What will be the October Surprise?

[SLD]

So I suspect we will have an October Surprise that will determine the election. The question is what will it be.

In 1968, Nixon sunk peace talks on Vietnam. In 1980, there is evidence that Reagan stopped an Iran hostage deal.

Now there is rumbling about Putin doing something to embarrass Biden, or make him appear weak. North Korea may create a serious crisis or a terrorist attack, thinly coordinated by Putin.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/unit...m_content=20240610&utm_term=FA Today - 112017

What will Trump do to stir the pot or prevent Biden from appearing a strong competent leader? Can Democrats prevent it?

Or could Biden be holding some key evidence about Trump that he won’t release until later. Evidence he was involved with Epstein in screwing little girls? Connections to Russian intelligence?

 

[TSwizzle]

I think there could be a big surprise before October. I have pretty well always thought Brandon would drop out before now and I think that is becoming ever more likely. However, with meth, blow and hooker fiend son Hunter possibly facing jail time, it could be enough to set the old guy over the edge and he has to withdraw due to ill health.

 

[Elixir]

However, with meth, blow and hooker fiend son Hunter possibly facing jail time, it could be enough to set the old guy over the edge and he has to withdraw due to ill health.

Problem is that none of that applies to the guy running for President - except the other guy- the Adderall addicted felonious election-rigging rapist that Joe Biden is running against.
And let’s not even talk about HIS coked-up devil spawn. They’re going to be brought up for REAL crimes.

 

[SLD]

There’s a significant probability that neither Trump or Biden will appear on the ballot this November.

But that’s not the definition of an October surprise.

 

[Swammerdami]

What is the definition of "October surprise"? Typically it is a deliberate attempt to injure the reputation of a candidate. More specifically it may take the form of deliberately harming the U.S. (or at least creating the impression of harm) to discourage voters from re-electing the incumbent.

Iran waiting until after Election Day 1980 to release its American hostages is the go-to example of October surprise. Is it now widely accepted that this was corruptly orchestrated by members of the incoming Reagan-Bush team? Any other famous October surprises? Have the Democrats ever perpetrated one?

There are several countries that are rooting for the fascists to win in the November Election: Russia, Saudi, North Korea and Netanyahu's Israel are the most obvious, but probably also Turkey, Hungary and China. (China isn't quite as malicious as the other pro-Trump countries but still benefits strongly from the implosion of its major competitor.)

So how will malevolent players like Vladimir Putin (de facto political chief of the GOP) and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (who has Jared Kushner in his pocket) exploit their powers to help Trump in November? Intensifying their wars might backfire.

But one conclusion is clear: Americans are a stupid people and many will vote based on the price they paid last time they filled their gasoline tank. Russia and Saudi Arabia are (by far) the world's biggest petroleum exporters and can essentially dictate supply and price. The price of Brent crude is currently $82, down from $120 two years ago. I think we can count on a higher price in October.

 

[AdamWho]

The price of Brent crude is currently $82, down from $120 two years ago. I think we can count on a higher price in October.

Prices drop after summer.

 

[bilby]

But that’s not the definition of an October surprise.

By definition, if it is predicted (in this thread, or elsewhere) before October, then it would no longer be an October Surprise.

 

[Patooka]

But that’s not the definition of an October surprise.

By definition, if it is predicted (in this thread, or elsewhere) before October, then it would no longer be an October Surprise.

Half of them are still going to vote for an orange Joffrey. You could scream it into their face and they'd still be surprised.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think there could be a big surprise before October. I have pretty well always thought Brandon would drop out before now and I think that is becoming ever more likely.

I remember how Hillary Clinton was also "suffering" from debilitating seizures and other ailments.

However, with meth, blow and hooker fiend son Hunter possibly facing jail time, it could be enough to set the old guy over the edge and he has to withdraw due to ill health.

Ever the optimist. Much like Trump isn't getting jail time for his felony, seems likely that Hunter won't as well.

 

[Elixir]

I remember how Hillary Clinton was also "suffering" from debilitating seizures and other ailments.

Lulz! Swiz may have been overdosing on the National Inquirer. He really seems to believe Joe is in worse mental shape than the shark battery guy.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The problem with Biden is he looks old (I mean he is old, but he looks it). The alt-right has needed to Veritass up some footage to make Biden look older and lesser.

Biden hasn't done poorly, and all things being equal, the tri-fecta of Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden, managed to do a lot with the very small majority they had.

