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A spectre is haunting Europe ...

It's lookin' like Greece has spawned some fans!!!

While I agree with your sentiments and I find your posts valuable and informative, epilepsy runs in my family and I feel like I'm going to spazz out and start flopping around on the floor while reading your formatting.

Better keep an eye, out, for the White Wing's Theocratistas!!!

You start spazzing out and flopping around on the floor, and they're likely to think you're possessed....and, you know what THAT can lead-to!!!


foxe208.gif

CONVERSION-THERAPY!!!!!
 
You guys know that Greece is currently running a surplus, right?

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf



The argument now is about how much of that surplus should go to creditors and how much Greece should be able to keep to spend on further improvements.

And you are aware the topic of this thread is that they just elected a bunch of leftish buffoons who will likely put a stop to that?

Although I'm sure in hindsight when we examine the wreckage they will have stopped somewhere short of *real*socialism

And you're aware that people itt are characterizing Greece as a petulant child that can't manage their own economy when in fact they have their economy turned around?
 
And you are aware the topic of this thread is that they just elected a bunch of leftish buffoons who will likely put a stop to that?

Although I'm sure in hindsight when we examine the wreckage they will have stopped somewhere short of *real*socialism

And you're aware that people itt are characterizing Greece as a petulant child that can't manage their own economy when in fact they have their economy turned around?

They turned their deficits around. Because they were required to turn their deficits around by their sugar daddy. Not quite the same thing as turning their economy around.

And this thread is about the election they just had that repudiated the "turned the deficit around" thing. So now the petulant child's problem is how they are going to ramp up spending while pissing off sugar daddy to the point where he won't give them the money to do it.
 
You guys know that Greece is currently running a surplus, right?

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf



The argument now is about how much of that surplus should go to creditors and how much Greece should be able to keep to spend on further improvements.

And you are aware the topic of this thread is that they just elected a bunch of leftish buffoons who will likely put a stop to that?

Although I'm sure in hindsight when we examine the wreckage they will have stopped somewhere short of *real*socialism​
...Unless, of course, the CIA steps-in and....

...Straightens-Things-Out!!!
August 19, 2013

*​
" While the National Security Archive applauds the CIA's decision to make these materials available, today's posting shows clearly that these materials could have been safely declassified many years ago without risk of damage to the national security. (See sidebar, "Why is the Coup Still a Secret?")

Archive Deputy Director Malcolm Byrne called for the U.S. intelligence community to make fully available the remaining records on the coup period. "There is no longer good reason to keep secrets about such a critical episode in our recent past. The basic facts are widely known to every school child in Iran. Suppressing the details only distorts the history, and feeds into myth-making on all sides."
 
And this thread is about the election they just had that repudiated the "turned the deficit around" thing. So now the petulant child's problem is how they are going to ramp up spending while pissing off sugar daddy to the point where he won't give them the money to do it.

Maybe you didn't catch that Greece is running a surplus. That means they have the money to do it. However if the "sugar daddy" insists on taking all the surplus for himself then he is being the petulant child and is working against the health of the Greek economy. Therefore I'm not surprised the Greek people elected a party to stand up to the sugar daddy.
 
And this thread is about the election they just had that repudiated the "turned the deficit around" thing. So now the petulant child's problem is how they are going to ramp up spending while pissing off sugar daddy to the point where he won't give them the money to do it.

Maybe you didn't catch that Greece is running a surplus. That means they have the money to do it. However if the "sugar daddy" insists on taking all the surplus for himself then he is being the petulant child and is working against the health of the Greek economy. Therefore I'm not surprised the Greek people elected a party to stand up to the sugar daddy.

Oh, I'm sorry I didn't realize we had someone here who could speak with great authority on the fiscal situation in Greece.

What exactly do they "have the means to do"?

Can you show how will "do it" while returning to the EU community's 60% debt-to-GDP requirement?
 
You guys know that Greece is currently running a surplus, right?

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf



The argument now is about how much of that surplus should go to creditors and how much Greece should be able to keep to spend on further improvements.

And whether they should stay in the Euro. The problem with sharing a currency with Germany is that your currency ends up being overvalued compared to the local economy, and your exports suffer as a result. The advantage of sharing a currency with Greece is that your currency ends being undervalued compared to the local economy, and you end up with your exports being far more competitive than they otherwise would be. The effect is a transfer of wealth from Greece to Germany.

