Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[steve_bank]

I disagre partly on the end of the Cold War. Yes the system was fundamentally snafu.

I was not a big Reagan fan, but hr gets credit for his aggressive anti communist position and his speech at the Berlin Wall. His Star Wars Strategic Defense Initiative program did cause Russia to try and keep up and it it had a financial impact on Russia.

It was not just Reagan, Truman, Eisenhower, and JFK. All precedents kept up the pressure.

What we may be seeing now is the real end of Cold War. Patton ajjegedly argued that we shoud make peace with Germany and turn on the Russians because they were the future threat.

If not the single cause SDI was the straw that broke the camel's back.

I worked on a proposal for an SDI project called brilliant Pebbles. We looked at it and we all saw it was not practical, but ten SDI was never reallfeasible. There was an anti ballistic missile test where a transponder was put on the target for to ensure the anti missile missilef hit the traget.

Analysts showed that it such accuracy was not really possible, hitting a bullet with a bullet at long range. This and some other reports on tests convinced mat some public results weer part of a disinformation program against the Russians.

 

[Jayjay]

50 years from now people will be wondering, why didn't the US ally with Russia against China back when they still had the chance.

But for us living in this time, it's not like we have much of a choice. Give us a break, future generations!

 

[Copernicus]

50 years from now people will be wondering, why didn't the US ally with Russia against China back when they still had the chance.

But for us living in this time, it's not like we have much of a choice. Give us a break, future generations!

There are people now who wonder that, and that seemed very much what Donald Trump might have been thinking with his "Excuse Russia/Blame China" antics during his disastrous four years in power. If anything can be said for Vladimir Putin, it is that he was a hell of a lot smarter than Donald Trump, but that was a very low bar to jump over. Putin, of course, had other plans for the future role of Russia in world politics.

 

[steve_bank]

What would the time frame have been for such an alliance?

We were in China before WWII helping the Chinese fight the Japanese. Post war we supported the fascist Chang Kai Shek who lost the civil war and fled to Taiwan.

Russia pre revolution, WWI and WWII was engaged in centuries of wars with Europeans.

An example of shifting alliances. A Russian American alliance? Even in existential WWII the Russians and Americans were not allies. Doed American pilots and planes that fell into Russian hands were not necessarily handed back to the Americans.

Chiang Kai-shek - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Chiang Kai-shek (31 October 1887 – 5 April 1975),[2] also known as Chiang Chung-cheng, Chiang Chieh-shih, Cheung Kai-shek and Jiang Jieshi, was a Chinese Nationalist politician, revolutionary, and military leader, who served as the leader of the Republic of China from 1928, until 1949 in mainland China, and then in Taiwan until his death in 1975.

Born in Chekiang (Zhejiang) Province, Chiang was a member of the Kuomintang (KMT), and a lieutenant of Sun Yat-sen in the revolution to overthrow the Beiyang government and reunify China. With help from the Soviets and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chiang organized the military for Sun's Canton Nationalist Government and headed the Whampoa Military Academy. Commander-in-chief of the National Revolutionary Army (from which he came to be known as a Generalissimo), he led the Northern Expedition from 1926 to 1928, before defeating a coalition of warlords and nominally reunifying China under a new Nationalist government. Midway through the Northern Expedition, the KMT–CCP alliance broke down and Chiang massacred communists inside the party, triggering a civil war with the CCP (Chinese Communist Party), which he eventually lost in 1949

 

[SLD]

So apparently a group of Russian Officers have been so appalled at the competence in the Russian military that they are calling for full scale total war against Ukraine to restore their status as a world power and re-establish the former borders of Russia. They say denazification should be abandoned. They were shocked at the destruction of an entire BTG in the Donetsk river crossing attempt a few days ago. They are calling for at least a partial mobilizatio, extending conscripts to two years, formation of defense groups near all NATO countries and the death penalty for deserters.

I think they’re getting desperate.

Meanwhile, I hear Ukrainians refer to Russian soldiers as Orcs. I like that.