The trouble for Biden is fair or not, there is a malaise among many Americans. You've got the alt-righters that'll march straight to Hell with Trump, the remaining Republicans that fear a tax increase, the younger generation that is needing to adapt to a differing economic situation than most of us came up in, and really young people that have a different worldview overall that many can't adapt their own vision to.

And then there is Dobbs. A Democrat outperformed by around 20 pts in the 6th District of OH special election last night. Toss an asterisk on that stat, but still, it sticks out. He lost, gerrymandered district to dilute Youngstown/Warren area, but that is a big turnaround. With Texas and Alabama and Idaho, etc... pushing hard to banish abortions still, I have to wonder whether Dobbs' influence will overshadow any potential October surprise.

 

[Elixir]

The problem with Biden is he looks old (I mean he is old, but he looks it).

I disagree. It's not how he looks, it's how he sounds. If he was capable of sounding as bombastic as incoherent Don does, the sheeples (who understand very little of what anyone says, regardless) would think he was making sense, even if he was reading recipes or rambling about sharks. But his speech impediment makes everything he says come out in a tone that would be appropriate for a streetcorner beggar on his second bottle of Muscatel. He could present the most brilliant solution to All The World's Problems™ and people like Swiz would only point out that he sounds like a doddering fool. Whereas Trump can loudly, clearly and unmistakeably deliver the most idiotic, vacuous tripe and those same people will eat it up as gospel Trooth, without pausing to consider that what he was saying was fucking insane.

 

[TSwizzle]

I think there could be a big surprise before October. I have pretty well always thought Brandon would drop out before now and I think that is becoming ever more likely.

I remember how Hillary Clinton was also "suffering" from debilitating seizures and other ailments.

I assume this is sarcasm. But if you think Brandon is not getting worse, 'tis you that is the optimist. The only way is down for Brandon.

However, with meth, blow and hooker fiend son Hunter possibly facing jail time, it could be enough to set the old guy over the edge and he has to withdraw due to ill health.

Ever the optimist. Much like Trump isn't getting jail time for his felony, seems likely that Hunter won't as well.

I agree, it is very unlikely Hunter will get any jail time. But this shameful episode and the thought of his precious son Beau (let's face it, Brandon can't keep things straight) going to jail could have an adverse effect on the old duffer making him even worse.

Newsom is warming up in the bullpen as I type.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

I think it seems likely the Dems are sitting on Project 2025 and will wait until late summer or sometime thereabout to really begin harping on it. While there have been stirrings about it in the news and it gets a mention here and there by the Dems, the ominous implications of it haven't received the attention it needs. That's not exactly an October surprise, but my guess is that it's part of the strategy going late into the election season.

What could be released about Trump's personal life or anything he's said that would hurt him at this point? Prior to 2016, even the GOP would've taken him down before he could get going, but somehow that all went by the wayside.

As for the Orange Menace/GOP, what are the Dems going to come up with? Those lunatics are full speed all day, every day. There is no bottom for them, but that's the problem. To the [incomprehensibly] undecideds, it has to be all background noise by now. Every goddamn day it's attack, fearmonger, attack, baseless and absurd allegations, attack, etc. Seems to me they've blown their wad. It's a show ran by clown children that doesn't have the patience or foresight to think about timing.

 

[Elixir]

The only way is down for Brandon.

Heres your boy six years ago - nowhere to go but up, yet he has not improved but rather, incredibly, become even more incoherent. If you heard this in Biden’s voice, you’d be convinced it couldn’t get worse. But you hear it in Trump’s voice and accept that it must make sense.



Oh, how I wish Cheato had the stones to show up at a debate. But he won’t. His animal instinct tells him accurately, that that way lies danger. Joe Biden terrifies him.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think there could be a big surprise before October. I have pretty well always thought Brandon would drop out before now and I think that is becoming ever more likely.

I remember how Hillary Clinton was also "suffering" from debilitating seizures and other ailments.

I assume this is sarcasm.

No, it was alleged that her health was failing in 2016.

But if you think Brandon is not getting worse, 'tis you that is the optimist. The only way is down for Brandon.

Well yes, he is in his 80s, he isn't getting any younger. This isn't a shock.

However, with meth, blow and hooker fiend son Hunter possibly facing jail time, it could be enough to set the old guy over the edge and he has to withdraw due to ill health.

Ever the optimist. Much like Trump isn't getting jail time for his felony, seems likely that Hunter won't as well.

