How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

It can all be faked, like Russia’s accusations.

Russia does not accuse anybody yet.
But do you have anything of substance to say?

I'm saying that Ukraine has forged every part of this war. Russia doesn't even have troops within 1000000 miles of Ukraine. They have fooled Canada, US, Germany, and even China to some degree. They are phenomenal liars! In fact, you are probably a Ukrainian spy in double (triple?) agent mode.

 

[barbos]

It can all be faked, like Russia’s accusations.

Russia does not accuse anybody yet.
But do you have anything of substance to say?

I'm saying that Ukraine has forged every part of this war. Russia doesn't even have troops within 1000000 miles of Ukraine. They have fooled Canada, US, Germany, and even China to some degree. They are phenomenal liars! In fact, you are probably a Ukrainian spy in double (triple?) agent mode.

You sound desperate.
Even their piece of shit president Ze started complaining about European diplomats asking for evidence about ukraine not being responsible for that crap.
Privately they simply don't believe that garbage.
Ukrainians are filthy liars, nazis and simply terrorists.
Even German right and left parties are united in their distrust of Ukrainian government. Imagine that! German left and right!

 

[Jayjay]

The Ukrainians have to win.

To win, Ukrainians will have to kill 5 Russians for every Ukranian killed. Russia’s biggest asset is their huge supply of expendable soldiers/citizens/conscripts.
Even at that rate it will take years. Unless they can kick Russia out of Crimea and the East real quick, how can they “win”?

Well, it's a little bit less than this ratio. Common military reports state that it takes about 5 offenders vs every 1 defender to take a well defended area. The Russians don't have this many troops. Yes, they are importing Syrians and Nazi merks (like Wagner). But they will run out of troops eventually. I don't believe that Ukraine will be able to take Crimea. But (and this is a tragedy for Ukraine); Ukrainians win by just surviving. It's going to be a battle of the wills. But here's the difference, the Russians can just go home when they lose their will. The Ukrainians are fighting in their home. They have no choice. Ukrainians win by persevering their state.

On the other hand, the Russians already lost. They attacked in order to split Nato in half and convince the other eastern European countries to turn towards Russia. That's been an absolute failure.

Note that Russia is the "defender" already for a large part of the Eastern and Southern parts of the country, so the 5-to-1 calculus there is against Ukraine. I read somewhere that Russia is also conscripting residents of the "people's republics" to do the upkeep and policing of the occupied territory, which frees actual soldiers to fight the Ukrainian army.

The big fight is due for the next couple of weeks, when Russia tries to push south from Izyum and cut off Ukrainian defenders deeper in Donbas. I have no idea how that will turn out, but I'm not optimistic. Russian troops may be less motivated and some of their equipment broken, but the initial numbers advantage is too great. And Russia has much more long range striking capability. Recently Russia said that they had destroyed S-300 anti-air system in Mykolaiv; if true, that means Ukrainian air defenses are going down. Which means more missiles and planes will hit their targets.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It can all be faked, like Russia’s accusations.

Russia does not accuse anybody yet.
But do you have anything of substance to say?

I'm saying that Ukraine has forged every part of this war. Russia doesn't even have troops within 1000000 miles of Ukraine. They have fooled Canada, US, Germany, and even China to some degree. They are phenomenal liars! In fact, you are probably a Ukrainian spy in double (triple?) agent mode.

You sound desperate.
Even their piece of shit president Ze started complaining about European diplomats asking for evidence about ukraine not being responsible for that crap.
Privately they simply don't believe that garbage.
Ukrainians are filthy liars, nazis and simply terrorists.
Even German right and left parties are united in their distrust of Ukrainian government. Imagine that! German left and right!

{sigh} Jimmy and Jay have a lot more patience that I do! Would you at least agree with me that negotiations with Russia are worthless. Putin is just using negotiations to try to gain some high road back. But at the end of the day, Russians want blood. It's not just Putin. Russians want war. And the west should stop holding out hope that we can convince them otherwise? Do you agree? You have been whinning about sanctions against Russia and aide to Ukraine. But the west sends far more to Russia than to Ukraine. We spend far more for your oil and gas than what we send to Ukraine. We need to quit thinking that peace has a chance with Putin, and go all out against Russia. Cut off all oil and gas imports from Russia. Start pressuring China and India. Maybe cut them off too?

