Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[Ford]

From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?

Well there's the rub. Russia doesn't "win" if they leave Ukraine a smoking crater.

This is a war over resources after all. Oil, natural gas, and the infrastructure to deliver those commodities to market. It's not a coincidence that Putin wants the eastern part of Ukraine, and it's not because a lot of ethnic Russians live there. It's about what's underneath their feet.

He almost had it all. A pro-Russian government in Kyiv, some pipelines running to the rest of Europe, and a chance to corner the market (holy shit look at all this natural gas!) Then all that went south...or more accurately...west. He had to step in and set up a government that wasn't looking to the west rather than Moscow, and he figured it would be an easy lift. Whoops. Now he's in a bind. He can't turn Ukraine into a smoking crater. He can't take the whole thing because he's mightily pissed off the Ukrainian people, and he might be able to hold on to gains in the east, but a European market that's turning away from whatever product he's able to extract from that region might not be as profitable as he thought.

 

[Harry Bosch]

From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?

Well there's the rub. Russia doesn't "win" if they leave Ukraine a smoking crater.

This is a war over resources after all. Oil, natural gas, and the infrastructure to deliver those commodities to market. It's not a coincidence that Putin wants the eastern part of Ukraine, and it's not because a lot of ethnic Russians live there. It's about what's underneath their feet.

He almost had it all. A pro-Russian government in Kyiv, some pipelines running to the rest of Europe, and a chance to corner the market (holy shit look at all this natural gas!) Then all that went south...or more accurately...west. He had to step in and set up a government that wasn't looking to the west rather than Moscow, and he figured it would be an easy lift. Whoops. Now he's in a bind. He can't turn Ukraine into a smoking crater. He can't take the whole thing because he's mightily pissed off the Ukrainian people, and he might be able to hold on to gains in the east, but a European market that's turning away from whatever product he's able to extract from that region might not be as profitable as he thought.

You are absolutely correct. This has always been about resources. There are some of the massive supplies of natural gas in the black sea and Eastern Ukraine. The west was starting to set up drilling with Ukraine just before 2014 when Russia invaded. Russian invasion of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine secured these deposits for Russia. It's really about selling gas to Europe.

 

[Jayjay]

From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?

Well there's the rub. Russia doesn't "win" if they leave Ukraine a smoking crater.

This is a war over resources after all. Oil, natural gas, and the infrastructure to deliver those commodities to market. It's not a coincidence that Putin wants the eastern part of Ukraine, and it's not because a lot of ethnic Russians live there. It's about what's underneath their feet.

I think you're wrong. Russia has already plenty of natural resources. And it's bombing all the industrial infrastructure to bits.

For Russia, it's a perfectly acceptable outcome if Ukraine becomes a smoking crater. It's more about denying these resources to Ukraine, than getting them for itself. What Russia wants is control of the coastline, and land connection to Transnistria and Moldova.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It seems that Russia has managed to deploy anti-air missile systems on Snake Island, which would negate to some extent the loss of Moskva:

Is this final? Or is there some way Ukraine could still attack snake Island? To me this seems that landing troops South of Odesa is back in play.

I don't really think this is about the island as such, but rather the SAM coverage. Not that they have demonstrated any ability to intercept antiship missiles.

 

[ZiprHead]

When Putin sent his troops into Ukraine, a 'secret plan' to undermine him was quietly put into action

A vast network of former Belarusian officials, activists, private hackers and ordinary citizens has reached deep into Russia's war with the aim of helping Ukrainians defeat their invaders.

www.abc.net.au

While Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been standing by Vladimir Putin, thousands of his people have been planning acts of sabotage and their own revolution.

A vast network of former Belarusian officials, activists, private hackers and ordinary citizens has reached deep into Russia's war with the aim of helping Ukrainians defeat their invaders.

The Belarusians' fight is a personal one.

They believe if Russia fails in Ukraine, the people of Belarus will be closer to freedom at home.

