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You wanna see global warming?

 
 
 
Sea of red

Sea of red

Member
Joined
May 6, 2015
Messages
150
Location
Oklahoma, Tulsa
Basic Beliefs
Atheist
It's a well repeated myth that we don't know if greenhouse gases (GHG's) are driving the current warming trend, and that perhaps another force such as the Sun is driving the warming. Now, if it was true that the Sun was driving the climate, we would expect the atmosphere to be warmed almost equally. What we actually see is a warming trend that is consistent with that of human driven climate change. The troposphere (where we experience most of our weather) is warming, while the warming levels off and cools the stratosphere.

https://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/strato_cooling.asp

Global temperatures during January - August 2011 were the third coldest on record in the lower stratosphere, according to the National Climatic Data Center, and have been generally declining in recent decades (Figure 1). Why is this important? Well, the stratosphere is that layer of the upper atmosphere approximately 14-22 km (9-14 miles) above the surface that contains our protective ozone layer. The main reason for the recent stratospheric cooling is due to the destruction of ozone by human-emitted CFC gases. Ozone absorbs solar UV radiation, which heats the surrounding air in the stratosphere. Loss of ozone means that less UV light gets absorbed, resulting in cooling of the stratosphere. Cooling of the stratosphere results in the formation of more polar stratospheric clouds, which require very cold temperatures to form. The presence of these clouds allows even more ozone destruction to occur, since the reactions responsible for ozone destruction occur much faster in clouds than in dry air. Thus, the recent cooling of the stratosphere allows high levels of harmful UV light to reach the surface. As CFC gases begin to decline in coming years thanks to banning of these substances in 1987, the stratosphere should start to warm, and ozone levels will recover.
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figure3-17-l.png


Sorry folks, it's the fossil fuels.
 
Scientific Opinion on Global Warming

The scientific consensus is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and that it is extremely likely (meaning 95% probability or higher) that this warming is predominantly caused by humans. It is likely that this mainly arises from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as from deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels, partially offset by human caused increases in aerosols; natural changes had little effect.
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A 2013 paper in Environmental Research Letters reviewed 11,944 abstracts of scientific papers matching "global warming" or "global climate change". They found 4,014 which discussed the cause of recent global warming, and of these "97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming".
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Don't trust any one given person, trust the average of many people.

We don't need to look at the science itself, because the overwhelming majority of the people doing the science have already reached a consensus. The probability that almost 100% of climate scientists are wrong is.. very low.

At this point I've pretty much accepted it, and am more curious about what the long-term impacts will be.
 
two other points of evidence to me are much more persuasive, once you are shown that CO2 and other GHGs trap heat and why...

First is the amount of new heat trapped in the ocean. Second is that with satellites looking at the earth, you can see less long wave radiation coming from the ground and ocean. The numbers fairly well balance. That to me is case closed.

Too lazy to look it up now, but go skepticalscience.com and have a look.
 
Another demonstration that comics, cartoons, buffoons tweeting, and creative science related graphics communicate much better than line drawings and text or even "I heard". bilby's post rates right up there with the Napoleon invasion and retreat from Russia graphic.

napoleonchart.gif

Note time and temperature surrounding Napoleon's adventure for relevance to global warming story.
 
fromderinside said:
Another demonstration that comics, cartoons, buffoons tweeting, and creative science related graphics communicate much better than line drawings and text or even "I heard". bilby's post rates right up there with the Napoleon invasion and retreat from Russia graphic.

View attachment 8956

Note time and temperature surrounding Napoleon's adventure for relevance to global warming story.
Click to expand...
Except most people realized they had to use their attention for more than 4 consecutive seconds and are already back to Facebook
 
Given the trend with knuckleheads like Trump in charge of the largest economy in the World, I don't hold much hope in meaningful emission control legislation happening anytime soon.
 
CO2.png

Real time data on CO2 emissions per kWh for the EU nations can be found at: https://electricitymap.tmrow.co/

Notable is that France is amongst the best performers, despite her having about a quarter of her nuclear reactor fleet offline right now for maintenance; And that Germany is a very poor performer, despite the massive investment that the nation has made in wind and solar power.

It is very obvious from this data that if you want lower CO2 emissions per kWh, Nuclear and Hydro are the way to get it. Wind and Solar are simply not doing the job - the Germans have lots of capacity in those technologies, but have to burn coal and gas to cover the times when it is neither windy nor sunny.

Poland and Estonia mostly just burn coal, and it really shows.
 
