Will bird flu be the next pandemic?

[southernhybrid]

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/h5n1-response-12232024.html

The above link goes into a lot of detail about the virus and about the patient with the severe case.

The remainder of the genetic sequences of A/Louisiana/12/2024 were closely related to sequences detected in wild bird and poultry D1.1 genotype viruses, including poultry identified on the property of the patient, providing further evidence that the human case was most likely infected following exposure to birds infected with D1.1 genotype virus.

Follow Up Actions

Overall, CDC considers the risk to the general public associated with the ongoing U.S. HPAI A(H5N1) outbreak has not changed and remains low. The detection of a severe human case with genetic changes in a clinical specimen underscores the importance of ongoing genomic surveillance in people and animals, containment of avian influenza A(H5) outbreaks in dairy cattle and poultry, and prevention measures among people with exposure to infected animals or environments.

So, the CDC still considers the risk to the public to be low, but it does appear as if the virus is mutating in humans who have been infected. Something to watch for sure.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Again, I can't share the article so I will quote from one that was just published today in ScientificAmerican.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...irus-mutations-found-in-severely-ill-patient/

Viral samples from a patient in Louisiana who was hospitalized with severe H5N1 avian influenza show genetic mutations that could make the pathogen spread more easily among humans, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced in a statement issued on Thursday.

The mutations were found in samples taken from the patient—but not in those from the backyard poultry that were believed to be the source of the infection. This suggests the changes occurred within the patient. While this development has not changed the CDC’s official assessment of risk to the general public, it does indicate that the H5N1 virus is capable of adapting to human airways.

That's getting scary.

There's always nasty influenza about, what counts is how well it spreads.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

This one seems to be nasty for the cows but it doesn't seem to be very transmissible between people. It hasn't blown up from the cases that we have seen. Thus it's more likely to be a milk and beef price issue than a killer.

Not yet. But it might transfer between humans before too long. That is why so many scientists are concerned right now.

Many things would be very deadly if they made a jump to humans. Flu is particularly known for such jumps. I don't see that this particular one presents a threat that much above baseline, though--the baseline is always high.

I have posted several links. The opinion of very experienced scientists who specialize in viral diseases and immunology seem to have a very different opinion from yours. I certainly hope you are right that this virus won't become a serious pandemic, but I do wonder why you seem to be blowing the possibility off. Most are saying not to panic, but to be concerned.

There are currently two vaccines but they have not been put into mass production. As you may know, there have been two very serious cases of bird flu, one in the US and one in Canada. And, I also read that a man caught it from cows but his wife also caught it and it's not known if she got it from her husband. So, it's possible that it can spread by human transmission. We just don't know for sure yet.

Other nations have been very critical of the US for not doing more about this virus. That was my point and that is why I am a bit concerned about the possibility of this becoming a serious pandemic. Did you read all of the details in the links? What exactly do you disagree with and why?

Loren, you’ve replied to a post that cited a large number of actual professionals in the relevant field with “ but *I* don’t think so”.

Can you outline why anyone should even read a post like that, let alone believe it? Why do you think all of these experts in the relevant field know lass than you do?

You say you don’t think this jump risk is “above baseline”. Why? Is it because of the multiple thousands of herds that are affected that you think is normal even while the experts say it is not? Is it because you think the application of normal practices on some farms are not working as they usually do (per the cited articles) that you think is normal while the experts say it is not? Do you think it is not a cause of concern that the Flu regularly makes the jump to humans and that this animal flu is present in, unusually, many different states in thousands of herds attended by thousands of migrant workers that will not result in a more widespread than usual outbreak?


Tell us. What makes your opinion more salient than the cited experts?

But you see some scientific studies are wrong and therefore he is right, and his non-scientific opinion is superior.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But you see some scientific studies are wrong and therefore he is right, and his non-scientific opinion is superior.

What everyone seems to be missing is that I'm saying flu is always a high risk, it's just usually we aren't paying attention to it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/h5n1-response-12232024.html

The above link goes into a lot of detail about the virus and about the patient with the severe case.

The remainder of the genetic sequences of A/Louisiana/12/2024 were closely related to sequences detected in wild bird and poultry D1.1 genotype viruses, including poultry identified on the property of the patient, providing further evidence that the human case was most likely infected following exposure to birds infected with D1.1 genotype virus.

