How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[SLD]

Ukrainians are being trained by NATO people probably with combat experince.

No one in NATO has this kind of combat experience. Afghanistan combat consisted of IEDs. Only rarely was there ever force on force. And that was primarily the Americans.

 

[SLD]

India's Modi tells Putin: Now is not the time for war

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to have directly rebuffed Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, telling Russian President Vladimir Putin that now is not the time for war.

www.cnn.com

So Putin suffers another defeat. After being told off by Xi he now gets told off by Modi.

Interestingly, Modi was deliberately late. This was Putin’s style before, famously being late for the Queen, the pope and other world leaders to show them he was more important. Now the tables are turned. This is a serious protocol issue that people in Russia are bound to notice.

 

[steve_bank]

Ukrainians are being trained by NATO people probably with combat experince.

No one in NATO has this kind of combat experience. Afghanistan combat consisted of IEDs. Only rarely was there ever force on force. And that was primarily the Americans.

Afghanistan and Iraq I'd say qualifies as combat experience.

The Ukrainians are appearing very focused, well planned. and disciplined. I expect some of that comes from the NATO trainers. The trangin started well before the war.

If as promised Ukraine had been admitted into NATO for aligning with Europe the war may have been avoided.

 

[Jayjay]

Looking at sites like War Mapper (@War_Mapper) / Twitter the war has reverted to a slow hard slog, though with Ukraine slowly advancing. Like:

War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
have crossed the Oskil river in Kupiansk and have liberated the eastern side of the city.
also crossed the river south of the settlement of Oskil and advanced to Studenok and Sosnove. have reportedly already abandoned both of these settlements.
(pic link)" / Twitter

Anyone who thinks that Russia will just crumble after a single attack is a fool.

This is more like death by a thousand cuts. Or possibly Russia will gain the upper hand again like it did in late May and June.

Keep in mind while Russian “volunteers” get little if any training, Ukrainians are being trained for five weeks at one of six training facilities in the UK by trainers from eight or nine different countries. Ukraine is putting soldiers on the field. Russia is putting fodder.

Only a fraction of Ukrainian troops are getting proper training. Russia can strike any larger training facility inside Ukraine at any time (as it has done in the past), and the number of soldiers being trained abroad is limited, so most of the Ukrainian soldiers are not that great either. They are better motivated though, because they're defending their own country, and after the recent successes have gained some confidence too.

Both sides have some excellent troops, and some poorly trained and equipped ones. The victory in Kharkiv oblast was due to Ukraine being able to concentrate their best stuff in one location, against Russia's weakest flank.

 

[crazyfingers]

They are better motivated though, because they're defending their own country, and after the recent successes have gained some confidence too.

“That even though we've got a fight ahead of us, we've got one thing that Voldemort doesn't have. - Something worth fighting for.”
-Harry Potter, Ending scene of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

 

[Copernicus]

Both sides have some excellent troops, and some poorly trained and equipped ones. The victory in Kharkiv oblast was due to Ukraine being able to concentrate their best stuff in one location, against Russia's weakest flank.

That's right. Strategy can outweigh tactics, firepower, and training. Ukraine not only seems to have developed an excellent defensive force, but they are also now learning how to go on the offense. They are getting a lot from foreign support, but the decisive factors so far have been motivation, innovation, and national solidarity. They showed some of this in the revolution that deposed Viktor Yanukovych, but Putin had no idea what he would stir up when he began his February invasion.

 

[steve_bank]

NATO does not have to train everyone/

They only have to train NCOs like sergeants and officers at the lieutenant level in leadership and small unit tactics. Along with training senior officers in strategy, tactics, and supply chain management.

Privide leaders that can prvde structure to a willing and commuted army.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jayjay]

NATO does not have to train everyone/

They only have to train NCOs like sergeants and officers at the lieutenant level in leadership and small unit tactics. Along with training senior officers in strategy, tactics, and supply chain management.

