Will China Invade Taiwan?

[DrZoidberg]

I think what Xi Jinping has in mind is unification, like what happened with Hong Kong. I somehow doubt China will invade Taiwan. While China's economy keeps expanding Xi Jinping's position in China is secure. Why would he risk that?

China is not Russia. Jinping doesn't sit as security as Putin does.

To be the leader who reunified that last piece of China would be quite an accomplishment for Xi Jinping and a very proud moment for China.

Though I think China will work toward breaking the morale of Taiwan. To let them know they will never be safe, will be constantly harassed as long as they continue to resist.
I can’t see any military action being taken by China. Al least not until after the 2022 Olympics.

Yeah, exactly. I think it is harassment. Not a prelude to war

 

[funinspace]

A mishmash of thoughts on some of the things I've read on this thread...

Firstly, I don't see China invading Taiwan any time soon. For one thing, each year that goes by China gains economic and military advantage. Second, the world depends on Taiwan for 60% of it's microprocessors (and the most advanced in production). So even if China would loose access, so would the world. But either way, yeah the world economy would get flushed... I also doubt they would have to bomb the island to smithereens to get control.

Taiwan's military has a lot of improving to do. They are now getting their first batch of the most modern F-16 C/D's, to compliment their 113 aging F-16's. First, this is a small number of fighters. Second, the addition may not be any better than the latest Chinese fighters. The PRC has roughly 600 plus relatively modern fighter jets, as well as relatively modern AWACs.

This article starts off about their effort to get their first modern dedicated mine launching ships (they now have one, since this was written in 2019).
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...ns-will-have-serious-mine-laying-capabilities

The present state of affairs has only underscored the limitations of Taiwan's aging military, as a whole. The country is in the process of upgrading its F-16 Viper fighter jet fleet and is now looking to acquire more modern main battle tanks, among a host of other initiatives.
<snip>
But questions remain about whether Taiwan has the resources to actually pursue all of these major military modernization programs, especially with regards to its Navy. The country’ submarine production schedule is particularly aggressive, with the goal of having the shipyard, which is just now itself under construction, deliver the first of eight new boats by 2024.

Cost considerations could certainly help explain the shift in focus toward naval mining. Taiwan would hardly be the first small Navy to go this route in order to present credible obstacles against larger potential opponents.

Still, a focus on asymmetric capabilities notwithstanding, Taiwan simply does not have the industrial capacity to match that of mainland China. If Lung Teh does end up building all eight new corvettes based on the Tou Chiang design by 2025, it will only be building one or two of these small ships each year, while the Chinese churn out significant numbers of submarines and major surface combatants, including multiple examples of the new advanced Type 055 destroyer.

China now has more combat ships than the US, not that this make it superior in any way. However, they can place 30 plus attack subs in the field. They also have a couple thousand SRBM's that could quickly overwhelm defense systems and probably take most all of Taiwan's airfields out of commission within 24 hours. With 200 or so fighter/bombers coming in right behind the SRBM's, I don't see Taiwan's defenses holding up very well. Then China would have full air superiority.

SRBM Ref: https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/china/

If China intended to invade, I doubt they would do like the US with their 6 month build up for Iraq. As I doubt that their leaders fear the reaction to the death of a few thousand of their solders, they could risk a fast moving attack without having the most obvious and visible preparations. Tied to one of their usual big military exercises, that could be turned to an invasion effort within 48 hours, to support all the small advanced efforts that could be kept secret. Also, unless war was super obvious, would Taiwan really lay mines in their own shipping and fishing areas? Personally, I would expect that Taiwan would wait until it was too late to matter.

(assuming a surprise China attack) If the US wanted to come to Taiwan's aid, the fighter jets would probably have to come in via air craft carrier. This would literally be the first US war since WWII where we were fully dependent on US carrier based air support (bombers could still fly in). We would probably not want to attack the Chinese mainland for fear of broadening the war front to places like Korea. And personally, I doubt that Japan would join the fray. So, I'm not sure just how hard a land invasion would be, if China had air superiority, and were not facing significant interference by mines. Again, not that I expect it to happen...