 

[Harry Bosch]

The Ukrainians have to win.

To win, Ukrainians will have to kill 5 Russians for every Ukranian killed. Russia’s biggest asset is their huge supply of expendable soldiers/citizens/conscripts.
Even at that rate it will take years. Unless they can kick Russia out of Crimea and the East real quick, how can they “win”?

Well, it's a little bit less than this ratio. Common military reports state that it takes about 5 offenders vs every 1 defender to take a well defended area. The Russians don't have this many troops. Yes, they are importing Syrians and Nazi merks (like Wagner). But they will run out of troops eventually. I don't believe that Ukraine will be able to take Crimea. But (and this is a tragedy for Ukraine); Ukrainians win by just surviving. It's going to be a battle of the wills. But here's the difference, the Russians can just go home when they lose their will. The Ukrainians are fighting in their home. They have no choice. Ukrainians win by persevering their state.

On the other hand, the Russians already lost. They attacked in order to split Nato in half and convince the other eastern European countries to turn towards Russia. That's been an absolute failure.

Note that Russia is the "defender" already for a large part of the Eastern and Southern parts of the country, so the 5-to-1 calculus there is against Ukraine. I read somewhere that Russia is also conscripting residents of the "people's republics" to do the upkeep and policing of the occupied territory, which frees actual soldiers to fight the Ukrainian army.

The big fight is due for the next couple of weeks, when Russia tries to push south from Izyum and cut off Ukrainian defenders deeper in Donbas. I have no idea how that will turn out, but I'm not optimistic. Russian troops may be less motivated and some of their equipment broken, but the initial numbers advantage is too great. And Russia has much more long range striking capability. Recently Russia said that they had destroyed S-300 anti-air system in Mykolaiv; if true, that means Ukrainian air defenses are going down. Which means more missiles and planes will hit their targets.

Jay: I don't disagree with you. I'm very pessimistic about this war. Russians hold most of the short term cards. We mostly send defensive weapons to Ukraine that have short range. The Russians will just use their long term artillery and aircraft and just pound the Ukranians. And starve them to death. But the west should do everything in our power to bankrupt Russia. And be ready to prop up whatever remains of Ukraine with massive western support and aid. I don't think that Russia will take western Ukraine at least. But the Russians have chosen war. And we need to find a way to stop them at some point.

 

[barbos]

Jimmy and Jay have a lot more patience that I do! Would you at least agree with me that negotiations with Russia are worthless. Putin is just using negotiations to try to gain some high road back.

What do you mean by "with Russia"?

Yes, I agree these so called negotiations were pointless, the same way Minsk 2 was pointless because Ukraine simply refused to obey what they signed.
Latest negotiations are pointless too, because Ze said "We are not signing anything until you leave Ukraine" Imagine that? Fucking asshole, right? That was a time when he got a portion of false optimism.

In my opinion it's too late or too early for negotiations. Russia needs to destroy remaining resistance and then negotiate..... in Kiev and with.... americans, not with these puppets.

But the west sends far more to Russia than to Ukraine. We spend far more for your oil and gas than what we send to Ukraine.

What do you mean by that?
Last time I checked it was "Send us gas/oil and we send you no money, because ..... sanctions" To which Russia said "You're gonna pay in rubles"

 

[barbos]

Recently Russia said that they had destroyed S-300 anti-air system in Mykolaiv; if true, that means Ukrainian air defenses are going down. Which means more missiles and planes will hit their targets.

They've never had viable S-300 level air defense. Their air defense fell apart long time ago.
All their success was against low flying helicopters or low/slow flying jets. That's it. S-300 is simply too easy of a target in their position. S-300 itself needs a short range defense which ukrainians can't mount. All they can do is to run around with stingers and hope to get lucky. In my opinion russians should just stop flying low and use UAVs.

 

[barbos]

I don't think that Russia will take western Ukraine at least. But the Russians have chosen war. And we need to find a way to stop them at some point.