 

[Jayjay]

Retired general says Ukraine will need 8-9 months before it's forces are fully operational:

Former NATO general says Putin has 9-month window to win war

Russia gains ground as it focuses its military offensive and Moscow’s vast resources of men and material exact a toll.

www.aljazeera.com

Armies cannot turn on a dime​

Ukraine has fought valiantly and driven the Russians back from the northern cities of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv in recent weeks, but its counteroffensive has not been sustained because Ukrainian forces need time to assimilate Western military equipment, a retired NATO commander said.

“Tanks and armoured vehicles need an initial stage of personal training and team training for the driver, gunner, reloader and commander,” said Lt-Gen Konstantinos Loukopoulos, who has taught tank warfare at military academies in Kyiv and Moscow.

“They need tactical training, including test firing and exercises, which cannot be done in a few weeks. The training cycle is at least six months, and that doesn’t change in wartime,” he said.

“After [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s illusions about winning the war in 96 hours, the illusions began on the Western side,” he added.

The United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany and the Czech Republic are among those who have pledged various types of armour and artillery, and that complicates matters, Loukopoulos said.

For instance, out of 90 howitzer M777 artillery pieces sent by the US to Ukraine, about 18 have been absorbed, he said, adding that it is unknown how many of the 12 or 14 César self-propelled howitzers sent by France are in use.

“For Ukraine to absorb the weapons from the West and make them operational, form the right units, and train them, it needs eight, nine months. It can’t pull active units from the front to train them,” Loukopoulos said.

That is the timeframe, he believes, within which Putin must win the war on the ground and reach a negotiated settlement.

“Under the present balance of forces, the general trend is in favour of the Russians. Right now nothing can change that,” he said.

“After a few months, with training of reserve units, there could be a [Ukrainian] strategic counteroffensive that could throw the Russians out.”

Loukopoulos believes this could likely be done by Ukraine seizing Russian territory that it could exchange for its own territory in negotiations.

“Can the Ukrainians create a fact on the ground to counter Russian gains? Right now they cannot,” he said.

“Whether we like it or not, Russia has the political and military initiative. The West is reacting to what Putin is doing.”

Given that Russia has conquered 20% of Ukrainian territory in three months, how much is going to be left after another nine? I'm not as optimistic as Loukopoulos, because each passing day when Russia has the advantage, it is grinding away Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure, which will make it harder for Ukraine to eventually turn around.

The question is, which side will crumble first: Russia, that is basically being run as a war-time economy right now and can produce new cannons and cannon fodder reliably, without having to worry about public opinion polls, or Ukraine, who's already stretched at the limit when it comes to its own resources and relies on foreign aid from countries to whom this war isn't an existential crisis, but just a hobby?

 

[Elixir]

The question is, which side will crumble first

If it was Russia vs Ukraine, given equal resources I’d bet on Ukraine. But it’s Russia vs the EU and NATO. These agglomerations of nations lack the collective resolve of either Russia or Ukraine. One 18 year old American punk can totally push the plight of 45 million Ukranians right off the front page.

 

[ZiprHead]

Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says

The classified report, produced for President Biden, saw a turnaround from the previous assessment of the Russian leader's health.

www.newsweek.com

Vladimir Putin's health is a subject of intense conversation inside the Biden administration after the intelligence community produced its fourth comprehensive assessment at the end of May. The classified U.S. report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer, three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports tell Newsweek.

The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.

The high-ranking officials, who represent three separate intelligence agencies, are concerned that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his hold on power, a status that makes for a rocky and unpredictable course in Ukraine. But it is one, they say, that also makes the prospects of nuclear war less likely.

"Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute," says one of the senior intelligence officers with direct access to the reports. "The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense during his rule, everyone sensing that the end is near."

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?

 

[ZiprHead]

From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?

I'm wondering if Biden saying not to use those long range missiles on Russia was just for Putin. If Ukraine happens to throw a couple over the border every so often, will Biden look the other way?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Don't know. But Pootie can fuck with it and find out.