One of China's weak points is their large dependency on imported oil, which would be easy to chock off...another good article pretty much on this topic:
https://asiatimes.com/2021/05/china-avoiding-hot-war-for-now/

China now has 2 modern amphibious assault ships:
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-military-amphibious/

he 40,000-tonne Type 075 ships are a kind of small aircraft carrier with accommodation for up to 900 troops and space for heavy equipment and landing craft, according to Western military experts who have studied satellite images and photographs of the new vessels. They will carry up to 30 helicopters at first; later they could carry fighter jets, if China can build short take off and vertical landing aircraft like the U.S. F-35B.

The first Type 075 was launched last September and the second in April, according to reports in China’s official military media

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I didn’t realize the Taiwanese had so much defensive firepower.

It doesn't take that much to stop an amphibious invasion. You need overwhelming firepower to force a landing and it's gotten much harder to do that these days. The Harpoon missile can be fired from land vehicles, it probably could be jury-rigged to fire from a large pickup although the driver would have to flee before launch. A bunch of them are hiding 30 miles inland. You'll need some very good air defenses to keep your landing fleet out of Davy Jones' locker. Or what happens when you seed your coastal waters with command-controlled CAPTOR mines? Near the coast there's going to be a lot of crud on the sea floor, sweeping them is going to be very, very hard--and the invaders will be sitting ducks while they're trying to sweep them--and can you be confident you got all of them? Miss one and you'll only find out when sonar screams "torpedo!"

Air defenses against the Taiwan defenders aren't very important if the Taiwanese air force is previously destroyed, mostly on the ground by a massive missile attack. Still, it's not easy to beat the ground forces in their own territory.

No--I'm not talking about aircraft. I'm sure China can establish air superiority over Taiwan. The Harpoon is an anti-ship missile. While the ground-launch version isn't widely used it does exist. I'm saying China would need very good anti-air defenses over Taiwan to knock it down before it finds the amphibious assault ship. It's a sea-skimmer which means most of the older aircraft and missiles won't be able to engage--the good stuff can but they don't have all that much of it. (A simple radar seeker can't see a sea-skimmer at all, you have to have a doppler radar to distinguish the missile from the ocean.)

It takes time to lock up the rocket lifting off. Once it's locked up you have to study it for a bit to figure out whether it's a real missile or just a basically harmless artillery bombardment rocket. (If it settles down to sea-skimming it's real.) Then it comes down to a race between whether your missile gets there before the ship gets hit. And what if the guys shooting the Harpoon carefully arranged it so the target is in the way? An anti-air cruiser won't be able to lock it up at all, it would have to be shot down by an aircraft.

And that harmless artillery rocket? What if it's a GPS-guided version aimed at where some spotters have figured out the ship is going to be? Protecting the ships is not easy. And you didn't even address the CAPTOR threat.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Since WWII it's been essentially impossible to make an opposed amphibious landing without air supremacy. Ships are so vulnerable to modern aircraft that they cannot operate in areas where an enemy airforce has even fairly limited capability. Look at the Falklands - a tiny number of Argentine aircraft and aircrews were able to sink Royal Naval vessels that had state of the art defences and their own air support.

The defenses didn't matter--they never tried to engage. The problem is the computer correctly identified the inbound as "Exocet" and incorrectly concluded it was friendly.

 

[bilby]

Air defenses against the Taiwan defenders aren't very important if the Taiwanese air force is previously destroyed, mostly on the ground by a massive missile attack. Still, it's not easy to beat the ground forces in their own territory.

No--I'm not talking about aircraft. I'm sure China can establish air superiority over Taiwan. The Harpoon is an anti-ship missile. While the ground-launch version isn't widely used it does exist. I'm saying China would need very good anti-air defenses over Taiwan to knock it down before it finds the amphibious assault ship. It's a sea-skimmer which means most of the older aircraft and missiles won't be able to engage--the good stuff can but they don't have all that much of it. (A simple radar seeker can't see a sea-skimmer at all, you have to have a doppler radar to distinguish the missile from the ocean.)

It takes time to lock up the rocket lifting off. Once it's locked up you have to study it for a bit to figure out whether it's a real missile or just a basically harmless artillery bombardment rocket. (If it settles down to sea-skimming it's real.) Then it comes down to a race between whether your missile gets there before the ship gets hit. And what if the guys shooting the Harpoon carefully arranged it so the target is in the way? An anti-air cruiser won't be able to lock it up at all, it would have to be shot down by an aircraft.

