Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

[Elixir]

Andy Beshear

Would be replace by a Republican Governor …

 

[laughing dog]

Harry Truman dropped out and his pkacement lost.
LBJ dropped out and his replacement lost.
McGovern cowardly dropped his VP pick and he got trounced.

Doesn’t anyone in the Democratic Party lean history or from it?

McGovern would have lost anyway. Harry Truman was eligible to run for re-election, but had already served eight years and he was deeply unpopular. Any Democrat, including Truman, would have lost to war hero Eisenhower that year. LBJ’s replacement in waiting was Bobby Kennedy, who was ripping through the primaries, but he got shot.

Probably MCGovern would have lost but not ad badly, HST was inpopular and Biden is not unpopular. LBJ’s replacement lost to an unpopular. History has not been kind to Democratic 2nd choices. It is something to consider instead of making excuses.

 

[Elixir]

I think we might as well accept that Trump will get a second term. The only positive is that a lot of Democrats running for the Senate in Trump states are ahead of their Republican opponents. It appears as if a good percentage of people are gong to vote a split ballot. Trump for president and a Dem for Senator. As far as the House goes, that may be a very different story. I think the Dems need to work at appealing to voters for Senate candidates at this point since they've pretty much helped destroy any chance that Biden had. Yes. I blame the Dems of this. Maybe Biden screwed up the debate, but the Dems didn't help by their constant criticism of him.

I also saw a pundit say that when she asked people who would be good to replace Biden, none of them had a clue, but most weren't thrilled with Harris. I'm fine with her, but I'll vote for any Dem. I just don't see how she will win in the small number of states that will determine the outcome of this election. "People hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest". That line has a lot of truth in it, especially now.

How many times does Whitmer have to say she doesn't want to run, at least not in 2024? Most people in this country don't even know who she is. We forget that most of us are political/news junkies. Most people aren't.

Polls? Remember all the polls that predicted Hillary was going to win? How did that work out? I don't believe polls. I don't answer them myself and I'm sure I'm not the only one. It's all about turnout. I personally know some Trump supporters who never vote, so that's a good thing. Of course, there are probably some who support Biden who never vote either. Which group is bigger? Republicans are like sheep so they unite. Democrats are like cats. You can't herd the cats.

I think that we all tend to predict the future on the basis of our own experiences. If I lived in the South, even in a purple state like Georgia, I would likely agree with you that most people would be likely to split the ticket for Trump at the top and a local Democrat for legislative office. However, I live in Washington state, so my gut tells me the opposite--that more people are likely to split for Democrat at the top and a local Republican for legislative. It seems that there are a lot of Republicans--maybe 20% of them--who have serious misgivings about voting for Donald Trump. Harris would make the split ticket choice a lot easier from them than Biden would, given the state of his perceived mental decline. Any other choice than Harris at the top of the ticket would likely make the race even more unpredictable, because it will likely be over the objections of core Biden voters. OTOH, a woman of color on the top of the Democratic ticket will likely turn away some voters who would have voted for Biden.

Regardless of what our guts tell us, my head tells me that I just don't know. I fear that a Trump victory is more likely if Biden stays in the race and less likely if he leaves. There are others here who strongly disagree with me. I'll feel relieved when Biden bows out, but they may feel even more alarmed. It is still way too early--just mid July--to start taking polls too seriously, especially in swing states.

At this point a Trump victory is assured, if the election is tomorrow. But it’s not. If the DNC is the shitshow I expect, it portends disaster in November. Who knows? Maybe Jesus will appear and run, but would atheists vote for him?

 

[Copernicus]

At this point a Trump victory is assured, if the election is tomorrow. But it’s not. If the DNC is the shitshow I expect, it portends disaster in November. Who knows? Maybe Jesus will appear and run, but would atheists vote for him?

It is July now. The Democratic nominating convention has not happened. Harris has been talked about as a possible replacement, but not taken seriously, given Biden's strong refusal to consider releasing his hold on the nomination. The election season has not officially started, even though Biden decided to go for that early debate. Polling right now is not a good indication of how people will vote in November. Biden will likely get behind the election of his VP. We can expect the election dynamic to change, not remain the same as it was with Biden at the top of the ticket. There is time for Democrats to build up momentum for a new ticket. Get a grip.

 

[pood]

Harry Truman dropped out and his pkacement lost.
LBJ dropped out and his replacement lost.
McGovern cowardly dropped his VP pick and he got trounced.

Doesn’t anyone in the Democratic Party lean history or from it?

McGovern would have lost anyway. Harry Truman was eligible to run for re-election, but had already served eight years and he was deeply unpopular. Any Democrat, including Truman, would have lost to war hero Eisenhower that year. LBJ’s replacement in waiting was Bobby Kennedy, who was ripping through the primaries, but he got shot.

