What's the fuss about recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital?

[Jokodo]

A glaring factual error in your first statement. The UN partition plan called for Jerusalem to maintain a special status as an internationally administered zone, neither under Jewish nor Arab administration.

Why would you expect people to take you serious when you can't be bothered to read up on publicly available basic facts?

I was talking about what actually happened. The plan was for it to be independent but the Arabs wouldn't accept that.

Sorry, you can't wriggle out like that. You were clearly talking about the UN partition plan. We know that because you talk about the result of the 1948 armistice in the next line. Also, what "actually happened" anytime before 1967 clearly isn't "Jerusalem entirely to Israel".

 

[Jokodo]

And Palestinians are free to come and go--it's just their passage through Israel that's restricted. Palestinian lands aren't enclaves, they all have other borders.

Incorrect. There is exactly one border crossing between the West Bank and Jordan ( Allenby_Bridge), and it's operated by the Israeli Airport Authority. And there's also exactly one border crossing from Gaza to Egypt (Rafah) which is frequently and for long times closed to all traffic, often under implicit pressure by Israel. And the Israeli navy blocks ships trying to enter Gaza, which, assuming Israel no longer claims Gaza as it proclaims, constitutes piracy under any valid definition of the term.

A great deal of the land occupied by Jews in Jerusalem was stolen.

"East Jerusalem" is the portion that was stolen by the Arabs and recaptured by Israel.

By the same logic, you could say '"West Jerusalem" is the portion stolen by Israel even earlier than the rest'. Because, unlike what you keep implying, there was never a plan that assigned all of Jerusalem to Israel.

It is a brutal repressive ugly nation.

While it's not exactly a shining star it's still vastly above everyone around it.

This is relevant why?

 

[Jokodo]

Israel has been conducting it's own little private holocaust for decades.

The real Holocaust greatly cut the Jewish population.

The population in Gaza and the West Bank has been growing.

Saying you are better than the Nazi's is not much of a claim.

Imagine how many more Palestinians there would be if Israel had not killed so many and oppressed so many for so long?

<...>

Almost certainly, fewer. When a nation prospers, birth rates go down - it's called the demographic transition. Look at the surrounding countries' total fertility rates (TFR, mostly 2015 World Bank estimates):
Lebanon: 1.7
(West Bank Arabs: 2.8)
Syria: 2.9
(Israel: 3.1)
(West Bank all: 3.2)
Egypt and Jordan: 3.3
(Gaza: 4.2)
(West Bank Jewish settlers: 5.1 link, page 6)

If the Gaza strip hadn't been kept underdeveloped on purpose, their fertility rates would probably be lower than Israel's by now! The West Bank's fertility rates already are basically the same as Israel's, and the West Bank Jewish settler community (with a large ultra-orthodox segment) has higher rates than the Gaza strip as is.

 

[Jokodo]

It would not mean the end of the State of Israel. It would mean the end of the unassailable Jewish majority; Jews would still be the majority population but no by much, and any successful political parties would have to work with Christian and Muslim Israelis in order to govern. In time it might mean that Israel's character would be secular instead of Jewish.

It would be hardline Islamic, not secular. (...)

How is this going to work, mathematically?
The Palestinian Territorries population is 4.55 million, including Jewish settlers in the West Bank. The population of Israel is 8.5 million, including Israeli Arabs. Fertility rates in the Palestinian Territorries are falling, while they are rising in Israel mostly due to the rising share of the Ultraorthodox segment of the population.

In fact, if Israel wants to maintain its secular character, it arguably has to give citizenship rights to the Palestinians to balance the growing influence of the ultraorthodox.

 

[Ford]

In fact, if Israel wants to maintain its secular character, it arguably has to give citizenship rights to the Palestinians to balance the growing influence of the ultraorthodox.

Understand that you're talking to a person who is for all intents and purposes a Zionist. Loren thinks the Palestinians are all hard-line Islamists who must be pushed into the sea for the greater good of Greater Israel.

 

[untermensche]

Saying you are better than the Nazi's is not much of a claim.

Imagine how many more Palestinians there would be if Israel had not killed so many and oppressed so many for so long?

<...>

Almost certainly, fewer. When a nation prospers, birth rates go down - it's called the demographic transition. Look at the surrounding countries' total fertility rates (TFR, mostly 2015 World Bank estimates):
Lebanon: 1.7
(West Bank Arabs: 2.8)
Syria: 2.9
(Israel: 3.1)
(West Bank all: 3.2)
Egypt and Jordan: 3.3
(Gaza: 4.2)
(West Bank Jewish settlers: 5.1 link, page 6)

If the Gaza strip hadn't been kept underdeveloped on purpose, their fertility rates would probably be lower than Israel's by now! The West Bank's fertility rates already are basically the same as Israel's, and the West Bank Jewish settler community (with a large ultra-orthodox segment) has higher rates than the Gaza strip as is.