First of all. It's US who have chosen the war for ukrainians.
Second of all, I don't want Western Ukraine either. Get what Russia had before WW2 and deport all nazi where they came from - Western Ukraine and leave it to Poland.
Hungary can get the part the lost too if they want to (they do). The rest becomes Russia.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It can all be faked, like Russia’s accusations.

Russia does not accuse anybody yet.
But do you have anything of substance to say?

I'm saying that Ukraine has forged every part of this war. Russia doesn't even have troops within 1000000 miles of Ukraine. They have fooled Canada, US, Germany, and even China to some degree. They are phenomenal liars! In fact, you are probably a Ukrainian spy in double (triple?) agent mode.

You sound desperate.
Even their piece of shit president Ze started complaining about European diplomats asking for evidence about ukraine not being responsible for that crap.
Privately they simply don't believe that garbage.
Ukrainians are filthy liars, nazis and simply terrorists.
Even German right and left parties are united in their distrust of Ukrainian government. Imagine that! German left and right!

Desperate? You seem to think name calling is a viable argument.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Jimmy and Jay have a lot more patience that I do! Would you at least agree with me that negotiations with Russia are worthless. Putin is just using negotiations to try to gain some high road back.

What do you mean by "with Russia"?

Good catch! My point here is that I think that the west is making a big mistake in assuming that its only Putin that is the problem. And the Russians are just poor fools being manipulated by Putin to embrace imperialism. I think that Russians (not just Putin) want to conquer Ukraine. All of it. And they want more. There is a bloodlust in Russia today and the sooner the west recognizes this the sooner that we can take more dramatic steps to blunt this war.

Yes, I agree these so called negotiations were pointless, the same way Minsk 2 was pointless because Ukraine simply refused to obey what they signed.
Latest negotiations are pointless too, because Ze said "We are not signing anything until you leave Ukraine" Imagine that? Fucking asshole, right? That was a time when he got a portion of false optimism.

In my opinion it's too late or too early for negotiations. Russia needs to destroy remaining resistance and then negotiate..... in Kiev and with.... americans, not with these puppets.

But the west sends far more to Russia than to Ukraine. We spend far more for your oil and gas than what we send to Ukraine.

What do you mean by that?
Last time I checked it was "Send us gas/oil and we send you no money, because ..... sanctions" To which Russia said "You're gonna pay in rubles"

I mean that we need to cut off Russia. If I buy a produce manufactured in Germany, my money is helping Germans economically. They use their economy to improve German lives. Russians export gas/oil in exchange for currency that they use to buy weapons to kill people. Period. Every dollar or ruble that is sent to Russia is used to support this war. We've got to cut it off.

 

[barbos]

It can all be faked, like Russia’s accusations.

Russia does not accuse anybody yet.
But do you have anything of substance to say?

I'm saying that Ukraine has forged every part of this war. Russia doesn't even have troops within 1000000 miles of Ukraine. They have fooled Canada, US, Germany, and even China to some degree. They are phenomenal liars! In fact, you are probably a Ukrainian spy in double (triple?) agent mode.

You sound desperate.
Even their piece of shit president Ze started complaining about European diplomats asking for evidence about ukraine not being responsible for that crap.
Privately they simply don't believe that garbage.
Ukrainians are filthy liars, nazis and simply terrorists.
Even German right and left parties are united in their distrust of Ukrainian government. Imagine that! German left and right!

Desperate? You seem to think name calling is a viable argument.

Are you going to address any problems I (and a lot of western journalists) raised?

 

[Jayjay]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiwiTtuWA6M
Summary of the videos:
Ukrainiann nazis used Tochka-U in Kramatorsk on their own people (not really, cause it's East Ukraine and people are pro-russian). Russia got rid of these outdated missiles in June 2021.

Next video shows Ukrainian government soldier wearing WW2 nazi SS insignia. Specifically SS division called Galizien. Video is from "The Sun"
And BBC I understand admitted that nazis are good and very useful for democracy.
So no reason to be ashamed of nazis.