Privide leaders that can prvde structure to a willing and commuted army.

At the moment, NATO does have to train (almost) everyone, even regular troops, which is what at least UK is doing. Any large barracks in Ukraine would be under a threat of missile strikes, so the only way safely to do even basic training is abroad. Russia doesn't have this problem obviously.

Also specialized training is needed for the donated equipment.

 

[lpetrich]

There is an unconfirmed rumor that Ukraine has recaptured Lysychansk, but in any case, they seem to be close to that town and another one, Lyman. There is an unconfirmed rumor about the latter one that Ukrainian forces have surrounded it and are requesting the surrender of the Russians there.

The Russians still have some fight in them, however.
WarMonitor on Twitter: "
Ukrainian forces south of Bakhmut are under heavy bombardment and assault tonight.
The situation is described as "there’s an extremely difficult situation in Bakhmut"
Defenders are holding their positions!" / Twitter
and
Pax Lusitanica on Twitter: "@WarMonitor3 Fighting is intense. The eastern approaches to the city, notably a residential area around Patrisa Lumumby Street, have been under particularly heavy bombardment. (link)" / Twitter
 Patrice Lumumba - first prime minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, an African nationalist and pan-Africanist that many people consider a martyr.

 

[barbos]

Romanian foreign minister (former) said out loud what everybody in the Eastern Europe says privately. Ukraine should be split between Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania. He basically agreed with Putin speech about Ukraine being not being a real county. Nazi regime of course demanded explanation from Romania

Interesting and very relevant to this thread discussion about the state of the journalism in the West.

 

[Patooka]

Ukraine should be split between Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania.

Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot approve of such idiocy.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine should be split between Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania.

Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot approve of such idiocy.

I don't know who they are. But that's what everyone in Eastern Europe thinks.
And I actually have first hand experience with this problem
I served in Soviet Army with people from Ukraine. Their Romanians happened to speak russian. But hungarians were a different story. They claimed they spoke russian, but nobody was able to understand them.
Ukraine should go to pre WW1 borders/status.

 

[Patooka]

I don't know who they are. But that's what everyone in Eastern Europe thinks.

Ukraine is in Eastern Europe. I doubt they think the same way. Or Estonia. Or even Poland for that matter.

That you are completely ignorant of what typically happens when foreign invaders attempt to carve up a nation isn't lost to anyone, by the way.

 

[barbos]

I don't know who they are. But that's what everyone in Eastern Europe thinks.

Ukraine is in Eastern Europe. I doubt they think the same way. Or Estonia. Or even Poland for that matter.

That you are completely ignorant of what typically happens when foreign invaders attempt to carve up a nation isn't lost to anyone, by the way.

Actually, Poland pretty much accepted that they are getting back their chunk.
And don't confuse Baltic State political class (on State Department payrol) and regular people. I happened to have distant relatives there too.

 

[barbos]

That you are completely ignorant of what typically happens when foreign invaders attempt to carve up a nation isn't lost to anyone, by the way.

You are ignorant, not me.
Anyway, that's what Romanian foreign Minister said. Romania by the way, is as pro-NATO and pro-EU as it gets.

 

[bilby]

That you are completely ignorant of what typically happens when foreign invaders attempt to carve up a nation isn't lost to anyone, by the way.

You are ignorant, not me.

Then I suggest you sue this guy for slander:

I don't know who they are.

 

[barbos]

That you are completely ignorant of what typically happens when foreign invaders attempt to carve up a nation isn't lost to anyone, by the way.

You are ignorant, not me.

Then I suggest you sue this guy for slander:

I don't know who they are.

I don't have to know every guy on this planet.
The fact is, people in Eastern Europe are way less ignorant than you. And they do not support this NATO war on Russia.

 

[Patooka]

The fact is, people in Eastern Europe are way less ignorant than you. And they do not support this NATO war on Russia.

When did NATO invade Russia again? I must have missed that.