I agree, it is very unlikely Hunter will get any jail time. But this shameful episode and the thought of his precious son Beau (let's face it, Brandon can't keep things straight) going to jail could have an adverse effect on the old duffer making him even worse.

Hunter being convicted on paperwork fraud is not exactly the bottom Hunter Biden hit.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The only way is down for Brandon.

Heres your boy six years ago - nowhere to go but up, yet he has not improved but rather, incredibly, become even more incoherent. If you heard this in Biden’s voice, you’d be convinced it couldn’t get worse. But you hear it in Trump’s voice and accept that it must make sense.

View attachment 46411

Oh, how I wish Cheato had the stones to show up at a debate. But he won’t. His animal instinct tells him accurately, that that way lies danger. Joe Biden terrifies him.

This is one of those, someone made it up right, type moments, because you couldn't believe Trump would be that long winded, poorly spoken... and won the fucking election. But apparently, that is one of the reasons these idiots vote for him.

 

[TSwizzle]

I think there could be a big surprise before October. I have pretty well always thought Brandon would drop out before now and I think that is becoming ever more likely.

I remember how Hillary Clinton was also "suffering" from debilitating seizures and other ailments.

I assume this is sarcasm.

No, it was alleged that her health was failing in 2016.

Really? She looks healthy to me. A very attractive woman back in her day. Can't think why her husband would be chasing skirt and hassling women as he did. But then again, who knows what goes on in other people's marriages.

But if you think Brandon is not getting worse, 'tis you that is the optimist. The only way is down for Brandon.

Well yes, he is in his 80s, he isn't getting any younger. This isn't a shock.

It's not about his age. It's about his mental and general decline which is becoming quite rapid. You know this of course because it is widely reported and an awful lot of voters are very concerned about Brandon's age.

However, with meth, blow and hooker fiend son Hunter possibly facing jail time, it could be enough to set the old guy over the edge and he has to withdraw due to ill health.

Ever the optimist. Much like Trump isn't getting jail time for his felony, seems likely that Hunter won't as well.

I agree, it is very unlikely Hunter will get any jail time. But this shameful episode and the thought of his precious son Beau (let's face it, Brandon can't keep things straight) going to jail could have an adverse effect on the old duffer making him even worse.

Hunter being convicted on paperwork fraud is not exactly the bottom Hunter Biden hit.

Hunter being tried in a very public manner, being convicted of a felony and facing possible jail time could weigh heavily on the already frail Brandon.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

I think there could be a big surprise before October. I have pretty well always thought Brandon would drop out before now and I think that is becoming ever more likely.

I remember how Hillary Clinton was also "suffering" from debilitating seizures and other ailments.

I assume this is sarcasm.

No, it was alleged that her health was failing in 2016.

Really? She looks healthy to me. A very attractive woman back in her day. Can't think why her husband would be chasing skirt and hassling women as he did. But then again, who knows what goes on in other people's marriages.

But if you think Brandon is not getting worse, 'tis you that is the optimist. The only way is down for Brandon.

Well yes, he is in his 80s, he isn't getting any younger. This isn't a shock.

It's not about his age. It's about his mental and general decline which is becoming quite rapid. You know this of course because it is widely reported and an awful lot of voters are very concerned about Brandon's age.

However, with meth, blow and hooker fiend son Hunter possibly facing jail time, it could be enough to set the old guy over the edge and he has to withdraw due to ill health.

Ever the optimist. Much like Trump isn't getting jail time for his felony, seems likely that Hunter won't as well.

I agree, it is very unlikely Hunter will get any jail time. But this shameful episode and the thought of his precious son Beau (let's face it, Brandon can't keep things straight) going to jail could have an adverse effect on the old duffer making him even worse.

Hunter being convicted on paperwork fraud is not exactly the bottom Hunter Biden hit.

Hunter being tried in a very public manner, being convicted of a felony and facing possible jail time could weigh heavily on the already frail Brandon.

That settles it. I will not be voting for Hunter Biden.

 

[Elixir]

It's about his mental and general decline

… which you cannot identify. Maybe your shark batteries are running low. Or, did you break your Elton John record?

Let’s see a Biden quote or two that rivals … well, let’s take the last thing, or ANY thing Trump says, for sheer nonsensical dementia-speak.

You keep harping, but have nothing in reality to back you up, other than “just look at him!” FYI, that is not an example of anything.