How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

 List of states with limited recognition

Quite a lot, including pairs of rivals South Korea - North Korea, Israel - Palestine, China - Taiwan, and Cyprus - Northern Cyprus. Also Armenia (mostly recognized), Kosovo (widely recognized), the Sahrawi Republic (some recognition), and Somaliland (none).

Now the ex-Soviet breakaway states.

• Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) - an ethnic-Armenian enclave (exclave?) in Azerbaijan that Armenia and Azerbaijan have been fighting over since the late 1980's - Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria.
• Transnistria - a narrow strip in Moldova east of the Dniester River - Artsakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.
• Abkhazia and South Ossetia - in Eurasian Georgia - each other, Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru, Artsakh, Transnistria, DPR, and LPR. South Ossetia is additionally recognized by the Sahrawi Republic.
• DPR and LPR - in eastern Ukraine - each other, Russia, Syria, North Korea, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.

DPR and LPR: Donetsk and Luhansk (Lugansk) People's Republics

 

[Gun Nut]

Hey, Barbos, how do you feel about your shit hole country and its Nazi hoodlum in the Kremlin having its ass handed to them by the brave Ukrainians?

Oh, wait, I know … according to you, the Russians simply ”withdrew” from the lands they occupied and left Ukraine to “punch air” and take casualties.

Barbie is taking Ukrainian language lessons, I have it on good authority.
I'm also laughing my ass off at how weak and ineffective the Russian military is... It's like the wizard of Oz where everyone is afraid of THE WIZZARD (whoo-oo-oo-oo-Ahh-ah-ah-ha).. and then he shows himself to be this little puny midget guy with a loud microphone.
Soon, Little itty-bitty-pooty will be squashed under a Ukrainian child's little toe.
Barbie doll must be so embarrassed on the inside... but like a true Russian, nothing but cheap façade on the outside.

 

[Jayjay]

This is weird.
Russians do not recognise passports they issued in temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts Ukrainian intelligence

Russian passports: Good enough to be conscripted in LNR/DNR army and to be sent to be killed in the front lines. But not good for anything else.

 

[lpetrich]

Putin Threatens to Escalate War as India Distances Itself From Russia - The New York Times
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi:

“I know that today’s era is not of war,” Mr. Modi told Mr. Putin at the beginning of their meeting, describing global challenges like the food and energy crises that were hitting developing countries especially hard. “Today we will get a chance to discuss how we can move forward on the path of peace.”

UN votes to allow Ukraine's Zelenskyy to give virtual speech | AP News

The U.N. General Assembly voted Friday to allow Ukraine’s president to deliver a pre-recorded address to next week’s gathering of world leaders because of his need to deal with Russia’s invasion, making an exception to its requirement that all leaders speak in person.

The 193-member world body approved Volodymyr Zelenskky’s virtual address by a vote of 101-7 with 19 abstentions including China. The seven countries voting “no” were Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia and Syria.

Belarus proposed an amendment that would have made that more general, but it was defeated 23-67 with 27 abstentions.

This virtual-address proposal had over 50 cosponsors, and it stated that it was not to be a precedent for future high-level meetings.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russia is Burning all Sorts of Bridges

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president, made headlines in early August when he published a lengthy statement that labeled Kazakhstan as an “artificial state” and warned Nur-Sultan of a Ukraine-like scenario. Unfortunately, rather than constructive and bridge-building, comments like these continue to create a divide between Russia and its allies.

Medvedev’s statement was made via his Vkontakte account to his 2.2 million followers, in which he accused Kazakhstan of carrying out a “genocide” against ethnic Russians who live in northern Kazakhstan via resettlement policies. Moreover, he warned that Russia would protect ethnic Russians and alluded to the current war in Ukraine. However, the statement was deleted days later, and Medvedev’s team issued another statement explaining that the account was hacked.

...
This is not the first time a former member of the Soviet Union has been threatened since the war in Ukraine started. In early September, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, threatened Moldova if Russian military personnel, including the so-called peacekeepers stationed in Transnistria, were attacked. Azerbaijan also received a similar threat from a Russian policymaker in March.

Russia's Medvedev Deletes Posts Targeting 'Artificial' Kazakhstan, Georgia

The post said that "after the liberation of Kyiv and all the territories of Little Russia from gangs of nationalists... Russia will become united again."

"Little Russia" (Malorossiya) is Ukraine.