Sea of red said:
It's a well repeated myth that we don't know if greenhouse gases (GHG's) are driving the current warming trend, and that perhaps another force such as the Sun is driving the warming. Now, if it was true that the Sun was driving the climate, we would expect the atmosphere to be warmed almost equally. What we actually see is a warming trend that is consistent with that of human driven climate change. The troposphere (where we experience most of our weather) is warming, while the warming levels off and cools the stratosphere.

https://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/strato_cooling.asp

Global temperatures during January - August 2011 were the third coldest on record in the lower stratosphere, according to the National Climatic Data Center, and have been generally declining in recent decades (Figure 1). Why is this important? Well, the stratosphere is that layer of the upper atmosphere approximately 14-22 km (9-14 miles) above the surface that contains our protective ozone layer. The main reason for the recent stratospheric cooling is due to the destruction of ozone by human-emitted CFC gases. Ozone absorbs solar UV radiation, which heats the surrounding air in the stratosphere. Loss of ozone means that less UV light gets absorbed, resulting in cooling of the stratosphere. Cooling of the stratosphere results in the formation of more polar stratospheric clouds, which require very cold temperatures to form. The presence of these clouds allows even more ozone destruction to occur, since the reactions responsible for ozone destruction occur much faster in clouds than in dry air. Thus, the recent cooling of the stratosphere allows high levels of harmful UV light to reach the surface. As CFC gases begin to decline in coming years thanks to banning of these substances in 1987, the stratosphere should start to warm, and ozone levels will recover.
Click to expand...

figure3-17-l.png


Sorry folks, it's the fossil fuels.
Click to expand...

Obviously, you've been duped by the conspiracy!!!!!!

That's just what they want you to think!

Thank goodness a plucky band of oil companies are working to defend us from this sinister conspiracy run by college professors. Who knows how much damage those professors could have done to all of us?
 
repoman said:
two other points of evidence to me are much more persuasive, once you are shown that CO2 and other GHGs trap heat and why...

First is the amount of new heat trapped in the ocean. Second is that with satellites looking at the earth, you can see less long wave radiation coming from the ground and ocean. The numbers fairly well balance. That to me is case closed.

Too lazy to look it up now, but go skepticalscience.com and have a look.
Click to expand...

Science has known since the 1800s that CO2 has this effect on longer wavelengths. The only reason to believe otherwise is to deny reality because you have dunked your head too deep in the right wing propaganda trough and think that over 90% of all scientists are part of a vast international conspiracy run by Al Gore an obscure school in the UK.
 
BBC news;

''Temperatures at the North Pole could be up to 20 degrees higher than average this Christmas Eve, in what scientists say is a record-breaking heatwave.

Climate scientists say these unseasonably warm weather patterns in the Arctic region are directly linked to man-made climate change.

Temperatures throughout November and December were 5C higher than average.

It follows a summer during which Arctic sea ice reached the second-lowest extent ever recorded by satellites.''
 
DBT said:
BBC news;

''Temperatures at the North Pole could be up to 20 degrees higher than average this Christmas Eve, in what scientists say is a record-breaking heatwave.

Climate scientists say these unseasonably warm weather patterns in the Arctic region are directly linked to man-made climate change.

Temperatures throughout November and December were 5C higher than average.

It follows a summer during which Arctic sea ice reached the second-lowest extent ever recorded by satellites.''
Click to expand...

Maybe you should check the weather chart for the rest of Canada and US, the arctic cold front has moved down into the mainland. Probably due to global warming trends, or maybe the magnetic poles shifting....we haven't had one of those in quite awhile.
 
DBT said:
BBC news;

''Temperatures at the North Pole could be up to 20 degrees higher than average this Christmas Eve, in what scientists say is a record-breaking heatwave.

Climate scientists say these unseasonably warm weather patterns in the Arctic region are directly linked to man-made climate change.

Temperatures throughout November and December were 5C higher than average.

It follows a summer during which Arctic sea ice reached the second-lowest extent ever recorded by satellites.''
Click to expand...

An example of a confusing conflation of weather and climate.
 
skepticalbip said:
DBT said:
BBC news;

''Temperatures at the North Pole could be up to 20 degrees higher than average this Christmas Eve, in what scientists say is a record-breaking heatwave.

Climate scientists say these unseasonably warm weather patterns in the Arctic region are directly linked to man-made climate change.

Temperatures throughout November and December were 5C higher than average.

It follows a summer during which Arctic sea ice reached the second-lowest extent ever recorded by satellites.''
Click to expand...

An example of a confusing conflation of weather and climate.
Click to expand...

You are forgetting about arctic amplification which is explicitly from increased CO2 and methane. This is going to be a permanent climatic feature. The temperature gradient is getting weaker so the jet stream is getting wobbly making weather erratic.

So with the massive increase in CO2 the higher latitudes can hold onto heat more than near the equator (compared to long term averages). The equatorial region already has a lot of water in the air blocking heat leaving the earth and the added CO2 will not increase temp so much. Up north the air can't hold as much water so increased CO2 will have a much more marked effect.
 
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