How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

Surrender of Azovstal Leaves Heroes of Mariupol to Face Putin’s Twisted Justice
"Hundreds of fighters, many severely wounded, bussed into Russian-held territory to await potential prisoner swap."

Hundreds of Ukrainian fighters trapped for more than two months in the vast Azovstal steel works have surrendered to their Russian besiegers after their commanders finally called time on the defence of Mariupol.

A total of 264 soldiers, 53 of them badly wounded, were taken in a convoy of buses to two towns held by Russian-backed rebels in the Donetsk area, Ukrainian officials said Tuesday. It is unclear how many more are left in the steelworks, where as many as 1,000 fighters had been holed up in a network of underground tunnels and caverns in a medieval siege.

The decision to evacuate them, announced overnight by President Volodymyr Zelensky, allows Russia to finally claim victory in the battle for Mariupol ...

 

[steve_bank]

Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

They’re STILL doing that, just not officially.
Can you say “bone saw”?

There used to be video of beheading on the net. People come to watch.

 

[Elixir]

Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

They’re STILL doing that, just not officially.
Can you say “bone saw”?

There used to be video of beheading on the net. People come to watch.

"People" are backward savages.

 

[steve_bank]

Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

They’re STILL doing that, just not officially.
Can you say “bone saw”?

There used to be video of beheading on the net. People come to watch.

"People" are backward savages.

I doubt you and I have a future in politics.

 

[bilby]

Palestinian problem is that they have no proper institutions, no sovereign country, and no leaders worth a damn. The choice is between corrupt PLO and religious terrorists, both with their own agenda that has nothing to do with what's good for the Palestinian people. That of course is fine by Israel, who can use that as an excuse to ultimately push them out of West Bank entirely.

It's probably too late to save Palestinians, but if they were smart, they would look at Zelensky very closely and try to duplicate that.

You have it backwards. They are unable to govern themselves.

There was a civil war between Fatah and Hamas among Palestinians having nothing to do with Israel. Free elections are not possible and depending on which side wins the other does not acquiesce. It is tribal.

Jordan at one point annexed the West Bank leading to a civil war between Palestinins and Lordan.

There is also Iranian funded terrorism.

I once lookd at all the aid that gas gone to the Palestinians. A lot of money from the USA, Europe, and Arabs. It all disappeared with no mterial result. Yasar Arafat who went around in military fatigues died a rich man never holding a job.

Even without Israel the region would be a mess.

Egypt closed its border with Gaza before Isreal closed its borders.

It is politically incorrect to criticize cultures. Culture does natter. Suadi Arabia is living an anachronistic achaic system hostile to wetern freedoms abd values. It is a modern oppressive version of a medieval monarchy. It sucks and you could not pay me to go there.

There I said it, Arab culture sucks. Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

The USA still has the death penalty in many places, so perhaps you should move out of your glass house before you start hurling that particular rock.

There's nothing more civilised or less barbaric about lethal injections than beheadings.

 

[Patooka]

You have it backwards. They are unable to govern themselves.

There was a civil war between Fatah and Hamas among Palestinians having nothing to do with Israel. Free elections are not possible and depending on which side wins the other does not acquiesce. It is tribal.

If you go to Liverpool, face north than real subtle like turn left you'll be facing an island (not spelled that way) of white people who had the exact same arguments thrown at them for a very long time. I'm talking at least 2-3 years of the rest of the world saying, "They fight amongst themselves, they can't govern themselves, they're terrorists funded by other nations, their culture is one of death" etc.

 

[Jayjay]

Palestinian problem is that they have no proper institutions, no sovereign country, and no leaders worth a damn. The choice is between corrupt PLO and religious terrorists, both with their own agenda that has nothing to do with what's good for the Palestinian people. That of course is fine by Israel, who can use that as an excuse to ultimately push them out of West Bank entirely.

It's probably too late to save Palestinians, but if they were smart, they would look at Zelensky very closely and try to duplicate that.

You have it backwards. They are unable to govern themselves.

There was a civil war between Fatah and Hamas among Palestinians having nothing to do with Israel. Free elections are not possible and depending on which side wins the other does not acquiesce. It is tribal.

Israel isn't the only reason for Palestinian failure. But it is one reason. And Israel has no incentive to change that, because it wants the land that Palestinians are living on.

The analogy to Russia-Ukraine conflict is similar in the sense that Russia wants Ukraine to be a failed state, so that they can justify their invasion. It has no interest in actually fixing the problems it alleges Ukraine has (nazis, corruption, oppression of ethnic Russians, whatever) because those are the casus belli for the war and for Russian annexation of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Of course the analogy also fails in many regards. Palestinians have no viable state, Ukraine does. Palestinians are divided like you said, Ukrainians are united. Palestinians are occupied and have been since the beginning, Ukraine is mostly not occupied, and the territories Russia has de facto annexed are from 2022 and 2014, not from half a century ago. It's a poor match and there's no way any sane country would pour weapons to Palestine like they do to Ukraine. But if Palestinians want to look at how to get western people and politicians on their side, they'd do better emulating Zelensky than Arafat.