It also said that before 1801, Georgia as a country didn't exist, and that it was part of the Russian empire and that "North and South Ossetia, Abkhazia and the remaining territories of Georgia can only be united as part of a single state with Russia."

Kazakhstan is an "artificial state" that was mainly Slavic before the collapse of the Soviet Union, that resettling "can be classified as the genocide of Russians," like Russia's justification of invading Ukraine. "We have no intention of closing our eyes. There will be no order until the Russians go there."

"No one should have any doubts that the fatal mistake that took place in the early 1990s will be corrected," referring to the breakup of the Soviet Union. "All the peoples who once lived in the great and powerful Soviet Union will live together again in friendship and mutual understanding." and "Russia will again become united, powerful and invincible as it was one thousand years ago." and "We will go on the next campaign to restore the borders of our Motherland, which, as you know, are never ending."

Seems like what Vladimir Putin wrote about Ukraine, that it is not a real country but a separated part of Russia.

What a bunch of assholes. Those places will be next in line for NATO membership if they keep that up.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russias plans for November "referendum" in Kharkiv region revealed: 75% were supposed to vote to join Russia

UKRAINSKA PRAVDA - MONDAY, 19 SEPTEMBER 2022, 16:29 Russia planned to hold a so-called "referendum" in the Kharkiv region from 1 to 7 November in which 75% were supposed to "vote" for joining the Russian Federation.

news.yahoo.com

While this is talking about plans for a faked referendum in the future think about what it means about the referendum in 2014. Is there any reason to think it was any more honest?

 

[steve_bank]

Short of nuclear weapons Putin's threats are empty.

Listend to an interview with a NATO leader. They are prepared for a quick response to any action against a NATO member. Borders are being constantly patrolled in the air.

Like Trump the only thing he can do is repeat the lies and make threats.

 

[Jarhyn]

Russias plans for November "referendum" in Kharkiv region revealed: 75% were supposed to vote to join Russia

UKRAINSKA PRAVDA - MONDAY, 19 SEPTEMBER 2022, 16:29 Russia planned to hold a so-called "referendum" in the Kharkiv region from 1 to 7 November in which 75% were supposed to "vote" for joining the Russian Federation.

news.yahoo.com

While this is talking about plans for a faked referendum in the future think about what it means about the referendum in 2014. Is there any reason to think it was any more honest?

Is there any indication at all that this is not how all Russian elections happen(ed)?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

When you hear Pewtin speaking optimistically about the present situation in Eastern Ukraine one has to wonder how much he really knows. It seems to me that he really believes these tales of how the Ruskis are fighting gloriously. It leaves me wondering. The problem is obviously that he surrounds himself with yes men and punishes messengers of bad news, even if it is accurate news. It's a problem he has created but is he that stupid? Lately it really has me wondering. Is there anyone left in Russia like Zhukov, someone who would tell Stalin the truth and wasn't afraid? I just don't think there is.

 

[Tigers!]

Ukraine should be split between Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania.

Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot approve of such idiocy.

I don't know who they are. But that's what everyone in Eastern Europe thinks.
And I actually have first hand experience with this problem
I served in Soviet Army with people from Ukraine. Their Romanians happened to speak russian. But hungarians were a different story. They claimed they spoke russian, but nobody was able to understand them.
Ukraine should go to pre WW1 borders/status.

This might explain a lot of strange behaviour.

 

[Copernicus]

Ukraine should be split between Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania.

Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot approve of such idiocy.

I don't know who they are. But that's what everyone in Eastern Europe thinks.
And I actually have first hand experience with this problem
I served in Soviet Army with people from Ukraine. Their Romanians happened to speak russian. But hungarians were a different story. They claimed they spoke russian, but nobody was able to understand them.
Ukraine should go to pre WW1 borders/status.

This might explain a lot of strange behaviour.

It also dates his years of service to more than 30 years ago. Times have changed much since the Soviet Army existed.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[lpetrich]

I notice that barbos has yet to specify which nation should get which parts of Ukraine. Which parts Russia should get, Poland should get, Hungary should get, Romania should get, etc.


I do concede that there is a sort of division in Ukraine, between the pro-Russian and the nationalist parts. The eastern and southern parts are the pro-Russian parts, while the central, northern, and western parts are the nationalist parts. While the pro-Russian parts might be a good fit for Russia, the nationalist parts would not be a good fit for any other nation.

