What will happen from the impeachment?

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

When the Senate goes to vote (assuming they do), what will happen as a consequence?

Since they need a super majority to convict, they won't get it. I think some Republicans may give in to appear to be patriots but not be disloyal to Trump. So, their compromise may be to agree to a censure, but a nothingburger censure saying that Trump had the appearance of conflict of interest.

BUT what's your opinion of how the Senate will vote?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think the worst that will happen for Trump is that the Senate will have a majority to convict, but not a super-majority. And I'm not even certain we'll get that much.

As per the norm, the White House is obstructing justice by keeping Mulvaney, Pompeo, Perry and others from testifying.

Trump is guilty as hell, but short of Trump having in his hands, a receipt indicating $391 million in military aid... cost... one television interview announcing investigation into Biden by Ukrainian President, they are going to be nothing but partisan.

This is maddening, after having to live through the entire Special Prosecutor bullshit during the Clinton Administration. 50 Republican Senators voted that Clinton committed an act of obstruction of justice in that farce. And we'll see the GOP commit to another farce.

 

[Elixir]

Nicole Wallace wrapping up the MSNBC Impeachment coverage (from memory, inexact quote):

"I used to say it all the time off the air during the Mueller investigation - It's going to take a dead Russian hooker at the bottom of the bed for the Republicans to change their minds. But now ... they'll say she died of natural causes."

 

[Toni]

This is just the investigation. It's not the actual impeachment.

IMO, it's extremely important that the investigation move to impeachment trial and in this case, hopefully conviction.

Here are the steps:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_States

At the federal level, the impeachment process is a three-step procedure.

First, the Congress investigates. This investigation typically begins in the House Judiciary Committee, but may begin elsewhere. For example, the Nixon impeachment inquiry began in the Senate Judiciary Committee. The facts that led to impeachment of Bill Clinton were first discovered in the course of an investigation by Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr.
Second, the House of Representatives must pass, by a simple majority of those present and voting, articles of impeachment, which constitute the formal allegation or allegations. Upon passage, the defendant has been "impeached".
Third, the Senate tries the accused. In the case of the impeachment of a president, the Chief Justice of the United States presides over the proceedings. For the impeachment of any other official, the Constitution is silent on who shall preside, suggesting that this role falls to the Senate's usual presiding officer, the President of the Senate who is also the Vice President of the United States. Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority vote of those present. The result of conviction is removal from office.

We're at Step 1 now.

 

[Rhea]

“ Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority vote of those present. ”


It is possible those Republicans seeking cover will not be present. If 14 don’t show, then only 5 need to cross the aisle, for example.

 

[Old Woman in Purple]

“ Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority vote of those present. ”


It is possible those Republicans seeking cover will not be present. If 14 don’t show, then only 5 need to cross the aisle, for example.

*perks up, depression lightening just a little bit....* I'd call it a longshot, but I'll take all the hope I can get!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

“ Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority vote of those present. ”


It is possible those Republicans seeking cover will not be present. If 14 don’t show, then only 5 need to cross the aisle, for example.

I doubt Roberts would allow it and McConnell is in charge, so that ain't happening.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

“ Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority vote of those present. ”


It is possible those Republicans seeking cover will not be present. If 14 don’t show, then only 5 need to cross the aisle, for example.

I doubt Roberts would allow it and McConnell is in charge, so that ain't happening.

I don't think republicans generally want Roberts to preside over this thing. He's the republican appointee turncoat that said Obamacare is constitutional. Lots of republicans, particularly the diehard fascists, hate Roberts with the same amount of venom they hate Clinton. It's as if Hillary will be presiding over proceedings in the senate. This is not something Senate republicans want to come about and is why they are fighting so hard to see that it does not happen. They don't control Roberts and they know it.

Trumpo and his lieutenants will target him next if it goes to the Senate so it's gotta go to the Senate if for no other reason.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

“ Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority vote of those present. ”


It is possible those Republicans seeking cover will not be present. If 14 don’t show, then only 5 need to cross the aisle, for example.

I doubt Roberts would allow it and McConnell is in charge, so that ain't happening.