I read this morning that it will take 48 years of running 3% surpluses to pay the debt in full. How likely is that?
 
The issue with Greece is that they continue to be a problem. There comes a point where supporting a basket case is a bad idea and I think we've passed that point with Greece.

Sure, impose disastrous policies that do more harm than good and then claim it is the victims of those policies that are to blame.

You don't get it--had those policies not been imposed the results would have been even worse--nobody would lend to them anymore, their economy would have crashed far harder than it did.

The only way they wouldn't have been devastated is if people kept supplying them money--but nobody wanted to do that without changes to give them a reasonable chance of repaying their debts.
 
And this thread is about the election they just had that repudiated the "turned the deficit around" thing. So now the petulant child's problem is how they are going to ramp up spending while pissing off sugar daddy to the point where he won't give them the money to do it.

Maybe you didn't catch that Greece is running a surplus. That means they have the money to do it. However if the "sugar daddy" insists on taking all the surplus for himself then he is being the petulant child and is working against the health of the Greek economy. Therefore I'm not surprised the Greek people elected a party to stand up to the sugar daddy.
Ok ksen, could you define the “surplus” you are referencing? I do see that they have barely gone positive on their current account balance. However, per Figure 7 (page 37), one can see from the graph that it has barely swung over to positive due to collapsing imports. That isn’t exactly a great indicator. It basically suggests that Greeks can’t afford much. Exports have been flat for the last 2 years.

As far as national government budgets go, there seems to be a goodly amount of doublespeak.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-expects-primary-budget-surplus-for-2015-1416567297
According to the budget, Greece will achieve a primary budget surplus—before taking into account debt payments—of €3.3 billion ($4.1 billion), equal to 3% of gross domestic product, next year, which is in line with the country’s bailout program.

Overall, the government will record only a minor budget deficit of €338 million—equivalent to just 0.2% of gross domestic product—next year, in effect marking the first balanced budget Greece has produced in four decades.

Part of this predicted surplus depends on 2.9% GDP growth in 2015. Hell the US rarely gets their rosy GDP numbers right, I don’t think I’m ready to bet on the Greeks.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/b...ced-budget-after-years-of-recession.html?_r=0
Apart from a deficit target of 0.2 percent of gross domestic product, the budget predicts that the Greek economy, which has shrunk by a quarter in the past five years, will expand by 2.9 percent of G.D.P. in 2015 after a timid return to growth this year. It also promises relief, notably 30 percent reductions in a tax on heating oil and an income tax surcharge.

The budget remains theoretical. It has not been formally approved by Greece’s so-called troika of international creditors
<snip> The crucial point of contention in continuing talks between Greece and the troika is a projected budget gap for next year. The creditors believe the government will miss its deficit target, which would oblige authorities to make an estimated €2.5 billion in additional cuts.

Never mind that the ECB is also supporting Greek banks with emergency ELA funds as well.
 
Ok ksen, could you define the “surplus” you are referencing?

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf

top of page 4

1. Greece has continued to make significant progress in rebalancing the economy. The scale of pre-crisis imbalances and indebtedness—an overall fiscal deficit of 15½ percent of GDP at end-2009, an external current account deficit of 11 percent of GDP, and public debt of nearly 130 percent of GDP—meant that Greece had no option but to undertake a sizeable adjustment, when the capital inflows that financed them came to a sudden stop in early 2010. By end-2013, the primary fiscal and external current account balances were in surplus. To have reached a surplus so swiftly is an extraordinary adjustment by any international comparison.

Whatever definition the IMF was using.
 
Some fun with Greco numbers:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/01/greek-payback-math-at-0-interest.html
Greece has something like €315 billion of public debt.
<snip>
The above total is a "modest" €256 billion to be paid back over time.

Assume 0% interest
Assume a Current Account Surplus of 3% of GDP
Assume Greek Debt-to-GDP is 176%
Assume Greek Debt €312 billion
Assume Greek GDP is €178 billion

Point 5 is derived from points 3 and 4. The numbers seem to vary a bit depending on the source, but they should be close enough for this exercise.

Payback Math at 0% Interest

Let's assume that Greece can run a 3% current account surplus for as long as it takes to pay back €256 billion.

