Who will be the 2016 Republican nominee? (Jan. 2016 edition)

[Derec]

Companion thread to Who will be the 2016 Democratic nominee? (Jan. 2016 edition). I ran the same poll in December 2014 and 20% said Jeb Bush and 16% said Scott Walker, who isn't even in the race. I did not even think to include Donald Trump nor did anybody mention him in the thread.
I think now that the we are nearing the Iowa caucuses we need to revisit the poll again. Unlike with Dems, there are still many candidates:

Gov. Jeb Bush (FL) - almost 63

"And here is my running mate ..."
He was supposed to be the establishment candidate, governor from a swing state with a huge war chest. But the voters aren't biting. Seems to be hoping for John McCain-esque post-Iowa resurrection in time for Easter.

Dr. Ben Carson, M.D. (MD) - 65

"Like a surgeon, cutting for the very first time ..."
Ultimate outsider, ran high in polls for a while but was brought down by rather bizarre statements and claims.

Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) - 54

"Are you going to finish that?"
Governor from a blue state, NJ-shaped flag pin aficionado, unpopular at home, spends his time running away from his more moderate positions like gun control. Surprisingly still at the adult table.

Sen. Ted Cruz (TX) - 46

"I don't like green eggs and ham ..."
Emerged as conservatives' favorite in recent weeks despite questions about eligibility. Strong evangelical with a Harvard background. Also relatively young.

iCarly Fiorina (CA) - 62

"Looks like the Donald."
Former HP CEO with lackluster performance from California. Made waves in the first kiddie debate and graduated to the adult debate but could not carry the momentum. Stumbled over the Planned Parenthood video gaffe.

Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR) - 61

"I am Mike Huckabee and I approve ... wait!
Iowa sensation of 2008 is kiddie table also-ran in 2016. Not much hope for this candidate from Hope, AR!

Gov. John Kasich (OH) - 64

"Life is like a box of chocolates ..."
In a normal campaign the front-runner status would be his to lose - governor of an important swing state, chairman of the House budget committee, state senator. Yet in 22016 he is hanging at the edge of the adult table.

Sen. Rand Paul (KY) - 54

"Buh bye!"
His brand of combining some libertarian ideas with rather standard paleoconservatism failed to catch on. He didn't even manage to persuade many of his dad's fans. Got booted from the main debate, but took his marbles and went home rather than go to the kiddie table.

Sen. Marco Rubio (FL) - 45

"Wasn't I supposed to be against pork?"
Positions himself as the more sane youngster Hispanic senator of the class of 2010. Also actually born in the US. Tries to have it both ways on immigration though. A bit of a motor mouth - should take whatever downer Carson is taking.

Sen. Rick Santorum (PA) - 58

Glitter attack!
Seriously, why is he even still in the race?

Donald Trump (NY) - 70

"I challenge Bernie Sanders to a duel of the hair!"
Real estate developer, billionaire, 800 lbs gorilla in the room. Establishment's biggest nightmare and "jerkass has a point" made flesh.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You forgot: An asshole.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

My Powerball winnings are all placed on Rubio.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I am going with Jeb Bush not because of any polls but instead because of his name-recognition and establishment support.

 

[Derec]

I am going with Jeb Bush not because of any polls but instead because of his name-recognition and establishment support.

A bold choice.

 

[skepticalbip]

I am going with Jeb Bush not because of any polls but instead because of his name-recognition and establishment support.

You are right that the establishment likes him and he certainly has name recognition because of his dad and brother. However Jeb's problem is that a lot if not most Republican voters are pissed at the establishment and don't like the idea of setting up a dynastic rule.

I don't have a clue who will come out the other side of this cluster fuck but the greatest fear of the Democrats that I know is that it will be Rubio.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I am going with Jeb Bush not because of any polls but instead because of his name-recognition and establishment support.

He has spent over $50 millions and yet only has 5% support. I think he has been undone and is pretty much dead in the water. He has name recognition alright, but it seems of the opposite effect he wanted. He's about as popular as Jar Jar Binks.

 

[ZiprHead]

"You gonna finish that?" Heh heh. Good one.

 

[Sarpedon]

I voted for trump despite being torn by him and cruz. Some of you may remember I thought it would be Walker, so no one is more surprised and confused by this election than I am.

The reasons I went with Trump instead of Cruz:
Cruz's best skill is in debate, but now the debates are over and he failed to knock out Trump.
Cruz compares poorly to Trump in the one on one or one on crowd charm game. Like many demogogues, Trump can turn on the charm when he likes, and the rage when he likes, and knows when to do each. Cruz has this oily personality, dead eyes, and shrill Michael Jackson voice that hinders him when he's by himself and can't use his skills to run rings around a blundering debate opponent.
I believe that the racist wing of the party is ultimately stronger than the religious wing. Trump has the racist wing locked up, and stands in good stead to court the business wing. Cruz has banked all on the religious wing, and I don't think that will be enough.

