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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?


Using standardized, civilian parts means they can be smuggled into the country easily than military-grade hardware. Some time ago Russians got caught stealing speed cameras in Sweden to be used in Ukraine, for example. I don't think any sanctions regime can block Russia from getting these components through friendly nations. China is probably able to sell them the components they need too.
With those cameras the Russikies could clock the speed at which the Ukrainians are advancing. Seem a waste, though of the parts.
 
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Zelesky is exhibiting remediable composure and discipline. No wild accusations, rants, and hostility towards Putin. At least in public.

Rational and methodical.
 
Yes. And Ukraine just blitzed Wagner Group's HQ. Good stuff.
Wounded Russians needed to be transported to Crimea because other Russians stole the medical equipment needed to save them.

Governor of the Russian-occupied Luhansk region
Serhiy Gaidai said:
"I am sure that at least 50% of those who managed to survive will die before they get medical care," he said. "This is because even in our Luhansk region, they have stolen equipment."
 
Yes. And Ukraine just blitzed Wagner Group's HQ. Good stuff.
Wounded Russians needed to be transported to Crimea because other Russians stole the medical equipment needed to save them.
Don't think he said anything about Crimea, and it would make no sense to haul the wounded from Kadiivka all the way there. You're confusing it with the strike in Melitopol a day before.
 
Zelesky is exhibiting remediable composure and discipline. No wild accusations, rants, and hostility towards Putin. At least in public.

Rational and methodical.
Yes. And Ukraine just blitzed Wagner Group's HQ. Good stuff.
Wagner war criminals deserve what's coming to them. But strikes behind the front lines, while they may inconvenience the enemy, don't win the war. Russia still has the initiative and is slowly creeping forward.

As long as Russia is making progress, no matter the cost, Putin can sell that as a victory at home. Time is on his side.
 
Morale is important.

That iconic optimistic face and smile of Eisenhower was practiced. He knew any hint of doubt on his part could spread through the army.

The Doolittle road on Tokyo was a blow to Japanese morale.

From what I read on WWII I don't think Montgomery was a great tactician. I do give him high marks for turning Brtish morale around at El Alamein. The Brits were demoralized and mentally whipped.

Ukrainians have a tough time. For Russian soldiers it may be more miserable. Being told they are winning and knowng they are being attacked behind them creates doubt.

Hitting Crimea adds confusion to the Russian military leadership. More variables to deal with.

Zelenski is the right person at the right time. He understands presenting a positive image as a leader in a crisis. Putin is all negative.

If the Ukrainians give up hope and faith it is all over..
 
Russia still has the initiative
How do you figure that considering Russia has steadily been losing ground since June? Ukraine has very much been dictating the tempo of this conflict.
Ukraine has picked up the low-hanging fruit. And June is an arbitrary point: it was when Ukraine got the HIMARS and was able to start disrupting Russian logistics. If you look back at February, clearly Russia has only gained ground. The war has had its ebbs and flows, but right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense. Since Kherson, Ukraine's made no progress.

Ukraine's not getting enough weapons to stem the tide. Russia on the other hand is still ramping up.
 
right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense.
Well yeah, that's the nature of conquest. You don't stay home and wait for someone to attack you, you attack them and hopefully subdue them quickly. If you fuck it up and attack someone but can't subdue them, then when you get pushed back, you are losing ground, even though that ground might not have been yours in the first place. And the people who are kicking your ass, are doing so "on defense". But kicking your ass nonetheless.
Russia's high water mark was like, 9 months ago. They've been losing every since, even though, as the invader they are doing so on "offense".
 
right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense.
Well yeah, that's the nature of conquest. You don't stay home and wait for someone to attack you, you attack them and hopefully subdue them quickly. If you fuck it up and attack someone but can't subdue them, then when you get pushed back, you are losing ground, even though that ground might not have been yours in the first place. And the people who are kicking your ass, are doing so "on defense". But kicking your ass nonetheless.
Russia's high water mark was like, 9 months ago. They've been losing every since, even though, as the invader they are doing so on "offense".
The point is that right now Russia is not losing any ground. They're gaining it. That's not to say Ukraine can't regain the initiative, but to me it looks like they've played their cards and unless they can get considerably more weapons and training, and new tactics to counter Russian artillery in particular (as I pointed out before, the number of artillery pieces reported destroyed by Ukraine is pretty low), they'll continue to lose ground. And I don't think it's a linear process. Just like in Kharkiv and Kherson where Ukraine made large gains in a matter of days before frontlines stabilized, the Ukrainian defensive line might collapse and be pushed back a large distance almost overnight.
 
Ukraine has picked up the low-hanging fruit. And June is an arbitrary point: it was when Ukraine got the HIMARS and was able to start disrupting Russian logistics. If you look back at February, clearly Russia has only gained ground. The war has had its ebbs and flows, but right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense. Since Kherson, Ukraine's made no progress.
By that logic, Napoleon still had the initiative at Waterloo. Most people would disagree.
Ukraine's not getting enough weapons to stem the tide. Russia on the other hand is still ramping up (emphasis mine)
With the exception of barbos' posts, I have seen no indication that what you just said is happening.
 
Russia got pushed back. Captured land and towns taken back.

I really do not see where Russia has the initiative.

Initiative equates to motivation. Ukraine is fighting for hearth and home much as the Russians were in WWII. What is private Ivan conscripted and thrown into the front fighting for?