 

[Jayjay]

Surrender of Azovstal Leaves Heroes of Mariupol to Face Putin’s Twisted Justice
"Hundreds of fighters, many severely wounded, bussed into Russian-held territory to await potential prisoner swap."

Hundreds of Ukrainian fighters trapped for more than two months in the vast Azovstal steel works have surrendered to their Russian besiegers after their commanders finally called time on the defence of Mariupol.

A total of 264 soldiers, 53 of them badly wounded, were taken in a convoy of buses to two towns held by Russian-backed rebels in the Donetsk area, Ukrainian officials said Tuesday. It is unclear how many more are left in the steelworks, where as many as 1,000 fighters had been holed up in a network of underground tunnels and caverns in a medieval siege.

The decision to evacuate them, announced overnight by President Volodymyr Zelensky, allows Russia to finally claim victory in the battle for Mariupol ...

Russian negotiator and member of Duma is calling for the death penalty to the captured fighters:

Russian lawmaker wants Ukraine’s Azovstal fighters to get death penalty

Ukrainian soldiers, some severely wounded, surrendered Monday after military chiefs asked them to save their lives.

theprint.in

I think these guys are not going to be used for a prisoner swap. At least some of them will be put to mock "war crimes trials" and executed. Russia has been building up Azov fighters for being the nastiest of nasty nazis that caused the whole war, so they can't just treat them like regular soldiers. At best, Russia will try to milk bigger concessions from Ukraine for their freedom. Maybe the release of Putin's pal Viktor Medvechuck?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I think these guys are not going to be used for a prisoner swap. At least some of them will be put to mock "war crimes trials" and executed. Russia has been building up Azov fighters for being the nastiest of nasty nazis that caused the whole war, so they can't just treat them like regular soldiers. At best, Russia will try to milk bigger concessions from Ukraine for their freedom. Maybe the release of Putin's pal Viktor Medvechuck?

That would be Putin fucking up again, making Ukraine even more of a problem going forward.

 

[Jayjay]

I think these guys are not going to be used for a prisoner swap. At least some of them will be put to mock "war crimes trials" and executed. Russia has been building up Azov fighters for being the nastiest of nasty nazis that caused the whole war, so they can't just treat them like regular soldiers. At best, Russia will try to milk bigger concessions from Ukraine for their freedom. Maybe the release of Putin's pal Viktor Medvechuck?

That would be Putin fucking up again, making Ukraine even more of a problem going forward.

If the invasion, occupation, massacres, destruction of infrastructure, bombing of cities, denial of Ukraine as a real country, and all the other shit Russia has been up to for the past two months hasn't already done the trick, making the Azov fighters martyrs will hardly make a difference.

I don't see how Russia could possible let them go, at least not until the end of the war. Anyone from Mariupol who is released will be hailed as a national hero in Ukraine and abroad, and most certainly would be used in propaganda against Russia when they tell horrid tales of their treatment during captivity. It's ironic that the attempt at "denazification" of Ukraine has made a nazi-founded militia more popular than ever.

 

[Elixir]

I have no idea how "the west" should respond, because I can't understand what - if anything - Russia figures to gain by this.
My suspicion is that there is little interest in conquering and occupying Ukraine, and the whole charade is a distractive display of nationalism, by which Putin perhaps hopes to elevate his own domestic standing, which has reportedly been suffering of late.

Projecting again? No one in Russia considers it a great idea.

Putin does not need to invade anyone. All he needs is to start North Stream 2 and wait until all contracts with Ukrainian pipelines expire.
Ukraine and US, on the other hand, realize that they need some drastic shit to prevent that.

Above is from the early days of the thread prior to the invasion. Interesting, particularly the last sentence. So ironic how Putler himself provided the blundering, abusive invasion that put the quietus on NS2 and a whole lot more. And little wonder that the poster has gone dark.

 

[lpetrich]

NATO talks with Finland, Sweden falter but will continue | AP News

NATO envoys failed to reach a consensus Wednesday on whether to start membership talks with Finland and Sweden, diplomats said, as Turkey renewed its objections to the two Nordic countries joining.

The envoys met at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels after Finland and Sweden’s ambassadors submitted written applications to join the military organization, in a move that marks one of the biggest geopolitical ramifications of Russia’s war on Ukraine — and which could rewrite Europe’s security map.

 

[steve_bank]

All things considered as it is Turkey shoud not be part of NATO.

 

[Jayjay]

All things considered as it is Turkey shoud not be part of NATO.

It was admitted at a time when it was run by the military that kept religious nutters out of power. I can see how it made sense back then, given the Soviet threat and Turkey's strategic position.

But now, Erdogan has dismantled the old guard and has appointed himself into a perpetual dictator, much like Putin in Russia. But Erdogan isn't half as smart as Putin. The Turkish economy is in the crapper, and it's involved in perpetual ethnic war against he Kurds inside and outside of its borders. And now, Turkish approval is needed to accede Sweden and Finland to NATO... so of course Erdogan will throw a wrench into the process and try to milk concessions not just from the candidate members, but from the US.

 

[steve_bank]

All things considered as it is Turkey shoud not be part of NATO.