And that harmless artillery rocket? What if it's a GPS-guided version aimed at where some spotters have figured out the ship is going to be? Protecting the ships is not easy. And you didn't even address the CAPTOR threat.

Air superiority isn't good enough.

When one plane can take out one ship, you need air supremacy, unless you are happy to have your ships become artificial reefs.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Air defenses against the Taiwan defenders aren't very important if the Taiwanese air force is previously destroyed, mostly on the ground by a massive missile attack. Still, it's not easy to beat the ground forces in their own territory.

No--I'm not talking about aircraft. I'm sure China can establish air superiority over Taiwan. The Harpoon is an anti-ship missile. While the ground-launch version isn't widely used it does exist. I'm saying China would need very good anti-air defenses over Taiwan to knock it down before it finds the amphibious assault ship. It's a sea-skimmer which means most of the older aircraft and missiles won't be able to engage--the good stuff can but they don't have all that much of it. (A simple radar seeker can't see a sea-skimmer at all, you have to have a doppler radar to distinguish the missile from the ocean.)

It takes time to lock up the rocket lifting off. Once it's locked up you have to study it for a bit to figure out whether it's a real missile or just a basically harmless artillery bombardment rocket. (If it settles down to sea-skimming it's real.) Then it comes down to a race between whether your missile gets there before the ship gets hit. And what if the guys shooting the Harpoon carefully arranged it so the target is in the way? An anti-air cruiser won't be able to lock it up at all, it would have to be shot down by an aircraft.

And that harmless artillery rocket? What if it's a GPS-guided version aimed at where some spotters have figured out the ship is going to be? Protecting the ships is not easy. And you didn't even address the CAPTOR threat.

Ah, I see what you mean now.
I do not think GPS-guided weapons would be a problem for China. They'll probably have no problem taking out GPS in the region when they attack. They already can do that by taking out the satellites, but maybe they can do it in a temporary manner already, and if not, they will have that capability when they attack - I'm pretty sure they won't risk attack by GPS. It's too much of a risk, and the capabilities to counter it are already known and available to China; at most, they may want to scale up some of them, which they can before this decade's end.

The harpoon missiles Taiwan has so far are either ship-launched or aircraft-launched as far as I know. Granted they might be adapted for ground-based use, but it seems they haven't been for whatever reason. Now, Taiwanese submarines still might use it, but surface ships and aircraft will probably be goners before China attempts to land. And China's type 075 will probably be escorted by Type 55 and anti-submarine ships and planes.

But, there's a deal so that Taiwan can get 400 land-based harpoon missiles. If they get it, yes, that's a problem for China. However,

There are gaps owing to the Harpoon’s fairly modest, 70-mile range. But air-launched Harpoons with their somewhat greater range—100 miles or so—could cover that gap. It’s not for no reason that Taiwan frequently stages F-16 fighters—Taipei’s only jet that’s compatible with the Harpoon—at Penghu.

China could take out the airfields and the F16s first, then go for the gaps. If they want to cover that, they'll need more harpoons, or more precisely new places to launch them from.


Of course, China can always go for the option of destroying ports and airfields and blockade Taiwan for years.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Air defenses against the Taiwan defenders aren't very important if the Taiwanese air force is previously destroyed, mostly on the ground by a massive missile attack. Still, it's not easy to beat the ground forces in their own territory.

No--I'm not talking about aircraft. I'm sure China can establish air superiority over Taiwan. The Harpoon is an anti-ship missile. While the ground-launch version isn't widely used it does exist. I'm saying China would need very good anti-air defenses over Taiwan to knock it down before it finds the amphibious assault ship. It's a sea-skimmer which means most of the older aircraft and missiles won't be able to engage--the good stuff can but they don't have all that much of it. (A simple radar seeker can't see a sea-skimmer at all, you have to have a doppler radar to distinguish the missile from the ocean.)

It takes time to lock up the rocket lifting off. Once it's locked up you have to study it for a bit to figure out whether it's a real missile or just a basically harmless artillery bombardment rocket. (If it settles down to sea-skimming it's real.) Then it comes down to a race between whether your missile gets there before the ship gets hit. And what if the guys shooting the Harpoon carefully arranged it so the target is in the way? An anti-air cruiser won't be able to lock it up at all, it would have to be shot down by an aircraft.

