Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

[Tigers!]

There is a pre-packaged Democrat Prince in shining armor, waiting in the wings for his entrance, unsullied by the Republican defamation machine. When called by Central Casting, he will emerge fully formed on the world stage, ready to articulate all Trump’s weakness, corruption and stupidity with irresistible and devastating power, while concisely presenting a clear vision of a bright, beautiful, prosperous, attainable American future.

And will lose the electoral college by over 150 points.

If so, then Biden would likely lose the electoral college by even more. If he does step down, the electoral map will likely remain the same for a while. The worst thing that Democrats could do would be to replace Biden with some white guy. If they feel they need a white guy, then Harris can pick such a running mate. It could even be Biden himself, although I think that would be a bad idea. I don't think that Biden is fit to campaign at this point.

A few days ago electoral-vote.com floated a Harris/Shapiro ticket. Might be the right ticket. Biden is behind slightly in Pennsylvania and Shapiro likely would sew that up.

A black woman and a Jew? Yeah, that'll work.

A black female Jew would reduce the possible permutations.

 

[Elixir]

There is a pre-packaged Democrat Prince in shining armor, waiting in the wings for his entrance, unsullied by the Republican defamation machine. When called by Central Casting, he will emerge fully formed on the world stage, ready to articulate all Trump’s weakness, corruption and stupidity with irresistible and devastating power, while concisely presenting a clear vision of a bright, beautiful, prosperous, attainable American future.

And will lose the electoral college by over 150 points.

If so, then Biden would likely lose the electoral college by even more. If he does step down, the electoral map will likely remain the same for a while. The worst thing that Democrats could do would be to replace Biden with some white guy. If they feel they need a white guy, then Harris can pick such a running mate. It could even be Biden himself, although I think that would be a bad idea. I don't think that Biden is fit to campaign at this point.

Don’t be silly. Biden won’t be on the ballot, he’ll be extolling the virtues of The Prince in his usual rapid fire mangled delivery, for anyone who will listen. And The Prince will have just enough diversity in his b’gnd to sell to minorities, but not enough to make the moderately racist nervous, and put Trump’s fake tan to shame. He will speak more beautifully than Obama or Buttigieg, and will heap shame upon the Trump Party such as they have never known! From his mouth shall flow every brilliant thought that Biden could never enunciate, and from his presence The Donald himself will shy, for fear of appearing weak and stupid.

Maybe 200 points.

 

[TSwizzle]

Perhaps someone could clear up some things for me.
1. If Biden steps down does Harris automatically become the Democratic nominee?
2. If the answer to 1 is no then why was she ever made VP? I would have thought being VP meant you were considered suitable for the role of president or presidential nominee.
3. If the answer to 2 is no i.e. Harris is not automatically the nominee then what happens to her when the new heir presumptive is anointed? Does she stay as VP or go (hopefully?) quietly into the night?

Because she was a black female, surely you knew that?

I don't know for sure but I think campaign contributions made to the Biden/Harris ticket cannot be used for another campaign and if true, Harris will have to be on the ticket as one or other in order to use the Biden/Harris campaign funds.

 

[pood]

Axios is reporting that Biden will be persuaded to drop out as early as this weekend, but I don’t consider Axios a reputable news source. Sort of like Swizzle’s favorite rag, The Daily Mail.

 

[pood]

Perhaps someone could clear up some things for me.
1. If Biden steps down does Harris automatically become the Democratic nominee?
2. If the answer to 1 is no then why was she ever made VP? I would have thought being VP meant you were considered suitable for the role of president or presidential nominee.
3. If the answer to 2 is no i.e. Harris is not automatically the nominee then what happens to her when the new heir presumptive is anointed? Does she stay as VP or go (hopefully?) quietly into the night?

No, she does not automatically become the nominee.

 

[pood]

A black woman and a Jew? Yeah, that'll work.

I didn’t even know Shapiro is Jewish. Of course it shouldn’t matter, but it will. Kelly might be a good pick. In any case, even though Harris does not automatically become the nominee if Biden quits, likely she will be.

 

[TV and credit cards]

"It feels like it's a matter of ... when, not if," the aide said.
Another source, a Biden campaign official, said the opposite. "Yes, it's over. Just a matter of time."

Not named but the quotes are from Reuters.
Let's get on with it. They're probably making calls now, lining up who to put forward so it doesn't turn into a cluster looks professional.

 

[Ford]

Perhaps someone could clear up some things for me.
1. If Biden steps down does Harris automatically become the Democratic nominee?
2. If the answer to 1 is no then why was she ever made VP? I would have thought being VP meant you were considered suitable for the role of president or presidential nominee.
3. If the answer to 2 is no i.e. Harris is not automatically the nominee then what happens to her when the new heir presumptive is anointed? Does she stay as VP or go (hopefully?) quietly into the night?

No, she does not automatically become the nominee.

Yeah, if he does drop out a couple things will happen. First off, the GOP/Trump campaign will immediately begin banging the "if he's not fit to run for President, why doesn't he resign from the office now?" drum. The other thing is that the Democrats - the "herding cats" half of the US two-party system - will gear up for a fight over the nominee up until the convention. You have a wide range of leading Democrats calling for/suggesting that Biden should step down, and I very much doubt they all agree that Harris should be the nominee. You'll at the very least a few challengers and camps of people who think it should be one of those instead.

I would be very, very surprised if the convention was not a shit-show.

As for your second and third questions, VP candidates are often chosen to compliment the top pick. Biden is an old white guy. Harris is a young(er) black woman. Trump was a cad, but Pence was a dedicated evangelical. Going back further, Bush was a folksy plain-spoken guy, while Cheney was a smart policy wonk. Clinton was a sax-playing "celebrity," while Gore was boring. Yeah, they generally want someone who is able to take over in an emergency, but if you ask them if they want the VP choice to actually run for President, the respective party leadership would say "oh god no! That's not what we're after!"

