How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

What kind, indeed.

Do you think I am stupid?
Do you think I don't understand that when you start ignoring something it really means you actually admit that you lost?

I just read a few pages of your rants repeating the claims about Bucha and Kramatorsk, written well after I had debunked that bullshit. Which you completely ignored. And now you're telling someone else that if they don't address your points, they "lost" the argument?

The mind boggles.

EDIT: Nevermind, I notice now that my posts were after yours. But still...

 

[Elixir]

"Everyone in Ukraine is a nazi and must be eradicated" (Zipr, quoting article)
"seems to be consistent with my own conclusion based on available data I trust." (barbos, the Russian)

Disgusting. Totally disgusting that anyone on this (or any other forum) would advocate for murdering millions of innocent civilians.
But leave it to uncle Vlad to convince a bunch of propaganda-soaked followers to commit atrocities, and others to cheer it on.
It reinforces my feeling, that what Russia intends to to do others is going to have to be done to them, sooner or later. And the most humane way would be sooner.

 

[steve_bank]

I think the west including myself through post Soviet collapse we'd never be faced with a deductive European war again. Who would want that? For me seeing the Berlin Wall being torn down by people gave me a great relief. The threat of nuclear war was always in the background. Boeing hada design facility in Russia. Burgers and pizza. Russia was part of the ISS.

Putin shows why we can never relax on military readiness. China as well.

In the news the RNC withdrew from the commitee that oversees presidential debates citing bias. Putin may have won. Trump has created a deep divide in the country. Were no longer unified any general sense.

 

[Jayjay]

US police probably shouldn't use chemical weapons; But even if they were bound by the same treaties as the military, and were using them illegally, their crimes would not in any way exonerate the crimes of the Russian military.

Actually, tear gas is not really banned by that convention.
And why do we even discuss that?
Why not discuss Ukrainians using cluster bombs on civilian population?
No millitary target were there.

Both sides have used cluster munitions (Russia in its attack on Kramatorsk stations, for example) but neither Ukraine or Russia have signed the treaty to ban cluster munitions so technically they're "legal".

I don't think there's credible evidence for use of chemical weapons in Mariupol, and if there is, it could be tear gas or white phosphorous (which Russia already used earlier in the war elsewhere) instead of unequivocally bad shit like sarin or other nerve agents. And it wasn't used against civilians. The massacres of people with conventional weapons are orders of magnitude worse.

 

[Jayjay]

Maddow had a segment showing a newsreel of the 1939 russian invasion of Finland. How a country of 180 million felt threatened by Finland's 4 million. (see, russia is into recycling, at least recycling their excuses for invasions)

From the wiki on that war:

Hostilities ceased in March 1940 with the signing of the Moscow Peace Treaty in which Finland ceded 9% of its territory to the Soviet Union. Soviet losses were heavy, and the country's international reputation suffered. Their gains exceeded their pre-war demands, and the Soviets received substantial territories along Lake Ladoga and further north. Finland retained its sovereignty and enhanced its international reputation. The poor performance of the Red Army encouraged German Chancellor Adolf Hitler to believe that an attack on the Soviet Union would be successful and confirmed negative Western opinions of the Soviet military.

Maddow's story has some mistakes and omissions.

1) Finland did have an air force, albeit a small one. A little over 100 planes vs. USSR's two thousand.

2) The Winter War did end in 1940 with the terms mentioned, but Maddow skips the part that this only lead to an interim peace. When Germany decided to attack Soviet Union, Göbbels made a speech where he basically lied that Finland was going to join the attack, and while Finland had no such plans, Stalin's paranoia got the best of him and he pre-emptively attacked Finland again. That lead to the "Continuation War" after which Soviet Union got even more land. The basic idea of Maddow's story is true though, in the end Finland did manage to maintain its independence though it did go pretty close to the edge of becoming a Soviet client state after the war.

3) One of the reasons for Stalin's initial failure was that instead of Russian troops used to winter warfare, Stalin sent people from the southern parts of USSR, most notably Ukraine. The Ukrainian soldiers didn't know how to ski or handle the cold weather and were slaughtered. So Stalin managed to screw over Ukrainians even then. And it's interesting that now Putin is sending poor people from Chechnia, Dagestan and eastern parts of Russia to be cannon fodder in Ukraine. Exactly the same strategy as Stalin had in 1939.

I think the end result will also be similar. Ukraine will lose a lot of land and be forced to sign a peace treaty, to preserve at least some resemblance of sovereignty. The difference is that while Finland was allied with Nazi Germany, that was doomed, Ukraine is getting tremendous help from US and Europe.

 

[Jayjay]

Steven Seagal's chances of ever getting work in the US again gets a significant drop.

He even looks like a movie bad guy's chief henchman now.

Or the guy who ate the movie bad guy's henchman.

 

[Jayjay]

If Russia manages to break through the defenses south of Izyum, the war could become very long. if it fails, maybe Putin would be willing to cut some sort of ceasefire or a peace deal at least.