As for the others, I don't think any of them has a chance. People have been saying the establishment wing will coalesce any day now for months, and it doesn't. If it doesn't happen, like, right away during the primaries, it will be more likely that establishment voters will jump ship, going with the less objectionable of the two front runners (which will probably split them evenly) or even tempt them to non-participation or even the democrats.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I am going with Jeb Bush not because of any polls but instead because of his name-recognition and establishment support.

You are right that the establishment likes him and he certainly has name recognition because of his dad and brother. However Jeb's problem is that a lot if not most Republican voters are pissed at the establishment and don't like the idea of setting up a dynastic rule.

I don't have a clue who will come out the other side of this cluster fuck but the greatest fear of the Democrats that I know is that it will be Rubio.

Ya, I agree. Jeb looked like the best candidate on paper at the beginning of the campaign, but his campaign itself has been a dud and he's not resonating with the voters. Also, no matter how much he tries to drive the conversation away from the point, his name is Jeb Bush, not just Jeb. After the disaster of his brother, people aren't ready for another one of those.

I think that after Iowa and New Hampshire, the establishment is going to convince all the various establishment candidates but one to drop out and let that support be focused behind someone they feel can win, particlarly if Trump takes one of those. I think Rubio has the best shot at being that guy.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

However Jeb's problem is that a lot if not most Republican voters ... don't like the idea of setting up a dynastic rule.

I have snipped a couple of things from your response because I'd like to deal with this single point for now.

One of my starting premises for my conclusion is that people are stupid. I'd like to submit the following as evidence:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emKHtJNdW5c

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I honestly haven't a clue. I thought Bush / Kasich seemed like a pretty safe bet, but the press wouldn't drop Iraq and Bush clearly forgot how to campaign. Also the Trump campaign has completely re-written the rules of campaigning in the Republican Party. The top two guys are hated by the RNC and Trump seems to have half a lock on the loonies, and Cruz a lock on the evangelicals. The politically conservatives may be starting to know what it feels like to a liberal... with no candidate of note supporting their views.

We are left with Kasich, Bush, Trump, Rubio, Cruz as the five "best" to win the nomination. But the road to the nomination is fuzzy. Most of the primaries are proportional vote. Trump and Cruz could be the opening for a third candidate in a brokered convention. If they split the delegates enough, the Super Delegates could over power a Kasich like candidate through (ie the small guy, but establishment, and with a good enough "conservative" record). But do the numbers even support that?

There are 2470 Republican delegates, with 437 being Super Delegates. The magic number is 1236 to win a majority. If the Super Delegates do their own thing, that means a second or third string nominee needs 799 delegates plus every Super Delegate to win. That means about 40% of the delegates is needed for the Supers to be able to push over the second or third string nominee. It seems so unlikely that such a thing would be possible, as if Cruz and Trump split the delegates, they'll be standing at 40%, which the remaining would be around 20%. This means a third candidate needs to be winning primaries and making it closer to 35 35 25.

Trump delegates would more likely light themselves on fire than delegate otherwise. Cruz delegates may swing, but only for a Cruz like nominee, which would be more like Carson than anyone else.

So the question then becomes will Trump or Cruz fall out? Do both candidates have what it takes to ride to the Convention. If they both can, then that means they could both keep getting 40% of the delegates, split the delegates so that no one wins. The Super Delegates won't go for Trump, and maybe just barely for Cruz, but with substantial requirements, ie they pick the VP.

So I suppose Cruz is the front-runner on a brokered convention. What Iowa and New Hampshire may show is how far back third and fourth place are. If a third place candidate can win enough primaries to steal enough delegates, they may be able to win the nomination with a Cruz VP slot.

I am going with Jeb Bush not because of any polls but instead because of his name-recognition and establishment support.

You are right that the establishment likes him and he certainly has name recognition because of his dad and brother. However Jeb's problem is that a lot if not most Republican voters are pissed at the establishment and don't like the idea of setting up a dynastic rule.

I don't have a clue who will come out the other side of this cluster fuck but the greatest fear of the Democrats that I know is that it will be Rubio.

It was Rubio, but he can't balance a checkbook.

 

[Sarpedon]

lots of people still say Rubio, but one good question I've heard people ask is "which early state will he win?" And the answer is probably none of them, as he's not first, or even second in any of them. That means he goes into Super Tuesday with no victories, and that is probably death. With Trump so far ahead in New Hampshire, I have a hard time seeing any establishment candidate winning an early state. This will give the establishment voters no clear leader to rally around on Super Tuesday, leading to a Trump/Cruz slug out.

I think its either Trump or Cruz. Marco is just too empty. Christie is too corrupt and liberal, Kasich is too late and Bush too oafish.

Now the fun question: who will hitch their vice-presidential cart to the Cruz or Trump horse? Who would drink that poison?

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Now the fun question: who will hitch their vice-presidential cart to the Cruz or Trump horse? Who would drink that poison?

