Mar-a-Largo raided by FBI?

[TV and credit cards]

Per the Washington Post, Material on foreign nation's nuclear capabilities seized at Trump's Mar-a-Lago. And Trump claims that it is okay that he had it at his home office because he declassified it. Jesus H. Fucking Christ.

ETA: Summarized here not behind a paywall.

Some of the documents are so restricted that even some of the Biden administration's senior-most national security officials were not authorized to review them, the Post said.

Link (gifted)

This is stuff the US doesn't want others knowing we have. My guess, NK or Israel. If Israel, he better watch his back.

It was in this last batch of government secrets, the people familiar with the matter said, that the information about a foreign government’s nuclear-defense readiness was found. These people did not identify the foreign government in question, say where at Mar-a-Lago the document was found or offer additional details about one of the Justice Department’s most sensitive national security investigations.

This is extraordinarily frightening. I can't even imagine how he was able to remove this material from secure locations without pushback from those charged with guarding it. I have acquaintances in the Secret Service and friends/family in military positions where they handle this type of documentation, and after speaking with one of them about this they are terrified that it has been shared with people who should under no circumstances have access to it.

And yes, if it is Israel he may not have much time to play coverup. They are hard core about security breaches, and to be completely honest I would not blame them at all for taking action.

Ruth

I wonder what special procedures there might be for POTUS access to classified documents. Normally there would be check out procedures, restrictions on where certain documents can be taken, people screaming to the high heavens when a document is not returned in a timely manner, checking something out is suppose to stay in that individual’s possession, never passed to another. And a person leaving their job for another normally has to checkout with the people charged with maintaining classified material. Also, when you leave a position with a security clearance, your clearance is revoked and is then reinstated at your new job only if necessary. I would think Trump retaining any clearance after leaving office would be up to Biden and receive a resounding hells no.
What the procedures are at the White House for access is a mystery to me. But anything missing upon the Biden administration taking over must have been assumed to be compromised and action taken to mitigate any potential harm to the extent possible.

 

[Jayjay]

And yes, if it is Israel he may not have much time to play coverup. They are hard core about security breaches, and to be completely honest I would not blame them at all for taking action.

Unless he stole it for Israel. I'm sure Mossad would like to know what the US knows about their nuclear program. On the other hand they're such a close ally to US that they might already have that info.

 

[lpetrich]

Let's see which nations have nuclear bombs.

•  List of states with nuclear weapons
• Countries with Nuclear Weapons 2022
• Nuclear Weapons Worldwide | Union of Concerned Scientists
• Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance | Arms Control Association
• Nuclear Arsenals - ICAN

There are 9 nations that are known or suspected to have nuclear bombs: the US (5,428), Russia (5,977), the UK (225), France (290), China (350), India (160), Pakistan (165), North Korea (20?), Israel (90?)

Leaving out of the US makes 8. Of these, the UK and France are friendly nations with uncontroversial nuclear arsenals, and the US is not much involved with India vs. Pakistan. That leaves Russia, China, NK, and Israel. I find it hard to go much further than that, however.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And yes, if it is Israel he may not have much time to play coverup. They are hard core about security breaches, and to be completely honest I would not blame them at all for taking action.

Unless he stole it for Israel. I'm sure Mossad would like to know what the US knows about their nuclear program. On the other hand they're such a close ally to US that they might already have that info.

The idiot leaked deep Israeli intel by accident to Russia regarding an agent buried in ISIS. I doubt they would trust him to accomplish any level of competent espionage.

 

[starwater]

Barr has a major critique of Judges Ruling

the opinion was wrong in his view and should be appealed. He said on Fox!

WAPO reports that some of the docs were about the US capabilities of nuclear weapons! - WTF!

I hope we see more from the DOJ in the coming days. I know they are proceeding with caution, but I wish they would hurry up!

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I wonder what special procedures there might be for POTUS access to classified documents. Normally there would be check out procedures, restrictions on where certain documents can be taken, people screaming to the high heavens when a document is not returned in a timely manner, checking something out is suppose to stay in that individual’s possession, never passed to another. And a person leaving their job for another normally has to checkout with the people charged with maintaining classified material. Also, when you leave a position with a security clearance, your clearance is revoked and is then reinstated at your new job only if necessary. I would think Trump retaining any clearance after leaving office would be up to Biden and receive a resounding hells no.
What the procedures are at the White House for access is a mystery to me. But anything missing upon the Biden administration taking over must have been assumed to be compromised and action taken to mitigate any potential harm to the extent possible.