If she's not the nominee, I'd guess she'll leave the ticket and run again for President in 2028. After all, Biden sat out the 2016 race for personal reasons and came back 4 years later.

 

[Elixir]

Perhaps someone could clear up some things for me.
1. If Biden steps down does Harris automatically become the Democratic nominee?
2. If the answer to 1 is no then why was she ever made VP? I would have thought being VP meant you were considered suitable for the role of president or presidential nominee.
3. If the answer to 2 is no i.e. Harris is not automatically the nominee then what happens to her when the new heir presumptive is anointed? Does she stay as VP or go (hopefully?) quietly into the night?

Because she was a black female, surely you knew that?

I don't know for sure but I think campaign contributions made to the Biden/Harris ticket cannot be used for another campaign and if true, Harris will have to be on the ticket as one or other in order to use the Biden/Harris campaign funds.

Can they just name the ticket after them and run someone else?
@Tigers nobody is asking Biden to resign, which would make Kami President. They’re asking him not to run for reelection.

 

[Copernicus]

At this point, I don't think that the public really cares about gender, race, or ethnicity. Vance's wife of Indian descent, as is Harris, and those inclined not to vote for someone Jewish are more likely to be in the rightwing fringe. Shapiro is popular in Pennsylvania, which is important. Whitmer would help with Michigan, which is also an extremely important electoral state. Newsom wouldn't help with the electoral count, so he would not be a strong candidate for the Democratic ticket. They need someone that is popular in a Midwestern swing state.

 

[laughing dog]

Harry Truman dropped out and his pkacement lost.
LBJ dropped out and his replacement lost.
McGovern cowardly dropped his VP pick and he got trounced.

Doesn’t anyone in the Democratic Party lean history or from it?

 

[Ford]

Harry Truman dropped out and his pkacement lost.
LBJ dropped out and his replacement lost.
McGovern cowardly dropped his VP pick and he got trounced.

Doesn’t anyone in the Democratic Party lean history or from it?

No.

And another thing that comes to mind is that on the off chance that the Democrats unify behind Harris right away, she's gonna need a running mate. As much as I hate to say it, the party is going to have to pick an experienced white man to balance the ticket in the way I talked about earlier. Newsom? Maybe. I've seen some suggestions that Mark Kelly (AZ Senator, fighter pilot, astronaut) would poll well in either role.

I dunno. We're in uncharted territory for sure.

 

[pood]

Harry Truman dropped out and his pkacement lost.
LBJ dropped out and his replacement lost.
McGovern cowardly dropped his VP pick and he got trounced.

Doesn’t anyone in the Democratic Party lean history or from it?

McGovern would have lost anyway. Harry Truman was eligible to run for re-election, but had already served eight years and he was deeply unpopular. Any Democrat, including Truman, would have lost to war hero Eisenhower that year. LBJ’s replacement in waiting was Bobby Kennedy, who was ripping through the primaries, but he got shot.

 

[pood]

Rutherford B. Hayes (or Rutherfraud, as he was called then and I call him still) was a Republican who did not seek re-election. He was succeeded by the Republican Garfield. Theodore Roosevelt, a Republican, did not seek re-election. He was succeeded by the Republican Taft. Coolidge, Republican, did not seek re-election. Succeeded by the Republican Hoover.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Democrats Need a Hero. They Actually Already Have One

Reverse engineering the best running mate for a Kamala Harris presidential bid leads to one very obvious choice.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[Copernicus]

Harry Truman dropped out and his pkacement lost.
LBJ dropped out and his replacement lost.
McGovern cowardly dropped his VP pick and he got trounced.

Doesn’t anyone in the Democratic Party lean history or from it?

No.

And another thing that comes to mind is that on the off chance that the Democrats unify behind Harris right away, she's gonna need a running mate. As much as I hate to say it, the party is going to have to pick an experienced white man to balance the ticket in the way I talked about earlier. Newsom? Maybe. I've seen some suggestions that Mark Kelly (AZ Senator, fighter pilot, astronaut) would poll well in either role.

I dunno. We're in uncharted territory for sure.

If it's "uncharted territory", then arguments based on history become less predictive of the future.

I think that "experienced white man" is a highly overrated qualification. Newsom would not help the ticket. If that is a consideration, then someone from a swing state like Pennsylvania or Michigan would make far more sense. Democrats are unlikely to lose California no matter who is running against Donald Trump. Kelly would be a great choice, but, as has already been pointed out, that would expose a Senate seat for Democrats in a state (term ends in 2029) that has a history of voting Republican.

 

[Ford]

The Democrats Need a Hero. They Actually Already Have One

Reverse engineering the best running mate for a Kamala Harris presidential bid leads to one very obvious choice.

www.thedailybeast.com

I remember watching the debate between him and Blake "Alien in a Human Suit" Masters. Yes, Kelly won the election, but his debate performance was terrible.

 

[pood]

I think Harris will be the nominee. A potentially great choice as running mate would be Andy Beshear, who is probably a future presidential candidate anyway.

 

[pood]

Andy Beshear

 

[Elixir]

Perhaps someone could clear up some things for me.
1. If Biden steps down does Harris automatically become the Democratic nominee?
2. If the answer to 1 is no then why was she ever made VP? I would have thought being VP meant you were considered suitable for the role of president or presidential nominee.
3. If the answer to 2 is no i.e. Harris is not automatically the nominee then what happens to her when the new heir presumptive is anointed? Does she stay as VP or go (hopefully?) quietly into the night?

No, she does not automatically become the nominee.

But the campaign funds would need to be released to anyone else.