And that harmless artillery rocket? What if it's a GPS-guided version aimed at where some spotters have figured out the ship is going to be? Protecting the ships is not easy. And you didn't even address the CAPTOR threat.

Air superiority isn't good enough.

When one plane can take out one ship, you need air supremacy, unless you are happy to have your ships become artificial reefs.

When you destroy all of the airfields from which the planes can operate - and the aircraft based on it -, you got air supremacy - well, if you have planes. But in any case, what China would have to do is destroy all of the airfields using missiles, regardless of how many planes of its own it can use.

 

[bilby]

Air superiority isn't good enough.

When one plane can take out one ship, you need air supremacy, unless you are happy to have your ships become artificial reefs.

When you destroy all of the airfields from which the planes can operate - and the aircraft based on it -, you got air supremacy - well, if you have planes. But in any case, what China would have to do is destroy all of the airfields using missiles, regardless of how many planes of its own it can use.

Sure.

But destroying all of Taiwan's airfields isn't something China can just do. There's likely to be a defensive response from Taiwan against any attempt to do that.

And if the US decides that they're not entirely happy with China attacking Taiwan, they have plenty of aircraft carriers that can supply air defence to the Taiwanese, if the airfields are permanently (or semi-permanently) taken out.

So the whole thing really does depend on the US remaining neutral - which seems highly unlikely.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

But destroying all of Taiwan's airfields isn't something China can just do. There's likely to be a defensive response from Taiwan against any attempt to do that.

From what I read, yes, China can just do that. And yes, there would certainly be a defensive response. But it would be insufficient. China's missiles can overwhelm the missile defenses with numbers, destroying them alongside the airfields, even if the defenses could target and destroy China's missiles in smaller numbers. That is without even using have hypersonic gliding vehicles capable (even individually) of avoiding any air defenses. China may not have many of those yet, but they are operational and China will have plenty in a few years - but even without them, just making more and more DF26 would keep overwhelming the defenses.

And if the US decides that they're not entirely happy with China attacking Taiwan, they have plenty of aircraft carriers that can supply air defence to the Taiwanese, if the airfields are permanently (or semi-permanently) taken out.

Yes, the question is whether the carries can get close enough to launch their planes without being destroyed. China is making more and more flying-wing stealth drones, which can be used and target the carriers. And they already have the missiles to take them out. I do not know whether the carriers would survive now, but I think they very probably won't in a few years (barring a very big breakthrough in military tech).

So the whole thing really does depend on the US remaining neutral - which seems highly unlikely.

I agree it's unlikely. But I don't think they US is likely to win that war. Maybe today, but in several years, it seems very difficult. Then again, there is always the chance of big breakthroughs in military tech by either side so who knows.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I’d send troops in on Trojan container ships.

 

[funinspace]

The land based Harpoon missiles seem to have been delayed until 2024 (Ref: https://navalpost.com/taiwan-harpoon-coastal-defense-system-delivery-delays/). But even if and when they get those, China does have AWACs with phased array radar that should mitigate the Harpoon threat to some degree. Much of this is a bunch of guessing as China and Taiwan don't have any significant modern combat experience. Add that the US has not had to primarily fight a carrier based war since WWII. And the US doesn't have a good feel for just how good or bad the modern Chinese weaponry is. Lots of unknowns...

From what I read, yes, China can just do that. And yes, there would certainly be a defensive response. But it would be insufficient. China's missiles can overwhelm the missile defenses with numbers, destroying them alongside the airfields, even if the defenses could target and destroy China's missiles in smaller numbers. That is without even using have hypersonic gliding vehicles capable (even individually) of avoiding any air defenses. China may not have many of those yet, but they are operational and China will have plenty in a few years - but even without them, just making more and more DF26 would keep overwhelming the defenses.

Yeah, I agree, that Taiwan's air bases defense wouldn't have a chance. They just don't have the numbers on their side.

Yes, the question is whether the carries can get close enough to launch their planes without being destroyed. China is making more and more flying-wing stealth drones, which can be used and target the carriers. And they already have the missiles to take them out. I do not know whether the carriers would survive now, but I think they very probably won't in a few years (barring a very big breakthrough in military tech).