This network had been slowly gaining momentum and members while formulating "a secret plan" for a coordinated uprising against Lukashenko's regime when Putin's forces arrived in Belarus in January.

Leaders within the anti-regime network told the ABC the decision was made to start sabotage operations early to hamper Putin's efforts in Ukraine, help defend Kyiv and ultimately weaken Russia.

They believe a Russia on its knees makes overthrowing Lukashenko — "the last dictator of Europe" — possible.

 

[steve_bank]

I read books on the Pacific island campaigns and the Battle Of Stalingrad.

The Pacific war was brutal. Gasoline and explolsves used to clear fanatical Japnese soldiers out of caves.

Stalingrad was the most brutal battle in the war, IMO. Fighting was room to room in a building. Utterly dehumanizing. In the book were pictures of German soldiers frozen in the mud being driven over.

I am seeing Ukraine as similar. It is a fight to the death.

 

[Jayjay]

When Putin sent his troops into Ukraine, a 'secret plan' to undermine him was quietly put into action

A vast network of former Belarusian officials, activists, private hackers and ordinary citizens has reached deep into Russia's war with the aim of helping Ukrainians defeat their invaders.

www.abc.net.au

While Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been standing by Vladimir Putin, thousands of his people have been planning acts of sabotage and their own revolution.

A vast network of former Belarusian officials, activists, private hackers and ordinary citizens has reached deep into Russia's war with the aim of helping Ukrainians defeat their invaders.

The Belarusians' fight is a personal one.

They believe if Russia fails in Ukraine, the people of Belarus will be closer to freedom at home.

This network had been slowly gaining momentum and members while formulating "a secret plan" for a coordinated uprising against Lukashenko's regime when Putin's forces arrived in Belarus in January.

Leaders within the anti-regime network told the ABC the decision was made to start sabotage operations early to hamper Putin's efforts in Ukraine, help defend Kyiv and ultimately weaken Russia.

They believe a Russia on its knees makes overthrowing Lukashenko — "the last dictator of Europe" — possible.

Rule 1 of secret plans: don't tell anyone about them, least of all the media.

 

[Ford]

From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?

Well there's the rub. Russia doesn't "win" if they leave Ukraine a smoking crater.

This is a war over resources after all. Oil, natural gas, and the infrastructure to deliver those commodities to market. It's not a coincidence that Putin wants the eastern part of Ukraine, and it's not because a lot of ethnic Russians live there. It's about what's underneath their feet.

I think you're wrong. Russia has already plenty of natural resources. And it's bombing all the industrial infrastructure to bits.

For Russia, it's a perfectly acceptable outcome if Ukraine becomes a smoking crater. It's more about denying these resources to Ukraine, than getting them for itself. What Russia wants is control of the coastline, and land connection to Transnistria and Moldova.

This assumes that Putin looked at Russia's large supply of natural resources and said "you know what? We've got enough. No need to seek out any more. We're satisfied."

No, this was a brazen attempt to quickly overthrow the pro-western government in Ukraine, install a Kremlin puppet regime, and exploit not just the gas and oil reserves, but maintain control over the pipelines and shipping so Russia can enrich themselves and "restore" their country to the "glory" Putin remembers from his days with the Soviet Union. He wanted Ukraine to be like Belarus...compliant.

But he had to do it in days, not months. He didn't anticipate the resistance put up by the Ukrainians, and he certainly didn't mean to make a hero out of Zelenskyy. In fact if he had his way, there would still be a pro-Russian president in Kyiv. That was his original plan, it was working (he had a friendly President), but then went all haywire. Revolutions tend to throw a wrench into carefully laid plans.

 

[TV and credit cards]

When Putin sent his troops into Ukraine, a 'secret plan' to undermine him was quietly put into action

A vast network of former Belarusian officials, activists, private hackers and ordinary citizens has reached deep into Russia's war with the aim of helping Ukrainians defeat their invaders.

www.abc.net.au

I like this from the article:

Alla Leukavets is a Belarusian scholar with expertise in the country's domestic and foreign policies, in particular Belarus's relationships with Europe and Russia.

