Will China Invade Taiwan?

[funinspace]

It's not good for the US and the world to have China go into a severe economic downturn. But certainly, it's much better for world to slow down China's expansion plans via hurting their economy than confronting China militarily.

I think it works like this.

As long as the communist party sits secure in China and trade keeps working out for China it'll be business as usual. No invasion of Taiwan. Money keeps flowing. The Chinese are happy. Chinese happiness is what this is all about. The moment the Chinese people stop being happy, the government position gets precarious. That's when they might go to war in the tried and tested method of dictators distracting their unhappy population with an external enemy.

There's not going to be a war right now. That might change rapidly. Who knows how much China groans and creaks within. But as it looks now, it's pretty cool.

Ditto^

Additionally, I find it ironic to talk of 'China's expansion plans'. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think the PRC has any right to forcibly reclaim Taiwan, but it would be a 'reclaiming'. Taiwan broke away during their civil war with the loosing side fleeing to this Island that was part of China during their civil war.

The US like to portray China as some sort of expansionist/aggressive empire. Yet, who has fought 2 wars around who's border countries? Who has their military stationed in countries surrounding who's borders and local seas? Sure, the Korean war is easy to justify on the US side. However, the Vietnam war was 99% BS.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It's not good for the US and the world to have China go into a severe economic downturn. But certainly, it's much better for world to slow down China's expansion plans via hurting their economy than confronting China militarily.

I think it works like this.

As long as the communist party sits secure in China and trade keeps working out for China it'll be business as usual. No invasion of Taiwan. Money keeps flowing. The Chinese are happy. Chinese happiness is what this is all about. The moment the Chinese people stop being happy, the government position gets precarious. That's when they might go to war in the tried and tested method of dictators distracting their unhappy population with an external enemy.

There's not going to be a war right now. That might change rapidly. Who knows how much China groans and creaks within. But as it looks now, it's pretty cool.

Ditto^

Additionally, I find it ironic to talk of 'China's expansion plans'. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think the PRC has any right to forcibly reclaim Taiwan, but it would be a 'reclaiming'. Taiwan broke away during their civil war with the loosing side fleeing to this Island that was part of China during their civil war.

The US like to portray China as some sort of expansionist/aggressive empire. Yet, who has fought 2 wars around who's border countries? Who has their military stationed in countries surrounding who's borders and local seas? Sure, the Korean war is easy to justify on the US side. However, the Vietnam war was 99% BS.

Well, that isn't right. "Taiwan" didn't break away from China during a civil war. There was a civil war in China. One side lost. That side escaped to a sovereign country, Taiwan, and then took it over. There are native Taiwanese who have never been a part of China.

 

[funinspace]

Ditto^

Additionally, I find it ironic to talk of 'China's expansion plans'. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think the PRC has any right to forcibly reclaim Taiwan, but it would be a 'reclaiming'. Taiwan broke away during their civil war with the loosing side fleeing to this Island that was part of China during their civil war.

The US like to portray China as some sort of expansionist/aggressive empire. Yet, who has fought 2 wars around who's border countries? Who has their military stationed in countries surrounding who's borders and local seas? Sure, the Korean war is easy to justify on the US side. However, the Vietnam war was 99% BS.

Well, that isn't right. "Taiwan" didn't break away from China during a civil war. There was a civil war in China. One side lost. That side escaped to a sovereign country, Taiwan, and then took it over. There are native Taiwanese who have never been a part of China.

LOL..just when do you think Taiwan was a 'sovereign country' of natives?

Taiwan was part of China before the US revolution from the UK, and ruled it for over 200 years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Japanese_rule_(1895–1945)

In 1683, following the defeat of Koxinga's grandson by an armada led by Admiral Shi Lang of southern Fujian, the Qing dynasty formally annexed Taiwan, placing it under the jurisdiction of Fujian province. The Qing imperial government tried to reduce piracy and vagrancy in the area, issuing a series of edicts to manage immigration and respect aboriginal land rights. Immigrants mostly from southern Fujian continued to enter Taiwan. The border between taxpaying lands and what was considered "savage" lands shifted eastward, with some aborigines becoming sinicized while others retreated into the mountains. During this time, there were a number of conflicts between different ethnic groups of Han Chinese, Quanzhou Minnanese feuding with Zhangzhou and Hakkas peasants, and major clan fights between Minnans (Hoklos), Hakkas and aborigines too.

Then Japan took Taiwan from China via war for 50 years. After WWII, Japan had to give up its lands of conquest (but for the pesky Senkaku Islands). China pretty much decended back into civil war with the end of WWII. But sure, some native ethnic people have survived to this day...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Ethnic_groups

The ROC government reports that over 95 per cent of the population is Han Taiwanese, of which the majority includes descendants of early Han Chinese immigrants who arrived in Taiwan in large numbers starting in the 18th century. Alternatively, the ethnic groups of Taiwan may be roughly divided among the Hoklo (70 per cent), the Hakka (14 per cent), the Waishengren (14 per cent), and indigenous peoples (2 per cent)

 

[Harry Bosch]

LOL..just when do you think Taiwan was a 'sovereign country' of natives?