Follow Up Actions

Overall, CDC considers the risk to the general public associated with the ongoing U.S. HPAI A(H5N1) outbreak has not changed and remains low. The detection of a severe human case with genetic changes in a clinical specimen underscores the importance of ongoing genomic surveillance in people and animals, containment of avian influenza A(H5) outbreaks in dairy cattle and poultry, and prevention measures among people with exposure to infected animals or environments.

So, the CDC still considers the risk to the public to be low, but it does appear as if the virus is mutating in humans who have been infected. Something to watch for sure.

The viruses are usually mutating. It is a reasonably safe lottery however. It takes a lot for everything to go just right to get to the pandemic stage. There is a reason why these things aren't very common. But monitoring is very important... even if it triggers some people.

It was quite something when Omicron popped out and spread across the globe in months. It was a horror virus movie in real life, regarding contagion, but thankfully it wasn't as deadly. Though it did take its toll on our health workers.

 

[Elixir]

Sometimes I think a good old fashioned plague pandemic is just what we need. Reduce the global population by 80%, and everyone (who survives) lives happily ever after for a couple or few generations before they re-over-populate the planet again.
If the plague could selectively target Teh Stoopid, that would be great.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The viruses are usually mutating. It is a reasonably safe lottery however. It takes a lot for everything to go just right to get to the pandemic stage. There is a reason why these things aren't very common. But monitoring is very important... even if it triggers some people.

Exactly. You keep an eye on it. The important factor is how well it transmits between humans. It's not something that creeps towards danger, it's something that strikes if we roll a couple of natural 1s together.

It was quite something when Omicron popped out and spread across the globe in months. It was a horror virus movie in real life, regarding contagion, but thankfully it wasn't as deadly. Though it did take its toll on our health workers.

The original strain spread across the world in months, also. Omicron's claim to fame was that it defeated most precautions that worked reasonably well against the versions before.

Sometimes I think a good old fashioned plague pandemic is just what we need. Reduce the global population by 80%, and everyone (who survives) lives happily ever after for a couple or few generations before they re-over-populate the planet again.
If the plague could selectively target Teh Stoopid, that would be great.

An 80% kill in a short time frame is basically a 100% kill. Too many holes poked in society, the survivors couldn't make it work. We've already seen it happen with the Old World plagues that devastated the New World. Many groups died out because the survivors were lacking in some essential skill. The more advanced the technology the more such essential skills there are.

 

[Elixir]

An 80% kill in a short time frame is basically a 100% kill. Too many holes poked in society, the survivors couldn't make it work.

Depends what “it” is. Leaving a few pockets of tens of millions would certainly suffice to ensure the survival of the species. If you mean pick right up where technology left off, then yeah it will take a long time. That’s the point. We might not have a long time otherwise.

Supposedly the Toba eruption left a few tens of thousands from whom we all descended … or do I have my genetic bottle necks confused? Anyhow … I think HSS could easily survive 99.9% eradication without much risk of extinction, as long as the environment was still mostly okay. (Depending on the geographic distribution of the survivors)

 

[bilby]

An 80% kill in a short time frame is basically a 100% kill. Too many holes poked in society, the survivors couldn't make it work.

The 1340s don't agree.

Large parts of Europe suffered 90+% morbidity, with 65+% mortality; In the context of a world where many people lived in hamlets with only a dozen or so adult inhabitants, this basically meant that many survivors saw almost every person they knew die, and were almost all gravely ill themselves for a week or two before they recovered. Many must have died for want of anyone to bring them water, when they were incapacitated and unable to draw it for themselves.

Nevertheless, no skills seem to have disappeared from Western Europe, and though many villages and even towns were abandoned, the survivors gathered together, and kept society going, albeit on a far smaller scale than before.

Pre-industrial societies are very robust. If your village blacksmith (or any other essential craftsman) dies, one will likely come from the next village, where he was one of only a handful of survivors.

The pandemic of 1347-51 caused massive disruption to what was previously a very heirarchical and rigid society. A boy born in 1300 would follow in his father's footsteps, with very few other options available. A smith's son would become a smith, a weaver's son would become a weaver; the idea that a boy might become more important or of higher rank than his father was almost unthinkable - with the exception of those who became clergymen, as the church couldn't practice patrilineal inheritance due to the prohibition on marriage by priests.