Right. That's the deal. How do such controlled, sensitive materials end up at the private club of a former president? It's like some weapons and ammunition from our armory just ended up missing and no one ever noticed. That doesn't happen. It's just bizarre to say the least.

On the other hand there are procedures for returning ammunition without having to account for anything because it's such a paperwork nightmare. But that doesn't happen with firearms and I would assume it sure as hell doesn't happen with classified material.

There's something very odd going on. If it's gross incompetence someone needs to hang.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Let's see which nations have nuclear bombs.

•  List of states with nuclear weapons
• Countries with Nuclear Weapons 2022
• Nuclear Weapons Worldwide | Union of Concerned Scientists
• Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance | Arms Control Association
• Nuclear Arsenals - ICAN

There are 9 nations that are known or suspected to have nuclear bombs: the US (5,428), Russia (5,977), the UK (225), France (290), China (350), India (160), Pakistan (165), North Korea (20?), Israel (90?)

Leaving out of the US makes 8. Of these, the UK and France are friendly nations with uncontroversial nuclear arsenals, and the US is not much involved with India vs. Pakistan. That leaves Russia, China, NK, and Israel. I find it hard to go much further than that, however.

I think what would be of more interest is the nations trying to develop nukes.

The only country on that list that I think would be all that interested in what we know is North Korea.

 

[bilby]

Let's see which nations have nuclear bombs.

•  List of states with nuclear weapons
• Countries with Nuclear Weapons 2022
• Nuclear Weapons Worldwide | Union of Concerned Scientists
• Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance | Arms Control Association
• Nuclear Arsenals - ICAN

There are 9 nations that are known or suspected to have nuclear bombs: the US (5,428), Russia (5,977), the UK (225), France (290), China (350), India (160), Pakistan (165), North Korea (20?), Israel (90?)

Leaving out of the US makes 8. Of these, the UK and France are friendly nations with uncontroversial nuclear arsenals, and the US is not much involved with India vs. Pakistan. That leaves Russia, China, NK, and Israel. I find it hard to go much further than that, however.

I think what would be of more interest is the nations trying to develop nukes.

The only country on that list that I think would be all that interested in what we know is North Korea.

All of those countries would be very interested in what the US knows, because knowing what you know is a very good starting point for finding out how you came to know it, that is, for identifying US spies in their institutions.

Even closely allied nations, like the UK, are very keen to identify and eliminate leaks in their security. And if you think the US doesn't spy on the UK, and vice-versa, you are very naïve. That NOFORN classification isn't targeted at obvious enemies; It's a warning about not sharing information with allies, too.

In some ways, inappropriate or unauthorised sharing with allies is a bigger issue, because people are in the habit of sharing other classified materials with allies as part of routine operations, so it's a real risk that NOFORN material could be included in error.

 

[lpetrich]

 Jonathan Pollard - a US intelligence analyst who was found guilty of spying for Israel.

 Mordechai Vanunu - Israeli nuclear technician who revealed details of Israel's nuclear-weapons program

 Vela incident - "an unidentified double flash of light detected by an American Vela Hotel satellite on 22 September 1979 near the South African territory of Prince Edward Islands in the Indian Ocean, roughly midway between Africa and Antarctica."

Likely a nuclear-bomb test, and likely carried out by South Africa and Israel together.  South Africa and weapons of mass destruction - South Africa built six nuclear bombs in the 1980's, and in 1989, dismantled them and a seventh bomb that was under construction.

 

[LoAmmo]

First off, there exists no scenario for Country X's nuclear secrets being compromised to Country Y, no matter which two countries from the nuclear club you plug into it, that isn't terrible. Trump is the only son of a bitch in America who could get away with doing this--and while he hasn't heard the last of this, I'll believe he's in jail for it when he's in jail for it.

But compromised Secrets involving friendly/Allied nations actually represent the worst-case scenario here, not Secrets involving emerging/potential nuclear powers such as NK or Iran.

Two quick reasons for that are

1) the very real possibility that a UK or a France would be less forthcoming about sharing their nuclear plans/capabilities/operations with the U.S. in future, should we prove to be careless, untrustworthy stewards of them. (As Trump has already done, regardless of what else happens.) This has every chance to turn a relatively transparent relationship with the UK and France more opaque, and leave us, potentially, with blind spots going forward, from allies we need to be able to count on. You can bet your ASS that Biden has quietly gotten assurances to our allies that nuclear secrets--ours and theirs--are safely back in the hands of grownups now that Trump is gone.