Taiwan was part of China before the US revolution from the UK, and ruled it for over 200 years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Japanese_rule_(1895–1945)

In 1683, following the defeat of Koxinga's grandson by an armada led by Admiral Shi Lang of southern Fujian, the Qing dynasty formally annexed Taiwan, placing it under the jurisdiction of Fujian province. The Qing imperial government tried to reduce piracy and vagrancy in the area, issuing a series of edicts to manage immigration and respect aboriginal land rights. Immigrants mostly from southern Fujian continued to enter Taiwan. The border between taxpaying lands and what was considered "savage" lands shifted eastward, with some aborigines becoming sinicized while others retreated into the mountains. During this time, there were a number of conflicts between different ethnic groups of Han Chinese, Quanzhou Minnanese feuding with Zhangzhou and Hakkas peasants, and major clan fights between Minnans (Hoklos), Hakkas and aborigines too.

Then Japan took Taiwan from China via war for 50 years. After WWII, Japan had to give up its lands of conquest (but for the pesky Senkaku Islands). China pretty much decended back into civil war with the end of WWII. But sure, some native ethnic people have survived to this day...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Ethnic_groups

The ROC government reports that over 95 per cent of the population is Han Taiwanese, of which the majority includes descendants of early Han Chinese immigrants who arrived in Taiwan in large numbers starting in the 18th century. Alternatively, the ethnic groups of Taiwan may be roughly divided among the Hoklo (70 per cent), the Hakka (14 per cent), the Waishengren (14 per cent), and indigenous peoples (2 per cent)

There is architectural evidence of people living on Taiwan dating back to around 200 BC. Then the Dutch first colonized the island in the early 1600s. Then Spain took a turn. Another group. Then yes, China took it over for about 200 years. Then the Japanese. So is it your opinion that since China ruled them the longest that they should have the legal right? To me it's very analogous to England thinking that they should have the right to take back the US since they ruled America for so long. Yea, I hate to say it, but us good for nothing "natives" can manage ourselves without our overlord conquerors.

 

[funinspace]

LOL..just when do you think Taiwan was a 'sovereign country' of natives?

Taiwan was part of China before the US revolution from the UK, and ruled it for over 200 years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Japanese_rule_(1895–1945)


Then Japan took Taiwan from China via war for 50 years. After WWII, Japan had to give up its lands of conquest (but for the pesky Senkaku Islands). China pretty much decended back into civil war with the end of WWII. But sure, some native ethnic people have survived to this day...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Ethnic_groups

There is architectural evidence of people living on Taiwan dating back to around 200 BC. Then the Dutch first colonized the island in the early 1600s. Then Spain took a turn. Another group. Then yes, China took it over for about 200 years. Then the Japanese. So is it your opinion that since China ruled them the longest that they should have the legal right? To me it's very analogous to England thinking that they should have the right to take back the US since they ruled America for so long. Yea, I hate to say it, but us good for nothing "natives" can manage ourselves without our overlord conquerors.

Say wut? My opinion is/was that a phrase "expansion plans" has little resemblance to the situation between the PRC and Taiwan. Such a phrase seems right out of US neocon projections upon whoever we don't like. I explicitly stated that I don't think that the PRC has the right to forcibly reclaim Taiwan. China didn't just take Taiwan over for 200 years, it included large migrations to the island, becoming the dominant population a long long time ago. The few 'natives' haven't been a factor in Taiwanese international issues in 300-400 years, as they are now about only 2% of the population. It is nearly like discussing the impacted rights/legalities of the Iroquois in the north east United States...

Comparatively, Israel confers land rights to Jews in East Jerusalem from the same time frame as the Chinese civil war, when Taiwan was part of China. And they are forcefully shoving these 'rights' down the throats of Palestinians, generations later, who call these properties their homes/businesses. And the US goes 'meh'...

 

[DBT]

Seems more like posturing, posing and muscle flexing than an actual threat to invade Taiwan, which would be a very stupid move.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Seems more like posturing, posing and muscle flexing than an actual threat to invade Taiwan, which would be a very stupid move.

Yeah. China likes to threaten. I think it's more for domestic consumption, though--they know they don't have the ability to carry out most of their threats.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Seems more like posturing, posing and muscle flexing than an actual threat to invade Taiwan, which would be a very stupid move.

Yeah. China likes to threaten. I think it's more for domestic consumption, though--they know they don't have the ability to carry out most of their threats.

But this is how all wars start. There's a bunch of posturing and threatening. And if the aggressive party doesn't get much of a pushback they push further, and further, and further, at every step scanning for the aggressive push back. This is how Putin grabbed Crimea.

This time they got pushback immediately. China had a go to check if Taiwan was ripe for the plucking. It wasn't. So they went back to sleep.

 

[TomC]

We can hope that the Chinese government learned some lessons from recent U.S. history.