3% of €178 billion is €5.35 billion. To pay back €256 billion it would take about 48 years. That assumes 0% interest and a 3% current account surplus every year for 48 years!

Those calculations ignore rising GDP. But they also ignore a huge burden on Greek citizens for 48 years.

Let's be honest: Greece is not going to run current account surpluses of 3% per year for perpetuity.
Both sides are living in a fantasy…for differing reasons though
 
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf

top of page 4

1. Greece has continued to make significant progress in rebalancing the economy. The scale of pre-crisis imbalances and indebtedness—an overall fiscal deficit of 15½ percent of GDP at end-2009, an external current account deficit of 11 percent of GDP, and public debt of nearly 130 percent of GDP—meant that Greece had no option but to undertake a sizeable adjustment, when the capital inflows that financed them came to a sudden stop in early 2010. By end-2013, the primary fiscal and external current account balances were in surplus. To have reached a surplus so swiftly is an extraordinary adjustment by any international comparison.

Whatever definition the IMF was using.
Ok, that is the current account balance, and I'd say the IMF is full of flowery shit, specifically that last sentence you quoted. Look at the graph I referenced. Imports collapsed, and that is what balanced the numbers. Why does a country have a collapse of imported products?
 
Some fun with Greco numbers:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/01/greek-payback-math-at-0-interest.html
Greece has something like €315 billion of public debt.
<snip>
The above total is a "modest" €256 billion to be paid back over time.

Assume 0% interest
Assume a Current Account Surplus of 3% of GDP
Assume Greek Debt-to-GDP is 176%
Assume Greek Debt €312 billion
Assume Greek GDP is €178 billion

Point 5 is derived from points 3 and 4. The numbers seem to vary a bit depending on the source, but they should be close enough for this exercise.

Payback Math at 0% Interest

Let's assume that Greece can run a 3% current account surplus for as long as it takes to pay back €256 billion.

3% of €178 billion is €5.35 billion. To pay back €256 billion it would take about 48 years. That assumes 0% interest and a 3% current account surplus every year for 48 years!

Those calculations ignore rising GDP. But they also ignore a huge burden on Greek citizens for 48 years.

Let's be honest: Greece is not going to run current account surpluses of 3% per year for perpetuity.
Both sides are living in a fantasy…for differing reasons though

Modest surpluses plus nominal GDP growth ought to work quicker than that, but the last sentence is the key one. Considering they just elected a bunch of spendy leftists.
 
I agree that's Greece's profligate spending was a huge problem and should have been avoided by making people pay the taxes they were supposed to. Yes, raise the retirement age, but at least help people be fed properly and cared for medically.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/tough-austerity-measures-in-greece-leave-nearly-a-million-people-with-no-access-to-healthcare-leading-to-soaring-infant-mortality-hiv-infection-and-suicide-9142274.html

An onerous debt is one there is no possibility of being repaid. I doubt the Greek people have much control of their government or its borrowing or spending. The so-called loans ended up in SOMEONE'S HANDS. It is obvious it wasn't the Greek people or there would be a residual wealth circulating in that country today. What we have in Greece is developing nicely in America as well. If the Greek people are not thriving, then the money loaned to their government was stolen in some manner by design...either by Greek oligarchs or foreign interests.

Some time ago, I watched a TV special on a massive preservation project for the Parthenon. This and other structures on the Acropolis are alleged to be symbols of a society that gave birth to the principle of democracy. The money for these projects with all their nit picking experts and bureaucrats must have been in some way involved in the accrual of this debt, spending money that contributed to restoration of a symbol...not the present day people of Greece.

I read the entire link you posted and ended up still not knowing the important facts regarding how this debt was accrued...or where the loans were actually spent. Something seems grossly out of kilter with this story. It is my guess it is the same type of crookedness as we see all the time in Wall Street....totally opaque. It keeps your thoughts about the matter from settling on the actual cause of the problem....not a nation full of worthless squanderers, but a nation with a few profligate squanderers being aided by outside investors.
 