2) Compromised UK or French nuclear secrets to a common adversarial state, say Russia or China, would, to a degree, also compromise the nuclear capabilities of THE OTHER TWO partners--ie, compromised UK nuclear secrets also provide insight into French AND U.S. nuclear capabilities, and compromised French secrets provide insight into UK and U.S. capabilities. (This is because the overall nuclear posture of these three Western powers is pretty tightly integrated.)

Obviously it would also be catastrophic if classified assessments of Russian posture were blown, to Russia--both for revealing what we got right, and, importantly, what we got wrong.

India's secrets being compromised to Pakistan, or vice-versa, obviously would carry a significant risk of an actual war breaking out, so let's hope it's neither of those.

BEST-case scenario for the foreign Mar-a-Lago nuclear classified being left unsecured (in a known haven for spies) is that it concerned North Korean assessments.

 

[Ruth Harris]

@LoAmmo : Do you by chance follow Beau of The Fifth Column? Your take is very similar to his. He has been covering all of this since it started, and has been on the mark for much of the time. He covers many different things in his videos, and I have learned a lot from them.

Ruth

 

[LoAmmo]

@LoAmmo : Do you by chance follow Beau of The Fifth Column? Your take is very similar to his. He has been covering all of this since it started, and has been on the mark for much of the time. He covers many different things in his videos, and I have learned a lot from them.

Ruth

No, Ruth, but I googled him and saw his YouTube channel (and got a lesson in "judging books by their covers"--As soon as I saw and heard him I thought he was a Trumper...and he turns out to apparently be anything but.) Watched a few of his videos and liked his general delivery; he seems very rational and measured.

My comments on nuclear-related matters come from prior personal experience as an Air Force nuclear weapons officer. I served in a variety of nuclear-capable bomber units and Headquarters-level assignments and had supervisory oversight of nuclear weapons stockpiles, their safety and security, maintenance procedures, technical design features, and operational usage procedures.

as such, I held a Top Secret security clearance and some of the "additional" little acronyms that come after it that the media has been commenting on recently: like SCI, "Sensitive Compartmented Information" and NOFORN, which is not releasable to non-U.S. individuals. And some they haven't been mentioning, like CNWDI, which stands for "Critical Nuclear Weapons Design Information."

As you might guess, I am absolutely shocked and horrified by the unimaginably negligent, unlawful, and dangerous disregard a former Commander-In-displayed for the safeguarding of some of our nation's most highly classified secrets. Taking nuclear security dead seriously is the only standard I ever knew--it's how I took it, and it's how everyone I ever served with took it.

And then there's Trump.

 

[starwater]

@LoAmmo : Do you by chance follow Beau of The Fifth Column? Your take is very similar to his. He has been covering all of this since it started, and has been on the mark for much of the time. He covers many different things in his videos, and I have learned a lot from them.

Ruth

No, Ruth, but I googled him and saw his YouTube channel (and got a lesson in "judging books by their covers"--As soon as I saw and heard him I thought he was a Trumper...and he turns out to apparently be anything but.) Watched a few of his videos and liked his general delivery; he seems very rational and measured.

My comments on nuclear-related matters come from prior personal experience as an Air Force nuclear weapons officer. I served in a variety of nuclear-capable bomber units and Headquarters-level assignments and had supervisory oversight of nuclear weapons stockpiles, their safety and security, maintenance procedures, technical design features, and operational usage procedures.

as such, I held a Top Secret security clearance and some of the "additional" little acronyms that come after it that the media has been commenting on recently: like SCI, "Sensitive Compartmented Information" and NOFORN, which is not releasable to non-U.S. individuals. And some they haven't been mentioning, like CNWDI, which stands for "Critical Nuclear Weapons Design Information."

As you might guess, I am absolutely shocked and horrified by the unimaginably negligent, unlawful, and dangerous disregard a former Commander-In-displayed for the safeguarding of some of our nation's most highly classified secrets. Taking nuclear security dead seriously is the only standard I ever knew--it's how I took it, and it's how everyone I ever served with took it.

And then there's Trump.

Thank you so much for your insight. I worked as an environmental consultant many years ago at Rocky Flats where they made the plutonium triggers for the bombs. I never had clearance, but several of my coworkers did. I had to be escorted pretty much everywhere - even just to look at field full of prairie dogs.

 

[LoAmmo]

Ah, the prairie dogs! Yes! I remember those, out there--that was the first time I'd ever seen actual prairie dogs, was out there.
We even had them closer in--my wife and I lived in an apartment in Aurora, CO, while I attended initial munitions/nuclear weapons training at then-Lowry AFB in Denver, which you no doubt remember, and there were prairie dogs in the field across from the theater we'd go to, in Aurora.