As people become educated and comfortable birth rates go down.

Israel is preventing this from happening.

But that does not mean the population will decrease.

What prevents that in Palestinian lands is a brutal occupier. Who would willfully put themselves under such oppression?

 

[Jokodo]

Saying you are better than the Nazi's is not much of a claim.

Imagine how many more Palestinians there would be if Israel had not killed so many and oppressed so many for so long?

<...>

Almost certainly, fewer. When a nation prospers, birth rates go down - it's called the demographic transition. Look at the surrounding countries' total fertility rates (TFR, mostly 2015 World Bank estimates):
Lebanon: 1.7
(West Bank Arabs: 2.8)
Syria: 2.9
(Israel: 3.1)
(West Bank all: 3.2)
Egypt and Jordan: 3.3
(Gaza: 4.2)
(West Bank Jewish settlers: 5.1 link, page 6)

If the Gaza strip hadn't been kept underdeveloped on purpose, their fertility rates would probably be lower than Israel's by now! The West Bank's fertility rates already are basically the same as Israel's, and the West Bank Jewish settler community (with a large ultra-orthodox segment) has higher rates than the Gaza strip as is.

As people become educated and comfortable birth rates go down.

Israel is preventing this from happening.

But that does not mean the population will decrease.

What prevents that in Palestinian lands is a brutal occupier. Who would willfully put themselves under such oppression?

What are you trying to say here?
What does the occupation prevent, and how? And what does this have to do with anything I said?

 

[untermensche]

As people become educated and comfortable birth rates go down.

Israel is preventing this from happening.

But that does not mean the population will decrease.

What prevents that in Palestinian lands is a brutal occupier. Who would willfully put themselves under such oppression?

What are you trying to say here?
What does the occupation prevent, and how? And what does this have to do with anything I said?

I make my own comments. I am only addressing you because you addressed me.

You do neglect several factors. For one those population figures represent nations that have not been denied resources and do not face another nation constantly taking land from them.

Palestinians are being squeezed artificially into small patches, mainly in the West Bank, but those in Gaza are being squeezed too.

If Palestinians are given freedom from their oppressor and are allowed to build up resources and fully expand into all the land they rightfully own then the population could easily grow before it stabilizes due to the factors that tend to stabilize a population at a certain point.

It is absurd to conclude at this point that the population is likely to decrease.

 

[barbos]

Jerusalem should be given its original name - Jebus and Canaanite state should be established there.

 

[Jokodo]

As people become educated and comfortable birth rates go down.

Israel is preventing this from happening.

But that does not mean the population will decrease.

What prevents that in Palestinian lands is a brutal occupier. Who would willfully put themselves under such oppression?

What are you trying to say here?
What does the occupation prevent, and how? And what does this have to do with anything I said?

I make my own comments. I am only addressing you because you addressed me.

You do neglect several factors. For one those population figures represent nations that have not been denied resources and do not face another nation constantly taking land from them.

Palestinians are being squeezed artificially into small patches, mainly in the West Bank, but those in Gaza are being squeezed too.

If Palestinians are given freedom from their oppressor and are allowed to build up resources and fully expand into all the land they rightfully own then the population could easily grow before it stabilizes due to the factors that tend to stabilize a population at a certain point.

It is absurd to conclude at this point that the population is likely to decrease.

What is absurd is your lack of understanding of demography.

The single best confirmed and oft-repeated fact is that, when a nation prospers and develops, birth rates go down. You can argue all you want that it sounds intuitively logical that people wouldn't want to throw their kids into a cruel world and thus have lower birthrates under dire conditions, but reality begs to differ: That's simply not how humans work. The fertility rate among Palestinians in Gaza is now higher than that in any of the neighbouring Arab countries. Palestinians aren't space aliens, they are humans with a culture and, until recently, history similar to their neighbours, so the default assumption should be that given similar conditions, their fertility rate and other demographic indicator would be similar to their neighbours, and probably closer to Lebanon's or Syria's than to Egypt's. You seem to be claiming the opposite. This would essentially require magic.

Also, I did not cite population figures and I did not claim that the population would decrease, only that it would grow more slowly.

 

[untermensche]

Please cite the data of population changes after a population has been released from brutal oppression.

If you have none you have no point.

 

[Jokodo]

Please cite the data of population changes after a population has been released from brutal oppression.

If you have none you have no point.