Next
Analysis of Bucha incident. There is absolutely no doubt Ukrainians are behinnd it.
1. Russians declare leaving and then leave Bucha
2. Ukrainians enter Bucha
3. Ukrainians officials proclaim hunting down people who were cooperating with russians
4. Bucha Mayor (pro-nazi piece of shit) smiles and says everything is good in Bucha and Ukrainian army won.
5. 4 days (!!!) after russians left and ukrainians (Azov batallion, which is according to you own fucking government is a neo-nazi organization) entered, This story about bodies on streets appears in western press.
6. Bodies have hands tied with white bands (white arm-bands are being used by pro-russian civilians)
7. Russia has absolutely nothing to gain by murdering civilians.



You decide.

You think we didn't track the missile from launch to impact?!?! Are you forgetting the airborne radar aircraft over Poland?

That's is well out of range. Poland is about 650 miles from Kramatorsk; the range of AWACS radar is only about 250 miles.

And often even if somebody did catch this on a military satellite or surveillance, it wouldn't necessarily be published to avoid revealing US or NATO intelligence capabilities.

 

[barbos]

I mean that we need to cut off Russia.

You do realize that the only reason why Russia has not done it already by herself is that there are contracts which Russia can't break?
Even ukro-nazis realize that. They let gas flow through their shitty country unimpeded during this war.
Don't you think it's weird?
Russia can break all trade tomorrow and will be happy to see whole world starving.
They just don't want to go to court for that.

 

[barbos]

That's is well out of range. Poland is about 650 miles from Kramatorsk; the range of AWACS radar is only about 250 miles.

US has satellites which watch for all infrared signatures from launches.
They know ukro-nazis launched that missile which killed pro-russians trying to leave Kramatorsk. US government is lying!

 

[Harry Bosch]

I mean that we need to cut off Russia.

You do realize that the only reason why Russia has not done it already by herself is that there are contracts which Russia can't break?
Even ukro-nazis realize that. They let gas flow through their shitty country unimppeded during this war.
Don't you think it's weird?
Russia can break all trade tomorrow and will be happy to see whole world starving.
They just don't want to go to court for that.

Yes, I agree with you that the Russians would be very content to see the rest of the world starving. Does it surprise you that Finland and Sweden are seeing the nature of the Russians and are moving towards the west? They want to join Nato now. Do you blame them?

 

[barbos]

Yes, I agree with you that the Russians would be very content to see the rest of the world starving.

Yep, I will happy too, because you did that, not Russia.

 

[barbos]

Does it surprise you that Finland and Sweden are seeing the nature of the Russians and are moving towards the west?

First of all, they don't. Second, I don't fucking care. Reality is, for all intents and purposes both of them are in NATO already. Ukraine was technically in NATO too, just without benefits

 

[Harry Bosch]

Yes, I agree with you that the Russians would be very content to see the rest of the world starving.

Yep, I will happy too, because you did that, not Russia.

Yes, it will be interesting to see who does better in the future. I'm sorry to tell you though but my money will be bet on the west. Your side has us by the balls now because of the western dependence on oil/gas. But my long-term bet is that the west, with its open liberal governments that focus on economic development, science, openness, cooperation, and ingenuity. I'm confident that we will figure it out.

 

[Elixir]

Wow. Nothing like a wall of Russian crap in the morning.
At least we know what they’re being fed.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

You sound desperate.
Even their piece of shit president Ze started complaining about European diplomats asking for evidence about ukraine not being responsible for that crap.
Privately they simply don't believe that garbage.
Ukrainians are filthy liars, nazis and simply terrorists.
Even German right and left parties are united in their distrust of Ukrainian government. Imagine that! German left and right!

Desperate? You seem to think name calling is a viable argument.

Are you going to address any problems I (and a lot of western journalists) raised?

You have raised a lot of stuff. Much like people that dispel evolution, the 9/11 attacks, and a lot of other stuff you'd typically consider BS via fallacy of authority ("western journalists" in this case). The argument you are making is that Ukrainian nazis are waging war on Ukraine. A lot of it. And the premise is ridiculous.

This is ignoring the accusations or rape and indiscriminate murder of civilians.