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Who will be the 2016 Republican nominee? (Jan. 2016 edition)

 
 
 

Who will be the 2016 Republican nominee?

  • Jeb Bush

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Ben Carson

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Chris Christie

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Ted Druz

    Votes: 1 4.5%

  • Carly Fiorina

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Mike Huckabee

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • John Kasich

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Rand Paul

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Marco Rubio

    Votes: 6 27.3%

  • Rick Santorum

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 9 40.9%

  • Magical Brownies

    Votes: 4 18.2%
  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
Bush just oozes doofus. Rubio also. I suspect a battle between Trump and Cruz. Kasich? Crystal ball says ask again later. But all depends on who stumbles big time next. There are about 9 months left to repel the electorate.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Bush just oozes doofus. Rubio also. I suspect a battle between Trump and Cruz. Kasich? Crystal ball says ask again later. But all depends on who stumbles big time next. There are about 9 months left to repel the electorate.
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But what answer could somebody potentially get later which one can't get today? It's not like one of the establishment candidates is secretly competent and worthwhile but has just been holding back on revealing those qualities until later in the primary for strategic reasons. Bush is a dud, Rubio is a lightweight and Kasich is about as interesting as a sack of potatoes. I think the establishment's best strategy is to concede this election (because there's zero chance of them winning no matter what they do), letting the crazies run amok for the rest of the year and then picking up the pieces in December after those crazies see what happens when they nominate the type of person that they want to nominate.
 
The problem is, the crazies may sink the down ballot elections. That is what bothers the GOP greybeards. So we may see some stand-alone races for Senate and Congress that do not mention the crazies.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
The problem is, the crazies may sink the down ballot elections. That is what bothers the GOP greybeards. So we may see some stand-alone races for Senate and Congress that do not mention the crazies.
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My preferences...the Repugs could have a convention that breaks down into a riot and they cannot settle on a candidate. I frankly think Clinton should go over there as she gets her money at the same watering hole. The list on the chart is about as comprehensive list of crazies as I have ever seen...of course Dubbiya thank the fates is through leading our nation.
 
SC looks like a landslide for Trump again. The recent polls all show Trump ahead by a mile.
Augusta Chronicle and SC House GOP polls released Friday show Trump with solid 2nd place for Cruz and Rubio/Kasich/Bush battling it out for 3rd. The thing is, those three together are polling very close to Trump. Establishment really needs to coalesce around one champion if they want to stop the Trump juggernaut.
The ARG poll released Saturday might be an outlier because it shows Cruz way down among the establishment candidates and 2nd place being wide open. Then again, the same poll shows Hillary with a huge lead so it just might be a poor poll.
Latest poll I have seen, by CBS/YouGov reaffirms a "yuge" lead for The Donald and restores Cruz to the 2nd place but also has Rubio solidly in third. Kasich is way down and ¡Jeb! is in Carson territory. So could Rubio be the establishment favorite after SC despite Roboghazi?

None of the polls show poor, confused Carson with any significant level of support. And that's a state that elected Tim Scott to Senate with >60% - if a black Republican can't play here he can't play anywhere.
 
Derec said:
SC looks like a landslide for Trump again. The recent polls all show Trump ahead by a mile.
Augusta Chronicle and SC House GOP polls released Friday show Trump with solid 2nd place for Cruz and Rubio/Kasich/Bush battling it out for 3rd. The thing is, those three together are polling very close to Trump. Establishment really needs to coalesce around one champion if they want to stop the Trump juggernaut.
The ARG poll released Saturday might be an outlier because it shows Cruz way down among the establishment candidates and 2nd place being wide open. Then again, the same poll shows Hillary with a huge lead so it just might be a poor poll.
Latest poll I have seen, by CBS/YouGov reaffirms a "yuge" lead for The Donald and restores Cruz to the 2nd place but also has Rubio solidly in third. Kasich is way down and ¡Jeb! is in Carson territory. So could Rubio be the establishment favorite after SC despite Roboghazi?

None of the polls show poor, confused Carson with any significant level of support. And that's a state that elected Tim Scott to Senate with >60% - if a black Republican can't play here he can't play anywhere.
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He obviously doesn't play bridge or he would know that no trump beats trump.
 
Well, maybe not Trump. Who is back to threatening an independen trun if that bad ol' Cruz doesn't stop running anti-Trump ads. Maybe Trump should start his own political party. That would show 'em!
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Well, maybe not Trump. Who is back to threatening an independen trun if that bad ol' Cruz doesn't stop running anti-Trump ads. Maybe Trump should start his own political party. That would show 'em!
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Well he is consistently well ahead in polls in SC (the midfield is less consistent). Newest poll, released by Democratic outfit Public Policy Polling, has Trump at 35%, ahead of both Cruz and Rubio at 18%, Kasich well behind them at 10% and Bush keeping Carson company down at 7%. And while, as I said, the midfield changes Trump is consistently polling in the mid-30s. Even if he should underperform his polls he would win SC comfortably.

