro, they won't be happy to see American boots on the ground even if they're just oil-workers' boots.

... But why would the increase in oil prices have to be sudden? ...

Perhaps "soon" would make the key point better than "sudden." The theft of Venezuelan oil has little value to Trump if it won't even begin until the 2030s or '40s.

If oil companies are unwilling to invest the huge sums needed, the US taxpayers, led by their Saviour the Orange Brat, can gift a $100 billion or so to the biggest campaign donating oil companies the brave American oil companies seeking prosperity for hard-working Christian Americans.

They'll need expensive security of course. Kidnapping for ransom is big business in some Latin American countries, as will be violence against foreign thieves. Taxpayers will have the delightful choice of whether to pay for mercenaries or to turn the job over to Hegseth's beardless warriors.

Isn't conquering Panama on the MAGA To-Do List? Venezuela is conveniently situated to facilitate that.

 

[Swammerdami]

This 2-minute clip of ABC's Jonathon Karl reveals that Trump wanted military options against Venezuela in 2018. McMaster was ready to consult with Pentagon for attack plans but CoS Gen. John Kelly told McMaster not to pursue it. Sure enough, Trump immediately forgot about Venezuela.

But in Trump 2.0 there was no more "Dad didn't mean that."

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Discombobulator
Part of me says they just told this to Trump to keep him from disclosing anything sensitive.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Hong Kong company’s concession to operate Panama Canal ports is ruled unconstitutional

Panama’s Supreme Court ruled late Thursday that the concession held by a subsidiary of Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison Holdings to operate ports at either end of the Panama Canal is unconstitutional, an outcome that advances a U.S. aim to block any influence by China over the strategic waterway.

And in violation of the Donroe Doctrine...

In Beijing, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, told reporters that China would take all necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of “the Chinese company,” without elaborating on the potential steps.

Donald's not going to like that. You're upsetting the Donald.