I agree that's Greece's profligate spending was a huge problem and should have been avoided by making people pay the taxes they were supposed to. Yes, raise the retirement age, but at least help people be fed properly and cared for medically.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/tough-austerity-measures-in-greece-leave-nearly-a-million-people-with-no-access-to-healthcare-leading-to-soaring-infant-mortality-hiv-infection-and-suicide-9142274.html

An onerous debt is one there is no possibility of being repaid. I doubt the Greek people have much control of their government or its borrowing or spending. The so-called loans ended up in SOMEONE'S HANDS. It is obvious it wasn't the Greek people or there would be a residual wealth circulating in that country today. What we have in Greece is developing nicely in America as well. If the Greek people are not thriving, then the money loaned to their government was stolen in some manner by design...either by Greek oligarchs or foreign interests.
I read part of this lengthy article the other day, linked from another article on Greece, and it probably is a decent summary of the mess (with a snippet:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142196/pavlos-eleftheriadis/misrule-of-the-few
The biggest barrier to Karamanlis’ reforms, however, was opposition from the media. Most Greeks get their news from television, and eight private channels, all controlled by well-known businesspeople, share over 90 percent of the market. Some of the owners, such as Yiannis Alafouzos, who founded the Skai media group, are shipping magnates whose businesses rely little on state contracts and licenses. But most have their hands in a broad array of businesses that depend heavily on government patronage. Vardis Vardinoyannis, a lead investor in Greece’s largest television station, Mega, controls two petroleum companies, Motor Oil Hellas and Vegas Oil & Gas, in addition to holding a significant stake in Greece’s biggest bank, Piraeus. Other Mega shareholders include George Bobolas, whose gold-mining operation relies on government licenses and whose construction company built facilities for the 2004 Olympics, and Stavros Psycharis, whose business interests range from printing to real estate to tourism.
<snip>
Just as the oligarchs and their political allies use the media to avoid public scrutiny, so they rely on government regulations to retain control of the state. For the past three decades, two highly organized interest groups have profited the most under Greek law: first, elite professionals, such as lawyers, doctors, and engineers, and second, unionized employees of utilities owned wholly or partially by the state, such as the Public Power Corporation and the Hellenic Railways Organization. The memberships of such groups are not large. Greece has only about 40,000 lawyers, 60,000 doctors, and 87,000 engineers. Public-sector employees number around 600,000. Yet what these groups lack in numbers they more than make up for in organization. By leveraging their ability to drive voter turnout in key urban constituencies, the professionals and the unions have won extraordinary privileges. For example, many professional associations can set standard prices for basic services, a form of collusion that is illegal in many economies but not in Greece. They are also permitted to self-regulate. When accusations of malpractice arise, the associations themselves have the exclusive right to discipline their members. Moreover, special taxes fund their health-care and retirement accounts: since 1960, the pension fund for lawyers and judges has collected a stamp duty on all property transactions amounting to 1.3 percent of each sale price. And for decades, the doctors’ pension fund benefited from a 6.5 percent charge on the value of all drugs prescribed.
 
Some fun with Greco numbers:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/01/greek-payback-math-at-0-interest.html

Both sides are living in a fantasy…for differing reasons though

Modest surpluses plus nominal GDP growth ought to work quicker than that, but the last sentence is the key one. Considering they just elected a bunch of spendy leftists.

Those calculations are based on zero growth. Also zero interest...

Also, according to the same post, using different accounting gives a much rosier picture:

One figure on which everyone tends to agree, however, is that Greece’s public debt is 177 per cent of gross domestic product, the highest level in the eurozone. Well, everyone but a private equity group and a number of accountants, who think the relevant figure could be as low as 68 per cent.
 
Modest surpluses plus nominal GDP growth ought to work quicker than that, but the last sentence is the key one. Considering they just elected a bunch of spendy leftists.

Those calculations are based on zero growth. Also zero interest...

Also, according to the same post, using different accounting gives a much rosier picture:

One figure on which everyone tends to agree, however, is that Greece’s public debt is 177 per cent of gross domestic product, the highest level in the eurozone. Well, everyone but a private equity group and a number of accountants, who think the relevant figure could be as low as 68 per cent.

Yes, I think zero growth is a bad assumption. Unless you have just elected a bunch of spendy leftists who are going to pick a fight with your sugar daddy.

Interest ought to be baked into the surplus number. If you aren't paying your interest, you don't have a surplus.

But if you grow GDP by a nominal 3% and maintain a 3% surplus you should be able to knock about 65 or 70% off your debt-to-GDP in 10 years.
 
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