He will be difficult (but not impossible) to beat. What I think his threat has to do with is if he feels the GOP establishment somehow stole the nomination, with a brokered convention for example. Like if he ends up with 40 or 45% of delegates and the others unite to nominate a compromise candidate like Paul Ryan it's understandable if Trump got angry.
trumpHulk-435x375.jpg

Republicans would not like him angry and running a scorched Earth third party campaign.
 
That is the main difficulty they face. They want someone else, but it's looking like Trump will get at least a significant portion of the delegates and he's quite capable of declaring an independent run if they try to take it from him.

If this wasn't the direct result of the paths they've been going in for the past decade or so and I didn't think that their policies were terrible, I wouldn't be laughing so hard at them.
 
ZiprHead said:
It's Morning Again In Ameri... oops

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2016/02/15/vancouver-skyline-featured-in-marco-rubios-morning-again-in-america-campaign-ad/
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OK, I'm all for laughing at the Republicans, but that's just kind of unfair. I'm sure that they wanted to show the harbor of an American city, but it's tough to find a picture of one which doesn't have an island of garbage or the bloated corpse of a murdered prostitute floating in it. The Rubio campaign had a limited amount of time to put this ad together and they couldn't afford to sift through thousands of photos in order to find one that wouldn't make the audience vomit, so they went with a non-US city for the sake of expediency. It's a minor and wholely justified decision.
 
They could have driven 3hrs south here to Seattle and had a nice view. We have more dead rats than prostitutes and the beer is better. The poutine isn't as good though.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
ZiprHead said:
It's Morning Again In Ameri... oops

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2016/...-rubios-morning-again-in-america-campaign-ad/
Click to expand...

OK, I'm all for laughing at the Republicans, but that's just kind of unfair. I'm sure that they wanted to show the harbor of an American city, but it's tough to find a picture of one which doesn't have an island of garbage or the bloated corpse of a murdered prostitute floating in it.
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Umm... this is Vancouver, BC where floating feet and bodies wash up, including prostitutes. You must be confusing it for Halifax or something.

The sad thing, is that the poor Canadians apparently have these political ads flowing like sewage across their unprotected border. May want to consider a firewall... that the US has to pay for.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Tom Sawyer said:
OK, I'm all for laughing at the Republicans, but that's just kind of unfair. I'm sure that they wanted to show the harbor of an American city, but it's tough to find a picture of one which doesn't have an island of garbage or the bloated corpse of a murdered prostitute floating in it.
Click to expand...
Umm... this is Vancouver, BC where floating feet and bodies wash up, including prostitutes. You must be confusing it for Halifax or something.
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Where floating feet and bodies sometimes wash up. Also, our serial killers eat the prostitutes they murder, thank you very much. They don't pollute the ocean with them like some kind of boorish American. :mad:
 
ZiprHead said:
bilby said:
What's wrong with that?

Vancouver is in America.

Just not the United States.
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That's always been something that kinda' bugged me. Why aren't Canadians and Mexicans Americans? Not to mention Central and South Americans. /derail
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IMO, anyone who lives between about 20oW and about 170oW longitude is an American.
 
bilby said:
ZiprHead said:
That's always been something that kinda' bugged me. Why aren't Canadians and Mexicans Americans? Not to mention Central and South Americans. /derail
Click to expand...

IMO, anyone who lives between about 20oW and about 170oW longitude is an American.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but what do Aussies know. :tomato:
 
ZiprHead said:
That's always been something that kinda' bugged me. Why aren't Canadians and Mexicans Americans? Not to mention Central and South Americans. /derail
Click to expand...
Because USA is the only country with "America" actually in the name and also USA-ian sounds kind of weird.
Taking part of a country's name for common usage is rather common. We used to refer to "Soviets" and not to USSR-ians even though "soviet" merely means "council".
 
But back on topic, this was a good, but not yuge, night for Trump. He won 7 states or so, solidified his delegate lead and most importantly the opposition failed to form around a single candidate. Divide et impera, as the Romans knew.
Ted Cruz, who won three states (and came second in a few others) and thus did very well, knows it too. In his speech he urged everybody to unite behind him to beat Trump.
Difficulties arise in that Rubio won Minnesota caucuses (Trump came third, the only of the night!) and came rather close to Trump in Virginia.
Even Kasich had some good news. He came close to denying Trump the win in Vermont and squeaked out a second place ahead of Rubio in Massachusetts. For both Rubio and Kasich March 15th, when their home states vote in winner-take-all contests, is do or die.
Only Carson could find no traction whatsoever. Is he still in there just as a spoiler for Cruz?
That the Republican field is still fractured can only benefit Trump. It is increasingly likely that the only way to stop Trump will be a brokered convention if he fails to win 50%+1 delegate outright. But if he shows up to the convention with say 45% of delegates and is denied that will not play well with his supporters.
 
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