The US typically only has roughly 1/3 of its carriers deployed at any given time, due to retrofits/repairs for 1/3, and 1/3 having port time. The US rarely has more than 2 carriers in any given area, but on occasion has a 3 carrier overlap. At the same time, US carriers are very well defending by their flotilla. And if they stayed on the eastern side of Taiwan, it would be a tough slog for China to attack. But the risks for both sides would be immense. The odds of the US having anything more than 2 carriers within less than a week's sailing time away is next to zero.

So the whole thing really does depend on the US remaining neutral - which seems highly unlikely.

I agree it's unlikely. But I don't think they US is likely to win that war. Maybe today, but in several years, it seems very difficult. Then again, there is always the chance of big breakthroughs in military tech by either side so who knows.

Ah, like the US didn't stay neutral in the Ukraine? It is really hard to say IMPOV what the US would do, as the military risks are very high. This is not some sort of Iraq dust up. This would be real war with real casualties. And if the US directly went into combat against Chinese warplanes, where does the battle lines stop? Just around Taiwan? Does it bleed to the Chinese mainland? Does China leave SK alone? Even in the Vietnam war we left China alone. This is in their back yard, and much more personal than just fucking with the US over Vietnam...

 

[funinspace]

I’d send troops in on Trojan container ships.

Is their that much demand for condoms in Taiwan?

 

[TV and credit cards]

I’d send troops in on Trojan container ships.

Is their that much demand for condoms in Taiwan?

Well, there are few good insertion points for an amphibious assault and they are, like pa with his shotgun, well defended.

 

[Elixir]

Does it bleed to the Chinese mainland? Does China leave SK alone?

If Trump gets re-installed in 2024 and the Chinese move on Taiwan, he'll probably nuke them ("why do we have nukes if we can't use them?") in retaliation for trying to help Hillary beat him in 2016.

 

[funinspace]

I’d send troops in on Trojan container ships.

Is their that much demand for condoms in Taiwan?

Well, there are few good insertion points for an amphibious assault and they are, like pa with his shotgun, well defended.

Your linky:

Not only that, but China would face an opponent who has been preparing for war for almost 70 years.

At mass anti-invasion drills in May, Taiwan military spokesman Maj. Gen. Chen Chung-Chi said the island knew it had to always be “combat-ready.”
<snip>
Chinese troops could be dropped in from the air, but a lack of paratroopers in the PLA makes it unlikely. If the PLA held a position on Taiwan, and could reinforce with troops from the mainland to face off about 150,000 Taiwan troops, as well as more than 2.5 million reservists, it would have to push through the island’s western mud flats and mountains, with only narrow roads to assist them, towards Taipei.

Now Wiki says the PRC has around 30,000 paratroopers. The article seems a little skewed on the paratrooper front as well, as they would only be one part of the equation. Along with blather about F-16's using freeways as emergency runways, which is laughable, when China would in all probability have nearly full command of the sky within 24 - 48 hours.

A different linky:
https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/handle/1773/46343

Taiwan’s defense budget continues to be a friction point in U.S.-Taiwan defense relations. Despite having adopted allocating 3 percent of its GDP towards defense as a target, Taipei continues to hover around 2 percent in annual defense spending.

Israel, who by most anyone's definition is one of the most prepared for war against all numeric odds, comes in at over 5% of GDP for the military. Taiwan's 2% spending argues that they aren't that well prepared to stand up to a large foe...

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ah, I see what you mean now.
I do not think GPS-guided weapons would be a problem for China. They'll probably have no problem taking out GPS in the region when they attack. They already can do that by taking out the satellites, but maybe they can do it in a temporary manner already, and if not, they will have that capability when they attack - I'm pretty sure they won't risk attack by GPS. It's too much of a risk, and the capabilities to counter it are already known and available to China; at most, they may want to scale up some of them, which they can before this decade's end.

Taking out the GPS satellites would be an act of war against the US, not merely Taiwan, and would involve ASATs far more powerful than anything they have demonstrated. The birds are in 12 hour orbits, not low orbit.

The harpoon missiles Taiwan has so far are either ship-launched or aircraft-launched as far as I know. Granted they might be adapted for ground-based use, but it seems they haven't been for whatever reason. Now, Taiwanese submarines still might use it, but surface ships and aircraft will probably be goners before China attempts to land. And China's type 075 will probably be escorted by Type 55 and anti-submarine ships and planes.

