Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

[TV and credit cards]

Not to mention changing horses this late in the race hase never been done.

No one has ever tried to run an 81 year old horse before.

 

[ZiprHead]

Not to mention changing horses this late in the race hase never been done.

No one has ever tried to run an 81 year old horse before.

81 is the new 70ie.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

At this point a Trump victory is assured, if the election is tomorrow. But it’s not. If the DNC is the shitshow I expect, it portends disaster in November. Who knows? Maybe Jesus will appear and run, but would atheists vote for him?

It is July now. The Democratic nominating convention has not happened. Harris has been talked about as a possible replacement, but not taken seriously, given Biden's strong refusal to consider releasing his hold on the nomination. The election season has not officially started, even though Biden decided to go for that early debate. Polling right now is not a good indication of how people will vote in November. Biden will likely get behind the election of his VP. We can expect the election dynamic to change, not remain the same as it was with Biden at the top of the ticket. There is time for Democrats to build up momentum for a new ticket. Get a grip.

The GOP could settle on a turd sandwich as a nominee ...

Like they haven't?

At best, it is opened face.

 

[pood]

To me, they are predictive of the Democratic party shooting itself in both feet and then hobbling to defeat. Maybe 3rd time is the charm?

Putting aside the obvious inductive fallacy here, how are two examples out of the history of the U.S. supposed to be relevant to anything, particularly as I’ve already pointed out other examples of presidents withdrawing and being succeeded by members of the their own party?

As I mentioned, Truman was deeply unpopular in 1952 and almost surely would have lost to Eisenhower. Same thing with LBJ in 1968. And the fact is that Biden is deeply unpopular now, no matter how much this is undeserved (and it is). Moreover, he is 81 years old and simply not performing well in public. I do not believe he has any cognitive defect, but he is obviously old, and pretty obviously very tired. I don’t think he can prosecute this campaign against the orange monster. I could be wrong, of course, and if he stays in the race, we shall see.

 

[SLD]

It looks almost certain now that Biden will drop out. Likely VP candidates could come from those polling even stronger than Harris:

Biden could drop out of presidential race as early as this weekend, report suggests​

While Harris would appear to be the natural choice to replace Biden, a poll conducted by BlueLabs and first reported on by Politico earlier this week found that four other Democrats would outperform Biden by roughly five points overall across battleground states. While Harris also outperformed Biden in the poll, the margin was narrower.

According to the poll, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer were all found to outperform both Biden and Harris.

My preference among the four would definitely be Whitmer, but my guess is that the Democratic leadership will prefer one of the males over another woman on the ticket. That kind of calculation stinks, but I think they fear shaving off a few more points in poll numbers.

I wouldn’t pick Wes Moore. But the others would be great. The problem is I just think it’s too late. Also they need some color on the ticket. Either keep Harris, or put on Cory Booker.

 

[Copernicus]

The Democratic convention is a full month off. It starts on August 19. If Biden bows out in the next few days, there will be plenty of time for everyone to start recalculating the odds. The convention will be very different.

Donald Trump's speech tonight was typical Trump Gish gallop, but it went on and on in the standard Trump drone tone. It was the longest such campaign speech in history for a nominating convention, and people were reportedly heading to the exits before he was done rambling. We have a huge contrast here. One party is keeping the old duffer that has trouble giving a speech that makes sense. The other party is on the verge of jettisoning their candidate, because he can't seem to deliver a speech that makes sense or sell his very successful past administration. Both men are unpopular with the country at large, which does not want to see a replay of 2020.

Donald Trump is being given high marks, in part, because he seems younger, more coherent, and more in touch with his surroundings than Biden. I don't think he is, but that is why all of the focus now is on every verbal misstep by Biden, and less of it is on the same types of missteps made by Trump. There is a double standard, and Biden is failing the standard set for him. If Harris were to replace him, suddenly the perception would be reversed--that Trump was the old duffer running against a younger, more energetic, and more in touch candidate. He would be yesterday's news, and she would be given the traditional reset that Americans give known politicians who suddenly compete for a higher, more important public office. And the VP candidate to contrast with Vance would also be a fresh face to focus on. Harris would have a month to find someone to have as a running mate.

 

[Derec]

Personally, I think the last few weeks are proof that Biden definitely has the endurance to be President. If I had to constantly reiterate to people that I'm running for weeks and weeks after explicitly saying that I am, I would have flipped my nut and told everyone to go fist themselves long ago. And I'm nowhere near his age - his patience is pretty fucking phenomenal.

Maybe he just keeps forgetting that he said it before.

 

[Derec]

Conjectures about shat might have happened are just that. Your examples are appreciated and instructive (much more for Republicans).

The Democrats have no success in replacing their POTUS candidate. None. What makes them think replacing one now will generate s different outcome? It boggles what little is left of my mind that the Democratic Party thinks replacing Biden instead of working harder will generate a victory for them.

Replacing the candidate this late is a risky gambit, sure.
But staying with Biden is at least as risky. And the deficiencies he has shown in the debate and in the interviews, as well as frailty that was for example demonstrated in this clip will not get better, as he is not getting any younger.

So changing the candidate, as risky as that is, is most likely the right move here. Your argument ignores the risk of sticking with Biden. What if he performs even worse in the second debate? Or falls Giuliani-style?

 

[Copernicus]

Biden has that stiff old man gait when he walks these days. It does seem that he has balance issues, just as Donald Trump does. But Trump's coordination does seem better lately, which was not the case a year ago. Neither man could win a dance contest, unless they only competed against people with their level of stiffness and fragility. When he stepped off of Air Force One, he did not appear to struggle or stumble. He did so cautiously, but he is an old man. He stopped every few steps and seemed to acknowledge people on the tarmac. He looked more awkward once he got off of the steps--flatfooted.