 

[Elixir]

Don't know. But Pootie can fuck with it and find out.

He’ll say it happened whether it did or not.

 

[ZiprHead]

Don't know. But Pootie can fuck with it and find out.

He’ll say it happened whether it did or not.

This is true.

 

[steve_bank]

Dictators always seem to end up believing their own myths. Hitler certainly. He thought he new more than anybody else and was unbeatable. Russia. North Africa. Italy.

Napoleon at one point like Hitler was giving military orders impossible to execute, and of course Russia and Waterloo.

 

[SLD]

Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says

The classified report, produced for President Biden, saw a turnaround from the previous assessment of the Russian leader's health.

www.newsweek.com

Vladimir Putin's health is a subject of intense conversation inside the Biden administration after the intelligence community produced its fourth comprehensive assessment at the end of May. The classified U.S. report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer, three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports tell Newsweek.

The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.

The high-ranking officials, who represent three separate intelligence agencies, are concerned that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his hold on power, a status that makes for a rocky and unpredictable course in Ukraine. But it is one, they say, that also makes the prospects of nuclear war less likely.

"Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute," says one of the senior intelligence officers with direct access to the reports. "The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense during his rule, everyone sensing that the end is near."

Maybe. But I also fear it’s wishful thinking.

Putin is only 69 years old. Which isn’t that old. I don’t think he smokes (Xi does!). But still it would be great if he had some kind of collapse if not death. He’s got to be under enormous strain due to the failure of the invasion.

 

[ZiprHead]

Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says

The classified report, produced for President Biden, saw a turnaround from the previous assessment of the Russian leader's health.

www.newsweek.com

Vladimir Putin's health is a subject of intense conversation inside the Biden administration after the intelligence community produced its fourth comprehensive assessment at the end of May. The classified U.S. report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer, three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports tell Newsweek.

The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.

The high-ranking officials, who represent three separate intelligence agencies, are concerned that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his hold on power, a status that makes for a rocky and unpredictable course in Ukraine. But it is one, they say, that also makes the prospects of nuclear war less likely.

"Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute," says one of the senior intelligence officers with direct access to the reports. "The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense during his rule, everyone sensing that the end is near."

Maybe. But I also fear it’s wishful thinking.

Putin is only 69 years old. Which isn’t that old. I don’t think he smokes (Xi does!). But still it would be great if he had some kind of collapse if not death. He’s got to be under enormous strain due to the failure of the invasion.

I believe the report above is the first official acknowledgement of his illness.

And cancer has no age limits.

 

[Jayjay]

I'm very suspicious of rumors of Putin's illness. The war is looking so bleak that we're grasping at straws and want him to just drop dead. Everyone is hoping that it would end the war, or at least that the guy responsible should get his just desserts. We're psychologically primed to believe news of this sort, no matter how flimsy the actual evidence.

Even if he were sick, he could live for years. And the entire Russian establishment shares his imperialist, nationalist views.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I'm very suspicious of rumors of Putin's illness. The war is looking so bleak that we're grasping at straws and want him to just drop dead. Everyone is hoping that it would end the war, or at least that the guy responsible should get his just desserts. We're psychologically primed to believe news of this sort, no matter how flimsy the actual evidence.

Even if he were sick, he could live for years. And the entire Russian establishment shares his imperialist, nationalist views.

I just think it would be nice if he died. The world could do no worse. We could throw around a little propaganda ourselves that he died of shame.

On custards, cookies, or petits fours.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?

I'm wondering if Biden saying not to use those long range missiles on Russia was just for Putin. If Ukraine happens to throw a couple over the border every so often, will Biden look the other way?

I think it's about not using them for deep strike stuff--don't go after logistics targets far from the border.

 

[Jayjay]

It seems that Russia has managed to deploy anti-air missile systems on Snake Island, which would negate to some extent the loss of Moskva:

Is this final? Or is there some way Ukraine could still attack snake Island? To me this seems that landing troops South of Odesa is back in play.