It was admitted at a time when it was run by the military that kept religious nutters out of power. I can see how it made sense back then, given the Soviet threat and Turkey's strategic position.

But now, Erdogan has dismantled the old guard and has appointed himself into a perpetual dictator, much like Putin in Russia. But Erdogan isn't half as smart as Putin. The Turkish economy is in the crapper, and it's involved in perpetual ethnic war against he Kurds inside and outside of its borders. And now, Turkish approval is needed to accede Sweden and Finland to NATO... so of course Erdogan will throw a wrench into the process and try to milk concessions not just from the candidate members, but from the US.

I think he has been buying Russian weapons.

 

[Jayjay]

All things considered as it is Turkey shoud not be part of NATO.

It was admitted at a time when it was run by the military that kept religious nutters out of power. I can see how it made sense back then, given the Soviet threat and Turkey's strategic position.

But now, Erdogan has dismantled the old guard and has appointed himself into a perpetual dictator, much like Putin in Russia. But Erdogan isn't half as smart as Putin. The Turkish economy is in the crapper, and it's involved in perpetual ethnic war against he Kurds inside and outside of its borders. And now, Turkish approval is needed to accede Sweden and Finland to NATO... so of course Erdogan will throw a wrench into the process and try to milk concessions not just from the candidate members, but from the US.

I think he has been buying Russian weapons.

Turkey bought S-400 missile system from Russia a while back, and that put it on US sanction list. Personally I think that US should just be more flexible and let Turkey keep it. But a more likely scenario is that the US will ease some of the sanctions, maybe let Turkey back into the F-35 program or promise to sell it Patriot systems in exchange for Turkey either selling the S-400 or not activating it. I don't really get what the problem is for a NATO country to have some Russian-made hardware... maybe Eastern European NATO members still do.

Ironically, the US sanctions are what drove Turkey to develop its own Bayraktar drones which Ukraine has been able to use very successfully against Russia.

 

[Copernicus]

It would be foolish to try to kick Turkey out of NATO, since it controls the Bosporus and has the second largest military force in NATO. It is too bad that Erdogan is an authoritarian who has managed to dismantle much of what secular democratic system that the country once had, but the last thing that region of the world needs is an alliance between Turkey and Russia. Erdogan uses that fact to get away with his shenanigans. Orban in Hungary plays a similar game.

 

[Elixir]

It would be foolish to try to kick Turkey out of NATO, since it controls the Bosporus and has the second largest military force in NATO. It is too bad that Erdogan is an authoritarian who has managed to dismantle much of what secular democratic system that the country once had, but the last thing that region of the world needs is an alliance between Turkey and Russia. Erdogan uses that fact to get away with his shenanigans. Orban in Hungary plays a similar game.

I'm not sure that putting Hungary and Turkey on the same side as Russia is such a terrible idea. One thing we should have learned from Ukraine is that the size of an army does not directly translate into an effective deployable force. I suspect that there would be significant rifts between those three powers, and that their ability to act in full concert would depend entirely upon their complete submission to the Russian Pig. Would Orman and Erdogan allow themselves to be seen as totally subservient to Putler?

 

[Copernicus]

It would be foolish to try to kick Turkey out of NATO, since it controls the Bosporus and has the second largest military force in NATO. It is too bad that Erdogan is an authoritarian who has managed to dismantle much of what secular democratic system that the country once had, but the last thing that region of the world needs is an alliance between Turkey and Russia. Erdogan uses that fact to get away with his shenanigans. Orban in Hungary plays a similar game.

I'm not sure that putting Hungary and Turkey on the same side as Russia is such a terrible idea. One thing we should have learned from Ukraine is that the size of an army does not directly translate into an effective deployable force. I suspect that there would be significant rifts between those three powers, and that their ability to act in full concert would depend entirely upon their complete submission to the Russian Pig. Would Orman and Erdogan allow themselves to be seen as totally subservient to Putler?

I think that both men are opportunists and will go with whichever side they think is in their long term interests. They will play one side off against the other in order to achieve their own ends. From Erdogan's perspective, his war with the PKK is important to his image within Turkey, so he is using his leverage with NATO and the West to help him. Buying that missile system from Russia was part of his strategy, and that is just a small sample of the mischief he can get into.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It would be foolish to try to kick Turkey out of NATO, since it controls the Bosporus and has the second largest military force in NATO. It is too bad that Erdogan is an authoritarian who has managed to dismantle much of what secular democratic system that the country once had, but the last thing that region of the world needs is an alliance between Turkey and Russia. Erdogan uses that fact to get away with his shenanigans. Orban in Hungary plays a similar game.

I'm not sure that putting Hungary and Turkey on the same side as Russia is such a terrible idea. One thing we should have learned from Ukraine is that the size of an army does not directly translate into an effective deployable force. I suspect that there would be significant rifts between those three powers, and that their ability to act in full concert would depend entirely upon their complete submission to the Russian Pig. Would Orman and Erdogan allow themselves to be seen as totally subservient to Putler?

Subservient like Lukashenko? Kicking them out can only worsen the relationship. Better to at least keep them corralled.