That is an interesting question. On the one hand, the establishment wing of the Party would want to have one of their guys on the ticket to maybe rein in some of the crazy. On the other hand, it's a losing campaign and none of them would want to go into 2020 with the "Trump's guy" moniker hanging around their neck.

 

[Sarpedon]

Paul Ryan managed to parlay his failed vice presidential run into a House Speakership-a respectable achievement.

The best someone can hope for with Trump is a Sarah Palinesque celebrity media sideshow existence. So watch out for Sarah Palin types. I expect any of the other candidates, with the possible exception of Carson, would shun such a thing, as would the promising younger politicians like Haley etc.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Now the fun question: who will hitch their vice-presidential cart to the Cruz or Trump horse? Who would drink that poison?

That is an interesting question. On the one hand, the establishment wing of the Party would want to have one of their guys on the ticket to maybe rein in some of the crazy. On the other hand, it's a losing campaign and none of them would want to go into 2020 with the "Trump's guy" moniker hanging around their neck.

If Trump wins outrightly, the most delegates, it is whomever he wants. If there is a split, I think Cruz will be willing to negotiate a VP while Trump wouldn't, thus giving Cruz a leg up at the Convention. Rubio isn't running for re-election, so he isn't hamstrung by a VP run. But what does Rubio bring to the ticket other than being a Senator from a Battleground state. Kasich is term limited, so that gives him an option as a VP under Cruz. He offers Governorship of battleground state, a good deal of experience, and a hat tip to the establishment. Fiorina offers the double Business Sector punch, and may be a wise selection to try (I said try) to counter the female vote for Clinton. It'd be an "outsider" ticket, but not a very good one.

- - - Updated - - -

Paul Ryan managed to parlay his failed vice presidential run into a House Speakership-a respectable achievement.

The best someone can hope for with Trump is a Sarah Palinesque celebrity media sideshow existence. So watch out for Sarah Palin types. I expect any of the other candidates, with the possible exception of Carson, would shun such a thing, as would the promising younger politicians like Haley etc.

Paul Ryan was Romney's VP, not Herman Cain's VP.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

That is an interesting question. On the one hand, the establishment wing of the Party would want to have one of their guys on the ticket to maybe rein in some of the crazy. On the other hand, it's a losing campaign and none of them would want to go into 2020 with the "Trump's guy" moniker hanging around their neck.

If Trump wins outrightly, the most delegates, it is whomever he wants.

But Trump needs the party apparatus behind him. They own all the state organizations, handle all the volunteers, run all the local events, coordinate all the appearances, etc. If the establishment can't beat Trump in the primary, they may make the decision that it's a lost election and want to distance themselves from him as much as possible in preparation for the 2018 elections. If all their various parts are just phoning it in and doing the minimum required, Trump needs to make up the difference out of his own bank account. They may demand that he put their guy on the ticket with him in return for pretending to give a shit about trying.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If Trump wins outrightly, the most delegates, it is whomever he wants.

But Trump needs the party apparatus behind him.

As long as his delegates are loyal, it doesn't matter. If the RNC can strip delegates away, then Trump starts having a problem. This of course could lead to lawsuits.

They own all the state organizations, handle all the volunteers, run all the local events, coordinate all the appearances, etc. If the establishment can't beat Trump in the primary, they may make the decision that it's a lost election and want to distance themselves from him as much as possible in preparation for the 2018 elections. If all their various parts are just phoning it in and doing the minimum required, Trump needs to make up the difference out of his own bank account. They may demand that he put their guy on the ticket with him in return for pretending to give a shit about trying.

Can't he just accept public funding of the election?

 

[skepticalbip]

However Jeb's problem is that a lot if not most Republican voters ... don't like the idea of setting up a dynastic rule.

I have snipped a couple of things from your response because I'd like to deal with this single point for now.

One of my starting premises for my conclusion is that people are stupid. I'd like to submit the following as evidence:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emKHtJNdW5c

You will get no argument that there are a lot of stupid people. However, you are conflating two different groups here. Less than half of those who are eligible to vote actually vote. Those who are enamored with and follow the latest social media icons are generally in the group who could not name the vice president and are in the group that doesn't vote... valley girls would be in this group. It is those in the group who vote are the only ones that matter in primaries.

So back to Jeb's name recognition being a problem for him. His name is recognized as the son of GHWB and the brother of GWB. If he were instead recognized as the successful and popular governor of a large swing state then he would likely be quite competitive in the primaries. The reason for his name recognition is a negative since most republican voters don't want a dynasty established. Just as being favored by the RNC leadership is a negative for most republican voters since they are pissed at the RNC (example: the RNC despises Trump - he is leading the polls).

 

[Frikki]

Paul Ryan managed to parlay his failed vice presidential run into a House Speakership-a respectable achievement.

The best someone can hope for with Trump is a Sarah Palinesque celebrity media sideshow existence. So watch out for Sarah Palin types. I expect any of the other candidates, with the possible exception of Carson, would shun such a thing, as would the promising younger politicians like Haley etc.

He feels like an elder statesman compared to the band of lunatics running right now.