So you prefer to believe that the Palestinians' TFR - already the highest in the region - would be even higher (rather than more in line with everyone else in the region) if their conditions were more similar to their neighbours?

Yes, that's magical thinking.

But yeah, why not: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demog...ral_population_growth_of_Spain_since_1950.png

The birthrate in Spain dropped to half in the first 10 years of democracy - and that's not just part of a general trend in Western industrial nations, the drop starts over a decade after similar drops in Northern Europe and North America.

 

[untermensche]

Still waiting for any data that would be similar to the situation with the Palestinians.

Most likely if they were given their freedom the population would increase and then eventually stabilize.

 

[Jokodo]

Still waiting for any data that would be similar to the situation with the Palestinians.

Says the person who hasn't presented any evidence other than their gut feeling.

Most likely if they were given their freedom the population would increase and then eventually stabilize.

Yes, but that's really not the point, as it's going to happen one way or the other. The point is that you were claiming that the population is currently, due to the occupation, growing slower than it would otherwise. This is clearly not the case. I have by now explained the reasons why we know this. If you're willing to learn, you can read my posts again and ask for clarification if there's anything you don't understand.

 

[Jayjay]

Population growth in Gaza, West Bank as well as abroad among Palestinian refugees is not Israel's fault, but it nonetheless maginifies the problems Israel's occupation and blockade (and the Arab treatment of refugees) causes Palestinians. Twice as many people, twice as many victims.

 

[untermensche]

Still waiting for any data that would be similar to the situation with the Palestinians.

Says the person who hasn't presented any evidence other than their gut feeling.

Most likely if they were given their freedom the population would increase and then eventually stabilize.

Yes, but that's really not the point, as it's going to happen one way or the other. The point is that you were claiming that the population is currently, due to the occupation, growing slower than it would otherwise. This is clearly not the case. I have by now explained the reasons why we know this. If you're willing to learn, you can read my posts again and ask for clarification if there's anything you don't understand.

Actually I asked a question.

I wondered what would happen to the population when the oppression ends.

And I claimed it would increase.

And I guess you now agree.

 

[Jokodo]

Says the person who hasn't presented any evidence other than their gut feeling.



Yes, but that's really not the point, as it's going to happen one way or the other. The point is that you were claiming that the population is currently, due to the occupation, growing slower than it would otherwise. This is clearly not the case. I have by now explained the reasons why we know this. If you're willing to learn, you can read my posts again and ask for clarification if there's anything you don't understand.

Actually I asked a question.

I wondered what would happen to the population when the oppression ends.

And I claimed it would increase.

And I guess you now agree.

Increase relative to what? In post #80, you were quite explicit that the population would be higher and/or growing faster than it is without the occupation. That's quite a different claim from saying that the growth would continue to be positive without the occupation.

So I have to ask, increase relative to what? To today's population? Sure, but that not newsworthy. The population is already increasing. Increase at a higher rate than today/than if the oppression doesn't end? Almost certainly not!

So, to answer your comment in #80:

Imagine how many more Palestinians there would be if Israel had not killed so many and oppressed so many for so long?

Actually, there would be fewer because Palestine would be more developed and thus further along the  demographic transition. Read it up, it's an interesting concept and pretty relevant in this kind of discussions.

(Ironically, Loren Pechtel might very well agree with your flawed assumptions about a rocketing Palestinian population, even if his conclusions are different.)

 

[untermensche]

Imagine how many more Palestinians there would be if Israel had not killed so many and oppressed so many for so long?

Actually, there would be fewer because Palestine would be more developed and thus further along the  demographic transition. Read it up, it's an interesting concept and pretty relevant in this kind of discussions.

You have no idea what the size of Palestine would be. You would have no idea how many cities they would have. You have no idea how many people would immigrate there.

You have no statistics to describe what would happen and have no idea what would happen.

 

[Jokodo]

Imagine how many more Palestinians there would be if Israel had not killed so many and oppressed so many for so long?

Actually, there would be fewer because Palestine would be more developed and thus further along the  demographic transition. Read it up, it's an interesting concept and pretty relevant in this kind of discussions.

You have no idea what the size of Palestine would be. You would have no idea how many cities they would have. You have no idea how many people would immigrate there.

You have no statistics to describe what would happen and have no idea what would happen.

I think the pronoun you are looking for is "I".

 

[untermensche]

You have no idea what the size of Palestine would be. You would have no idea how many cities they would have. You have no idea how many people would immigrate there.

You have no statistics to describe what would happen and have no idea what would happen.

I think the pronoun you are looking for is "I".

Yes. You have run out of things to say.

How many cities would exist in the West Bank if Israel stopped it's oppression?