You have to think the averge Russian soldier realizes the position he is in.
 
right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense.
Well yeah, that's the nature of conquest. You don't stay home and wait for someone to attack you, you attack them and hopefully subdue them quickly. If you fuck it up and attack someone but can't subdue them, then when you get pushed back, you are losing ground, even though that ground might not have been yours in the first place. And the people who are kicking your ass, are doing so "on defense". But kicking your ass nonetheless.
Russia's high water mark was like, 9 months ago. They've been losing every since, even though, as the invader they are doing so on "offense".
The point is that right now Russia is not losing any ground. They're gaining it. That's not to say Ukraine can't regain the initiative, but to me it looks like they've played their cards and unless they can get considerably more weapons and training, and new tactics to counter Russian artillery in particular (as I pointed out before, the number of artillery pieces reported destroyed by Ukraine is pretty low), they'll continue to lose ground. And I don't think it's a linear process. Just like in Kharkiv and Kherson where Ukraine made large gains in a matter of days before frontlines stabilized, the Ukrainian defensive line might collapse and be pushed back a large distance almost overnight.

I have to agree with the others that you are being overly pessimistic about the progress of the war. It seems that the small progress being made is by the Ukrainian side, which has Russian troops on their back foot. During the winter months, the lines aren't going to be moving very much, but the Melitopol strike and strikes on Russian air bases are having a greater effect than attempts from Russian troops to regain territory they've lost in the past months. Things may look like they are stalled, but that does not mean Russia has the initiative. Not only does Putin seem less confident, but many Russians have been feeling emboldened to take public stances against the war. Nothing has worked out the way it was promised shortly after the February invasion began, and that is obvious to people inside the Russian information bubble.
 
Russia still has the initiative
How do you figure that considering Russia has steadily been losing ground since June? Ukraine has very much been dictating the tempo of this conflict.
Ukraine has picked up the low-hanging fruit. And June is an arbitrary point: it was when Ukraine got the HIMARS and was able to start disrupting Russian logistics. If you look back at February, clearly Russia has only gained ground. The war has had its ebbs and flows, but right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense. Since Kherson, Ukraine's made no progress.

Ukraine's not getting enough weapons to stem the tide. Russia on the other hand is still ramping up.
It does not appear to me that Ukraine is trying to make progress on the battle front. The battle line favors the defense, Ukraine is taking advantage of that while focusing it's efforts on hollowing out the Russian forces so they can pull another breakthrough like the one they already pulled that caused the Russian lines to fall way back. Look what happened before--bypass the strong points, the troops retreat rather than get cut off and the retreat path becomes a shooting gallery.
 
Ukraine is taking advantage of that while focusing it's efforts on hollowing out the Russian forces so they can pull another breakthrough like the one they already pulled that caused the Russian lines to fall way back. Look what happened before--bypass the strong points, the troops retreat rather than get cut off and the retreat path becomes a shooting gallery.
Which means they are dictating the course and direction of the war. I've never been in the military, but I'm sure there's a word for that.
 
The U.S. just took the handcuffs off Ukraine's desire to strike at Russian military targets inside Russia that support the invasion. That is a major game changer. Ukraine has already been doing this but now it is doing it with support from the U.S. and NATO. It's about time.

The United States will no longer forbid Ukraine from executing drone strikes in Russian territory. The Ukrainian military has already used unmanned aircraft to attack Russian airbases, and Washington has now given Kyiv its approval to hit Russia inside its own borders more extensively. The United States had previously ruled against Ukrainian strikes in Russia for fear of escalating the war.

Putin Should Be Scared: Ukraine Is Set to Start Hitting Russian Territory

Of course this draws more threats from Russian Hitler, nuclear first strike in response, etc. More threats, threats that are never backed up. Really no one wants war and Russian Hitler has been banking on the fact that so long as he threatens a wider conflict NATO will back down. And he's been right. Nice to see that finally change. At least if the war does widen we can know we did everything to keep it from widening short of sacrificing Ukraine and the legacy of Democracy to Russian Hitler. Seems Churchill has been screaming from his grave and we finally heard him.
 
I think it is more like we relaxed restrictions on how they use our weapons.

Ukraine does not need our permission to strike inside Rusia.
 
Ukraine has picked up the low-hanging fruit. And June is an arbitrary point: it was when Ukraine got the HIMARS and was able to start disrupting Russian logistics. If you look back at February, clearly Russia has only gained ground. The war has had its ebbs and flows, but right now, Russia is the one who's attacking and determining the pace, and Ukraine's on the defense. Since Kherson, Ukraine's made no progress.
By that logic, Napoleon still had the initiative at Waterloo. Most people would disagree.
Ukraine's not getting enough weapons to stem the tide. Russia on the other hand is still ramping up (emphasis mine)
With the exception of barbos' posts, I have seen no indication that what you just said is happening.
The mobilization is still going on. More troops are being sent to the front, with better training. I think Russian MoD itself said that about 140k or so of the 300k have been sent to the front. If true, then the other half is still on their way. And that's still short of the million or so that they are prepared to mobilize.

Same with military production. That's clearly been ramped up since the summer, with laws in place to threaten military contractors and workers with prison time if they fail to fulfill orders. I realize this is a case of "beatings will continue until morale improves", but there's no reason to think Russia hasn't been gearing up for a long for months now.
 
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