She said Belarusian opposition and anti-regime groups were gaining momentum.

"Never before in the history of Belarus could we see such a great level of organisation and such impactful work. During all the previous elections, Belarusian opposition fought with each other, there was no unity among them," she said.

It would be wise for Democrats in the US to recognize this. For those would would stomp their feet and stay home during an election because their favorite fringe candidate was unsuccessful.

Good article though. It adds color to the horrendous spectacle of the Russian assault on Kyiv.
The opposition in Belarus looks to be strong, organized, and effective. I do hope they get their moment. I can’t help but think it hinges on the US’s level of participation. Not just militarily but covertly. Of how timid or not the current administration is willing to be.

 

[TV and credit cards]

From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?

Well there's the rub. Russia doesn't "win" if they leave Ukraine a smoking crater.

This is a war over resources after all. Oil, natural gas, and the infrastructure to deliver those commodities to market. It's not a coincidence that Putin wants the eastern part of Ukraine, and it's not because a lot of ethnic Russians live there. It's about what's underneath their feet.

I think you're wrong. Russia has already plenty of natural resources. And it's bombing all the industrial infrastructure to bits.

For Russia, it's a perfectly acceptable outcome if Ukraine becomes a smoking crater. It's more about denying these resources to Ukraine, than getting them for itself. What Russia wants is control of the coastline, and land connection to Transnistria and Moldova.

Yes. First and foremost it is/was about restoring some semblance of an Eastern Bloc. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the expectation that Russia take a backseat on the world stage has always been the main motivator. The economic resources of Ukraine would have just been fuel to further support this expansion.

 

[Jayjay]

From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?

Well there's the rub. Russia doesn't "win" if they leave Ukraine a smoking crater.

This is a war over resources after all. Oil, natural gas, and the infrastructure to deliver those commodities to market. It's not a coincidence that Putin wants the eastern part of Ukraine, and it's not because a lot of ethnic Russians live there. It's about what's underneath their feet.

I think you're wrong. Russia has already plenty of natural resources. And it's bombing all the industrial infrastructure to bits.

For Russia, it's a perfectly acceptable outcome if Ukraine becomes a smoking crater. It's more about denying these resources to Ukraine, than getting them for itself. What Russia wants is control of the coastline, and land connection to Transnistria and Moldova.

This assumes that Putin looked at Russia's large supply of natural resources and said "you know what? We've got enough. No need to seek out any more. We're satisfied."

No, this was a brazen attempt to quickly overthrow the pro-western government in Ukraine, install a Kremlin puppet regime, and exploit not just the gas and oil reserves, but maintain control over the pipelines and shipping so Russia can enrich themselves and "restore" their country to the "glory" Putin remembers from his days with the Soviet Union. He wanted Ukraine to be like Belarus...compliant.

Well, that was my point more or less. It's not about resources (though they may be nice to have), but compliance and control. And as far as resources and infrastructure go, the key is not to let them fall in Ukrainian hands, not that Russia has plans to exploit them.

I don't think Russia will be in any hurry to try to access Eastern Ukraine's natural gas resources. It would be a risky endeavour, when they have no idea when the war is going to flame up again, and there is a very high risk of sabotage from Ukrainian partisans. That's slightly less of an issue in the Black Sea, but Russia is going to be strapped for money to invest in new gas fields. And fossil fuels are going out of vogue anyway. Same goes for rebuilding the infrastructure. The local stooges in Mariupol already said that the Azovstal steel factory is not going to be rebuilt, but the city will be turned into a "tourist attraction". The industrial infrastructure that Russian bombed to the ground is going to stay there.