Probably MCGovern would have lost but not ad badly, HST was inpopular and Biden is not unpopular. LBJ’s replacement lost to an unpopular. History has not been kind to Democratic 2nd choices. It is something to consider instead of making excuses.

Biden IS unpopular. He has been underwater in the approval polls for the last two and a half years. The only president in polling history more unpopular than him was Trump during his reign of error and terror. As noted, LBJ’s likely replacement, RFK, likely would have beaten Nixon and Humphrey nearly did anyway. Not sure what your point is. I also gave you counter-examples from history of like party succeeding like party.

 

[laughing dog]

Harry Truman dropped out and his pkacement lost.
LBJ dropped out and his replacement lost.
McGovern cowardly dropped his VP pick and he got trounced.

Doesn’t anyone in the Democratic Party lean history or from it?

McGovern would have lost anyway. Harry Truman was eligible to run for re-election, but had already served eight years and he was deeply unpopular. Any Democrat, including Truman, would have lost to war hero Eisenhower that year. LBJ’s replacement in waiting was Bobby Kennedy, who was ripping through the primaries, but he got shot.

Probably MCGovern would have lost but not ad badly, HST was inpopular and Biden is not unpopular. LBJ’s replacement lost to an unpopular. History has not been kind to Democratic 2nd choices. It is something to consider instead of making excuses.

Biden IS unpopular. He has been underwater in the approval polls for the last two and a half years. The only president in polling history more unpopular than him was Trump during his reign of error and terror. As noted, LBJ’s likely replacement, RFK, likely would have beaten Nixon and Humphrey nearly did anyway. Not sure what your point is. I also gave you counter-examples from history of like party succeeding like party.

Conjectures about shat might have happened are just that. Your examples are appreciated and instructive (much more for Republicans).

The Democrats have no success in replacing their POTUS candidate. None. What makes them think replacing one now will generate s different outcome? It boggles what little is left of my mind that the Democratic Party thinks replacing Biden instead of working harder will generate a victory for them.

 

[Patooka]

Personally, I think the last few weeks are proof that Biden definitely has the endurance to be President. If I had to constantly reiterate to people that I'm running for weeks and weeks after explicitly saying that I am, I would have flipped my nut and told everyone to go fist themselves long ago. And I'm nowhere near his age - his patience is pretty fucking phenomenal.

 

[Politesse]

How is "working hard" supposed to make Biden popular when he isn't?

 

[pood]

The Democrats have no success in replacing their POTUS candidate. None. What makes them think replacing one now will generate s different outcome? It boggles what little is left of my mind that the Democratic Party thinks replacing Biden instead of working harder will generate a victory for them.

You’ve given two examples. Truman and LBJ. I’ve already addressed both. I don’t know why you think this slender reed is predictive evidence of anything.

 

[laughing dog]

The Democrats have no success in replacing their POTUS candidate. None. What makes them think replacing one now will generate s different outcome? It boggles what little is left of my mind that the Democratic Party thinks replacing Biden instead of working harder will generate a victory for them.

You’ve given two examples. Truman and LBJ. I’ve already addressed both. I don’t know why you think this slender reed is predictive evidence of anything.

To me, they are predictive of the Democratic party shooting itself in both feet and then hobbling to defeat. Maybe 3rd time is the charm?

 

[Ford]

At this point a Trump victory is assured, if the election is tomorrow. But it’s not. If the DNC is the shitshow I expect, it portends disaster in November. Who knows? Maybe Jesus will appear and run, but would atheists vote for him?

It is July now. The Democratic nominating convention has not happened. Harris has been talked about as a possible replacement, but not taken seriously, given Biden's strong refusal to consider releasing his hold on the nomination. The election season has not officially started, even though Biden decided to go for that early debate. Polling right now is not a good indication of how people will vote in November. Biden will likely get behind the election of his VP. We can expect the election dynamic to change, not remain the same as it was with Biden at the top of the ticket. There is time for Democrats to build up momentum for a new ticket. Get a grip.

For a couple weeks, yes, it is July. As for the Democratic convention, had Biden not flopped at the debate and in several subsequent interviews/appearances, the convention would have been a coronation as we're seeing with the last night of the GOP rally. Foregone conclusion and what not. That's not where we are right now. The Republican Party crowned their king as expected, but the Democrats are like "yeah...I dunno. Seemed like a good idea six months ago, but...."

And don't give me this "election season has not officially started" stuff. When did the last primary challenger to Biden drop out of the race? A big challenge for the Democrats (if Biden drops out) is the inertia they've had since then, and I don't know if they have enough time to (metaphorically and actually) replace all the "Biden/Harris 2024" campaign signs with "Harris/(fill in the blank)."