Remember 2003, when the Bush Administration tried to force Iraq back into line with a military invasion?
I do.

And I know how well that turned out.

Tom

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

We can hope that the Chinese government learned some lessons from recent U.S. history.

Remember 2003, when the Bush Administration tried to force Iraq back into line with a military invasion?
I do.

And I know how well that turned out.

Tom

Do you really think that's a valid comparison? China is not a functioning democracy.

 

[TomC]

We can hope that the Chinese government learned some lessons from recent U.S. history.

Remember 2003, when the Bush Administration tried to force Iraq back into line with a military invasion?
I do.

And I know how well that turned out.

Tom

Do you really think that's a valid comparison? China is not a functioning democracy.

I don't understand your point. Please explain what government style has to do with invading other states.

And frankly, I'm not sure the U.S. qualified as a functioning democracy in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. The Bush Administration did a lot of lying to get the American people to support that war.
Tom

 

[Harry Bosch]

We can hope that the Chinese government learned some lessons from recent U.S. history.

Remember 2003, when the Bush Administration tried to force Iraq back into line with a military invasion?
I do.

And I know how well that turned out.

Tom

Do you really think that's a valid comparison? China is not a functioning democracy.

I don't understand your point. Please explain what government style has to do with invading other states.

And frankly, I'm not sure the U.S. qualified as a functioning democracy in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. The Bush Administration did a lot of lying to get the American people to support that war.
Tom

We pulled out of Iraq because it wasn't popular. The Chinese leaders couldn't care less about if a war were popular or not with their population. China killed more civilians in Tiananmen square peacefully protesting that US soldiers who died in Iraq.

 

[DBT]

They may care what the internanational community thinks of them. Negative feedback may drive the party to react against the 'enemies of China.'

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

We can hope that the Chinese government learned some lessons from recent U.S. history.

Remember 2003, when the Bush Administration tried to force Iraq back into line with a military invasion?
I do.

And I know how well that turned out.

Tom

Do you really think that's a valid comparison? China is not a functioning democracy.

I don't understand your point. Please explain what government style has to do with invading other states.

And frankly, I'm not sure the U.S. qualified as a functioning democracy in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. The Bush Administration did a lot of lying to get the American people to support that war.
Tom

Don't be daff. China is a police state. People don't vote or protest or have freedoms.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Oh boy. The Chinese government is extremely hurt. Those meanies at the Olympics showed a map of China without Taiwan. And this dramatically hurt the emotions of the Chinese people. I feel so bad for the Chinese people over this. So sad.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...f-the-chinese-people/ar-AAMwvL2?ocid=msedgntp

 

[funinspace]

Oh boy. The Chinese government is extremely hurt. Those meanies at the Olympics showed a map of China without Taiwan. And this dramatically hurt the emotions of the Chinese people. I feel so bad for the Chinese people over this. So sad.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...f-the-chinese-people/ar-AAMwvL2?ocid=msedgntp

Good thing US leadership doesn't get butthurt and do stupid things like rename food to stuff like Freedom Fries...over an ally not backing a US hard on to go to war...

 

[zorq]

Oh boy. The Chinese government is extremely hurt. Those meanies at the Olympics showed a map of China without Taiwan. And this dramatically hurt the emotions of the Chinese people. I feel so bad for the Chinese people over this. So sad.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...f-the-chinese-people/ar-AAMwvL2?ocid=msedgntp

It's hard to tell if Chinese officials are sincerely serious about incidents like this or if it is just a mask that they wear so that they can maintain their "casus belli" or their illusory claim on Taiwan. I mean clearly the "One China" policy has been a non-inconsequential bargaining chip in China's foreign negotiations over the years which makes it "serious." But surely the sane Chinese people and significant Chinese Officials understand that Taiwan isn't part of China in any way shape or form... right?

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Oh boy. The Chinese government is extremely hurt. Those meanies at the Olympics showed a map of China without Taiwan. And this dramatically hurt the emotions of the Chinese people. I feel so bad for the Chinese people over this. So sad.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...f-the-chinese-people/ar-AAMwvL2?ocid=msedgntp

It's hard to tell if Chinese officials are sincerely serious about incidents like this or if it is just a mask that they wear so that they can maintain their "casus belli" or their illusory claim on Taiwan. I mean clearly the "One China" policy has been a non-inconsequential bargaining chip in China's foreign negotiations over the years which makes it "serious." But surely the sane Chinese people and significant Chinese Officials understand that Taiwan isn't part of China in any way shape or form... right?

Why do you think so?

My impression is that Xi Jinping will very probably launch an invasion before he leaves office - probably in the second half of the decade.

The reason? It seems to me that the PLA is preparing seriously for that, and Xi wants to be seen as the greatest chairman ever, which he probably can't do without taking Taiwan and perhaps some of the South China Sea islands for good measure.

 

[barbos]

Come on, military invasion is stupid, Xi knows that.

 

[DBT]

It's not a rational move, but with huge egos, politics and sociopathic elements at work, who knows what can happen.