Widespread social mobility outside the church was a new concept in the wake of the pandemic; The enlightenment was, in many ways, a direct consequence of people suddenly being able to gain status by merit, rather than by birth, in the wake of the Blue Fever*.









* 'Blue Fever' was the contemporary name for the pandemic; The name 'Black Death' wasn't coined until a few centuries later.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

An 80% kill in a short time frame is basically a 100% kill. Too many holes poked in society, the survivors couldn't make it work.

Depends what “it” is. Leaving a few pockets of tens of millions would certainly suffice to ensure the survival of the species. If you mean pick right up where technology left off, then yeah it will take a long time. That’s the point. We might not have a long time otherwise.

1) No reason it would leave functional pockets.

2) A few tens million very well might not be able to survive. Most of those survivors have no idea of how to survive in a non-tech environment, nor access to what's needed even if they knew how to use it. The vast majority of plants we eat won't grow without fertilizer. And you won't have fertilizer. The ancient varieties that would grow without are mostly gone. And even if they're in a seed bank somewhere can people get to them? And note that you're specifying a population beyond the carrying capacity of the planet, let alone any area on it.

Supposedly the Toba eruption left a few tens of thousands from whom we all descended … or do I have my genetic bottle necks confused? Anyhow … I think HSS could easily survive 99.9% eradication without much risk of extinction, as long as the environment was still mostly okay. (Depending on the geographic distribution of the survivors)

Primitive society, there's not a lot of roles that must be filled and thus a much smaller viable population.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

An 80% kill in a short time frame is basically a 100% kill. Too many holes poked in society, the survivors couldn't make it work.

The 1340s don't agree.

Large parts of Europe suffered 90+% morbidity, with 65+% mortality; In the context of a world where many people lived in hamlets with only a dozen or so adult inhabitants, this basically meant that many survivors saw almost every person they knew die, and were almost all gravely ill themselves for a week or two before they recovered. Many must have died for want of anyone to bring them water, when they were incapacitated and unable to draw it for themselves.

Low tech, most everyone was pretty much interchangeable.

Pre-industrial societies are very robust. If your village blacksmith (or any other essential craftsman) dies, one will likely come from the next village, where he was one of only a handful of survivors.

Maybe.

 

[Elixir]

No reason it would leave functional pockets.

The fact that people reproduce makes TWO
people a potentially functional “pocket”.
There is no reason to think a few thousand would be non-viable.

2) A few tens million very well might not be able to survive. Most of those survivors have no idea of how to survive in a non-tech environment, nor access to what's needed even if they knew how to use it.

DUDE! If there’s only a few million left, they already “learned how to survive”. 99.9% have fucking died of whatever it is and the ensuing sickness and famine. These are the exceptional survivalists, by definition.
duh!

The Primitive society, there's not a lot of roles that must be filled and thus a much smaller viable population.

Yah. Estimates run at around 100,000 individuals survived the genetic bottleneck. And they are us. All 8 billion of us. We survived, went forth and multiplied outa control. That’s why in my scenario billions died and there’s only a few million left, representing a more than viable population in any scenario where the whole planet isn’t molten or an iceball.

ETA: also probably non viable if you spread 10 million survivors of hypothetical cataclysm perfectly evenly over the entire landmass of the globe. Someone here should be able to figure out what the distance between individuals would be in that case - something like 6 sq mi per person, in area. That might be right up your alley, Loren

Point is, there’s a lot of ways the cookie can crumble, and a population of 8+ billion might be more of a threat to species survival than a population of 8 million, or even 8 thousand. Or 8.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

No reason it would leave functional pockets.

The fact that people reproduce makes TWO
people a potentially functional “pocket”.
There is no reason to think a few thousand would be non-viable.

I'm not talking about from a biological standpoint. I'm talking about from a skills standpoint.

2) A few tens million very well might not be able to survive. Most of those survivors have no idea of how to survive in a non-tech environment, nor access to what's needed even if they knew how to use it.

DUDE! If there’s only a few million left, they already “learned how to survive”. 99.9% have fucking died of whatever it is and the ensuing sickness and famine. These are the exceptional survivalists, by definition.
duh!