I don't think republicans generally want Roberts to preside over this thing. He's the republican appointee turncoat that said Obamacare is constitutional. Lots of republicans, particularly the diehard fascists, hate Roberts with the same amount of venom they hate Clinton. It's as if Hillary will be presiding over proceedings in the senate. This is not something Senate republicans want to come about and is why they are fighting so hard to see that it does not happen. They don't control Roberts and they know it.

Trumpo and his lieutenants will target him next if it goes to the Senate so it's gotta go to the Senate if for no other reason.

Roberts is the least of their worries. It is the moderate Republicans (the two or three in the Senate) that can help provide a majority vote. It won't boot Trump from the White House, but the optics of the Democrat impeachment receiving a majority vote in the Senate isn't good. The GOP have enough issues trying to spin what is public record now, forget trying to spin losing a majority vote in the Senate while holding the majority of seats.

The Democrats need four votes in the Senate. Sen. Collins is doomed to losing in Maine, so she seems likely. Sen. Windsock in Utah definitely is a threat, but as we know, he is a windsock and changes his position every second of the day, in fact I bet he could vote 'present', if allowed. I'd say Sen. Doug Jones (D) is a dead man walking so he is free to vote appropriately. Sen. Cory Gardner is on the edge and likely facing a major uphill battle in Colorado, so he is up in the air. Sen. Tillis in North Carolina appears to be tacking to the right. Sen. McSally appears to be doing likewise, which will likely end her short Senate career. This leaves us with Sen. Ernst... who isn't looking at an uphill battle for re-election, but it isn't a cake walk either. So there are 5 or 6 votes that could potentially be up in the air.

 

[SLD]

Here's why nothing will happen:

“Democrats' 'crumbling' impeachment inquiry 'reeks of political desperation'”

That’s the Fox News headline for today.

 

[funinspace]

I don't think the Repugs will even step up to a censure. They have had plenty of opportunities to essentially censure him, by overriding him on some bill that FFvC was clearly on the wrong side of an issue. And that would have also given the Dotard a warning to not go too far...

I don't think republicans generally want Roberts to preside over this thing. He's the republican appointee turncoat that said Obamacare is constitutional. Lots of republicans, particularly the diehard fascists, hate Roberts with the same amount of venom they hate Clinton. It's as if Hillary will be presiding over proceedings in the senate. This is not something Senate republicans want to come about and is why they are fighting so hard to see that it does not happen. They don't control Roberts and they know it.

Trumpo and his lieutenants will target him next if it goes to the Senate so it's gotta go to the Senate if for no other reason.

Roberts is the least of their worries. It is the moderate Republicans (the two or three in the Senate) that can help provide a majority vote. It won't boot Trump from the White House, but the optics of the Democrat impeachment receiving a majority vote in the Senate isn't good. The GOP have enough issues trying to spin what is public record now, forget trying to spin losing a majority vote in the Senate while holding the majority of seats.

The Democrats need four votes in the Senate. Sen. Collins is doomed to losing in Maine, so she seems likely. Sen. Windsock in Utah definitely is a threat, but as we know, he is a windsock and changes his position every second of the day, in fact I bet he could vote 'present', if allowed. I'd say Sen. Doug Jones (D) is a dead man walking so he is free to vote appropriately. Sen. Cory Gardner is on the edge and likely facing a major uphill battle in Colorado, so he is up in the air. Sen. Tillis in North Carolina appears to be tacking to the right. Sen. McSally appears to be doing likewise, which will likely end her short Senate career. This leaves us with Sen. Ernst... who isn't looking at an uphill battle for re-election, but it isn't a cake walk either. So there are 5 or 6 votes that could potentially be up in the air.

Mitt Romney is another possible flip, as he certainly doesn't have to worry about threats from FFvC's circus in Utah.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Acquittal = certain. So, if Trump won't be flushed out of our society by the Senate, what good can come of impeaching him?
1) At the very least, it reasserts Congress as a coequal branch and it censures the abuse of power of which T is clearly guilty. (I know, if he gets reinstated as Pres he'll be even worse and even more blatant and abusive. I know.)
2) It may do substantial political damage to the GOP, which it so richly deserves. If 51% of the people have been credibly polled as thinking T should go -- and if 70% think his "perfect call" was improper -- then the party that slavishly coddles him and repeats his obnoxious delusions should suffer for it. The Republican brand should look debauched and hypocritical. About time!! (And, of course, it should damage T in the 2020 campaign. Let America do the flushing if the Senate won't. But keep pushing the handle til the whole thing goes down.)