Not singling you out, just using your comment here to illustrate. Where does this attitude originate? What evidence is there to support this hope that Putin will somehow capitulate? Did the allies in WW2 think that Hitler would at some point throw in the towel or sue for peace? Hitler and Putin are madmen focused on personal wealth and power. They are not amenable to compromise, they are drunk on wealth and power. They are crime bosses who have succeeded in doing precisely what they wish and will stop at nothing to obtain more wealth and power, not to mention that they know they have a lot of enemies. They are not going to stop and start acting like rational choirboys.

I was referring to the (unlikely?) possibility that Russian advance is halted. Then Putin might consider that it's better to keep what he already conquered and sell that as a "victory" to his people.

I think that you're wrong. Putin isn't bent on personal wealth anymore. He's got everything he could hope for. What motivates him now is ideology and legacy, and that's far more dangerous. If he cared about his own wealth and power only, he'd never have started the war in the first place, or at least would have withdrawn when the extent of the sanctions became obvious. But he doesn't care about wealth or temporary gains, he wants to rebuild the great Russian empire for all time, no matter the cost. Even Hitler settled for a mere 1000-year Reich.

The only thing that will stop Putin is the same thing that stopped Hitler, force of arms, nothing less, unless one is willing to give away freedom and democracy to appease another madman.

Hitler could be stopped because he didn't have nuclear weapons.

I'm not convinced that Russia can be prevented from carving Ukraine into pieces. But we can ensure that it's going to cost him, and maybe that'll deter Russia from starting any other wars for the next couple of decades.

 

[Jayjay]

Finland may be next. The dictator;s rule of survival, when facing failure go to war.

The islands of Gotland (Sweden) and Åland (Finland) in the Baltic Sea are at risk of being invaded. It's a long shot, but after Ukraine, I think Russia could be capable of anything. Putin could see this as a last opportunity before Sweden and Finland are under NATO umbrella, plus it would create a frozen conflict that could block these countries' NATO application processes.

I don't think it's plausible that Russia would invade Finland by land. There is no Russian-speaking population to "protect", or many valuable resources or strategic ports or anything else that Russia really wants. Also the terrain is much worse for an invader than Ukraine.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Hitler could be stopped because he didn't have nuclear weapons.

If Hitler and the Allies both had nuclear weapons in 1935, tell me how it goes.

 

[steve_bank]

If Germany had not surrendered before Japan the first atomic bomb would have ben dropped on Berlin. If Germnay got the bomb first it woud have been dropped on Moscow followed by London

From what I read Truman consdered using nukes on China for entering the Korean War, but decided against it because it would deplete the stockpile.. Russian deference was more important.

 

[lpetrich]

Russian warship Moskva has sunk - defence ministry - BBC News

"While being towed... towards the destined port, the vessel lost its balance due to damage sustained in the hull as fire broke out after ammunition exploded. Given the choppy seas, the vessel sank," state news agency Tass quoted the Russian defence ministry as saying.

BTW, "Moskva" is the Russian original of Moscow's name.  Russian cruiser Moskva

Ukrainian officials credit their side's Ukraine-built Neptune anti-ship missiles, while Russian ones claim that there was some accident.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If Germany had not surrendered before Japan the first atomic bomb would have ben dropped on Berlin. If Germnay got the bomb first it woud have been dropped on Moscow followed by London

From what I read Truman consdered using nukes on China for entering the Korean War, but decided against it because it would deplete the stockpile.. Russian deference was more important.

Thanks but that's not what I'm asking and doesn't answer anything about Ukraine. I'm asking what would have happened if Hitler and the allies both had nuclear weapons in 1935. What happens? What does Hitler do? Understand? Would the allies have allowed Hitler to simply threaten nuclear weapons and go on about invading and terrorizing? Would the allied fear of nuclear weapon use allowed Hitler to do as he pleased?

 

[lpetrich]

Finland and Sweden pursue unlinked NATO membership

HELSINKI — Finland and Sweden have chosen to pursue separate tracks and speeds to advance their interests in joining NATO.

Finland had indicated it would prefer a solution that would see the two Nordic unaligned states “jump together” into NATO.

However, Sweden has decided to examine a range of security-related options, including deepening Nordic defense cooperation and urging the European Union to develop enhanced defense policies to offer greater military protection to EU member states that border the highly sensitive Baltic Sea and High North regions.

Unlike Sweden, the Finnish government has set the wheels in motion to fast-track its application to join NATO against the backdrop of heightened security tensions in the region elevated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia warns of nuclear weapons in Baltic if Sweden and Finland join Nato | Russia | The Guardian - "Lithuania plays down threat, claiming Russians already have such weapons in Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad"


As Finland and Sweden consider Nato membership, Austria clings to neutrality - New Statesman - "In the 1970s Austria used its neutrality to be a conduit between East and West, but there's little sign of that now."

After describing Sweden's long-time neutrality,

Austrians too are thinking about their neutrality in a Europe forever changed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Austrian neutrality, like Finland’s, is a product of the Cold War. When, in April 1955, a delegation led by the chancellor, Julius Raab, flew to Moscow to negotiate an end to the Allied occupation of Austria, neutrality was the price his government had to pay. On 25 October 1955 the last Allied troops left Austrian soil; a day later the country’s parliament enacted the Declaration of Neutrality, committing Austria to “perpetual neutrality” and preventing the country from joining “military alliances”.