Few of those survivalists are remotely prepared for a non-tech life.

 

[southernhybrid]

I found an updated article about bird flu this morning and since I still have some free articles to share, read it if you'd like the latest information on bird flu.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/27/...e_code=1.sU4.oMvt.bmL7g3t_UUiI&smid=url-share

The most worrisome thing to me is if RFKjr. gets approved, we won't be at all ready for this if it does become a pandemic. Actually, even without him, we won't be ready if it becomes a pandemic.

When bird flu first struck dairy cattle a year ago, it seemed possible that it might affect a few isolated herds and disappear as quickly as it had appeared. Instead, the virus has infected more than 900 herds and dozens of people, killing one, and the outbreak shows no signs of abating.

A pandemic is not inevitable even now, more than a dozen experts said in interviews. But a series of developments over the past few weeks indicates that the possibility is no longer remote.

Toothless guidelines, inadequate testing and long delays in releasing data — echoes of the missteps during the Covid-19 pandemic — have squandered opportunities for containing the outbreak, the experts said.

In one example emblematic of the disarray, a few dairy herds in Idaho that were infected in the spring displayed mild symptoms for a second time in the late fall, The New York Times has learned. In mid-January, the Department of Agriculture said that no new infections in Idaho herds had been identified since October. But state officials publicly discussed milder cases in November.

 

[TomC]

I found an updated article about bird flu this morning and since I still have some free articles to share, read it if you'd like the latest information on bird flu.

HEY!
Bird flu is no worse than a cold. We'll have the country open again by Easter!
I've got a bottle of ivermectin in a bathroom drawer, Do You?

Crowds cheering.
Tom

 

[Shadowy Man]

The cases will very soon be zero.

 

[southernhybrid]

I found an updated article about bird flu this morning and since I still have some free articles to share, read it if you'd like the latest information on bird flu.

HEY!
Bird flu is no worse than a cold. We'll have the country open again by Easter!
I've got a bottle of ivermectin in a bathroom drawer, Do You?

Crowds cheering.
Tom

I think JFKjr. said all we need to do is drink raw milk as it will help us build up our immune systems, especially if we do it while disecting a whale's head.

 

[crazyfingers]

Risking double posting, the CDC is not allowed to even talk to WHO.

Post in thread 'Well... it's Trump... again. #47, here we go.'

Jan 27, 2025

The hasn't just taken the US out of the World Health Organization (WHO), but had forbidden staff at the CDC from even talking to WHO staff.

According to an email sent from CDC’s deputy director for global health to staff Monday morning, “effective immediately all CDC staff engaging with WHO through technical working groups, coordinating centers, advisory boards, cooperative agreements or other means — in person or virtual — must cease their activity and await further guidance.”

The memo continued: “Please ensure your impacted staff receive this message. CDC detailees to...

• crazyfingers

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I found an updated article about bird flu this morning and since I still have some free articles to share, read it if you'd like the latest information on bird flu.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/27/...e_code=1.sU4.oMvt.bmL7g3t_UUiI&smid=url-share

The most worrisome thing to me is if RFKjr. gets approved, we won't be at all ready for this if it does become a pandemic. Actually, even without him, we won't be ready if it becomes a pandemic.

When bird flu first struck dairy cattle a year ago, it seemed possible that it might affect a few isolated herds and disappear as quickly as it had appeared. Instead, the virus has infected more than 900 herds and dozens of people, killing one, and the outbreak shows no signs of abating.

A pandemic is not inevitable even now, more than a dozen experts said in interviews. But a series of developments over the past few weeks indicates that the possibility is no longer remote.

Toothless guidelines, inadequate testing and long delays in releasing data — echoes of the missteps during the Covid-19 pandemic — have squandered opportunities for containing the outbreak, the experts said.

In one example emblematic of the disarray, a few dairy herds in Idaho that were infected in the spring displayed mild symptoms for a second time in the late fall, The New York Times has learned. In mid-January, the Department of Agriculture said that no new infections in Idaho herds had been identified since October. But state officials publicly discussed milder cases in November.

Be ready? For what? If you don't test it will just fade away!

 

[Shadowy Man]

Be ready? For what? If you don't test it will just fade away!

If there’s no testing there are no cases, right?