Lowry was always (before it closed) kind of the epicenter of Air Force nuclear weapons training, and I had occasion to return there off and on for various training and certifications.

 

[lpetrich]

... as such, I held a Top Secret security clearance and some of the "additional" little acronyms that come after it that the media has been commenting on recently: like SCI, "Sensitive Compartmented Information" and NOFORN, which is not releasable to non-U.S. individuals. And some they haven't been mentioning, like CNWDI, which stands for "Critical Nuclear Weapons Design Information."

Is "need to know" the overall principle for deciding who gets to read which documents? I'm guessing that it likely is.

Interesting that Trump didn't try to get a hold of CNWDI -- only the likes of SCI and NOFORN, which may be details of US military forces and details of espionage on other nations. Not a good idea to reveal where one's ballistic-missile submarines are, and not a good idea to reveal anything that may indicate how one is spying.

As an example of such concerns, consider spy satellites.

The National Reconnaissance Office at 50 Years: a Brief History

In retrospect, it seems remarkable that even as the United States was achieving its goal of putting a man on the moon, there was an equally ambitious and technologically challenging American space program proceeding along a parallel path—but in strictest secrecy. Indeed, it was not until 1978 that a President acknowledged the basic fact that the United States carried out reconnaissance from space, and not until 1992 that the government acknowledged the NRO’s existence.

The first successful US spy satellite was launched 28 years earlier.

On 25 August 1960, President Eisenhower greeted several of his top science advisors in the Oval Office with Director of Central Intelligence, Allen Dulles, just before the President was scheduled to attend a meeting of the National Security Council. One of the scientists, Polaroid Corporation’s CEO Edwin H. “Din” Land, unrolled a spool of film across the floor.

Land said, “Here are your pictures, Mr. President.” The film was from Corona 14, the first successful satellite photoreconnaissance mission, which had flown the week before. Corona 14 had captured images of airfields and other military installations in the Soviet Union. President Eisenhower had approved the project two and half years before. (McDonald, 2002, p. 34)

 CORONA (satellite) - the first spy satellites used film cameras and returned the exposed film in capsules.

 KH-11 KENNEN - first launched in 1976, the first US spy satellites to use digital cameras, or at least acknowledged to do so - "The capabilities of the KH-11 are highly classified, as are images they produce."

 

[lpetrich]

As to CNWDI, I'm sure that a lot of nations would like to get their hands on that. Not just for building nuclear bombs, but also for maintaining them, and for getting an idea of what the US is capable of.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

... as such, I held a Top Secret security clearance and some of the "additional" little acronyms that come after it that the media has been commenting on recently: like SCI, "Sensitive Compartmented Information" and NOFORN, which is not releasable to non-U.S. individuals. And some they haven't been mentioning, like CNWDI, which stands for "Critical Nuclear Weapons Design Information."

Is "need to know" the overall principle for deciding who gets to read which documents? I'm guessing that it likely is.

Interesting that Trump didn't try to get a hold of CNWDI -- only the likes of SCI and NOFORN, which may be details of US military forces and details of espionage on other nations. Not a good idea to reveal where one's ballistic-missile submarines are, and not a good idea to reveal anything that may indicate how one is spying.

It sounded like he did have something like CNWDI. That secret document likely has a very small number of Americans even authorized to see it! And that'd be because it isn't even our own... but indicates the extent to the knowledge we had the capacity to obtain from our allies or enemies.

The asset or resources part is likely more valuable than the actual intel. And our former President had it in an insecure location, where if our FBI was looking for the documents, every fucking Intel agency was getting people cleared to work as janitor staff at Mar-o-Lago.

 

[starwater]

Ah, the prairie dogs! Yes! I remember those, out there--that was the first time I'd ever seen actual prairie dogs, was out there.
We even had them closer in--my wife and I lived in an apartment in Aurora, CO, while I attended initial munitions/nuclear weapons training at then-Lowry AFB in Denver, which you no doubt remember, and there were prairie dogs in the field across from the theater we'd go to, in Aurora.

Lowry was always (before it closed) kind of the epicenter of Air Force nuclear weapons training, and I had occasion to return there off and on for various training and certifications.

Lowry now - leaching dioxane everywhere. Work on that one too.

Now back to your regularly schedule original topic of this thread.

 

[Artemus]

DOJ is going to appeal the order for a "Special Master". This should be interesting.

 

[TomC]

DOJ is going to appeal the order for a "Special Master". This should be interesting.

Perhaps the DOJ could suggest a triumvirate, heavy on the Republicans.
Mike Pence and Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney would do just fine.
Tom