 

[Copernicus]

I don't think Russia will be in any hurry to try to access Eastern Ukraine's natural gas resources. It would be a risky endeavour, when they have no idea when the war is going to flame up again, and there is a very high risk of sabotage from Ukrainian partisans. That's slightly less of an issue in the Black Sea, but Russia is going to be strapped for money to invest in new gas fields. And fossil fuels are going out of vogue anyway. Same goes for rebuilding the infrastructure. The local stooges in Mariupol already said that the Azovstal steel factory is not going to be rebuilt, but the city will be turned into a "tourist attraction". The industrial infrastructure that Russian bombed to the ground is going to stay there.

I think that the overall strategy is to corner and control the market for oil and gas. To that end, they have joined with OPEC to coordinate strategy so as not to undercut each other. Taking possible competition out of the market helps to accomplish the same goal, even if they don't exploit those resources themselves in the immediate future. I think that Putin would like to stabilize his Ukrainian acquisitions and find ways to defuse future retaliation for his actions. He knows that he isn't going to conquer all of Ukraine now, but he would seek to keep them in a state of weakness and instability for possible future gains. Like the tsars of the past, he sees Russia as the rightful ruler of "all the Russias", i.e. Orthodox territories to the west of Moscow. So he doesn't need to conquer them all at once, just dominate the region. Europe wants his oil and gas, so he'll try to find a way to make them restrain Ukraine's desire for revenge. France, Italy, and Germany have already shown signs of moving in that direction.

 

[ZiprHead]

Global arms industry getting shakeup by war in Ukraine – and China and US look like winners from Russia’s stumbles

Russia’s war in Ukraine is upending the global arms industry.

As the U.S. and its allies pour significant sums of money into arming Ukraine and Russia bleeds tanks and personnel, countries across the world are rethinking defense budgets, materiel needs and military relationships. Countries that historically have had low levels of defense spending such as Japan and Germany are bulking up, while nations that purchase most of their weapons from Russia are questioning their reliability and future delivery.

My research in this area suggests that, however this war eventually ends, the repercussions for the global defense industry, and for the countries whose companies dominate this sector, will be enormous. Here are four takeaways.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Global arms industry getting shakeup by war in Ukraine – and China and US look like winners from Russia’s stumbles

Russia’s war in Ukraine is upending the global arms industry.

As the U.S. and its allies pour significant sums of money into arming Ukraine and Russia bleeds tanks and personnel, countries across the world are rethinking defense budgets, materiel needs and military relationships. Countries that historically have had low levels of defense spending such as Japan and Germany are bulking up, while nations that purchase most of their weapons from Russia are questioning their reliability and future delivery.

My research in this area suggests that, however this war eventually ends, the repercussions for the global defense industry, and for the countries whose companies dominate this sector, will be enormous. Here are four takeaways.

Russia has really messed itself up.

 

[Jayjay]

Turkey could be one of the winners in terms of weapons industry. It's Bayraktar drones are already selling like hotcakes, and it might be able to remove or mitigate the arms sales sanctions from other NATO partners in exchange for letting Sweden and Finland into the club.

 

[ZiprHead]

Thought this was pretty cool.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[SLD]

This war has turned into a massive artillery duel. Unfortunately on that front, the Russians have the advantage. Ukraine is reporting massive artillery shortages and significantly less guns. We need to give them as much artillery as possible and as fast as possible.

 

[Elixir]

Russia has really messed itself up.

Just a technical detail, but Putler has really messed Russia up. Judging from barbie’s obliviousness, Russians don’t even know it yet.

 

[Copernicus]

Russia has really messed itself up.

Just a technical detail, but Putler has really messed Russia up. Judging from barbie’s obliviousness, Russians don’t even know it yet.

I doubt that barbos is as oblivious as he appears to be here. [removed] and he doesn't really expect to convince the handful of people who interact with him here. The Russian population at large is probably more confused than convinced. There are certainly a lot of people who believe the official line, because it is safer to do so, if for no other reason. Younger people will be more skeptical than older people, because the rest of their lives will be affected more drastically as a result of this disastrous war. We aren't going to get an accurate picture of what public opinion is really like in Russia, because it is no longer possible to get accurate surveys of public opinion. Such surveys were difficult to get in the past, but the new punitive laws make them impossible now.