Ship/Sub/Land launched versions of the Harpoon are quite similar--it's the same missile, different launch packaging. I would think Taiwan would have the ability to improvise them. (And they're all really just the air-launched version with a rocket stuck on it's ass to get it up to flight speed.)

But, there's a deal so that Taiwan can get 400 land-based harpoon missiles. If they get it, yes, that's a problem for China. However,

There are gaps owing to the Harpoon’s fairly modest, 70-mile range. But air-launched Harpoons with their somewhat greater range—100 miles or so—could cover that gap. It’s not for no reason that Taiwan frequently stages F-16 fighters—Taipei’s only jet that’s compatible with the Harpoon—at Penghu.

China could take out the airfields and the F16s first, then go for the gaps. If they want to cover that, they'll need more harpoons, or more precisely new places to launch them from.

To repel an amphibious invasion you don't need a lot of range, your targets are coming up to your coast.

Of course, China can always go for the option of destroying ports and airfields and blockade Taiwan for years.

The question isn't whether China can destroy Taiwan--it certainly can--but whether it can invade Taiwan. That's what we are saying they don't have the capability for.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Ah, like the US didn't stay neutral in the Ukraine? It is really hard to say IMPOV what the US would do, as the military risks are very high. This is not some sort of Iraq dust up. This would be real war with real casualties. And if the US directly went into combat against Chinese warplanes, where does the battle lines stop? Just around Taiwan? Does it bleed to the Chinese mainland? Does China leave SK alone? Even in the Vietnam war we left China alone. This is in their back yard, and much more personal than just fucking with the US over Vietnam...

The US did not have an agreement to defend Ukraine, as it does Taiwan, it seems to me.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Taking out the GPS satellites would be an act of war against the US, not merely Taiwan, and would involve ASATs far more powerful than anything they have demonstrated. The birds are in 12 hour orbits, not low orbit.

Russia can jam and spoof GPS. I'm pretty sure China will not attack until it can do so, and also destroy the satellites if needed. As for its being an act of war, sure, but one with no US fatalities, whereas Taiwan's using GPS satellites for the war would also be an act of war that would kill Chinese personnel. I'm pretty sure they'll take out GPS when they attack, temporarily maybe, or maybe permanently.

Ship/Sub/Land launched versions of the Harpoon are quite similar--it's the same missile, different launch packaging. I would think Taiwan would have the ability to improvise them. (And they're all really just the air-launched version with a rocket stuck on it's ass to get it up to flight speed.)

They may have the ability but apparently they have not done so for whatever reason. I do not know that that's going to change.

To repel an amphibious invasion you don't need a lot of range, your targets are coming up to your coast.

Yes, but you need to cover your cost, even parts of difficult access where at this point they seem to have no good defenses, and which might be vulnerable to prior Chinese attack.

The question isn't whether China can destroy Taiwan--it certainly can--but whether it can invade Taiwan. That's what we are saying they don't have the capability for.

I know, but blockading them for years then invading them would work, given at least several years prior to the attack and current trends - but again, breakthroughs are possible and hard to predict, so who knows.

 

[barbos]

Angra Mainyu, destroying GPS is an act of War against US and really the whole World.

And at this point it's pointless anyway, because they would have to destroy russian and EU system as well, They can ask Russia to turn it off of course. Taiwan is not worth nuclear war. China has no way get it back without US willingly letting it happen.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Angra Mainyu, destroying GPS is an act of War against US and really the whole World.

And at this point it's pointless anyway, because they would have to destroy russian and EU system as well, They can ask Russia to turn it off of course. Taiwan is not worth nuclear war. China has no way get it back without US willingly letting it happen.

I think jamming/spoofing/temporarily blinding GPS is more likely as long as the US stays out of the war (though I wouldn't rule out taking them out and attacking the US by surprise). But China attacks Taiwan but not the US and the US fights back, I'm pretty sure GPS and generally US satellites would be targeted with many missiles.

(and yes, they would have to block the EU system, or destroy their satellites too; I think Russia would probably turn it off as you suggest).

As for nuclear war, I do not think that the US would respond with nuclear weapons to a conventional attack by China (probably).