I hate to keep harping on this point, but the Democrats are nowhere near as good at closing ranks as the Republicans are. The GOP could settle on a turd sandwich as a nominee and nobody would break ranks. The fundraising and campaign machine would turn on a dime and you'd see "Turd Sandwich 2024" merch flying off the (virtual) shelves tomorrow. The Democrats are still "yeah, man...I dunno." If Biden drops out tomorrow and gets behind Harris, they'll still be that way up until the convention, and even then large parts of the party will be like "okay...I guess."

 

[barbos]

Personally, I think the last few weeks are proof that Biden definitely has the endurance to be President

Demented people have remarkable endurance/stubbornness.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

At this point a Trump victory is assured, if the election is tomorrow. But it’s not. If the DNC is the shitshow I expect, it portends disaster in November. Who knows? Maybe Jesus will appear and run, but would atheists vote for him?

It is July now. The Democratic nominating convention has not happened. Harris has been talked about as a possible replacement, but not taken seriously, given Biden's strong refusal to consider releasing his hold on the nomination. The election season has not officially started, even though Biden decided to go for that early debate. Polling right now is not a good indication of how people will vote in November. Biden will likely get behind the election of his VP. We can expect the election dynamic to change, not remain the same as it was with Biden at the top of the ticket. There is time for Democrats to build up momentum for a new ticket. Get a grip.

The GOP could settle on a turd sandwich as a nominee ...

Like they haven't?

 

[southernhybrid]

Yes. I blame the Dems of this. Maybe Biden screwed up the debate, but the Dems didn't help by their constant criticism of him.

There are virtues worth keeping, other than blind partisan loyalty. If we are not permitted to criticize our leaders when they err, we are not a democratic country no matter who "wins" the fanciest office in it.

Of course, we can criticize, but this election is like no other, and if we wanted change, it should have been started a long time ago. I don't think anyone can beat Trump at this point, but I think regardless of who the nominee ends up being, we should all. unite behind that person and at least try to beat Trump. JD Vance scares the shit out of me and he will likely be the Republican nominee in 2028 and have a lot of influence over Trump, assuming he becomes president again. The man is a con artist but much smarter than Trump. Anyway....no need to go on.

 

[ZiprHead]

A black woman and a Jew? Yeah, that'll work.

I didn’t even know Shapiro is Jewish. Of course it shouldn’t matter, but it will. Kelly might be a good pick. In any case, even though Harris does not automatically become the nominee if Biden quits, likely she will be.

Really? Shapiro didn't ring a bell?

 

[southernhybrid]

I think the Democrats are idiots for having the convention this late. It should be happening now, as their may be problems in several states getting someone other than Biden on the ballot, if he is replaced. We're screwed. Democrats aren't going to unite behind any candidate. All we can hope for is strong voter turn out by those who vote blue not matter who. That describes all of my friends, but there are over 10 million people in my state and like most places, the urban areas are pretty blue and the rural areas are pretty red, while the suburban areas are mixed..

 

[ZiprHead]

Harry Truman dropped out and his pkacement lost.
LBJ dropped out and his replacement lost.
McGovern cowardly dropped his VP pick and he got trounced.

Doesn’t anyone in the Democratic Party lean history or from it?

Yup.

Not to mention changing horses this late in the race hase never been done.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Yes. I blame the Dems of this. Maybe Biden screwed up the debate, but the Dems didn't help by their constant criticism of him.

There are virtues worth keeping, other than blind partisan loyalty. If we are not permitted to criticize our leaders when they err, we are not a democratic country no matter who "wins" the fanciest office in it.

Of course, we can criticize, but this election is like no other, and if we wanted change, it should have been started a long time ago. I don't think anyone can beat Trump at this point, but I think regardless of who the nominee ends up being, we should all. unite behind that person and at least try to beat Trump. JD Vance scares the shit out of me and he will likely be the Republican nominee in 2028 and have a lot of influence over Trump, assuming he becomes president again. The man is a con artist but much smarter than Trump. Anyway....no need to go on.

If the Anti-Christ was thing in the world of real things, he'd be J.D. Vance.

 

[ZiprHead]

Perhaps someone could clear up some things for me.
1. If Biden steps down does Harris automatically become the Democratic nominee?
2. If the answer to 1 is no then why was she ever made VP? I would have thought being VP meant you were considered suitable for the role of president or presidential nominee.
3. If the answer to 2 is no i.e. Harris is not automatically the nominee then what happens to her when the new heir presumptive is anointed? Does she stay as VP or go (hopefully?) quietly into the night?

No, she does not automatically become the nominee.

But the campaign funds would need to be released to anyone else.

My understanding is that the funds could only go to Harris. Anyone else would be starting from scratch and be a severe impediment to winning.

 

[ZiprHead]

Personally, I think the last few weeks are proof that Biden definitely has the endurance to be President

Demented people have remarkable endurance/stubbornness.

As demonstrated by your posts in "that thread".