Although the nationalist parts extend over the farthest extent of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, I don't think that the nationalist Ukrainians want to merge with Poland.

 

[Copernicus]

I notice that barbos has yet to specify which nation should get which parts of Ukraine. Which parts Russia should get, Poland should get, Hungary should get, Romania should get, etc.


I do concede that there is a sort of division in Ukraine, between the pro-Russian and the nationalist parts. The eastern and southern parts are the pro-Russian parts, while the central, northern, and western parts are the nationalist parts. While the pro-Russian parts might be a good fit for Russia, the nationalist parts would not be a good fit for any other nation.

Although the nationalist parts extend over the farthest extent of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, I don't think that the nationalist Ukrainians want to merge with Poland.

You should probably be careful about designating parts of Ukraine as "pro-Russian", since that expresses a political preference rather than ethnicity. Since the invasion, a lot of attitudes have changed, especially in the occupied territories of the east, where Russian is the dominant language. A lot of Ukrainians are like Zelensky in that they are Russian-dominant speakers, but they can be extremely pro-Ukrainian. Especially older Ukrainians and those living in the east and near the Black Sea tend to have a history of being more sympathetic to ties with Russia. However, the occupation has been so brutal that all bets are off on that score. For example, Mariupol, a totally Russian-speaking city, has been devastated and depopulated by the occupiers. Kharkiv is another area that has historically been somewhat more Russia-sympathetic, but the returning Ukrainian forces are being treated with an overwhelming sense of relief. I doubt that Russia is going to win any real popularity contests even in Crimea anymore.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russias plans for November "referendum" in Kharkiv region revealed: 75% were supposed to vote to join Russia

UKRAINSKA PRAVDA - MONDAY, 19 SEPTEMBER 2022, 16:29 Russia planned to hold a so-called "referendum" in the Kharkiv region from 1 to 7 November in which 75% were supposed to "vote" for joining the Russian Federation.

news.yahoo.com

While this is talking about plans for a faked referendum in the future think about what it means about the referendum in 2014. Is there any reason to think it was any more honest?

Is there any indication at all that this is not how all Russian elections happen(ed)?

Of course it's how things happen, it's just they got caught doing it this time.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia seems to go ahead with annexation via fake "referendums":

Russia holds annexation votes; Ukraine says residents coerced

The referendums are aimed at annexing four occupied regions of Ukraine, drawing condemnation from Kyiv and Western nations which dismissed the votes as a sham and pledged not to recognize the results.

www.reuters.com

Dmitry Medvedev, a former president who is currently deputy chairman of the Security Council, suggested before the announcements that the outcome of such votes would be irreversible and give Moscow - which has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world - carte blanche to defend what it would regard as legally its own territory.

"Encroachment onto Russian territory is a crime which allows you to use all the forces of self–defence," Medvedev said in a post on Telegram. "This is why these referendums are so feared in Kyiv and the West."

No future Russian leader would be able to constitutionally reverse their outcome, he added.

Vyacheslav Volodin, the head of Russia's State Duma, the lower house of parliament, said that his chamber would support the two regions joining Russia if they voted to do so.

This is pretty much what I predicted over a month ago in August (although the date was pushed back due to poor progress in the battlefield):

Russia is planning to have a fake referendum to annex to territories in Russia on September 11th. After that, it will argue that attacks on occupied territories are attacks against Russia. The purpose of the circus is to make a domestic justification for using nukes or mobilization. Even if no other country recognizes the annexation, it will raise the bar considerably. And even if there wasn't a referendum, the purges and forced Russification of the occupied territories are effective. Already Ukrainian currency is forbidden, schools are forced to teach children only in Russian and according to Russian curriculum, and police forces are replaced by people brought from Russia.

So Ukraine has about 6 weeks to start making some gains. Even if the momentum may be shifting slowly, that's a difficult task.

 

[steve_bank]

As I understand it there was an ethnic Russian Ukrainian divide all along. Ethnic Russians who saw themselves as Russian and spoke Russian. I remember something about their wanting to use Russian in schools.

The Russian and Ukrainian religious split may be part of it.

The question is how many ohem want to be part of Russia.