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't think the Repugs will even step up to a censure. They have had plenty of opportunities to essentially censure him, by overriding him on some bill that FFvC was clearly on the wrong side of an issue. And that would have also given the Dotard a warning to not go too far...

I don't think republicans generally want Roberts to preside over this thing. He's the republican appointee turncoat that said Obamacare is constitutional. Lots of republicans, particularly the diehard fascists, hate Roberts with the same amount of venom they hate Clinton. It's as if Hillary will be presiding over proceedings in the senate. This is not something Senate republicans want to come about and is why they are fighting so hard to see that it does not happen. They don't control Roberts and they know it.

Trumpo and his lieutenants will target him next if it goes to the Senate so it's gotta go to the Senate if for no other reason.

Roberts is the least of their worries. It is the moderate Republicans (the two or three in the Senate) that can help provide a majority vote. It won't boot Trump from the White House, but the optics of the Democrat impeachment receiving a majority vote in the Senate isn't good. The GOP have enough issues trying to spin what is public record now, forget trying to spin losing a majority vote in the Senate while holding the majority of seats.

The Democrats need four votes in the Senate. Sen. Collins is doomed to losing in Maine, so she seems likely. Sen. Windsock in Utah definitely is a threat, but as we know, he is a windsock and changes his position every second of the day, in fact I bet he could vote 'present', if allowed. I'd say Sen. Doug Jones (D) is a dead man walking so he is free to vote appropriately. Sen. Cory Gardner is on the edge and likely facing a major uphill battle in Colorado, so he is up in the air. Sen. Tillis in North Carolina appears to be tacking to the right. Sen. McSally appears to be doing likewise, which will likely end her short Senate career. This leaves us with Sen. Ernst... who isn't looking at an uphill battle for re-election, but it isn't a cake walk either. So there are 5 or 6 votes that could potentially be up in the air.

Mitt Romney is another possible flip, as he certainly doesn't have to worry about threats from FFvC's circus in Utah.

You misspelled Windsock.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Nothing is going to happen as a result of it. The only point of the impeachment is to get all the crimes Trump committed out into the public forum and have the GOP members of Congress on the record supporting him for committing those crimes so that this can be used as a bludgeon against them in the next election. This is still a very good thing, but the process of impeachment was written with the assumption that the Senators would act like responsible adults who care about their constitutional duties as opposed to being afraid of the scary orange man sending a nasty tweet about them and that was a bad assumption on their part.

 

[funinspace]

I don't think the Repugs will even step up to a censure. They have had plenty of opportunities to essentially censure him, by overriding him on some bill that FFvC was clearly on the wrong side of an issue. And that would have also given the Dotard a warning to not go too far...


Mitt Romney is another possible flip, as he certainly doesn't have to worry about threats from FFvC's circus in Utah.

You misspelled Windsock.

LOL...that was a loud swooshing sound over my head...

 

[James Brown]

Nothing is going to happen as a result of it. The only point of the impeachment is to get all the crimes Trump committed out into the public forum and have the GOP members of Congress on the record supporting him for committing those crimes so that this can be used as a bludgeon against them in the next election. This is still a very good thing, but the process of impeachment was written with the assumption that the Senators would act like responsible adults who care about their constitutional duties as opposed to being afraid of the scary orange man sending a nasty tweet about them and that was a bad assumption on their part.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but not all Senators will have an election in 2020, only a third of them.

So I can see the Republican Senators up for election in 2020 voting against impeachment ("Law and order? Who cares--gotta keep my job!") But Senators not up for election until 2024 can vote for impeachment and be confident that four years from now their constituents won't remember what went down. Or their voters will decide that they were those rare Republicans who never really liked Trump but wanted to give him a chance for a little while.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Nothing is going to happen as a result of it. The only point of the impeachment is to get all the crimes Trump committed out into the public forum and have the GOP members of Congress on the record supporting him for committing those crimes so that this can be used as a bludgeon against them in the next election. This is still a very good thing, but the process of impeachment was written with the assumption that the Senators would act like responsible adults who care about their constitutional duties as opposed to being afraid of the scary orange man sending a nasty tweet about them and that was a bad assumption on their part.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but not all Senators will have an election in 2020, only a third of them.

