lpetrich
Contributor
Is Saudi Arabia the Middle East’s Next Failed State? – Consortiumnews Author Daniel Lazare:
From his experience in North Africa, he proposed a cyclic theory of history. It starts with some desert nomads conquering city people. But the conquerors become fat and lazy and they end up becoming conquered by some other desert nomads. IK himself:
He then argues that Saudi Arabia fits very well. The nation's founder, Abdulaziz ibn Saud, was a good fit for Ibn Khaldun's profile of an energetic desert warrior. But he was succeeded by six of his sons, and they were not so great. Saud, Faisal, Khalid, Fahd, Abdullah, and now Salman. About Salman's son MBS,
But many Saudi young men prefer to wait some years for a cushy government sinecure rather than be employed by some business and have less status. Much like MBS himself: "He preaches austerity and hard work, yet plunked down $500 million for his yacht, $450 million for a painting by Leonardo da Vinci, and $300 million for a French chateau. The hypocrisy is so thick that it’s almost as if he wants to be overthrown." MBS is also guilty of such nastiness as locking up some big number of princes and businessmen in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton and making them turn over billions of dollars in assets.
DL then addresses the question of who is the biggest threat to the Saudi regime. Someone like Ibn Saud himself, someone who made an alliance with the Wahhabi clerics as part of taking over. Nowadays, that would be Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. "Both are fierce, warlike, and pious, both inveigh against a Saudi regime drowning in corruption, and both would like nothing more than to parade about with the crown prince’s head on a pike." Indeed, lots of Saudis have fought in those two groups, and some rich Saudis have financed them. So if lots of AQ and IS members return home, that could be great trouble for the Saudi regime.
DL then asks "Could Saudi Arabia become the Middle East’s next failed state?"
Saudi Arabia survived the Arab Spring with some strife in Al Qatif and other Shiite areas, but not much more. But could something be worse for it? Like a split in the nation's huge royal family? In my story "Contact across the Solar System", Saudi Arabia splits up in a very ugly civil war.
He then discusses the work of Abū Zayd ‘Abd ar-Raḥmān ibn Muḥammad ibn Khaldūn al-Ḥaḍramī (1332 - 1406), usually known as Ibn Khaldun. He was born in Tunis, and he lived in various places on the North African coast and in Spain over his life. He was notable for his writings on history, work that included some pioneering sociology.
From his experience in North Africa, he proposed a cyclic theory of history. It starts with some desert nomads conquering city people. But the conquerors become fat and lazy and they end up becoming conquered by some other desert nomads. IK himself:
DL: "It’s a recurrent cycle that has held true for a remarkable number of Muslim dynasties from the seventh century on."
He then argues that Saudi Arabia fits very well. The nation's founder, Abdulaziz ibn Saud, was a good fit for Ibn Khaldun's profile of an energetic desert warrior. But he was succeeded by six of his sons, and they were not so great. Saud, Faisal, Khalid, Fahd, Abdullah, and now Salman. About Salman's son MBS,
MBS was made Secretary of Defense when he was only 29, and two months later, he attacked Yemen and then ran off to a luxury vacation in the Maldive islands in the Indian Ocean. His American counterpart was unable to reach him for several days. The next year, he came out with Vision 2030, an ambitious plan to diversify the nation's economy, reduce the power of the Wahhabi religious leaders, and reduce the nation's dependence on oil revenues and foreigners' labor.
But many Saudi young men prefer to wait some years for a cushy government sinecure rather than be employed by some business and have less status. Much like MBS himself: "He preaches austerity and hard work, yet plunked down $500 million for his yacht, $450 million for a painting by Leonardo da Vinci, and $300 million for a French chateau. The hypocrisy is so thick that it’s almost as if he wants to be overthrown." MBS is also guilty of such nastiness as locking up some big number of princes and businessmen in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton and making them turn over billions of dollars in assets.
DL then addresses the question of who is the biggest threat to the Saudi regime. Someone like Ibn Saud himself, someone who made an alliance with the Wahhabi clerics as part of taking over. Nowadays, that would be Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. "Both are fierce, warlike, and pious, both inveigh against a Saudi regime drowning in corruption, and both would like nothing more than to parade about with the crown prince’s head on a pike." Indeed, lots of Saudis have fought in those two groups, and some rich Saudis have financed them. So if lots of AQ and IS members return home, that could be great trouble for the Saudi regime.
DL then asks "Could Saudi Arabia become the Middle East’s next failed state?"
Saudi Arabia survived the Arab Spring with some strife in Al Qatif and other Shiite areas, but not much more. But could something be worse for it? Like a split in the nation's huge royal family? In my story "Contact across the Solar System", Saudi Arabia splits up in a very ugly civil war.