Russians in Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russians are the largest ethnic minority in Ukraine. This community forms the largest single Russian community outside of Russia in the world. In the 2001 Ukrainian census, 8,334,100 identified as ethnic Russians (17.3% of the population of Ukraine); this is the combined figure for persons originating from outside of Ukraine and the Ukrainian-born population declaring Russian ethnicity.[1]

Ethnic Russians live throughout Ukraine. They comprise a notable fraction of the overall population in the east and south, a significant minority in the center, and larger minority in the west.[1]

The west and the center of the country feature a higher percentage of Russians in cities and industrial centers and much smaller percentage in the overwhelmingly Ukrainophone rural areas.[1] Due to the concentration of the Russians in the cities, as well as for historic reasons, most of the largest cities in the center and the south-east of the country (including Kyiv where Russians amount to 13.1% of the population)[1] remained largely Russophone as of 2003.[2]

Traditionally mixed Russo-Ukrainian populated territories are mainly historic Novorossiya (New Russia) and Sloboda Ukraine – now both split between the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

Russians constitute the majority in Crimea (71.7% in Sevastopol and 58.5% in the Autonomous republic of Crimea),[1] the southern peninsula which the Soviet government transferred from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954.

Outside of Crimea, Russians are the largest ethnic group in [3] Donetsk (48.2%) and Makiyivka (50.8%) in Donetsk Oblast, Ternivka (52.9%) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Krasnodon (63.3%) and Sverdlovsk (58.7%) and Krasnodonskyi raion (51.7%) and Stanychno-Luhanskyi (61.1%) raion in Luhansk Oblast, Reni (70.54%) and Izmail (43.7%) in Odessa oblast, Putyvl Raion (51.6%) in Sumy Oblast.[4]

According to 2006 survey by Research & Branding Group (Donetsk) 39% of Ukrainian citizens think that the rights of the Russophones are violated because the Russian language is not official in the country, whereas 38% of the citizens have the opposite position.[66][67] According to annual surveys by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences 43.9% to 52.0% of the total population of Ukraine supports the idea of granting the status of state language to Russian.[32] At the same time, this is not viewed as an important issue by most of Ukraine's citizens. On a cross-national survey involving ranking the 30 important political issues, the legal status of the Russian language was ranked 26th, with only 8% of respondents (concentrated primarily in Crimea and Donetsk) feeling that this was an important issue.[68]

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

So Ukraine has about 6 weeks to start making some gains. Even if the momentum may be shifting slowly, that's a difficult task.

What is the difference between a fake referendum now, a fake referendum six weeks from now, a fake referendum six weeks ago or a fake referendum six months from now? Any such referendum will be moot once Ukraine pushes out the Rashists anyway.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I notice that barbos has yet to specify which nation should get which parts of Ukraine. Which parts Russia should get, Poland should get, Hungary should get, Romania should get, etc.


I do concede that there is a sort of division in Ukraine, between the pro-Russian and the nationalist parts. The eastern and southern parts are the pro-Russian parts, while the central, northern, and western parts are the nationalist parts. While the pro-Russian parts might be a good fit for Russia, the nationalist parts would not be a good fit for any other nation.

Although the nationalist parts extend over the farthest extent of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, I don't think that the nationalist Ukrainians want to merge with Poland.

You should probably be careful about designating parts of Ukraine as "pro-Russian", since that expresses a political preference rather than ethnicity. Since the invasion, a lot of attitudes have changed, especially in the occupied territories of the east, where Russian is the dominant language. A lot of Ukrainians are like Zelensky in that they are Russian-dominant speakers, but they can be extremely pro-Ukrainian. Especially older Ukrainians and those living in the east and near the Black Sea tend to have a history of being more sympathetic to ties with Russia. However, the occupation has been so brutal that all bets are off on that score. For example, Mariupol, a totally Russian-speaking city, has been devastated and depopulated by the occupiers. Kharkiv is another area that has historically been somewhat more Russia-sympathetic, but the returning Ukrainian forces are being treated with an overwhelming sense of relief. I doubt that Russia is going to win any real popularity contests even in Crimea anymore.

You are absolutely correct here. Before Russia invaded, the country really was split about 50-50 (pro west vs pro east). Zelensky barely won election. Once Putler invaded, the country united. The Ukranian family staying with my in-laws in Poland were very pro-Putin. They are Russian speakers. Dislike Ukrainian culture. No more. They hate Russia now. Both of the dads joined the militia that defended Kyiv from Russian invaders. One of them is most likely dead. Putler has united the west, united Nato and united Ukraine against Russia.

 

[ZiprHead]