But there is not much support for joining NATO, at least not just yet.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

More now on claims Ukraine has been attacking border areas in Russia.

According to the governor of Russia's Belgorod region, the village of Spodaryushino was shelled by Ukraine, prompting its evacuation along with a neighbouring village.

Writing on Telegram, Vyacheslav Gladkov said no one was injured and no residential buildings were damaged.

The claim comes after Russian officials accused Ukraine of carrying out air strikes on another residential area in the town of Klimovo in the Bryansk region.

More claims of Ukrainian attacks on Russian border

Shell a village, nobody hurt, no residential damage? What are they firing, illumination rounds?

If it happened at all they hit something near the village, not the village itself.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I was told that that corpses moving is a standard practice to prevent boobie traps. But I have not seen the video itself

As for the satellite images. There is evidence of forgery there.
There is an image after russians left and 3 weeks prior to that. They look almost identical, the only difference is resolution. And during this 3 weeks there was rain and warm temperature. They suspect it's the same image but they changed resolution to hide the fact that bodies did not decompose at all.

Change the resolution?!?!

Sorry, but I have on occasion looked at satellite imagery---while what you get from Google "satellite" (it's often aircraft) view is considerably higher resolution than the free satellite stuff the satellite stuff updates on a period of days, the Google stuff updates on a period of years. Google is more useful to see the situation but the satellite views can give you a better picture of seasonal issues.

There are a huge number of images--the satellites do the whole world over and over and over, you can look at past images as well as the current ones. You can't mess with the resolution without making an anomaly that would be apparent to any experienced user. If the images were tampered with we would already have seen a detailed proof.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

... they show images from before the invasion (empty street, of course), March 19th, and another place from March 21st. And in the text they mention that the latter body didn't exist in March 20th so there must have been a lot more material available to the New York Times than was published. Which makes sense; Maxar is a commercial actor that charges for the images. I seem to recall reading somewhere (way back in the MH17 days, so I could be misremembering) that their license agreement doesn't just charge for the access to the database, but also for each published image, so their customers can't just pay an annual fee and dump everything online.

I'm finding the Maxar data available. 30cm to 50cm resolution (the best resolution I'm seeing on the market) depending on the angle to the satellite, 1km^2 for $20.

 

[bilby]

Russian warship Moskva has sunk - defence ministry - BBC News

"While being towed... towards the destined port, the vessel lost its balance due to damage sustained in the hull as fire broke out after ammunition exploded. Given the choppy seas, the vessel sank," state news agency Tass quoted the Russian defence ministry as saying.

BTW, "Moskva" is the Russian original of Moscow's name.  Russian cruiser Moskva

Ukrainian officials credit their side's Ukraine-built Neptune anti-ship missiles, while Russian ones claim that there was some accident.

When they say "ammunition exploded", it's notable that they don't specify whose ammunition.

 

[bilby]

If Germany had not surrendered before Japan the first atomic bomb would have ben dropped on Berlin. If Germnay got the bomb first it woud have been dropped on Moscow followed by London

From what I read Truman consdered using nukes on China for entering the Korean War, but decided against it because it would deplete the stockpile.. Russian deference was more important.

Thanks but that's not what I'm asking and doesn't answer anything about Ukraine. I'm asking what would have happened if Hitler and the allies both had nuclear weapons in 1935. What happens? What does Hitler do? Understand? Would the allies have allowed Hitler to simply threaten nuclear weapons and go on about invading and terrorizing? Would the allied fear of nuclear weapon use allowed Hitler to do as he pleased?

Well, that's pretty much exactly what happened, only with "devastating war in Europe" in the place of "nuclear weapons".

The Great War was fewer than twenty years earlier, and the French and British viewed a repeat of that conflict with perhaps more trepidation than we today feel towards nuclear war, given that few people alive are old enough to remember the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

If those events had happened in 2005, rather than 1945, how much more determined would we be not to see a repeat, even if it meant throwing the Sudetenland Ukraine under the bus?

 

[bilby]

More now on claims Ukraine has been attacking border areas in Russia.

According to the governor of Russia's Belgorod region, the village of Spodaryushino was shelled by Ukraine, prompting its evacuation along with a neighbouring village.

Writing on Telegram, Vyacheslav Gladkov said no one was injured and no residential buildings were damaged.

The claim comes after Russian officials accused Ukraine of carrying out air strikes on another residential area in the town of Klimovo in the Bryansk region.

More claims of Ukrainian attacks on Russian border

Shell a village, nobody hurt, no residential damage? What are they firing, illumination rounds?

If it happened at all they hit something near the village, not the village itself.

Wanna bet that there was a Russian military target near, but not in, the village?

No residents were hurt, or homes damaged. Please don't ask about our supply depot.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine seems to have made a decision that they'll categorically deny all attacks inside Russia, including the helicopter strikes in Belgorod and the destroyed railways near there which were obviously of Ukrainian origin. So we're not going to get a confirmation until after the war.