So I can see the Republican Senators up for election in 2020 voting against impeachment ("Law and order? Who cares--gotta keep my job!") But Senators not up for election until 2024 can vote for impeachment and be confident that four years from now their constituents won't remember what went down. Or their voters will decide that they were those rare Republicans who never really liked Trump but wanted to give him a chance for a little while.

Regardless, that's the system that your silly country put in place. They have no obligation to care even slightly about any crimes that the President committed and the only way to hold them accountable for their actions, or lack thereof, is in the next election. They were trying to put a governmental system in place to avoid the monarchy that they'd just left and they failed miserably.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think ultimately, the firing of Trump will hinge on, of all people, John Bolton. While the GOP has shown an incredible amount of tenacity in giving the truth the finger, I find it extremely hard to believe (the GOP however has shown themselves up to the task) that they would bad mouth John Bolton.

Though, it is possible to do the 'It was wrong, but not impeachable' defense still... Bolton likely has the access and knowledge to make it much harder to suggest it isn't impeachable. It appeared he was attempting to shield his own people from this garbage.

The oddity that it is for liberals to hope Bolton steps up to the plate is almost head exploding type stuff. But being the former National Security Adviser who quit/was fired amidst this very scandal, well... yeah... the political landscape in DC has become bizarro.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

I think ultimately, the firing of Trump will hinge on, of all people, John Bolton. While the GOP has shown an incredible amount of tenacity in giving the truth the finger, I find it extremely hard to believe (the GOP however has shown themselves up to the task) that they would bad mouth John Bolton.

Though, it is possible to do the 'It was wrong, but not impeachable' defense still... Bolton likely has the access and knowledge to make it much harder to suggest it isn't impeachable. It appeared he was attempting to shield his own people from this garbage.

The oddity that it is for liberals to hope Bolton steps up to the plate is almost head exploding type stuff. But being the former National Security Adviser who quit/was fired amidst this very scandal, well... yeah... the political landscape in DC has become bizarro.

He doesn't have the balls. At best, he would try to salvage his own legacy, but in a way that stops just short of imperiling his future employment options, which are entirely depended upon sucking Trump's cock. Being a hero to Democrats would mean he'd be a pariah to anyone who would potentially hire him, so it's not likely his ego will trump a future paycheck, but it's possible.

He would certainly be in good company and it would be an excellent way for him to redeem the entire intelligence community and diplomatic corps--basically all of the real people who do the real jobs in our government--that have been forced to sit in grated silence while a traitor President constantly shits on their heads to cover his own crimes.

Even if the rumors are true (that he's writing a book), he'd want to save any truly heavy bombshells for the book in order to get Dems to buy it too, so, Hope springs eternal. It's Crosby who died young.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Nothing is going to happen as a result of it. The only point of the impeachment is to get all the crimes Trump committed out into the public forum and have the GOP members of Congress on the record supporting him for committing those crimes so that this can be used as a bludgeon against them in the next election. This is still a very good thing, but the process of impeachment was written with the assumption that the Senators would act like responsible adults who care about their constitutional duties as opposed to being afraid of the scary orange man sending a nasty tweet about them and that was a bad assumption on their part.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but not all Senators will have an election in 2020, only a third of them.

So I can see the Republican Senators up for election in 2020 voting against impeachment ("Law and order? Who cares--gotta keep my job!") But Senators not up for election until 2024 can vote for impeachment and be confident that four years from now their constituents won't remember what went down. Or their voters will decide that they were those rare Republicans who never really liked Trump but wanted to give him a chance for a little while.

Regardless, that's the system that your silly country put in place. They have no obligation to care even slightly about any crimes that the President committed and the only way to hold them accountable for their actions, or lack thereof, is in the next election. They were trying to put a governmental system in place to avoid the monarchy that they'd just left and they failed miserably.

Well, to be fair, it took almost 250 years for it to "fail miserably"--and the jury is still out and the system is working precisely as it was intended, we're just still in the middle of it--so, not sure that's an accurate assessment, but point taken.

What the alternative is, however, is unclear, short of simply rounding up every Republican and jettisoning their worthless asses into the sun or otherwise genetically modifying future generations to have more empathy and less date rape.